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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Your argument is flawed, and on many levels, in my view. The UK will not be putting up a border NI/ROI. And Varadkar - still in power in ROI - has undertaken not to, as I have shown.

Who is going to erect a hard border NI/ROI?

And many unionists dispute the idea that border checks would automatically invalidate the GFA.

There is no way to avoid a border NI/ROI if there is no border NI/GB. That is the reality. 

The ROI/EU would need to create one to protect themselves and comply with the international obligations. 

What unionists say doesn't matter. A border NI/ROI is a problem for Irish. They will feel unhappy and treat the GFA as invalid. You need both sides to uphold an agreement.   

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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The real core of the GFA was that it allows people in NI to pretend they are either Irish or British, whichever is their preference. Membership of the EU allowed this even if it is not implicitly stated, due to the border issue. Of course, outside of the EU, with the correct agreements, the UK and Ireland could have done the same, but Ireland are not leaving the EU, the UK is.

Brexiters who go on about the legal text are just doing what brexiters do, always looking for an escape route to justify their views. The UK leaving the EU is going to push the hard won GFA to breaking point and maybe beyond. And every outside country is going to see the UK as the ones who took the actions to do so, because that is the truth and they don't have 40 years of right wing hate mail tabloid propaganda influencing them to believe otherwise.

 

No to pretend. It gives them the right. And it also gives them the right to identify as Northern Irish, a three part liberty.

What legal text are you reffing here?

As I've said, not everyone in NI agrees with the interpretation that the open border is sacrosanct in the GFA. Views are divided on this but my own take is that you're right, border controls NI/ROI would put intense pressure on the GFA.

However, I still don't see who is going to erect border posts. There's a chance ROI will do but Varadkar is on record saying he won't do it, which means the end of the coalition.

I also think you're sidestepping the fact that there was cross-Community support in the last few weeks saying the proposed EU checks GB-NI are not fit for purpose. This will have a huge bearing on developments, as I don't think the US could ignore a cross-Community appeal.

Much of this could be avoided if we get a cloaking FTA in the next few weeks.

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A border between NI/ROI will invalidate the GFA compromise that NI is effectively part of both the UK and ROI. A new deal would need to be sought reflecting the situation where the UK is outside CM/CU and in breach of the solution negotiated in WA. Irish won't be happy paying for Brexit, a problem created by the UK. Unhappy Irish means unhappy the US and the EU.        

There are a myriad of possibilities between here and 31/12. But I know one ting. If there is no deal agreed after 31/12 the UK is going to continue its campaign of optics and will NOT be seen as the one to erect the hard border.

Of course, other countries will see the reality but I promise you, the UK is not going to be putting a border up between NI and ROI. As a fervent (and probably disliked) remainer, I've been saying this for years. The one area where everyone thinks the UK is screwed is the border, but it isn't quite how they understand. The UK can just not do anything and let the legalities unfold. It will take years. And the end of it, almost everyone will want a fudge. 

It won't do anything positive for the UK's standing in the world but on the other hand, if they're taking the no deal approach I doubt they'll care.

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There is no way to avoid a border NI/ROI if there is no border NI/GB. That is the reality. 

The ROI/EU would need to create one to protect themselves and comply with the international obligations. 

What unionists say doesn't matter. A border NI/ROI is a problem for Irish. They will feel unhappy and treat the GFA as invalid. You need both sides to uphold an agreement.   

This is inflammatory and reveals your complete misunderstanding of the GFA and the current situation, in my view.

You also keep repeating that there is no way to avoid a border NI-ROI but you fail to say who will impose it.

Which only reinforces my original point that if the ROI-EU must have a border, as you suggest, it would be politically expedient to have it between ROI ports/airports and the EU. I can't see why the US would object to that either.

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There are a myriad of possibilities between here and 31/12. But I know one ting. If there is no deal agreed after 31/12 the UK is going to continue its campaign of optics and will NOT be seen as the one to erect the hard border.

Of course, other countries will see the reality but I promise you, the UK is not going to be putting a border up between NI and ROI. As a fervent (and probably disliked) remainer, I've been saying this for years. The one area where everyone thinks the UK is screwed is the border, but it isn't quite how they understand. The UK can just not do anything and let the legalities unfold. It will take years. And the end of it, almost everyone will want a fudge. 

It won't do anything positive for the UK's standing in the world but on the other hand, if they're taking the no deal approach I doubt they'll care.

The UK of course won't but the EU/ROI will have to and they and the US won't be very happy about it.  

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No to pretend. It gives them the right. And it also gives them the right to identify as Northern Irish, a three part liberty.

What legal text are you reffing here?

As I've said, not everyone in NI agrees with the interpretation that the open border is sacrosanct in the GFA. Views are divided on this but my own take is that you're right, border controls NI/ROI would put intense pressure on the GFA.

However, I still don't see who is going to erect border posts. There's a chance ROI will do but Varadkar is on record saying he won't do it, which means the end of the coalition.

I also think you're sidestepping the fact that there was cross-Community support in the last few weeks saying the proposed EU checks GB-NI are not fit for purpose. This will have a huge bearing on developments, as I don't think the US could ignore a cross-Community appeal.

Much of this could be avoided if we get a cloaking FTA in the next few weeks.

You should be aware of what I've been saying for about four years now. There are different angles to this. The legal texts I refer to is the GFA. Brexiters often make use of this when it comes to talk of a border, saying there is no explicit mention of this in the text. Ok, technically true, but no-one is going to care about that. You're correct, the situation in NI legally allows citizens to be Irish or British, or both. But it is more than the legalities, it is about human feelings. Putting a land border down the middle of the Irish country is going to feel wrong to those who choose to be Irish. The sea border, likewise, though I suspect less so.

I know for sure if there is no deal, the UK will not be the ones to erect border posts. Why would they? There is literally no gain for the UK.

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You should be aware of what I've been saying for about four years now. There are different angles to this. The legal texts I refer to is the GFA. Brexiters often make use of this when it comes to talk of a border, saying there is no explicit mention of this in the text. Ok, technically true, but no-one is going to care about that. You're correct, the situation in NI legally allows citizens to be Irish or British, or both. But it is more than the legalities, it is about human feelings. Putting a land border down the middle of the Irish country is going to feel wrong to those who choose to be Irish. The sea border, likewise, though I suspect less so.

I know for sure if there is no deal, the UK will not be the ones to erect border posts. Why would they? There is literally no gain for the UK.

SPS checks within border control posts on continental Europe from traffic from ROI to continental EU would satisfy the need not to have a border, but it has been argued that it cuts out ROI from the single market for goods.  Would that satisfy the US?  I suspect so, as it means that no border infrastructure is required, although it would jeopardise ROI's standing within the single market.

...although whilst this is the case, the EU wont sign a future FTA with the UK were that to occur..

Its a difficult conundrum.

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This is inflammatory and reveals your complete misunderstanding of the GFA and the current situation, in my view.

You also keep repeating that there is no way to avoid a border NI-ROI but you fail to say who will impose it.

Which only reinforces my original point that if the ROI-EU must have a border, as you suggest, it would be politically expedient to have it between ROI ports/airports and the EU. I can't see why the US would object to that either.

How is that? GFA was a compromise. Brexit invalidates it. The fact that one side (unionists) is happy about the change doesn't matter for the fact that the compromise is no longer valid. As I said both sides need to be happy, it is logical AND. I haven't made a general claim that unionist view doesn't matter at all. 

The EU/ROI will have to create a border. 

I don't see ROI agreeing to a border ROI/EU. That is your fantasy. Brexit was the UK decision and ROI would feel very unhappy about paying for this themselves. They will feel that that negative consequences of Brexit should be borne by the UK since Brexit was its decision.  The US is a ROI friend and they will object what ROI will object.     

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You should be aware of what I've been saying for about four years now. There are different angles to this. The legal texts I refer to is the GFA. Brexiters often make use of this when it comes to talk of a border, saying there is no explicit mention of this in the text. Ok, technically true, but no-one is going to care about that. You're correct, the situation in NI legally allows citizens to be Irish or British, or both. But it is more than the legalities, it is about human feelings. Putting a land border down the middle of the Irish country is going to feel wrong to those who choose to be Irish. The sea border, likewise, though I suspect less so.

I know for sure if there is no deal, the UK will not be the ones to erect border posts. Why would they? There is literally no gain for the UK.

This is a crucial point. I hear that some - partic the young - in NI are now identifying as "Northern Irish" in a way that didn't happen during the Troubles and in recent years. Whether this develops into a desire to identify as a citizen not rooted to either ROI or the UK - while still having full access to their rights/passports - is moot and will evolve in coming years. I also hear old loyalists saying they want the UK to find a new future post-Brexit - a bit sunny uplands, I feel - though they voted remain. They might come to value the higher ambit of the EU more and ponder change. But I hear very little overt pro-unification talk, though this all anecdotal and personal to me, of course.

Key thing is that the solution/future will come from voices within Ireland, as you suggest - not from crass and clumsy interventions.

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Who is putting up a wall?

And what's this "they" business?

This air of superiority is comical.

You are still talking shit and playing dumb.

After four years, I am not sureyou are playing.

****.

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SPS checks within border control posts on continental Europe from traffic from ROI to continental EU would satisfy the need not to have a border, but it has been argued that it cuts out ROI from the single market for goods.  Would that satisfy the US?  I suspect so, as it means that no border infrastructure is required, although it would jeopardise ROI's standing within the single market.

...although whilst this is the case, the EU wont sign a future FTA with the UK were that to occur..

Its a difficult conundrum.

 

Plus the EU would help to fund/support ROI and compensate.

Post-Brexit, ROI has no land border with the EU.

But this is all worst case.

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Plus the EU would help to fund/support ROI and compensate.

Post-Brexit, ROI has no land border with the EU.

But this is all worst case.

No border at all, anywhere, puts the single market in jeopardy.. Every other third country would be wanting the same access over time..

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How is that? GFA was a compromise. Brexit invalidates it. The fact that one side (unionists) is happy about the change doesn't matter for the fact that the compromise is no longer valid. As I said both sides need to be happy, it is logical AND. I haven't made a general claim that unionist view doesn't matter at all. 

The EU/ROI will have to create a border. 

I don't see ROI agreeing to a border ROI/EU. That is your fantasy. Brexit was the UK decision and ROI would feel very unhappy about paying for this themselves. They will feel that that negative consequences of Brexit should be borne by the UK since Brexit was its decision.  The US is a ROI friend and they will object what ROI will object.     

Slawek, let it go.

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The GFA talks about identifying as British, Irish, or both, not as Northern Irish.

There is life beyond the confines of the GFA text.

Life's all a work of imagination.

Say you're 20, you live in Belfast, you can be ROI, UK...or you can be Northern Irish. Maybe you feel proud of being from Belfast, but not in a UK-flag-waving way, or in a ROI kinda way.

You might not want to be defined by the decades of violence and misery that have affected so many in the UK vs Irish ideology and that mostly happened before you were born.

Maybe you want a third thing.

And what's wrong with that?

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This is a crucial point. I hear that some - partic the young - in NI are now identifying as "Northern Irish" in a way that didn't happen during the Troubles and in recent years. Whether this develops into a desire to identify as a citizen not rooted to either ROI or the UK - while still having full access to their rights/passports - is moot and will evolve in coming years. I also hear old loyalists saying they want the UK to find a new future post-Brexit - a bit sunny uplands, I feel - though they voted remain. They might come to value the higher ambit of the EU more and ponder change. But I hear very little overt pro-unification talk, though this all anecdotal and personal to me, of course.

Key thing is that the solution/future will come from voices within Ireland, as you suggest - not from crass and clumsy interventions.

Brexit is a game changer. Even those people who identify as NIs prefer to join ROI in case of the UK leaving the EU.

image.thumb.png.ffacdb066199c5f5a04ba40172b040f0.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland

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There is life beyond the confines of the GFA text.

Life's all a work of imagination.

Say you're 20, you live in Belfast, you can be ROI, UK...or you can be Northern Irish. Maybe you feel proud of being from Belfast, but not in a UK-flag-waving way, or in a ROI kinda way.

You might not want to be defined by the decades of violence and misery that have affected so many in the UK vs Irish ideology and that mostly happened before you were born.

Maybe you want a third thing.

And what's wrong with that?

I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it, just that there is no right to such an identity.

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There is life beyond the confines of the GFA text.

Life's all a work of imagination.

Say you're 20, you live in Belfast, you can be ROI, UK...or you can be Northern Irish. Maybe you feel proud of being from Belfast, but not in a UK-flag-waving way, or in a ROI kinda way.

You might not want to be defined by the decades of violence and misery that have affected so many in the UK vs Irish ideology and that mostly happened before you were born.

Maybe you want a third thing.

And what's wrong with that?

Nothing wrong with it, except that AIUI the one thing militant nationalists and the Republic of Ireland have always been agreed upon, is that there is no such thing as a seperate Northern Irish identity. They will not countenance it.

People there are either Irish or British living in Ireland.

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Slawek, let it go.

I didn't start it.

TBH I try to avoid you. You are one of last Leavers on this thread and you have endangered specie status for me. I don't think it would be fair to gang up on you but that doesn't mean I agree with you.

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Nothing wrong with it, except that AIUI the one thing militant nationalists and the Republic of Ireland have always been agreed upon, is that there is no such thing as a seperate Northern Irish identity. They will not countenance it.

People there are either Irish or British living in Ireland.

You're right, that was always the way. Maybe the dam is breaking.

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I didn't start it.

TBH I try to avoid you. You are one of last Leavers on this thread and you have endangered specie status for me. I don't think it would be fair to gang up on you but that doesn't mean I agree with you.

Another misapprehension.

I just want a deal. Always have. No mystery.

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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