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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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They might have already done this. How would we know?

Crumbs from their table.

https://www.ft.com/content/560e9bd2-b54a-415c-9f0b-c72f5dd2c124

This was the basic sticking point..

"With less than six months to go to the end of the transition, EU negotiators are growing increasingly impatient at Boris Johnson’s failure to set out his plans for a domestic subsidy regime and provide concrete reassurance that the UK does not intend to unfairly undercut EU economies."

AFAIK, The UK saw this as a moveable feast...

Edited by Dave Beans
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https://www.ft.com/content/560e9bd2-b54a-415c-9f0b-c72f5dd2c124

This was the basic sticking point..

"With less than six months to go to the end of the transition, EU negotiators are growing increasingly impatient at Boris Johnson’s failure to set out his plans for a domestic subsidy regime and provide concrete reassurance that the UK does not intend to unfairly undercut EU economies."

AFAIK, The UK saw this as a moveable feast...

Can't open the article - I don't subscribe - but from the quote it looks as though it's from back in the summer. Long, long ago.

From my glancings the FT strikes me as having a resolute Brexit-bad agenda, lacking any objectivity on the subject.

I thought the sticking point currently was the ratchet - no recourse dynamic alignment - not state aid, which has been consigned to the dustbin following the Cummings box-hugging photo op.

"concrete reassurances"...Ho Ho Ho.

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Can't open the article - I don't subscribe - but from the quote it looks as though it's from back in the summer. Long, long ago.

From my glancings the FT strikes me as having a resolute Brexit-bad agenda, lacking any objectivity on the subject.

I thought the sticking point currently was the ratchet - no recourse dynamic alignment - not state aid, which has been consigned to the dustbin following the Cummings box-hugging photo op.

"concrete reassurances"...Ho Ho Ho.

After a quick glance, this is from October...

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-willing-to-write-state-aid-principles-into-brexit-deal/

EU negotiators have reduced their ask for alignment, but still want Britain to set out what its regime will look like and what a regulation and dispute process would entail, amid fears the U.K. could undercut its firms.

Appearing before the House of Lords European Union committee, Frost insisted the U.K. would not set out detail, but said the two sides were discussing whether it was possible “to go further than you normally do in an FTA and agree some provisions that shape and condition the subsidy policy on both sides.”

He said that would involve high-level principles such as how state aid grants must contribute to market failure, be transparent and not have negative effects on trade and investment.

He also admitted that the U.K. could benefit from a dispute resolution process to challenge EU state aid decisions. “I can quite see us being ready to use them just as much as the EU in future,” he said. “Other EU countries subsidize quite often more than we do and that could definitely have an impact on us.”

Frost also refused to spell out what progress would be needed for Britain to continue talks after the October 15 European Council summit — which Boris Johnson has set as a deadline for a deal. He said he would advise the prime minister on progress in the run-up to the summit.

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That all sounds fair, apart from the "swift retaliatory measures" which wholly undermine the rationale of an arbitration body.

I've long thought that's the bit they'll drop for the token compromise, as it seems absurd and unworkable. How do you arbitrate when one side has already taken punitive and costly action? Will there be refunds?

Where is the ratchet though? That's the only contentious issue - if it's still in play?

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That all sounds fair, apart from the "swift retaliatory measures" which wholly undermine the rationale of an arbitration body.

I've long thought that's the bit they'll drop for the token compromise, as it seems absurd and unworkable. How do you arbitrate when one side has already taken punitive and costly action? Will there be refunds?

Where is the ratchet though? That's the only contentious issue - if it's still in play?

As Frost said above, it works both ways...

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As Frost said above, it works both ways...

That's true, it's long-past time for the UK to drop the ideology and start boxing clever.

A lot of it is just both sides being po-faced, pedantic and too proud - "why should we?". It's four years ago, would be good to crack on.

I think the EU budget drama probably helps the UK case - in a week of such strange and giddy swings - to lose one high level crucial agreement might be misfortune, to lose two begins to look like carelessness.

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That's true, it's long-past time for the UK to drop the ideology and start boxing clever.

A lot of it is just both sides being po-faced, pedantic and too proud - "why should we?". It's four years ago, would be good to crack on.

I think the EU budget drama probably helps the UK case - in a week of such strange and giddy swings - to lose one high level crucial agreement might be misfortune, to lose two begins to look like carelessness.

Budget drama? The Poles and Hungarians are just kicking the tyres! The very idea that either of them would walk away from a share of €750 billion seems preposterous to me. But even if they do, there are work-arounds.

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/the-eus-credibility-is-at-stake/

The European Parliament has made it clear that it will not accept any amendments to the draft. “These nationalistic, populist positions and unanimity are the grave-diggers of the EU,” said Othmar Karas, the Vice-President of the European Parliament who asked for the exclusion of Orban’s Fidesz-party from the European People’s Party.

Fortunately, the budget for 2021 has already been adopted. It contains innovations, including more money for future areas such as digitalization and climate protection. If Poland and Hungary retain their veto, this budget could be prolonged annually.

The €750 billion COVID aid package could possibly be decoupled from the EU budget. In that case, such support through joint borrowing could only be decided for 24 countries – without Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. It is a more laborious path, but possibly the only one, as the EU’s credibility as a global player is at stake.

 

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Budget drama? The Poles and Hungarians are just kicking the tyres! The very idea that either of them would walk away from a share of €750 billion seems preposterous to me. But even if they do, there are work-arounds.

 

I thought the EP were narked about cuts to Erasmus potential, science and learning and other areas. Perception was that the rescue fund had cut into EP interests - as recognized by VDL.

The EU budget agreed by national leaders will be a "difficult pill to swallow" and they made "regrettable and painful decisions" by cutting funding for important programs, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told MEPs Thursday.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-budget-deal-a-difficult-pill-to-swallow-ursula-von-der-leyen-tells-angry-meps-mff-recovery-fund-package-vote/

That said, they're getting shafted on clear and conspicuous diligence on the UK/EU deal too, not being given enough time.

Bof.

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Agree....It's an age old ploy...blame the other. The EU will get the full brunt of it from the conservatives when the ill effects of Brexit start to materialise. Sadly, many will lap it up without seeing that it was their own decision to led to this. In fact, in many ways it will reinforce their belief that they where right all along. This is a rabbit hole that will take up many years to climb out of and it will set us back substantially.

This is true.  Like CEOs and execs that fk up companies and governments stuff up economies they will have someone or something else to blame. In this case, its obvious, the EU will be to blame and the current  Tory mindset aligned with the majority right wing media will help them form that opinion.  They will never realise it was themselves that sh*t in their own shoes when they came home drunk from Wetherspoons.

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This is true.  Like CEOs and execs that fk up companies and governments stuff up economies they will have someone or something else to blame. In this case, its obvious, the EU will be to blame and the current  Tory mindset aligned with the majority right wing media will help them form that opinion.  They will never realise it was themselves that sh*t in their own shoes when they came home drunk from Wetherspoons.

They will never realise it was themselves that sh*t in their own shoes when they came home drunk from Wetherspoons and blame their neighbour for ever more.

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Yes, it's unlikely and of course undesired. That doesn't stop it being one of the possible outcomes if the UK refused to check goods coming into NI per EU regs.

It's been raised and discussed and rejected over the last four years. Read some of the Irish papers, I ref them now and again but usually get criticized for being diversionary.

My guess - for what else is any of this - is that the EU would look the other way for the first six months. Bear in mind that any actions by the EU would impact on the remain-voting citizens of NI. The UK would not impose NI/ROI border controls and would argue that to do so would breach the GFA. ROI would then face a choice of whether to keep the Ni/ROI border open, impose checks at said border or impose checks at their ports/airports.

 

 

I can see the UK ignoring the border and putting the onus/blame on the EU to act. However, I can't see the consequences of that being good for the UK.

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I can see the UK ignoring the border and putting the onus/blame on the EU to act. However, I can't see the consequences of that being good for the UK.

It is going to be ROI/EU/US vs UK. I think ROI/EU will introduce a border between ROI/NI, which will upset a fragile balance in NI and lead to NI reunification with ROI ultimately. 

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It is going to be ROI/EU/US vs UK. I think ROI/EU will introduce a border between ROI/NI, which will upset a fragile balance in NI and lead to NI reunification with ROI ultimately. 

You might be right on NI border controls before ROI/EU checks...ROI have introduced limited road checks around the border to make sure people aren't breaking covid restrictions, think they did it during the big foot and mouth outbreak too.

But this is a very emotive issue and if there is cross-community outrage in NI I don't see how the Americans could support it.

Also, I don't see how you could have a unification ref with the border already shut. It would be seen as treachery by unionists to have the threat of the border hanging over the vote. More likely we'd get into protracted legal/trade dispute with the EU while the border stays open, as others have suggested. (It's also worth bearing in mind that the NI border is impossible to police.)

Varadkar is a key member of the current ROI govt coalition and will be Taoiseach again half way through the term. He's on the record, in the Irish house, promising there will be no hard border, under any circumstance.

Would not be an easy call. Let's hope we get a deal that mitigates a lot of the frictions.

 

 

 

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You might be right on NI border controls before ROI/EU checks...ROI have introduced limited road checks around the border to make sure people aren't breaking covid restrictions, think they did it during the big foot and mouth outbreak too.

But this is a very emotive issue and if there is cross-community outrage in NI I don't see how the Americans could support it.

Also, I don't see how you could have a unification ref with the border already shut. It would be seen as treachery by unionists to have the threat of the border hanging over the vote. More likely we'd get into protracted legal/trade dispute with the EU while the border stays open, as others have suggested. (It's also worth bearing in mind that the NI border is impossible to police.)

Varadkar is a key member of the current ROI govt coalition and will be Taoiseach again half way through the term. He's on the record, in the Irish house, promising there will be no hard border, under any circumstance.

Would not be an easy call. Let's hope we get a deal that mitigates a lot of the frictions.

 

 

 

You still don't understand. It is going to be ROI/US/EU vs UK. The US will fully and rightly blame the UK for the situation putting a pressure on it to comply with WA, not ROI/EU to remove NI/ROI border.

The mess in NI will lead to increased anti-UK sentiment. The escalation of the conflict will lead to another GFA and a referendum about NI status.  

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You still don't understand. It is going to be ROI/US/EU vs UK. The US will fully and rightly blame the UK for the situation putting a pressure on it to comply with WA, not ROI/EU to remove NI/ROI border.

The mess in NI will lead to increased anti-UK sentiment. The escalation of the conflict will lead to another GFA and a referendum about NI status.  

There may also be a shift from the UK landbridge to access from France.  When the UK ports are in chaos, supplies could well come up through France / Netherlands, straight through ROI into NI... NI becomes more reliant on its southern neighbour...

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The north of England voted for this sh1tshow because they are all ugly retards.

Best just cut them lose and turn them into the dumb peasants.....................err "turn them into"? ;)

What did being part of the EU ever do for the pie eating Northerners...

https://www4.shu.ac.uk/research/cresr/sites/shu.ac.uk/files/cresr30th-jobs-welfare-austerity.pdf

When they tried making the point FOM was adversely affecting their quality of life, they were just shouted down as racists. When they complained their jobs were being outsourced to eastern Europe and beyond, they were just shouted down as racists, or given trite replies from their MPs of "Can't do owt, soz, EU rules innit", which hardly helped in building positivity towards the increasing political union. Bigot-gate Brown proved what contempt the Westminster elite held them in. 

Makes me laugh all those remainers who suddenly pretended to care about manufacturing after June 2016, when they didn't give a toss about all those who had lost their jobs and were chucked on the incapacity scrap heap for a couple of decades prior, nor the negative impacts on their kids future prospects. All of a sudden it became "oh no, Nissan/Airbus/BMW are threatening to leave, manufacturing will be destroyed in this country, the horror the horror". Those are a mere drop in the ocean compared to what had already gone before.

So no surprise really that when the long overdue opportunity came to vote for change and increased accountability, they did so. Only the dumb would have voted otherwise. Perhaps if remainer types and the Westminster elite had engaged a little bit more with the "thick racists", rather than just mock them instead, we might have had a better outcome all round. Cest la vi, vive les tartes 🙂 

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You still don't understand. It is going to be ROI/US/EU vs UK. The US will fully and rightly blame the UK for the situation putting a pressure on it to comply with WA, not ROI/EU to remove NI/ROI border.

The mess in NI will lead to increased anti-UK sentiment. The escalation of the conflict will lead to another GFA and a referendum about NI status.  

If they do not understand it these years later, they are ether so genuinely retarded that they do not understand that putting up a wall will mean there is a wall on both sides.

...or they are just taking the piss.

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You still don't understand. It is going to be ROI/US/EU vs UK. The US will fully and rightly blame the UK for the situation putting a pressure on it to comply with WA, not ROI/EU to remove NI/ROI border.

The mess in NI will lead to increased anti-UK sentiment. The escalation of the conflict will lead to another GFA and a referendum about NI status.  

There is no conflict.

I think the idea of another GFA is extremely unlikely and I don't understand why you think the US would back the idea.

 

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There is no conflict.

I think the idea of another GFA is extremely unlikely and I don't understand why you think the US would back the idea.

 

A border between NI/ROI will invalidate the GFA compromise that NI is effectively part of both the UK and ROI. A new deal would need to be sought reflecting the situation where the UK is outside CM/CU and in breach of the solution negotiated in WA. Irish won't be happy paying for Brexit, a problem created by the UK. Unhappy Irish means unhappy the US and the EU.        

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There may also be a shift from the UK landbridge to access from France.  When the UK ports are in chaos, supplies could well come up through France / Netherlands, straight through ROI into NI... NI becomes more reliant on its southern neighbour...

While UK reliant/registered businesses go bust and people lose their jobs...that's why the big NI supermarket chains are worried.

And hence talk already of a six-month grace period for goods GB-NI...extended until when.

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If they do not understand it these years later, they are ether so genuinely retarded that they do not understand that putting up a wall will mean there is a wall on both sides.

...or they are just taking the piss.

Who is putting up a wall?

And what's this "they" business?

This air of superiority is comical.

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A border between NI/ROI will invalidate the GFA compromise that NI is effectively part of both the UK and ROI. A new deal would need to be sought reflecting the situation where the UK is outside CM/CU and in breach of the solution negotiated in WA. Irish won't be happy paying for Brexit, a problem created by the UK. Unhappy Irish means unhappy the US and the EU.        

Your argument is flawed, and on many levels, in my view. The UK will not be putting up a border NI/ROI. And Varadkar - still in power in ROI - has undertaken not to, as I have shown.

Who is going to erect a hard border NI/ROI?

And many unionists dispute the idea that border checks would automatically invalidate the GFA.

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Your argument is flawed, and on many levels, in my view. The UK will not be putting up a border NI/ROI. And Varadkar - still in power in ROI - has undertaken not to, as I have shown.

Who is going to erect a hard border NI/ROI?

And many unionists dispute the idea that border checks would automatically invalidate the GFA.

The real core of the GFA was that it allows people in NI to pretend they are either Irish or British, whichever is their preference. Membership of the EU allowed this even if it is not implicitly stated, due to the border issue. Of course, outside of the EU, with the correct agreements, the UK and Ireland could have done the same, but Ireland are not leaving the EU, the UK is.

Brexiters who go on about the legal text are just doing what brexiters do, always looking for an escape route to justify their views. The UK leaving the EU is going to push the hard won GFA to breaking point and maybe beyond. And every outside country is going to see the UK as the ones who took the actions to do so, because that is the truth and they don't have 40 years of right wing hate mail tabloid propaganda influencing them to believe otherwise.

 

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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