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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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1 hour ago, thehowler said:

Now we get a month of posturing - and quiet negotiations - until an early/mid Nov breakthrough with the EU moving a little on fish and us moving a lot on LPF and a last minute FTA.

Or not.

It's going to be a busy month for UK customs agents.

As I posted earlier on, any deal that involves fish and transport involves a mixed agreement..and if no EU state vetoes the deal, it'll take how long?

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'Talks' then. In any case it was scheduled before the latest exchange.

Where? Do you have a link to that as the EU usually have a press release schedule and I didn't see one.

I think the Commission just said they're coming.

EDIT TO ADD:

Briefings to Irish journo, Tony Connelly...

Source says the trade talks were effectively ended by the EU yesterday when they said they did not want to change their negotiating position.

Source adds that EU officials shd only come to London if they are prepared to discuss all issues, on the basis of legal texts, in an accelerated way, without the UK being required to make all the moves. Or we can talk about flights, lorries etc If not there is no point coming.

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As I posted earlier on, any deal that involves fish and transport involves a mixed agreement..and if no EU state vetoes the deal, it'll take how long?

Then I guess they'd have to sign the deal and have a time-limited implementation, along the lines of what theCrashingIsles has been saying for a large part of this year.

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Can't we ask the Chinese to sail over with some of their super-trawlers and scoop the lot?

Yep. Asian super trawlers, here we come. 
 

Monumentally stupid decisions by both sides in the last day or so. 
 

I wish I had @thehowlers confidence that this is all theatre and that a deal is still on in his “Act 3”, but I do not. 

Brexit is becoming more and more a “point of principle” for those on both sides Of the Channel. Emotion has taken over, and there is now little sign any Logical thinking. 
 

Best two examples I can think of this in the last 24 hours were:

Johnson’s Hissy fit on why we cannot have a Simple Canada-style Agreement When we have been in the EU for 45 years (‘cos we are right on the EU doorstep and always have been, stupid). 
 

Macron’s comment that it was the U.K. voters who caused Brexit so why should France be any worse off (‘cos we were all always going to be worse off under any Brexit scenario than with  U.K. in the EU, stupid). 
 

Both of these approaches appear sound from a “point of principle” viewpoint, but are utter drivel when faced with the logic of the real world. 

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How can there be any meaningful negotiations until the UK agrees to comply with international law? 

You can try to negotiate an agreement such

a) you are better off with an agreement than you are currently without it

b) in the case of other party being in breach of it you are no worse than currently 

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I wish I had @thehowlers confidence that this is all theatre and that a deal is still on in his “Act 3”, but I do not.

Both Macron and Johnson seem to be making any climbdown harder for themselves...but I wouldn't be surprised if we see the two of them meeting in coming weeks and high-fiving. Perhaps it's all being set up for a political intervention after all?

But I was surprised by Johnson's tone and indifference tonight at the presser. Seemed that he was expecting something from the summit after the call with VDL and MIchel and got snubbed, so let's move on.

Dutch and Irish PMs have been making emollient statements, they've got the most to lose - after the UK, of course.

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Great. Mess in NI. No deal with the USA then.

Raise your hands those who voted for those guys.

I wonder how the spat between UK and EU will be seen around the world now...will they think, well, it was Macron, he got angry about the fish and said non! Or will they think Johnson was just asking for too much? The FTA doesn't look that greedy to me, and there is a degree of reciprocal benefit here that seems to escape a few MEPs. Nothing's been finalised on equivalence or professional certificates, we're not getting cabotage, so it seems very skinny and Frost has already made it pretty clear that we're ready to move on LPF.

So are EU boosters really saying Macron is right to play it tough on fish?

I don't think the dust has settled on the summit yet or who's really scuppered things for now.

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I wonder how the spat between UK and EU will be seen around the world now...will they think, well, it was Macron, he got angry about the fish and said non! Or will they think Johnson was just asking for too much? The FTA doesn't look that greedy to me, and there is a degree of reciprocal benefit here that seems to escape a few MEPs. Nothing's been finalised on equivalence or professional certificates, we're not getting cabotage, so it seems very skinny and Frost has already made it pretty clear that we're ready to move on LPF.

So are EU boosters really saying Macron is right to play it tough on fish?

I don't think the dust has settled on the summit yet or who's really scuppered things for now.

I wouldn't worry about Macron, he was always cocky.  More important is overall mood among the EU PMs. As I said the EU would not agree to a deal without a robust LPF and governance framework. Fishing is more a political issue, less economic. The UK tried to use it as its trump card. I think the UK overplayed it.    

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I wouldn't worry about Macron, he was always cocky.  More important is overall mood among the EU PMs. As I said the EU would not agree to a deal without a robust LPF and governance framework. Fishing is more a political issue, less economic. The UK tried to use it as its trump card. I think the UK overplayed it.    

UK can cave on LPF, they could cave on fish, but unlikely to cave on both. If Frost is ready to move on LPF do you think the Italians or Poles care about Macron's fish?

Looks as though the Monday flying visit has been torpedoed, suspect it was always just the Commission trying to look willing. And a bit embarrassed after the member states waded in.

 

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  • 428 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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