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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Permanently?  The UK, as a third country being able to circumvent single market controls?

It's NI, Dave. Special circs. And air/sea port checks ROI/EU would be enough to keep SM secure.

The US have come into the row because of Irish links but AFAIK no other nation state has commented.

But we're going to get a FTA anyway...aren't we?

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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It's NI, Dave. Special circs. And air/sea port checks ROI/EU would be enough to keep SM secure.

The US have come into the row because of Irish links but AFAIK no other nation state has commented.

But we're going to get a FTA anyway...aren't we?

So with the UK's decision to leave, they are effectively erecting barriers to the single market for ROI?

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Another misapprehension.

I just want a deal. Always have. No mystery.

Leavers could be a wrong word here. In a strict sense it means people voting to leave the EU. 

I meant people whose views are driven English nationalism, which I think is the core signature of Leavers. You seem to have a problem with looking at the situation from other people perspective. 

The question is why you want a deal.  For me it looks like you are desperately trying to save Brexit. This is another reason I would put you in a Leavers' camp as you want to keep the UK outside of the EU.  

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Canada rollover came in today. CETA - though I think we miss out on some of the EU quotas - and move to agree a bespoke deal next year.

Brit trade negotiators doing their best.

Ahh I see, so lots of room for improvement with the CETA deal but this sub-optimal arrangement was perfectly acceptable for our negotiators for the UKs relationship with the far larger and more important EU. Or was all that carping about "we just want a Canada style deal" with the implicit message of "but they wont let us have one" just a load of BS to make Brexiters feel the perpetual victims?

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Leavers could be a wrong word here. In a strict sense it means people voting to leave the EU. 

I meant people whose views are driven English nationalism, which I think is the core signature of Leavers. You seem to have a problem with looking at the situation from other people perspective. 

The question is why you want a deal.  For me it looks like you are desperately trying to save Brexit. This is another reason I would put you in a Leavers' camp as you want to keep the UK outside of the EU.  

There is no option to keep the UK in the EU at the moment. That's all long gone.

Deal with what we have, deal or no deal.

You, I think, want the UK to fail and be seen to fail because of it's Brexit choice, I am more forgiving. I think a FTA is less damaging to the UK and the EU than no deal.

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Ahh I see, so lots of room for improvement with the CETA deal but this sub-optimal arrangement was perfectly acceptable for our negotiators for the UKs relationship with the far larger and more important EU. Or was all that carping about "we just want a Canada style deal" with the implicit message of "but they wont let us have one" just a load of BS to make Brexiters feel the perpetual victims?

Yes, it was and is a load of BS.

The UK/EU deal will be nothing like the Canada deal.

Let's hope it's good enough so it doesn't all fall to pieces within six months or so.

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What did being part of the EU ever do for the pie eating Northerners...

https://www4.shu.ac.uk/research/cresr/sites/shu.ac.uk/files/cresr30th-jobs-welfare-austerity.pdf

When they tried making the point FOM was adversely affecting their quality of life, they were just shouted down as racists. When they complained their jobs were being outsourced to eastern Europe and beyond, they were just shouted down as racists, or given trite replies from their MPs of "Can't do owt, soz, EU rules innit", which hardly helped in building positivity towards the increasing political union. Bigot-gate Brown proved what contempt the Westminster elite held them in. 

Makes me laugh all those remainers who suddenly pretended to care about manufacturing after June 2016, when they didn't give a toss about all those who had lost their jobs and were chucked on the incapacity scrap heap for a couple of decades prior, nor the negative impacts on their kids future prospects. All of a sudden it became "oh no, Nissan/Airbus/BMW are threatening to leave, manufacturing will be destroyed in this country, the horror the horror". Those are a mere drop in the ocean compared to what had already gone before.

So no surprise really that when the long overdue opportunity came to vote for change and increased accountability, they did so. Only the dumb would have voted otherwise. Perhaps if remainer types and the Westminster elite had engaged a little bit more with the "thick racists", rather than just mock them instead, we might have had a better outcome all round. Cest la vi, vive les tartes 🙂 

Aren't most immigrants in the South. 

When I go back to see the parents up North, i am always amazed at, (in the local I frequent to get away from the subtropical temperatures maintained in my parent house) the amount of time and effort devoted to moaning about EU immigrants despite there being far fewer than down South. 

As for jobs, it was just as bad, worse probably when I left Uni in the early 80s. No FoM and no jobs either.  The vote was a vote against unwanted changes, even if that "change" was based upon a largely imagined golden past. 

Cameron's inability to see that the referendum would become a lightening conductor for every grievance going probably qualifies him for the position of dumbest voter. 

Edited by Confusion of VIs
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Who is putting up a wall?

And what's this "they" business?

This air of superiority is comical.

If the UK creates the need for a wall, I think the ROI/EU will have to put checks in immediately. Maybe light touch at first but they need to establish the principle.

if they leave it 6-12 months they will be seen as unilaterally putting up an unnecessary wall. 

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If the UK creates the need for a wall, I think the ROI/EU will have to put checks in immediately. Maybe light touch at first but they need to establish the principle.

if they leave it 6-12 months they will be seen as unilaterally putting up an unnecessary wall. 

The EU would most initiate GATT 21 first...but that would only be an interim measure...

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/gatt_ai_e/art21_e.pdf

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It's NI, Dave. Special circs. And air/sea port checks ROI/EU would be enough to keep SM secure.

The US have come into the row because of Irish links but AFAIK no other nation state has commented.

But we're going to get a FTA anyway...aren't we?

How long is negotiating and agree a FTA going to take in case of no-deal scenario?

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There is no option to keep the UK in the EU at the moment. That's all long gone.

Deal with what we have, deal or no deal.

You, I think, want the UK to fail and be seen to fail because of it's Brexit choice, I am more forgiving. I think a FTA is less damaging to the UK and the EU than no deal.

Do you prefer rejoining the EU over being outside?

Edited by slawek
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How would they? If something was passed off as an ROI product, how could you tell it wasn't?

You couldn't for goods coming into the UK via NI border, that would be on the UK. Anything entering the SM from ROI would have been passed by an ROI customs agent, checked en route or on arrival in EU.

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Do you prefer rejoining the EU over being outside?

My hope is that a FTA is the first step to some kind of re-entry, yes, though I can't guess what form that will take and have no idea how many years out it could be.

Very hard to predict how the UK is going to shift and settle in the next five to ten years but I imagine we'll be poorer.

One thing I'm certain of is that our old form of membership is gone.

Best possible FTA seems a sensible ambit to me, deliberately opting for more harm strikes me as extremely unwise.

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Aren't most immigrants in the South. 

When I go back to see the parents up North, i am always amazed at, (in the local I frequent to get away from the subtropical temperatures maintained in my parent house) the amount of time and effort devoted to moaning about EU immigrants despite there being far fewer than down South. 

As for jobs, it was just as bad, worse probably when I left Uni in the early 80s. No FoM and no jobs either.  The vote was a vote against unwanted changes, even if that "change" was based upon a largely imagined golden past. 

Cameron's inability to see that the referendum would become a lightening conductor for every grievance going probably qualifies him for the position of dumbest voter. 

Cameron's dumbest move was to get Obama involved. 

Obama "You'll go to the back of the queue". British voters "We'll see about that" 🖕.

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The idea that the EU is going to damage the SM to make Brexit easier is very unlikely to come to fruition. Perhaps there will be some temporary checks to avoid the UK becoming a smuggler's haven, but unless the UK relents and puts the border in the Irish Sea then things are likely to get very ugly for the UK. I have to wonder if this is intentional as it will allow those that wish to complain about a 'bullying EU' to point the finger for something the UK would be doing. The EU could put in NI-ROI checks and would get a pass on the GFA due to the actions of the UK government leading to a force of a technical breach. The UK would be in deep trouble.

In terms of the EU-Japan deal, UK-Japan and EU-UK deals, the LPF arrangements that have been discussed, or at least what has been leaked and linking that back to the text of the EU-Japan deal, it all sounds very similar, with a similar dispute mechanism. Whilst the EU-Japan or UK-Japan deals don't technically contain dynamic alignment if alignment ever diverged much then the dispute mechanism would get invoked, so it's not really so much different. But the IMB undermines the UK-Japan deal which has not yet been ratified by the Japanese Parliament as I am aware (the UK parliament no longer gets a say: taking back control!) and if the IMB becomes the IMA then there is a chance it won't get through as the Japanese parliament may consider it to have been negotiated in bad faith. Or maybe they will assume that the IMB/A is just designed as a wrecking tactic for UK-EU negotiations.

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Cameron's dumbest move was to get Obama involved. 

Obama "You'll go to the back of the queue". British voters "We'll see about that" 🖕.

It was just a statement of reality, though, as the EU is a major economic force in the way that the UK, alone, is not. The EU has a level of deal with USA and the UK nothing.

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My hope is that a FTA is the first step to some kind of re-entry, yes, though I can't guess what form that will take and have no idea how many years out it could be.

I'd say at least 10 but more like 20 years for England on a basis like Switzerland which would be the only thing on offer for an economy of the size of England. The UK probably won't exist by that point, though. Scotland will be in EFTA, NI will be part of ROI. Wales - not sure as it's political structures are more tightly tied to England's and there isn't a remain/rejoin majority there at present AFAIK.

As I see it, the only minimal chance of saving the UK as an entity would be a Swiss-style deal with FoM, SM, CU, etc., within 5 years, and that seems pretty unlikely.

Edited by NobodyInParticular
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On Cameron, I don't think he expected to actually have to have a referendum. He promised one but I suspect that another coalition government would allow him to blame the Lib Dems for there not being one and kick the can down the road. Since support for the EU (measured by polls) had been increasing over time then if that can had been kicked out to 2021 then the vote may have gone differently. Even then, he might have been assuming Labour would have campaigned for something in the run up.

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Aren't most immigrants in the South. 

When I go back to see the parents up North, i am always amazed at, (in the local I frequent to get away from the subtropical temperatures maintained in my parent house) the amount of time and effort devoted to moaning about EU immigrants despite there being far fewer than down South. 

As for jobs, it was just as bad, worse probably when I left Uni in the early 80s. No FoM and no jobs either.  The vote was a vote against unwanted changes, even if that "change" was based upon a largely imagined golden past. 

Cameron's inability to see that the referendum would become a lightening conductor for every grievance going probably qualifies him for the position of dumbest voter. 

There are a lot in the populations centres, even in cheap to live in, very poor areas, like Preston (where my daughter lives). The locals reckoned there were no jobs fit for humans, then migrants showed up and did even those. It has caused huge resentment, not the migrants per say but the symbolism of the future that the kind of work aspirations they have represent. That and the owner of the chain of car washes who sits in a Jag, smoking a cigar and telling them all about the benefts of membership.

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There are a lot in the populations centres, even in cheap to live in, very poor areas, like Preston (where my daughter lives). The locals reckoned there were no jobs fit for humans, then migrants showed up and did even those. It has caused huge resentment, not the migrants per say but the symbolism of the future that the kind of work aspirations they have represent. That and the owner of the chain of car washes who sits in a Jag, smoking a cigar and telling them all about the benefts of membership.

I would agree.

A small number of immigrants to an area can also have a dramatic impression. Twenty odd years ago, I came across a Frenchman in St Helens. It was a genuinely surprising thing. That it would not be surprising in the least now is a large shift.

Then you have Boston, that was similarly homogenous and similar in manys ways to Preston. Now, Polish, Portuguese and Lithuanian are very common. The young people are used to it, many most older folk are very alientated.

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The idea that the EU is going to damage the SM to make Brexit easier is very unlikely to come to fruition. Perhaps there will be some temporary checks to avoid the UK becoming a smuggler's haven, but unless the UK relents and puts the border in the Irish Sea then things are likely to get very ugly for the UK. I have to wonder if this is intentional as it will allow those that wish to complain about a 'bullying EU' to point the finger for something the UK would be doing. The EU could put in NI-ROI checks and would get a pass on the GFA due to the actions of the UK government leading to a force of a technical breach. The UK would be in deep trouble.

In terms of the EU-Japan deal, UK-Japan and EU-UK deals, the LPF arrangements that have been discussed, or at least what has been leaked and linking that back to the text of the EU-Japan deal, it all sounds very similar, with a similar dispute mechanism. Whilst the EU-Japan or UK-Japan deals don't technically contain dynamic alignment if alignment ever diverged much then the dispute mechanism would get invoked, so it's not really so much different. But the IMB undermines the UK-Japan deal which has not yet been ratified by the Japanese Parliament as I am aware (the UK parliament no longer gets a say: taking back control!) and if the IMB becomes the IMA then there is a chance it won't get through as the Japanese parliament may consider it to have been negotiated in bad faith. Or maybe they will assume that the IMB/A is just designed as a wrecking tactic for UK-EU negotiations.

The EU won't be putting any checks in place on the NI-ROI border. It would be for the ROI govt to do this. This would likely result in collapse of the current coalition govt and another election with additional factors then in play.

I don't share your view that the people of NI/ROI will give the EU a "free pass" on the GFA if the ROI govt act to shut the border. I'm not sure the US would be appreciative either.

If dynamic alignment is largely similar to the existing CETA and EU-Japan deals then I can't see why you think the EU have any grounds to insist on it for the FTA with the UK.

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The EU won't be putting any checks in place on the NI-ROI border. It would be for the ROI govt to do this. This would likely result in collapse of the current coalition govt and another election with additional factors then in play.

Semantically, correct, but the ROI is part of the EU.

 

I don't share your view that the people of NI/ROI will give the EU a "free pass" on the GFA if the ROI govt act to shut the border. I'm not sure the US would be appreciative either.

Doing something that would, of itself, be illegal in response to someone else's illegal activity can often be legal. That's the position the ROI would be in. I would anticipate the USA being receptive to this, as would international courts.

 

If dynamic alignment is largely similar to the existing CETA and EU-Japan deals then I can't see why you think the EU have any grounds to insist on it for the FTA with the UK.

Because the UK is closer and the level of trade higher, thus not having dynamic alignment is more damaging and the EU doesn't have to accept anything less.

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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