Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[OnionTerror]

 

Have to make some choices soon.

How much and how long can the EU subsidise EU/ROI fishing fleet/packers...Can Macron/ROI take the political heat from fishing communities...how far can we go to change quotas...cheaper to rescue EU fishermen than budge on deal, or not?

 

 

Barnier to talk to some EU fisheries ministers on Friday on UK trade deal | Reuters

[IMHAL]

 

Poorer overall. Missed that bit?

The optics is the reality.

Optics don't pay the bills, works for a short time. Can' stave off reality for long.

Edited November 26, 2020 by IMHAL

[pig]

 

I'm talking about FTAs with other nations. Read the words. Smaller scale deals will inevitably throw up some benefits.

Poorer overall. Read the words.

Standup? If you don't know by now that much of this is about the optics around success in or out of the bloc then I can't help you.

 

 

 

Well here's Liz Truss getting an absolute roasting over the much trumpeted UK-Japan Deal.

Apparently by the Govs own assessments we should have simply rolled over the provisions in the EU-Japan Deal.

 

 

[thehowler]

 

 

Well here's Liz Truss getting an absolute roasting over the much trumpeted UK-Japan Deal.

Apparently by the Govs own assessments we should have simply rolled over the provisions in the EU-Japan Deal.

 

 

What were you expecting?

[thehowler]

 

Optics don't pay the bills, works for a short time. Can' stave off reality for long.

When is it going to settle down, IMHAL? When do you expect the UK to stop negotiating with the EU?

[OnionTerror]

 

 

Well here's Liz Truss getting an absolute roasting over the much trumpeted UK-Japan Deal.

Apparently by the Govs own assessments we should have simply rolled over the provisions in the EU-Japan Deal.

 

 

 

[pig]

Blimey - what's going on around here ?

Anyway, a picture is a thousand words and all that - welcome to Global England.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/brexit-new-ferry-freight-route-opens-between-france-and-ireland/ar-BB1brB2N

[rollover]

Oh dear oh dear!

No-deal Brexit is the UK’s biggest economic threat, not Covid

Reducing our ability to trade has real consequences for productivity and the cost of living. This week, the OBR has confirmed its view that the long-term, permanent drag on the UK economy, compared with continued EU membership, will be 4 per cent of gross domestic product, assuming that the negotiations go well and the substantial, practical changes involved in ending the transition period go smoothly.

An analysis of a no-deal scenario shows a further permanent deterioration in the economy of almost 2 per cent on top of the 4 per cent loss already assumed.

FT

Edited November 29, 2020 by rollover

[miguel]

Well this week I'm £3.5K poorer (not all profit but a lot is). Customer in Germany pulled out because he would have to pay 19% import VAT. Gone and I won't get it back. It will go to someone else in the EU. 

Yours, from a psspoor shthole in the north of England. 

Edited November 29, 2020 by miguel

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

 

Oh dear oh dear!

No-deal Brexit is the UK’s biggest economic threat, not Covid

Reducing our ability to trade has real consequences for productivity and the cost of living. This week, the OBR has confirmed its view that the long-term, permanent drag on the UK economy, compared with continued EU membership, will be 4 per cent of gross domestic product, assuming that the negotiations go well and the substantial, practical changes involved in ending the transition period go smoothly.

An analysis of a no-deal scenario shows a further permanent deterioration in the economy of almost 2 per cent on top of the 4 per cent loss already assumed.

FT

I’m investing in reels of red tape!

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

... and in wooden spikes for those Brexit cheerleaders/conspirators.

 

 

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

I know it has been said before:

Remember when Camorron said "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband". Just take a second to think about that and review recent history... now ironiclly now we are nearing the last days of the UK union.

 

 

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

Sounds to me like the deal is going to happen.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55120814

Edited November 29, 2020 by Gigantic Purple Slug

[Bob8]

 

I know it has been said before:

Remember when Camorron said "Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband". Just take a second to think about that and review recent history... now ironiclly now we are nearing the last days of the UK union.

 

 

[Megadebt]

 I'm wondering, is this all just an illusion of playing hardball ,when behind the scenes sources suggest the deal is pretty much done, now just 'fishing for compliments' on how well we outsmarted the EU negitiators,and that Boris ensured no Brussels eurocrat will ever prevent the workng man from having his fish and chips. 

 Any other alternative seems unthinkable,that we are really on the cusp of a hostile no deal.  

This has been like watching a train wreck in slow motion right from 2015. I so much wanted to be wrong on this.  If this all works out good in the end, I will literally eat my hat.

[thehowler]

 

Blimey - what's going on around here ?

Anyway, a picture is a thousand words and all that - welcome to Global England.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/brexit-new-ferry-freight-route-opens-between-france-and-ireland/ar-BB1brB2N

24 hours in a cabin. Weather permitting. Same as flying to Oz.

No land bridge will be tough for ROI, and add substantially to haulage costs. And no fault of their own.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

 

 I'm wondering, is this all just an illusion of playing hardball ,when behind the scenes sources suggest the deal is pretty much done, now just 'fishing for compliments' on how well we outsmarted the EU negitiators,and that Boris ensured no Brussels eurocrat will ever prevent the workng man from having his fish and chips. 

 Any other alternative seems unthinkable,that we are really on the cusp of a hostile no deal.  

This has been like watching a train wreck in slow motion right from 2015. I so much wanted to be wrong on this.  If this all works out good in the end, I will literally eat my hat.

It's not just one side. Both sides will want to take it to the wire because that's the way you demonstrate the best deal possible has been struck. I don't think either side will claim they "outsmarted" the other - it's not good politics. Just that they got the best deal possible under the circumstances. Which is what everyone wants to hear.

It will neither work out as good as some people claim, nor as bad as some others do, but somewhere inbetween. That's part of the problem of taking a polarised/extreme viewpoint, because extreme outcomes are generally the least likely to happen.

The current deals are just a stepping point to greater independence and mitigation of the step change. It will be in years to come when the power of the UK to negotiate in its own interest becomes more apparent and allows us to do deals that are more beneficial. For the moment we are still very much in transition.

[OnionTerror]

 

24 hours in a cabin. Weather permitting. Same as flying to Oz.

No land bridge will be tough for ROI, and add substantially to haulage costs. And no fault of their own.

It'll be quicker than off at Holyhead, then across to Dover / Folkestone, then onto the continent..

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

 

24 hours in a cabin. Weather permitting. Same as flying to Oz.

No land bridge will be tough for ROI, and add substantially to haulage costs. And no fault of their own.

Haven't really kept up with the debate, but back in the day there was a land corridor between west germany and berlin.

Couldn't they be offered something similar ? All you would need to do is make sure the trucks are customs sealed, a bit like a bonded warehouse on wheels. Or is this me being naive and opening a massive can of worms ?

Edit : Actually I got it. They only need to do this if there is no deal. And if there is no deal then the UK is hardly likely to want to give them a land corridor FOC.

Edited November 29, 2020 by Gigantic Purple Slug

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

 

It'll be quicker than off at Holyhead, then across to Dover / Folkestone, then onto the continent..

Yes, but surely it is a function of both volume and time, not just the time.

The volume will be massively reduced unless there is a (giant) fleet of ferries.

Edited November 29, 2020 by Gigantic Purple Slug

[rollover]

 

Haven't really kept up with the debate, but back in the day there was a land corridor between west germany and berlin.

Couldn't they be offered something similar ? All you would need to do is make sure the trucks are customs sealed, a bit like a bonded warehouse on wheels. Or is this me being naive and opening a massive can of worms ?

Edit : Actually I got it. They only need to do this if there is no deal. And if there is no deal then the UK is hardly likely to want to give them a land corridor FOC.

The post-Brexit long queues and slow-moving traffic, it's not worth the hassle.

[OnionTerror]

 

Yes, but surely it is a function of both volume and time, not just the time.

The volume will be massively reduced unless there is a (giant) fleet of ferries.

Ministers Welcome New Direct Route to Mainland Europe to Increase Maritime Connectivity (afloat.ie)

There's more capacity coming online all the time...

[24gray24]

I get the feeling it's a done deal apart from a sell out on fish. 

The only issue is whose? Macron seems to be in as awkward position as boris. 

Worse even, as he's getting far more than he should at the moment. 

[thehowler]

 

Haven't really kept up with the debate, but back in the day there was a land corridor between west germany and berlin.

Couldn't they be offered something similar ? All you would need to do is make sure the trucks are customs sealed, a bit like a bonded warehouse on wheels. Or is this me being naive and opening a massive can of worms ?

Edit : Actually I got it. They only need to do this if there is no deal. And if there is no deal then the UK is hardly likely to want to give them a land corridor FOC.

Yeah, vision of Irish plates zooming past miles of lorries doesn't go down well with the UK negotiators.

Not that it's ROI's fault. I imagine the UK were always hoping ROI would cut a deal with them first, then go to the EU, but ROI struck early and placed their bets with the EU. I wish them well.

It will be in years to come when the power of the UK to negotiate in its own interest becomes more apparent and allows us to do deals that are more beneficial.

Have to agree with this - or at least, this is the Brexit hope.

On another note, thanks to DB for the Ivan Rogers link...now vanished due to the site crash.

It's worth watching the whole thing on youtube - spectator tv 60 mins - and if you go to 57:50 you'll see him saying that any UK govt he worked with, Labour or Tory, would have vetoed the recent EU fund package. He goes on to say that the inter-governmental deal to get around Cameron was when Cameron realized he had to go for the referendum. And that's one of the ploys they - the EU - are now considering to get around the Hungarian/Poland veto.

The ref, or some kind of reckoning was inevitable...and the Brit public still choose the waves.

 

[24gray24]

The brexiters think they're getting all the fish back and throwing all the immigrants out. 

There is going to be trouble when they find out they've been sold out...