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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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How would it be prevented from doing so?

Scotland leaving would be hugely complex and disruptive, even more so than the UK leaving the EU.

If it looked like Scotland was set to vote or independence a good Devomax deal could be offered as an alternative option, I think that would be enough to swing the vote. 

 

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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Scotland leaving would be hugely complex and disruptive, even more so than the UK leaving the EU.

If it looked like Scotland was set to vote or independence a good Devomax deal could be offered as an alternative option, I think that would be enough to swing the vote.

Why would delivering Devomax be easier than delivering independence?

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Making pre vote threats doesn't seem to be in the spirit of the GFA. The ROI would probably counter that the UK is responsible for the poor position NI is in so should provide "maintenance" payments until NI is back on its feet.

Perhaps NI leaving without assuming any of the National debt would be sufficient for a clean break and a reasonable deal for both parties.  

 

 

We're talking about a govt. that have been thinking about not honouring the £39bn EU break - so anything is possible.

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Scotland leaving would be hugely complex and disruptive, even more so than the UK leaving the EU.

If it looked like Scotland was set to vote or independence a good Devomax deal could be offered as an alternative option, I think that would be enough to swing the vote. 

 

Other way round surely, Scotland can be an "independent state" and regain full sovereignty, and instantly sign a comprehensive and mutually beneficial "full alignment" treaty with England so there are no practical effects.

That would satisfy the unionists who want no divergence, and would satisfy the nationalists who want Scotland to be an independent sovereign nation

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Other way round surely, Scotland can be an "independent state" and regain full sovereignty, and instantly sign a comprehensive and mutually beneficial "full alignment" treaty with England so there are no practical effects.

That would satisfy the unionists who want no divergence, and would satisfy the nationalists who want Scotland to be an independent sovereign nation

Second easiest deal in human history?

Edited by NobodyInParticular
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If it looked like Scotland was set to vote or independence a good Devomax deal could be offered as an alternative option, I think that would be enough to swing the vote. 

The IM bill seeks to undevolve things. I don't think Devomax would be trusted.

 

Making pre vote threats doesn't seem to be in the spirit of the GFA. 

Very much not. It would get short shrift.

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Other way round surely, Scotland can be an "independent state" and regain full sovereignty, and instantly sign a comprehensive and mutually beneficial "full alignment" treaty with England so there are no practical effects.

That would satisfy the unionists who want no divergence, and would satisfy the nationalists who want Scotland to be an independent sovereign nation

Good initial tactic. Do a switch and bait job a la Brexit, then deliver something different. To be fair, the Scots would probably be better off with the EU, just have to neuter those pesky unionist remainers first....Brexit has been a learning ground.

Edited by IMHAL
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The UK will have a problem with both ICEs and EVs, we don't have anything like a full supply chain for either. 

Maybe the biggest single Brexit related economic blow will prove to be Tesla's decision to base its European factory in Berlin rather than the UK. At a stroke the chance of the UK being a major player in EV production disappeared.  Within a few years the Berlin plant will be producing more by value than the entire UK auto industry is today.

Concentrating on ICE production isn't a way forward either. Although people are being slow to recognise it, the announcements made on Tesla battery day amounted to the death knell for the ICE industry. It showed the route towards removing the Cobalt dependency, increasing the production of a battery plant tenfold, halving the cost of batteries and improving their power density enough to increase range to over 500 miles.   

A few months ago the UK government was rumoured to be ready to offer Tesla "whatever it takes" to get Tesla to locate a second European plant in the UK. That seems to have come to nothing. 

Ahem

EU to reject UK plea for Brexit electric car deal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54538648

 

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Ahem

EU to reject UK plea for Brexit electric car deal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54538648

 

Oh dear! With so much sovereignty at our disposal you'd think we could just do it all ourselves. A kind of oven ready electric car....how hard can it be?.....some wheels a motor and a duracell battery. I'm sure leavers would buy into that simple message.

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Ahem

EU to reject UK plea for Brexit electric car deal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54538648

 

Looks like we'll need that Britishvolt gigasite up and running before 2027 then!

No idea on the scale though...can the EU really produce enough batteries for all car production by then?

https://britishvolt.com/

 

 

Edited by thehowler
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Rolling brown-outs ahoy?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/national-grid-warning-short-supply-electricity-a4571091.html

Four hours a day should be enough for anyone. :lol:

I wonder if this potential issue was why Barnier referenced the UK's desire to remain part off the EU's single energy market as wanting a benefit worth 5 times the value of the fishing industry.

 

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I'm struggling to understand this question. Is this something to do with brexit? I don't understand why you're questioning it.

Rules of origin dictate whether/how much of manufactured goods can be produced outside the EU/UK and still qualify for tariff free trade. UK wanted up to 70% non-UK components still being classed as UK-made in finished goods, thus swerving the tariff. EU draft suggests they will ask for below 50% - which makes EV exports without tariff very tricky for the UK, as we will rely on imported components.

Furthermore, from 2027 the EU - in the draft leak, anyway - appear to want all EV battery production to originate within the EU - and UK -  in order to qualify for zero tariffs. This will obviously require massive investment - from state perhaps? - in new tech around EVs. The EU are already investing heavily in battery tech - mentioned upthread - some of which is under special terms that are exempt from state aid regs. I wonder if their ambit is to be producing millions of batteries within five years or so, which will of course influence UK business/govt decisions. I don't know whether this is a realistic ambit or not, hence the question. It also hints at a EU-wide tech strategy around EVs, a smart move in my view.

It's related to Brexit as we in the UK don't appear to have a future trade, industrial or tech strategy - all of which are needed with some urgency as we begin to experience the aftermath of leaving the SM/CU.

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Japan may well be. 

The draft annexe to the deal also goes even further from 2027, only allowing the use of car batteries manufactured either in the EU or the UK in tariff free vehicle trade between the two.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54538648

Of course this comes with all the usual caveats...it's only a draft, negotiations ongoing, price of batteries and other components dropping etc.

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Rules of origin dictate whether/how much of manufactured goods can be produced outside the EU/UK and still qualify for tariff free trade. UK wanted up to 70% non-UK components still being classed as UK-made in finished goods, thus swerving the tariff. EU draft suggests they will ask for below 50% - which makes EV exports without tariff very tricky for the UK, as we will rely on imported components.

Furthermore, from 2027 the EU - in the draft leak, anyway - appear to want all EV battery production to originate within the EU - and UK -  in order to qualify for zero tariffs. This will obviously require massive investment - from state perhaps? - in new tech around EVs. The EU are already investing heavily in battery tech - mentioned upthread - some of which is under special terms that are exempt from state aid regs. I wonder if their ambit is to be producing millions of batteries within five years or so, which will of course influence UK business/govt decisions. I don't know whether this is a realistic ambit or not, hence the question. It also hints at a EU-wide tech strategy around EVs, a smart move in my view.

It's related to Brexit as we in the UK don't appear to have a future trade, industrial or tech strategy - all of which are needed with some urgency as we begin to experience the aftermath of leaving the SM/CU.

Ok, I'm not aware of that. As in, literally no import of EV batteries at all? I don't really know the economics of it, so no real comment, but now I understand your question.

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  • 428 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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