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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Agreed. Disastrous for the U.K. But not only for the U.K.  

For the avoidance of any doubt in the uninitiated, I am a “remainer”.  

Sorry, I keep forgetting. It's the language you use you see, you sound exactly like a brexiter pretending to be a remainer.

As others mentioned about, the EU nations are pursuing the path it thinks will be least damaging to themselves longer term but protecting the integrity of the union above short term gain.

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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Agreed. Disastrous for the U.K. But not only for the U.K.  

For the avoidance of any doubt in the uninitiated, I am a “remainer”.  

As someone once said, it will be a little like the Iraq war, it will be difficult to find anyone who was in favour of it. 

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Sorry, I keep forgetting. It's the language you use you see, you sound exactly like a brexiter pretending to be a remainer.

As others mentioned about, the EU nations are pursuing the path it thinks will be least damaging to themselves longer term but protecting the integrity of the union above short term gain.

Aye, Single Market is the citadel, right to protect it. As EU have always said, Brexit is lose lose though the smaller party will suffer more. No deal is messy for ROI though.

If there is a UK govt strategy for future growth, it's tempting to see fragments of it in Johnson's latest announcements, all peculiarly falling in the same week after the dramatic and spontaneous exit of his top aide clasping the box of shame.

Green energy boosterism with investment in Midlands and autos, big increase - around 10% per annum - to the defense budget including hype about a space base for Scotland and military AI investment, Canada deal to be announced before end of week (from Bloomberg)...

It can all be picked apart but it begins to look like a smokescreen of positive hype to obscure the pitifully underwhelming FTA, (if we even manage to get one)?

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Aye, Single Market is the citadel, right to protect it. As EU have always said, Brexit is lose lose though the smaller party will suffer more. No deal is messy for ROI though.

If there is a UK govt strategy for future growth, it's tempting to see fragments of it in Johnson's latest announcements, all peculiarly falling in the same week after the dramatic and spontaneous exit of his top aide clasping the box of shame.

Green energy boosterism with investment in Midlands and autos, big increase - around 10% per annum - to the defense budget including hype about a space base for Scotland and military AI investment, Canada deal to be announced before end of week (from Bloomberg)...

It can all be picked apart but it begins to look like a smokescreen of positive hype to obscure the pitifully underwhelming FTA, (if we even manage to get one)?

....and under a very thin deal and covid, how much of it will we actually be able to afford? I suspect much of it will be quietly dropped next year..

Edited by Dave Beans
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Sorry, I keep forgetting. It's the language you use you see, you sound exactly like a brexiter pretending to be a remainer.

As others mentioned about, the EU nations are pursuing the path it thinks will be least damaging to themselves longer term but protecting the integrity of the union above short term gain.

I guess part of this language is because I am passing on views from the people I meet with - many of whom are still bang on the Brexit bandwagon.

But also, I do think we need to be realistic about how a dogmatic Single-market above everything (that will be seen by many/exploited as U.K. bashing) agenda from the EU will play in the U.K.

Arguably, we have now gone down a long line of options being treated more poorly because of our long and at times happy and constructive membership or the EU. 

“No, you cannot have a deal like  Switzerland and retain your sovereignty by requirement of bilateral agreement to all applications of EU law”

 “No, you cannot have a deal like Norway and retain your sovereignty over territorial waters”

”No you cannot have an FTA and be Canada and retain your autonomy over future standards and state aid”

I can see the reason why the EU have these negotiating positions, I just also see the long term damage to relations that these positions are causing (in my view)  

 

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I guess part of this language is because I am passing on views from the people I meet with - many of whom are still bang on the Brexit bandwagon.

But also, I do think we need to be realistic about how a dogmatic Single-market above everything (that will be seen by many/exploited as U.K. bashing) agenda from the EU will play in the U.K.

Arguably, we have now gone down a long line of options being treated more poorly because of our long and at times happy and constructive membership or the EU. 

“No, you cannot have a deal like  Switzerland and retain your sovereignty by requirement of bilateral agreement to all applications of EU law”

 “No, you cannot have a deal like Norway and retain your sovereignty over territorial waters”

”No you cannot have an FTA and be Canada and retain your autonomy over future standards and state aid”

I can see the reason why the EU have these negotiating positions, I just also see the long term damage to relations that these positions are causing (in my view)  

 

As I've said before, we'll have to go down a road of hardship before anything much can happen (especially if your involved in exports in any way).. At some point, we are going to have to have a comprehensive "FTA" with the EU...which will contain elements of the single market in it.. That's what Frost effectively wanted during these negotiations..

In this culture war, a grown up, adult debate will have to wait a little longer..

Edited by Dave Beans
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I guess part of this language is because I am passing on views from the people I meet with - many of whom are still bang on the Brexit bandwagon.

But also, I do think we need to be realistic about how a dogmatic Single-market above everything (that will be seen by many/exploited as U.K. bashing) agenda from the EU will play in the U.K.

Arguably, we have now gone down a long line of options being treated more poorly because of our long and at times happy and constructive membership or the EU. 

“No, you cannot have a deal like  Switzerland and retain your sovereignty by requirement of bilateral agreement to all applications of EU law”

 “No, you cannot have a deal like Norway and retain your sovereignty over territorial waters”

”No you cannot have an FTA and be Canada and retain your autonomy over future standards and state aid”

I can see the reason why the EU have these negotiating positions, I just also see the long term damage to relations that these positions are causing (in my view)  

 

🙄

All these strawman arguments have been answered before.

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I guess part of this language is because I am passing on views from the people I meet with - many of whom are still bang on the Brexit bandwagon.

But also, I do think we need to be realistic about how a dogmatic Single-market above everything (that will be seen by many/exploited as U.K. bashing) agenda from the EU will play in the U.K.

Arguably, we have now gone down a long line of options being treated more poorly because of our long and at times happy and constructive membership or the EU. 

“No, you cannot have a deal like  Switzerland and retain your sovereignty by requirement of bilateral agreement to all applications of EU law”

 “No, you cannot have a deal like Norway and retain your sovereignty over territorial waters”

”No you cannot have an FTA and be Canada and retain your autonomy over future standards and state aid”

I can see the reason why the EU have these negotiating positions, I just also see the long term damage to relations that these positions are causing (in my view)  

 

Why are you putting so much emphasis on blaming the EU?

"No, you cannot have ..." it's ridiculous and twisted logic from your side.

 

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I guess part of this language is because I am passing on views from the people I meet with - many of whom are still bang on the Brexit bandwagon.

But also, I do think we need to be realistic about how a dogmatic Single-market above everything (that will be seen by many/exploited as U.K. bashing) agenda from the EU will play in the U.K.

Arguably, we have now gone down a long line of options being treated more poorly because of our long and at times happy and constructive membership or the EU. 

“No, you cannot have a deal like  Switzerland and retain your sovereignty by requirement of bilateral agreement to all applications of EU law”

 “No, you cannot have a deal like Norway and retain your sovereignty over territorial waters”

”No you cannot have an FTA and be Canada and retain your autonomy over future standards and state aid”

I can see the reason why the EU have these negotiating positions, I just also see the long term damage to relations that these positions are causing (in my view)  

 

Who care how it 'plays out', its what Brexiteers voted for, regardless of the consequences, which have been fully explained.

The rest of us understood it would be a disaster but we don't count.

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I guess part of this language is because I am passing on views from the people I meet with - many of whom are still bang on the Brexit bandwagon.

But also, I do think we need to be realistic about how a dogmatic Single-market above everything (that will be seen by many/exploited as U.K. bashing) agenda from the EU will play in the U.K.

Arguably, we have now gone down a long line of options being treated more poorly because of our long and at times happy and constructive membership or the EU. 

“No, you cannot have a deal like  Switzerland and retain your sovereignty by requirement of bilateral agreement to all applications of EU law”

 “No, you cannot have a deal like Norway and retain your sovereignty over territorial waters”

”No you cannot have an FTA and be Canada and retain your autonomy over future standards and state aid”

I can see the reason why the EU have these negotiating positions, I just also see the long term damage to relations that these positions are causing (in my view)  

 

Its not that complicated - brextremists don't want to negotiate collaborate or cooperate on anything because any of the above is a 'compromise'. 

As absolutely nothing is acceptable to the 20% or so, all of us just have to sit in a puddle with them for a bit.

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EU must be weighing up the BATNA costs and benefits now as both sides claim to be holding fast...

The EU member states unity is intact, impressive after all these years of negotiations, the SM is safe and they have the WA. They've already agreed subsidies - not sure if they got to setting figures - on helping communities/industries affected by Brexit, and ROI of course. They will not be seen as the ones that left the table first and they can weather the economic hit much better than the UK.

As for the UK's BATNA, well we've got Johnson as PM but he does have a large majority so I think he'll be able to push through emergency laws and soldier on, for a while anyway. We're waiving tariffs/checks collection for six months, maybe longer, so cost of food imports shouldn't soar - hard to predict though. We've got the furlough scheme for struggling businesses for three months into the New Year. We've got some rollover trade deals, should get a few more pretty quickly. I imagine the UK will move immediately to try and dismantle/renegotiate the WA and NI Protocol, the Lords are resisting but the HoC will vote it all through, I would think. They'll probably claim that the EU didn't act seriously/in good faith to get the FTA and that was an implied and vital component of the WA. They could have support from across the NI communities to reopen the WA - very important in the eyes of the US. But the legal clash will be painful and the EU have breach of the treaty on their side. On finance, we'll see a big hit to the City and value of the pound. Imagine we'll see more firms/staff moving into the EU but very hard to gauge overall damage of this.

We then get into the waiting game.

EU will anticipate, I would guess, that pressure will quickly build on the Brits to return to the table and largely accept the deal that - presumably - is on offer, (or one that's more protective of EU interests). The Brit team will be hoping for the inverse, that with each passing month - and under the cover of the Covid money, new FTA rollovers coming in and UK firms getting their heads around the new dynamic - the pain and unfamiliar obstacles of no deal will start to subside, while disruption on fish and for ROI will gradually worsen.

Just to avoid all this extra rancour as we move into 2021, a FTA seems worth it, and is still my expectation.

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Remainers still banging on in their Trump-like determination to engage in ridiculous mental gymnastics to justify claiming a vote didn't count?

Why the hell has it become the norm to kick up a big fuss and refuse to accept results you don't like? Remainers have done it, Scottish nationalists have done it, Trump's done it. Shame on the lot of them for trying to poison the entire concept of democracy, although they're all too self-assured in their delusion to even accept that's what they're doing (like Trump I expect they sincerely believe their own justifications because they simply cannot face the idea of a world where they're not true).

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Remainers still banging on in their Trump-like determination to engage in ridiculous mental gymnastics to justify claiming a vote didn't count?

Why the hell has it become the norm to kick up a big fuss and refuse to accept results you don't like? Remainers have done it, Scottish nationalists have done it, Trump's done it. Shame on the lot of them for trying to poison the entire concept of democracy, although they're all too self-assured in their delusion to even accept that's what they're doing (like Trump I expect they sincerely believe their own justifications because they simply cannot face the idea of a world where they're not true).

Totally disagree with you! Brexiters are on the rise and fall Trump-like locomotion from the very beginning.

Shifting and deflecting blame, denying wrongdoing, twisting and reframing Brexiters toxic actions, .... I would compare your manoeuvres to the Gaslighting.

 

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Remainers still banging on in their Trump-like determination to engage in ridiculous mental gymnastics to justify claiming a vote didn't count?

Why the hell has it become the norm to kick up a big fuss and refuse to accept results you don't like? Remainers have done it, Scottish nationalists have done it, Trump's done it. Shame on the lot of them for trying to poison the entire concept of democracy, although they're all too self-assured in their delusion to even accept that's what they're doing (like Trump I expect they sincerely believe their own justifications because they simply cannot face the idea of a world where they're not true).

I no longer bang on about it.

Like you I love the idea of no-deal and dimwits supporting a corrupt government whose only talent is lying. A government whose only ambition is filling their pockets.

Bodes well for the future of our country. Gonna enjoy watching the pain among leavers and hope that people like you keep on voting for the biggest liars to help twist the screws for the next decade. And yes, you support the Tories. It was their idea. You voted Brexit.

What's next? Abortion should be banned and hanging doesn't kill anybody? Both coming to a referendum near you.

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Remainers still banging on in their Trump-like determination to engage in ridiculous mental gymnastics to justify claiming a vote didn't count?

Why the hell has it become the norm to kick up a big fuss and refuse to accept results you don't like? Remainers have done it, Scottish nationalists have done it, Trump's done it. Shame on the lot of them for trying to poison the entire concept of democracy, although they're all too self-assured in their delusion to even accept that's what they're doing (like Trump I expect they sincerely believe their own justifications because they simply cannot face the idea of a world where they're not true).

When will you stop acting like you lost the referendum?

It seems to me that you (personally) got what you wanted. Many other people who voted Brexit did not, at least those who voted in anticipation of a cake and eat it deal, a Norway style deal or any other deal not skinny enough to be the current offering. I put it to you that it is also their vote that did not count, at least in any meaningfull way. The issue is why was the referendum so badly framed that the outcome only satisfied a small minority of the population? I hardly call that a democratic outcome.

 

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Remainers still banging on in their Trump-like determination to engage in ridiculous mental gymnastics to justify claiming a vote didn't count?

Why the hell has it become the norm to kick up a big fuss and refuse to accept results you don't like? Remainers have done it, Scottish nationalists have done it, Trump's done it. Shame on the lot of them for trying to poison the entire concept of democracy, although they're all too self-assured in their delusion to even accept that's what they're doing (like Trump I expect they sincerely believe their own justifications because they simply cannot face the idea of a world where they're not true).

As a remainer I was quite happy to accept Norway. It's done now, we've left. Just waiting for the oven ready deal, you know th the deal that won Johnson his whopping majority. 

Are you happy to go against what people voted for, what they were promised?

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Remainers still banging on in their Trump-like determination to engage in ridiculous mental gymnastics to justify claiming a vote didn't count?

Why the hell has it become the norm to kick up a big fuss and refuse to accept results you don't like? Remainers have done it, Scottish nationalists have done it, Trump's done it. Shame on the lot of them for trying to poison the entire concept of democracy, although they're all too self-assured in their delusion to even accept that's what they're doing (like Trump I expect they sincerely believe their own justifications because they simply cannot face the idea of a world where they're not true).

This Brexit, COVID response and ultimately government are all an unprecedented disgrace.

Time to set aside all that remainiacking, spare a thought for your countrymen and have a level-headed think about the topic of this thread.

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EU must be weighing up the BATNA costs and benefits now as both sides claim to be holding fast...

The EU member states unity is intact, impressive after all these years of negotiations, the SM is safe and they have the WA. They've already agreed subsidies - not sure if they got to setting figures - on helping communities/industries affected by Brexit, and ROI of course. They will not be seen as the ones that left the table first and they can weather the economic hit much better than the UK.

As for the UK's BATNA, well we've got Johnson as PM but he does have a large majority so I think he'll be able to push through emergency laws and soldier on, for a while anyway. We're waiving tariffs/checks collection for six months, maybe longer, so cost of food imports shouldn't soar - hard to predict though. We've got the furlough scheme for struggling businesses for three months into the New Year. We've got some rollover trade deals, should get a few more pretty quickly. I imagine the UK will move immediately to try and dismantle/renegotiate the WA and NI Protocol, the Lords are resisting but the HoC will vote it all through, I would think. They'll probably claim that the EU didn't act seriously/in good faith to get the FTA and that was an implied and vital component of the WA. They could have support from across the NI communities to reopen the WA - very important in the eyes of the US. But the legal clash will be painful and the EU have breach of the treaty on their side. On finance, we'll see a big hit to the City and value of the pound. Imagine we'll see more firms/staff moving into the EU but very hard to gauge overall damage of this.

We then get into the waiting game.

EU will anticipate, I would guess, that pressure will quickly build on the Brits to return to the table and largely accept the deal that - presumably - is on offer, (or one that's more protective of EU interests). The Brit team will be hoping for the inverse, that with each passing month - and under the cover of the Covid money, new FTA rollovers coming in and UK firms getting their heads around the new dynamic - the pain and unfamiliar obstacles of no deal will start to subside, while disruption on fish and for ROI will gradually worsen.

Just to avoid all this extra rancour as we move into 2021, a FTA seems worth it, and is still my expectation.

Think of it slightly differently. Instead of a BATNA, what is the best negotiated non-agreement?

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Remainers still banging on in their Trump-like determination to engage in ridiculous mental gymnastics to justify claiming a vote didn't count?

Why the hell has it become the norm to kick up a big fuss and refuse to accept results you don't like? Remainers have done it, Scottish nationalists have done it, Trump's done it. Shame on the lot of them for trying to poison the entire concept of democracy, although they're all too self-assured in their delusion to even accept that's what they're doing (like Trump I expect they sincerely believe their own justifications because they simply cannot face the idea of a world where they're not true).

It's now over 3yrs since the last poll showed a majority for leaving the EU. The latest have shown the desire to Remain part of the EU at a high.   

Don't you think that dragging an unwilling country out of the EU, because of vote won over 4yrs ago by  promising an undeliverable Brexit will damage democracy.

 

 

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It's now over 3yrs since the last poll showed a majority for leaving the EU. The latest have shown the desire to Remain part of the EU at a high.   

Don't you think that dragging an unwilling country out of the EU, because of vote won over 4yrs ago by  promising an undeliverable Brexit will damage democracy.

 

 

😂🤣

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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