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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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Intensify no more. Latest draft of euco's Brexit communique only asks Barnier to `continue' talks in coming weeks. Leaders also invite the EC to `give timely consideration to unilateral and time-limited contingency measures that are in the EUʼs interest' in the event of no deal.

This seems (seemed) the likely outcome to me. Like Euro clearing and other services, the EU and UK will implement contingency measures that suit them. Some may or may not overlap. Then we get to see the more interesting side of this whole fallout as both sides seek to unwind and refine these measures. The UK has been a gateway into Europe for many business. The EU member states will probably look to move the functions they want inside the EU through various measures (regulatory barriers for eg). Again, example is clearing which will continue for a period, but a limited period. Other functions cease more abruptly. Currently most (all?) major finance institutions have long ago prepared solutions for for Dec 31st / Jan 1st when regulator measures kick in to prevent certain financial activities for UK / EU clients on their respective markets (mostly EU side).

 

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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Ok, I'm not aware of that. As in, literally no import of EV batteries at all? I don't really know the economics of it, so no real comment, but now I understand your question.

For all these issues over EVs, can the UK still hope to fulfill the 2032 promise of no new ICE vehicles?

Edited by Dave Beans
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"Not at any price" is cropping up quite a bit from the member state leaders...tough call for Macron, I'm sure he could get most of what he wants but he seems to be set on no divergence from status quo at all, which doesn't recognize developments. Hard to say fish can't change a little, when everything else is changing.

I see VDL is isolating again. Can't make things any easier for negotiations.

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"Not at any price" is cropping up quite a bit from the member state leaders...tough call for Macron, I'm sure he could get most of what he wants but he seems to be set on no divergence from status quo at all, which doesn't recognize developments. Hard to say fish can't change a little, when everything else is changing.

It's a more reasonable position than it appears on the face of it. He's saying, "The cost of getting what you want is that we don't pay the price."

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That's why I keep thinking they'll invest 100 Billion in a new EV tech city in South Wales.

And start mining the lithium in Cornwall!

100bn is a drop in the ocean, if the govt want to bring in EVs as the defacto transport.. for instance, how much does it cost to develop a new car for instance, let alone the infrastructure? The govt can't subsidise the tariffs either... They want to make EVs look more enticing, rather than putting people off them..

Bridgwater of all places could well be a future hotspot...

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/elon-musk-tesla-uk-factory-4192165 

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It's a more reasonable position than it appears on the face of it. He's saying, "The cost of getting what you want is that we don't pay the price."

All that lovely ground of a win-win (compared to no deal) wasted by a dogmatic adherence to a past position that can never be retained. 

One way or another, things will change shortly. 

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All that lovely ground of a win-win (compared to no deal) wasted by a dogmatic adherence to a past position that can never be retained. 

One way or another, things will change shortly. 

'Win-win compared to no deal' is a false paradigm. Brexit is the UK's choice, and other member states don't see why they should incur losses to help the UK adjust, especially when the UK has been using the language of blackmail since before the referendum. As far as they see it, Brexit means Brexit, and no deal is better than a bad deal.

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'Win-win compared to no deal' is a false paradigm. Brexit is the UK's choice, and other member states don't see why they should incur losses to help the UK adjust, especially when the UK has been using the language of blackmail since before the referendum. As far as they see it, Brexit means Brexit, and no deal is better than a bad deal.

Are you saying the French are maintaining that nothing is changing?

Whilst saying everything has to change.

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Tweet 2 is especially pertinent...I can't see a deal in the offing...

 

Looks like they've taken TMs advice that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'.

So Scotland is off, the entire north of England have given the government the finger and the continent have had enough.

Is there a common denominator I wonder ?

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Article 4 TFEU...

Areas including fishing & transport would need the agreement of all 27 governments, the so called mixed agreement... I can't really see there's any time for even a thin FTA.. and then there could be vetoes...

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12016E004&from=EN

 

 The Union shall share competence with the Member States where the Treaties confer on it a competence which does not relate to the areas referred to in Articles 3 and 6.

2.   Shared competence between the Union and the Member States applies in the following principal areas:

(a)

internal market;

(b)

social policy, for the aspects defined in this Treaty;

(c)

economic, social and territorial cohesion;

(d)

agriculture and fisheries, excluding the conservation of marine biological resources;

(e)

environment;

(f)

consumer protection;

(g)

transport;

(h)

trans-European networks;

(i)

energy;

(j)

area of freedom, security and justice;

(k)

common safety concerns in public health matters, for the aspects defined in this Treaty.

3.   In the areas of research, technological development and space, the Union shall have competence to carry out activities, in particular to define and implement programmes; however, the exercise of that competence shall not result in Member States being prevented from exercising theirs.

4.   In the areas of development cooperation and humanitarian aid, the Union shall have competence to carry out activities and conduct a common policy; however, the exercise of that competence shall not result in Member States being prevented from exercising theirs.

 


Edited by Dave Beans
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That's why I keep thinking they'll invest 100 Billion in a new EV tech city in South Wales.

And start mining the lithium in Cornwall!

I don't think you really "mine" lithium, at least in the conventional sense. Its more of a pumping operation from what I understand. Its more akin to drilling for oil.

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Rules of origin dictate whether/how much of manufactured goods can be produced outside the EU/UK and still qualify for tariff free trade. UK wanted up to 70% non-UK components still being classed as UK-made in finished goods, thus swerving the tariff. EU draft suggests they will ask for below 50% - which makes EV exports without tariff very tricky for the UK, as we will rely on imported components.

Furthermore, from 2027 the EU - in the draft leak, anyway - appear to want all EV battery production to originate within the EU - and UK -  in order to qualify for zero tariffs. This will obviously require massive investment - from state perhaps? - in new tech around EVs. The EU are already investing heavily in battery tech - mentioned upthread - some of which is under special terms that are exempt from state aid regs. I wonder if their ambit is to be producing millions of batteries within five years or so, which will of course influence UK business/govt decisions. I don't know whether this is a realistic ambit or not, hence the question. It also hints at a EU-wide tech strategy around EVs, a smart move in my view.

It's related to Brexit as we in the UK don't appear to have a future trade, industrial or tech strategy - all of which are needed with some urgency as we begin to experience the aftermath of leaving the SM/CU.

EV's are strategic requirement for the EU and many countries, I would expect. There is no question they will replace ICU's.

The majority of a EV is the battery, hence battery production is the absolute core of an industrial strategy.

 

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EV's are strategic requirement for the EU and many countries, I would expect. There is no question they will replace ICU's.

The majority of a EV is the battery, hence battery production is the absolute core of an industrial strategy.

 

Its a core component obviously but it isnt the bulk of the cost. Consider that a model 3 costs £42500 and a replacement battery £5500....

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  • 428 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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