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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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This has always been my view but there's the risk of a banana peel - straight, not bendy - when you run everything to the last few weeks. I suppose they'd find a way to have a temporary extension of transition terms if so?

They've been careful to say they're not in the tunnel, yet, so I guess they could announce that in next day or two, aim to present the deal in mid-Nov.

I don't buy the line that Johnson's waiting for the US result, i think any US deal is still years away.

The President's fast tracking of FTAs expire on 1st July 2021 (via the Trade Promotion Authority).  If it isn't agreed by then, then there set back will be years....if the severe backlash against US agricultural goods continue, this could well make an FTA unlikely for a fair while...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast_track_(trade)

 

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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I think Brexit is lose - lose situation.

In relation to Brexit, what exactly do you mean by victory?

Mr VIs put it well...

 

There will be a compromise but neither side will admit to caving in. Boris will declare victory and Brexit supporters will believe him.

..after all, a slightly worse trade deal with Japan is considered a triumph.

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Are you also expecting that there will be a caving in?

And, thehowler and his ilk will claim this is victory?

@thehowler seems to be posting moderate balanced content lately. Or maybe he always was and I've just become desensitised? 🤣

Brexit is a lose-lose, no doubt. In a purely selfish way the best outcome for me in the medium term would be a splendid deal with the EU, they cave to all the UKs demands, the UK becomes a low regulation competitor to the EU with full access to the EU markets, able to gain more business because of this. My salary increases massively because we become such an attractive place to do business and demand for skills shoots up. GBP goes back to 1.5 to the Euro and retirement abroad is brought forward by several years.

Not sure how likely that is, doesn't seem like it would be great for the EU countries.

Next best option is a disaster brexit, GBP tanks massively and my global funds increase in GBP value respectively, allowing me to pay off my (now larger) mortgage much earlier.

Middle ground where we're worse off than before without it being a big disaster and not seeing any benefits is kind of the worst option, for me personally.

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@thehowler seems to be posting moderate balanced content lately. Or maybe he always was and I've just become desensitised? 🤣

Brexit is a lose-lose, no doubt. In a purely selfish way the best outcome for me in the medium term would be a splendid deal with the EU, they cave to all the UKs demands, the UK becomes a low regulation competitor to the EU with full access to the EU markets, able to gain more business because of this. My salary increases massively because we become such an attractive place to do business and demand for skills shoots up. GBP goes back to 1.5 to the Euro and retirement abroad is brought forward by several years.

Not sure how likely that is, doesn't seem like it would be great for the EU countries.

Next best option is a disaster brexit, GBP tanks massively and my global funds increase in GBP value respectively, allowing me to pay off my (now larger) mortgage much earlier.

Middle ground where we're worse off than before without it being a big disaster and not seeing any benefits is kind of the worst option, for me personally.

Right from the start, I was always against any kind of a deal, in the hope that common sense would prevail and A50 would be invoked.

The worse mess Brexit proves to be, the sooner we can be rid of this dreadful government with their lies, incompetence, and daily ministerial propaganda briefings.

The best outcome now would be to rejoin the EU, hopefully with stronger ties than before.

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Right from the start, I was always against any kind of a deal, in the hope that common sense would prevail and A50 would be invoked.

The worse mess Brexit proves to be, the sooner we can be rid of this dreadful government with their lies, incompetence, and daily ministerial propaganda briefings.

The best outcome now would be to rejoin the EU, hopefully with stronger ties than before.

I'm afraid I don't share your confidence that tough times for the UK will automatically lead to a speedy volte-face and the UK rejoining. But we've always disagreed over timescales and the mood of the countries.

We didn't get the 2nd ref. We didn't get the revocation of Art 50. We didn't get a progressive govt and we didn't get an extension to transition. These miscalculations in mind, I think it will be two or three full-term parliaments before we get any chance of rejoining and hence my desire for the best possible FTA in the interim.

That's because I don't think it's wise to attempt rigging the game by making choices we know to be harmful - there are too many unknowns in the equation.

If the UK tries, and fails despite best efforts, then people will see the merits of rejoining.

If the UK tries and gradually prospers that's not a terrible outcome either, and could still lead us back to the public wanting a new, close relationship with the bloc again.

But we all have our vision of the UK's best steps in the years ahead.

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On another note, I've been looking at the pound/euro lately...where do other posters think the rate will be in six months' time if we get a FTA and relations are generally good with EU moving into 2021?

It's up at €1.11 today but I still think the euro is overvalued. Third month of deflation in the eurozone announced today, down at -0.3. BigMac index from July suggests €1.24.

That's close to where I'd put it, back over €1.20.

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And on les poissons...a second deal signed, (with the Faroes) that sets precedent for annual talks on quotas etc. Helpful for UK team on fish negotiations re UK/EU FTA...

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-signs-fisheries-agreement-with-the-faroe-islands

 

 

 

I don't know why the EU bother negotiating, since the word of the BJ government has been proven to be meaningless.

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I don't know why the EU bother negotiating, since the word of the BJ government has been proven to be meaningless.

Pragmatism. And because they'll get most of what they want.

Law-breaking and court action inter-government/EC are more common than many people realize.

https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-takes-france-to-court-over-air-pollution/

 

 

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I don't use those services.

Us single men can pick and choose, discard and replace Infinitely.

Wow just wow. This quote sounds so very much Norman Bates. It seriously concerns me that as a 40 year old male you would live with your mother and repeat this mantra from a psycho. You're so proud of it too which makes it even more worrying. 

 

Get help!

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Right from the start, I was always against any kind of a deal, in the hope that common sense would prevail and A50 would be invoked.

The worse mess Brexit proves to be, the sooner we can be rid of this dreadful government with their lies, incompetence, and daily ministerial propaganda briefings.

The best outcome now would be to rejoin the EU, hopefully with stronger ties than before.

The campaign to rejoin must kick off inside the next 18 months with a referendum to rejoin straight after the next (hopefully early) general election. The idiots who  voted for Brexit do deserve a bit more suffering to pay for their stupidity, this will of course increase over the next 12 months.

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How many people buy organic eggs?

I do.

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Record number of people think that leaving the EU was wrong idea (wrong 50%, good 38%, don't know 12% ). 14% lead for wrong if you exclude undecided.  

 

image.png.e15ffa98af973de4f3f54ed5025af687.png

 

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

Irrelevant. 

You can never change your mind based on how people live up to their promises. 

That's why we only have one election in our lifetimes 

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