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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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A small minority of headbangers want nothing to do with the EU. The majority of leave voters really only cared about ending freedom of movement. Now that is done the UK could sign up to just about any deal with the EU and 90%+ of leave voters wouldn't notice. The vocal minority are the ones stopping this now.

There is currently an apathy and boredom toward Brexit, at least for now. I do think the debate has evolved, or should I say retrospective justification for ending FoM has now been entrenched and overtaken what was once the main motivation for leaving. I don't think sovereignty and seemingly unqualified unilateral control will be enough to keep leavers on side tho when they realise the price that will have to be paid. This is a long game...and the people will eventually get to see the quality of their decision in how it will impact on their lives relative to our European neighbours.

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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There is currently an apathy and boredom toward Brexit, at least for now. I do think the debate has evolved, or should I say retrospective justification for ending FoM has now been entrenched and overtaken what was once the main motivation for leaving. I don't think sovereignty and seemingly unqualified unilateral control will be enough to keep leavers on side tho when they realise the price that will have to be paid. This is a long game...and the people will eventually get to see the quality of their decision in how it will impact on their lives relative to our European neighbours.

History is littered with reactionary movements against immigration. What has happened here is also known as the "Shy Tory Factor". In just about every interaction with brexiters when delving into the motivations, immigration always comes up. It is the most commonly used reason for brexit even though "Shy Tories" will say it was about sovereignty or laws. When asked what sovereignty and laws they end up back to "controlling our borders".

Therefore now that control of our borders has been "achieved" by ending freedom of movement, as predicted, the vast majority of brexit voters have drifted off and forgotten how much they cared about EU laws, sovereignty and trade deals. I was predicting this years back on this thread.

Now it is just the headbangers left, banging on about never giving in to the evil EU and preventing a reasonable trade agreement.

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History is littered with reactionary movements against immigration. What has happened here is also known as the "Shy Tory Factor". In just about every interaction with brexiters when delving into the motivations, immigration always comes up. It is the most commonly used reason for brexit even though "Shy Tories" will say it was about sovereignty or laws. When asked what sovereignty and laws they end up back to "controlling our borders".

Therefore now that control of our borders has been "achieved" by ending freedom of movement, as predicted, the vast majority of brexit voters have drifted off and forgotten how much they cared about EU laws, sovereignty and trade deals. I was predicting this years back on this thread.

Now it is just the headbangers left, banging on about never giving in to the evil EU and preventing a reasonable trade agreement.

Agree....It's an age old ploy...blame the other. The EU will get the full brunt of it from the conservatives when the ill effects of Brexit start to materialise. Sadly, many will lap it up without seeing that it was their own decision to led to this. In fact, in many ways it will reinforce their belief that they where right all along. This is a rabbit hole that will take up many years to climb out of and it will set us back substantially.

Edited by IMHAL
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Agree....It's an age old ploy...blame the other. The EU will get the full brunt of it from the conservatives when the ill effects of Brexit start to materialise. Sadly, many will lap it up without seeing that it was their own decision to led to this. In fact, in many ways it will reinforce their belief that they where right all along. This is a rabbit hole that will take up many years to climb out of and it will set us back substantially.

Absolutely. Such a shame. I'm in my 40s now but imagine being someone born later and coming to the working world after 2007. All you've known is decisions you never had any part in screw up your financial future and see the older generation continuing to vote for parties who screw you over.

Edited by dugsbody
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Agree....It's an age old ploy...blame the other. The EU will get the full brunt of it from the conservatives when the ill effects of Brexit start to materialise. Sadly, many will lap it up without seeing that it was their own decision to led to this. In fact, in many ways it will reinforce their belief that they where right all along. This is a rabbit hole that will take up many years to climb out of and it will set us back substantially.

Yes, very likely we will be poorer. Problem is Brexit boosters seem to believe that the benefits of Brexit will only emerge after the cut. It's how they brush aside the absence of any plan/proven gains/positive forecasts etc.

You hear very little in our press or from any of our politicians about the benefits of getting a FTA, or engaging with the substance of what's being negotiated.

It's a lonely path to tread, saying you hope the UK/EU can get a FTA before the end of the year.

 

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Yes, very likely we will be poorer. Problem is Brexit boosters seem to believe that the benefits of Brexit will only emerge after the cut. It's how they brush aside the absence of any plan/proven gains/positive forecasts etc.

Well, yes. Jam tomorrow is the cop out.

 

You hear very little in our press or from any of our politicians about the benefits of getting a FTA, or engaging with the substance of what's being negotiated.

Would that be because they would be open to compare relative to the benefits we had whilst we where in the EU. They must think that jam tomorrow is a safer and less damaging message, it has been thus since economists widely disparaged Brexit as an economic disaster.

 

It's a lonely path to tread, saying you hope the UK/EU can get a FTA before the end of the year.

 

A lonely path and a futile one.

In my view it will only be possible to get a proper FTA once both parties assess the relative damage after we have separated proper. It will truly expose the vulnerabilities on both sides. Call it a show of hands. 

Edited by IMHAL
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as you know I think most likely route would be ROI/EU checks, to respect the GFA and keep the NI/ROI border open. Imagine the US would agree.

 

Do you have any references to anyone else in the world talking about a customs border between ROI and EU?

I see it as impossible for the EU to consider, because it would be like a rogue state (the UK) forcing the fragmentation of the single market.

Personally I think we would see US, UN and European armies occupying NI to enforce a customs border in the Irish sea, before we would see the EU voluntarily backing down on the integrity of the single market. But I'm willing to be proved wrong if you can provide credible references apart from your own opinion.

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In my view it will only be possible to get a proper FTA once both parties assess the relative damage after we have separated proper. It will truly expose the vulnerabilities on both sides. Call it a show of hands. 

If you read through this Connelly thread you can see he suggests the EU are mulling a 5/10 year re-evaluation of any deal regards fishing rights, carefully protecting their ability to use their greater size/market as leverage.

In the meantime it would be safer for all to have the vestiges of a trading deal in place, in my view.

 

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If you read through this Connelly thread you can see he suggests the EU are mulling a 5/10 year re-evaluation of any deal regards fishing rights, carefully protecting their ability to use their greater size/market as leverage.

In the meantime it would be safer for all to have the vestiges of a trading deal in place, in my view.

 

A mixed agreement including fishing and aviation will have to go to each of the 27 national parliaments for ratification.  Of course it could be provisionally envoked, but it can also be vetoed..

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Do you have any references to anyone else in the world talking about a customs border between ROI and EU?

I see it as impossible for the EU to consider, because it would be like a rogue state (the UK) forcing the fragmentation of the single market.

Personally I think we would see US, UN and European armies occupying NI to enforce a customs border in the Irish sea, before we would see the EU voluntarily backing down on the integrity of the single market. But I'm willing to be proved wrong if you can provide credible references apart from your own opinion.

Credible references? It's just one of the options available if the border remains open and the EU demand checks that the UK are unwilling to make - you can discount it or consider it from the choice, up to you.

If you think military invasion and annexation of UK territory by foreign forces is more likely than customs checks at ROI ports and airports that's your call too.

I'm intrigued by your use of the term "European armies"...do you mean some sort of alliance of forces invading foreign lands to protect the interests of the SM/EU?

And I don't think the UN would be sending troops. After all, your SM alliance would be attacking an independent nation state over a trade  - non military - offence.

As for the US, I think sending tanks into NI and declaring martial law might well be considered a breach of the GFA - contrary to their stated aim.

All done rather than asking ROI to introduce a few temporary checks on their trading channels...

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A mixed agreement including fishing and aviation will have to go to each of the 27 national parliaments for ratification.  Of course it could be provisionally envoked, but it can also be vetoed..

Unless the EU write into the deal that these are unique circumstances requiring Commission/Member state leader approval only and not setting a precedent.

But yes, it will be a test of the system.

Seems as though they're still talking about transport and security too, the deal might go further than has been leaked lately.

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Do you have any references to anyone else in the world talking about a customs border between ROI and EU?

I see it as impossible for the EU to consider, because it would be like a rogue state (the UK) forcing the fragmentation of the single market.

Indeed, it won't happen. Occupation isn't likely, but a split in the SM? Also unlikely. More likely is that if the UK doesn't put a border in the Irish Sea it will be taken to court. In the meantime interim economic sanctions would be allowable under WTO rules. You'd also see all current putative trade deals collapse. Perhaps some in the UK want the UK to be placed under sanctions as it plays to the 'world outside blessed Albion is bad' narrative, but it would be a dangerous one, and that narrative alone would propel the UK to split up much faster.

 

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Food prices won't change much for six months so don't expect "most of the country" to notice too much until after that.

Shortages affect prices. Supply and demand.

 

Average goods tariff is only about 3% and we're waiving it for six months. Exports will suffer more.

Wow - so either huge amounts of additional borrowing or more austerity as that's 3% loss over all goods from everywhere in the world.

 

It seems to be close to £100 Billion negative for the UK in 2019, offset by services to about £80 Billion negative.

So can anyone tell me why they are so worried about state aid or LPF?

Because the point is to have good governance, and the EU requires it of all deals. Read the EU-Japan deal - if the EU and UK agree a deal comparable to the EU-Japan depth without LPF then the EU has to renegotiate the EU-Japan one (references I posted a while back). So if the UK wants anything other than the skinniest of deals (no deal in all but name) then it needs to agree to LPF and state aid provisions. The EU does not want to be on a march to the bottom, so LPF is required for a deal. The thing is the UK has already agreed to such provisions with Japan that are pretty much identical to the ones Japan has with the EU, so why the issue with the EU? It could copy-and-paste from the EU-Japan or UK-Japan deals and be done with it. It could be done in an afternoon with time for tea at 4pm. So the issues seem to be more designed to achieve only a skinny deal with the EU for some political reason or in the hope that Japan won't notice the UK failing to stick to that deal. The latter would be a mistake as Japan is one of the larger individual economies in the world with significant influence in the Pacific so not sticking to the UK-EU deal mean no entry to the Pacific blocks as is apparently the intention and for which the UK-Japan deal is supposed to be a stepping stone.

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On a rough calculation (3% assumed), 0% tariffs would cost around £20bn a year, or more than twice the net cost of remaining in the EU. There are some error bars, but the 6 month holiday from tariffs will be significant. It will also mean that fully-finished goods and food coming in from anywhere in the world will have an average of 3% advantage over home grown ones, and even more for agricultural products. I expect to see quite a few dairy farms to go to the wall and imported fish will be cheaper at the same time exported fish will be less competitive, so expect the fishing industry to be hit hard too.

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Indeed, it won't happen. Occupation isn't likely, but a split in the SM? Also unlikely. More likely is that if the UK doesn't put a border in the Irish Sea it will be taken to court. In the meantime interim economic sanctions would be allowable under WTO rules. You'd also see all current putative trade deals collapse. Perhaps some in the UK want the UK to be placed under sanctions as it plays to the 'world outside blessed Albion is bad' narrative, but it would be a dangerous one, and that narrative alone would propel the UK to split up much faster.

 

Yes that was exactly my point. @thehowler seems to have missed that, perhaps my fault for being oblique. I think that a split in the SM is extremely unlikely which is why I compared to to another extremely unlikely outcome.

What I was trying to get at, is whether this stuff about the SM being split up is being discussed anywhere else or whether this is a private fantasy of @thehowler. Not being difficult, just genuinely interested if there are discussions of it elsewhere.

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The thing is the UK has already agreed to such provisions with Japan that are pretty much identical to the ones Japan has with the EU, so why the issue with the EU? It could copy-and-paste from the EU-Japan or UK-Japan deals and be done with it. It could be done in an afternoon with time for tea at 4pm.

If the EU will accept a copy-paste of these terms, then I am sure the U.K. will!  

The issue until now was that the EU negotiators were requiring more rigid controls, direct ECJ control, and forced U.K. dynamic alignment with SM standards into the future. Perhaps that had gone now?  In which case maybe there will be an agreement in time for tea...

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If the EU will accept a copy-paste of these terms, then I am sure the U.K. will!  

The issue until now was that the EU negotiators were requiring more rigid controls, direct ECJ control, and forced U.K. dynamic alignment with SM standards into the future. Perhaps that had gone now?  In which case maybe there will be an agreement in time for tea...

Until the UK shows their hand with their proposals, then the ECJ will be the default...

Edited by Dave Beans
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Yes that was exactly my point. @thehowler seems to have missed that, perhaps my fault for being oblique. I think that a split in the SM is extremely unlikely which is why I compared to to another extremely unlikely outcome.

What I was trying to get at, is whether this stuff about the SM being split up is being discussed anywhere else or whether this is a private fantasy of @thehowler. Not being difficult, just genuinely interested if there are discussions of it elsewhere.

Yes, it's unlikely and of course undesired. That doesn't stop it being one of the possible outcomes if the UK refused to check goods coming into NI per EU regs.

It's been raised and discussed and rejected over the last four years. Read some of the Irish papers, I ref them now and again but usually get criticized for being diversionary.

My guess - for what else is any of this - is that the EU would look the other way for the first six months. Bear in mind that any actions by the EU would impact on the remain-voting citizens of NI. The UK would not impose NI/ROI border controls and would argue that to do so would breach the GFA. ROI would then face a choice of whether to keep the Ni/ROI border open, impose checks at said border or impose checks at their ports/airports.

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So if the UK wants anything other than the skinniest of deals (no deal in all but name) then it needs to agree to LPF and state aid provisions. The EU does not want to be on a march to the bottom, so LPF is required for a deal.

LPF of course but it's all about scale. No dynamic alignment in the Japan deal.

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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