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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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Do none of the remainers believe the Euro will collapse?

That seems to be one thing they all have in common. 

(And which distinguishes them from some brexiteers)

I don't know if the Euro will collapse or not. What I do know is the brexiters have a cult-like belief in the badness of the EU and also it's imminent collapse. It is generally a safe bet to take the opposite view to cultists.

 

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I don't know if the Euro will collapse or not. What I do know is the brexiters have a cult-like belief in the badness of the EU and also it's imminent collapse. It is generally a safe bet to take the opposite view to cultists.

 

Christians were cultists. Muslims were cultists. Both were quite successful. 

I really don't agree that the brexit rank and file have the views you ascribe to them. Their main concerns were 1. Immigrants and 2. Kick the government. 

It would change remainers views if they thought the Euro was a suicide pact. So they have to assume that it won't.  

I think there might be a problem with the less efficient economies in Europe being driven into bankruptcy by the strait jacket of the Euro and at the same time the germans not wanting to pay the Italians debts. 

The mechanism by which this could rear its ugly head is if (for example) the Italian state became unable to service its national debt and the germans wouldn't or couldn't bail them out. 

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Christians were cultists. Muslims were cultists. Both were quite successful. 

I really don't agree that the brexit rank and file have the views you ascribe to them. Their main concerns were 1. Immigrants and 2. Kick the government. 

You don't have to convince me about those two reasons. But in order to justify leaving the EU more reasons were invented to create a bit more of an argument other than "the immigrants". These reasons get increasingly contrived and cult-like, and usually make no sense, as you would expect when they're being invented.

 

I think there might be a problem with the less efficient economies in Europe being driven into bankruptcy by the strait jacket of the Euro and at the same time the germans not wanting to pay the Italians debts. 

The mechanism by which this could rear its ugly head is if (for example) the Italian state became unable to service its national debt and the germans wouldn't or couldn't bail them out. 

It could indeed be a problem. We already saw this happen with Greece, so it could happen again. 

But then, economies outside of the Euro all over the world have crashed before and it had nothing to do with a single currency. So would you accept that there are many more reasons involved and just blaming the EU is a bit single minded and... cult-like.

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Semantically, correct, but the ROI is part of the EU.

Doing something that would, of itself, be illegal in response to someone else's illegal activity can often be legal. That's the position the ROI would be in. I would anticipate the USA being receptive to this, as would international courts.

Because the UK is closer and the level of trade higher, thus not having dynamic alignment is more damaging and the EU doesn't have to accept anything less.

ROI is a sovereign state and the former/future Taoiseach has made a commitment in the Irish seat of parliament that he will not impose border checks. You need to address this point - raised up thread - before we can make any progress.

And ROI has every right to challenge EU edicts. They are already in advanced legal dispute over an alleged breach of EU state aid concerning the Apple tax billions.

Regards your comment on legality, I think all parties would have to show that the UK are guilty beyond appeal before taking any action that risks invalidating the GFA. To be clear, it is the ROI that would be closing the border - not the US or the EU - and it's very hard to predict how the people of NI would react to this.

On full scale DA in the current FTA talks, Frost won't sign up to it, in my view. I've always found the proximity argument specious, we're still separated by a major sea channel/tunnel and the EU could raise any dispute that might arise with an independent arbitrator. Johnson might sack his lead Brexit negotiator in the last days of talks, go back on his manifesto, outrage most of his MPs and reanimate Farage but I think it's unlikely.

The deal on offer appears too scanty to be worth the political cost of accepting DA.

 

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It would change remainers views if they thought the Euro was a suicide pact. So they have to assume that it won't.  

I think there might be a problem with the less efficient economies in Europe being driven into bankruptcy by the strait jacket of the Euro and at the same time the germans not wanting to pay the Italians debts. 

The mechanism by which this could rear its ugly head is if (for example) the Italian state became unable to service its national debt and the germans wouldn't or couldn't bail them out. 

This is ridiculous hyperbolic language. Define "collapse" and "suicide pact". If Greece had accepted leaving the Eurozone as the German finance minister suggested, would that have constituted the "collapse" of the Euro?

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You don't have to convince me about those two reasons. But in order to justify leaving the EU more reasons were invented to create a bit more of an argument other than "the immigrants". These reasons get increasingly contrived and cult-like, and usually make no sense, as you would expect when they're being invented.

It could indeed be a problem. We already saw this happen with Greece, so it could happen again. 

But then, economies outside of the Euro all over the world have crashed before and it had nothing to do with a single currency. So would you accept that there are many more reasons involved and just blaming the EU is a bit single minded and... cult-like.

Blaming the eu isn't what people are doing, in my view. Most people quite like the eu. 

The problem is the perception that Europe is being pushed into an ever closer union centred in Brussels and strasburg. 

Ceasing to be Belgians and Spanish and Italian and becoming a new type of human being, euro man. 

Too much ever closer union and too little subsidiarity. That plus the Euro problem.

The first wasn't such a great problem. It could have been solved and still might be. But it wasn't the reason ordinary people voted brexit. 

In other words Frost could have turned up to day one of the negotiations with a complete list of what's wrong with Europe,  and half the countries might have agreed with him. 

 

 

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This is ridiculous hyperbolic language. Define "collapse" and "suicide pact". If Greece had accepted leaving the Eurozone as the German finance minister suggested, would that have constituted the "collapse" of the Euro?

What would happen is that the deutsch mark would be reissued and all German euro accounts would be converted onto it. I think a 100bn euros a year are transferred by southern europeans into german bank accounts. It seems others have thought of this.

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This is ridiculous hyperbolic language. Define "collapse" and "suicide pact". If Greece had accepted leaving the Eurozone as the German finance minister suggested, would that have constituted the "collapse" of the Euro?

Suicide pact is a quote from someone like schiff or keen or someone. 

Yes, it's a vivid and striking phrase. That's why he picked it. 

The question is whether it's true, not whether we like the tone.  

Greece leaving the Euro survives. Greece,then spain then italy... you see the problem. That's one reason they didn't want greece to leave.

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Suicide pact is a quote from someone like schiff or keen or someone. 

Yes, it's a vivid and striking phrase. That's why he picked it. 

The question is whether it's true, not whether we like the tone.  

Greece leaving the Euro survives. Greece,then spain then italy... you see the problem. That's one reason they didn't want greece to leave.

The German finance minister did want Greece to leave. It was Greece that didn't want to leave.

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The German finance minister did want Greece to leave. It was Greece that didn't want to leave.

That is the opposite of the German government's position, and of Brussels.  

It would have been better for the Greeks if they had left the Euro.  Many wanted to.  

But instead the greek government collaborated with the German government's diktat and brussels' diktat,  and they ended up with the troika leaching the greeks into destituition for the benefit of creditors for many years. 

It's not all sweetness and light if your country goes bankrupt inside the Euro  (and maybe because of the euro)... which brings us back to the problem of the Italian national debt, which is fast approaching a level where it becomes impossible to pretend any longer it will be repaid... 

And then we have another crisis. But this time, and unlike greece, it can't be bailed out. 

The Italian banks are insolvent as well aren't they?

So while the remainers are sure the UK will be worse off, they have simply assumed that Europe won't have any serious problems of its own.  

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But instead the greek government collaborated with the German government's diktat and brussels' diktat,  and they ended up with the troika leaching the greeks into destituition for the benefit of creditors for many years. 

Ah this old crap. Typical brexiter.

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Ah this old crap. Typical brexiter.

Happens to be true. 

The Greeks were pretty desperate at one stage, literally hungry. 

Remainers have to brush these problems under the carpet, otherwise brexit might start looking more like getting off the titanic and into the life raft. 

No good complaining the liferaft isn't up to the standards in the first class lounge incidentally,  which remainers do incessantly. 

 

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That is the opposite of the German government's position, and of Brussels.  

It would have been better for the Greeks if they had left the Euro.  Many wanted to.  

But instead the greek government collaborated with the German government's diktat and brussels' diktat,  and they ended up with the troika leaching the greeks into destituition for the benefit of creditors for many years. 

It's not all sweetness and light if your country goes bankrupt inside the Euro  (and maybe because of the euro)... which brings us back to the problem of the Italian national debt, which is fast approaching a level where it becomes impossible to pretend any longer it will be repaid... 

And then we have another crisis. But this time, and unlike greece, it can't be bailed out. 

The Italian banks are insolvent as well aren't they?

So while the remainers are sure the UK will be worse off, they have simply assumed that Europe won't have any serious problems of its own.  

I don't see the logic of the argument. The UK wasn't in the Euro, so in the event of a major crisis, the only thing we will have gained is not having any seat at the table to determine the outcome.

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Happens to be true. 

The Greeks were pretty desperate at one stage, literally hungry. 

Remainers have to brush these problems under the carpet, otherwise brexit might start looking more like getting off the titanic and into the life raft. 

No good complaining the liferaft isn't up to the standards in the first class lounge incidentally,  which remainers do incessantly.

So according to this metaphor, Germany is currently on the Titanic?

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So according to this metaphor, Germany is currently on the Titanic?

In this metaphor we have to stick them all in somewhere.  Greece is locked down below decks in steerage presumably, or is it stoking the boilers?

Germany could be capn f e Smith and the sailing crew, or sitting in the first class lounge. 

 

 

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I don't see the logic of the argument. The UK wasn't in the Euro, so in the event of a major crisis, the only thing we will have gained is not having any seat at the table to determine the outcome.

Plus not having the bill. 

Wasn't that partly what the referendum was about? We were expected to vote "yes" after all, and then what?

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Bill for what? Your crisis scenario is predicated on Italy not being bailed out.

Quite. But they can't let italy starve. 

So although the Euro doesn't survive,  there's still going to be a massive cost for all the disruption.

And a lot of them could end up a lot poorer. 

You end up with the germans sitting comfortably in the liferafts while the rest are swimming in this metaphor. 

Hard to imagine the eu wouldn't have handed us a bill had we remained in that situation. 

 

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Quite. But they can't let italy starve. 

So although the Euro doesn't survive,  there's still going to be a massive cost for all the disruption.

And a lot of them could end up a lot poorer. 

You end up with the germans sitting comfortably in the liferafts while the rest are swimming in this metaphor. 

Hard to imagine the eu wouldn't have handed us a bill had we remained in that situation.

How do you arrive at the conclusion that the Euro doesn't survive in that scenario? If Italy decided to go back to its own currency, why would anyone else follow suit?

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Happens to be true. 

It is a misrepresentation.

Can you explain why Ireland had to undergo austerity measures? Can you explain why the IMF imposes austerity measures as conditions of any bailout? It is the norm. But brexiters seized the norm and weaponised it against the EU. Because you're all dishonest.

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How do you arrive at the conclusion that the Euro doesn't survive in that scenario? If Italy decided to go back to its own currency, why would anyone else follow suit?

Italy in euro. 

Italy unable to pay its debts. 

Germany refuses to put italy's debts onto Europe as a whole. 

Italy's still in the Euro at this point. 

Italians might start getting hungry. Banks start looking rocky; bank runs. Losses start accumulating in banks that leant Italian banks money. 

Full blown banking crisis. 

Germans start refusing to take Italian euros. They only take german ones. 

Pretty soon you've got german euros and the rest. 

Sorting out italy then means either a) Germany takes on the Italian debts or b) italy leaves eurozone. 

If Italy leaves (probably not the only one) Germany gets less and less advantage from euro. 

If it stays Italy starts depopulating if unless germans start sending money every year. 

Something like that. 

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Germans start refusing to take Italian euros. They only take german ones. 

Pretty soon you've got german euros and the rest.

This is a fantasy. A Euro is a Euro. If any people have strange ideas about physical cash that was issued by Italy then it would be a simple matter to replace it, like when a note is withdrawn from circulation in the UK.

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It is a misrepresentation.

Can you explain why Ireland had to undergo austerity measures? Can you explain why the IMF imposes austerity measures as conditions of any bailout? It is the norm. But brexiters seized the norm and weaponised it against the EU. Because you're all dishonest.

We're talking about greece not ireland. 

The IMF represent creditors.

They impose austerity measures to try and extract the most for the creditors that they can. 

I'm not dishonest. Neither am I stupid. 

The creditors are not acting for the benefit of the bankrupt. They're not doing them a favour as you suppose. They are there to extract as much out of the population for the benefit of the creditors as they possibly can. 

That's just how it works. 

 

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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