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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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54 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Maybe true but your arguments seem to be hinting that we should still not be a member of the EU because there is a significant number of people who distrust it? Regardless they're in the majority or not?

No, I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is that the 2016 vote could not happen without an already substantial number being of a mind to leave and the contest is at the margin. The vote could have gone either way but that would not remove it as a major political issue.

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

Oddly I part company here. The EU has quite fundamental issues to address and this is widely recognised. The completion of EMU requires some sort of fiscal union which is much nearer a federal state than where it is now. But I don't think a federal state will work with 27 disparate countries and will be resisted. Even a fiscal union will not receive the assent of Germany.

Where does it then go? Search me. But these are existential matters that will have to e resolved sooner or later. What may come out of all this remains to be seen but it may be a much looser form of association which the UK may find much more congenial to be part of. Putting it another way I don't dismiss the idea that we will never rejoin the EU but it will be a different EU.

You are too hung up on misunderstood terminology to be able to see the underlying reality with any insight.

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5 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

The one created, ironically, bt Blair. It is obvious that low wages creates artificial demand for low paid work that could be mechanised...

Blair is a Centre-Right Neoliberal not a Socialist!

It's not at all obvious that immigration is responsible for the UK's culture of low wages. It may be factor in some sectors of the economy but not generally.

Quote

Since the financial crash of 2008 the number of UK-born workers aged 16 to 64 has declined by around half a million, according to the Office for National Statistics labour force survey. At the same time the workforce has increased by about 2 million to a record high.

Older workers make up a significant minority of extra people in employment. There were 1.2 million workers aged 65 or older in 2016, up from 700,000 in 2008 and 500,000 in 2003.

But the focus has been on migrants, who have secured a disproportionate number of the full-time jobs on offer over the same period. To emphasise the point, since the jobs market began to recover in 2012, around two-thirds of the improvement in the UK’s employment rate can be attributed to migrant labour.

UK-born workers, on the other hand, were less likely to be in full-time employment in 2016 compared with 2008. The gains they made were in self-employment or working part-time, whether that was in a staff or self-employed position.

Surely this trend justified the view that migrants marginalised UK-born workers?

The studies seen by Cable showed that migrants rarely supplanted UK-born workers, but went into expanding industries where there were simply not enough people to do the jobs or UK-born workers willing to do them.

The biggest employment growth was in sectors, such as hospitality and leisure, transport and logistics and the care industry. Professional firms in London were also more likely to hire the over-qualified diaspora from the continent who found themselves unable to break into a moribund jobs market. But even here, firms were expanding their work, not substituting migrants for UK-born workers.

It meant that essential job vacancies were filled rather than left open for months or years. Businesses that might otherwise have put their expansion plans on hold, from coffee shops and supermarket delivery services to fintech start-ups, were able to meet a growing demand.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/06/the-truth-about-wages-and-immigration-emerges-at-last

 

 

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On 26/06/2020 at 22:42, Confusion of VIs said:

A disaster in the making, we will end up paying a fortune to resurrect a failed company trying and no doubt eventually failing to compete with Elon Musks 12,000 strong Starlink system. 

What makes it even more ridiculous is we don't need a GPS system. By the end o the year the world will have 4 open GPS systems, the chance of us upsetting, at the same time, all of the US, EU, China and Russia enough for them to withdraw access must be vanishingly unlikely for even this government.    

Great - a Garden Bridge to the moon.

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1 hour ago, Dave Beans said:

Talks will be ongoing - for as long as the EU exists...Ask the Swiss...

 

Had to google what is actually happening with the Swiss and the EU. It seems that the Swiss did reach an agreement but then decided to do a flip flop. So, not really surprising that it has not been concluded. And yes, we have been doing the same thing...flip flopping..headless chicken syndrome.

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1 hour ago, Dave Beans said:

Talks will be ongoing - for as long as the EU exists...Ask the Swiss...

 

Early days,  but that sounds a bit like the death knell of cake and eat it and more like sitting on the Russia report.

Presumably they are trying to square the circle between the EU and  US negotiations - hence that recent tidbit of news from the US trade head.

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22 hours ago, crouch said:

How can Mr Greedy Bobble be other than fleetingly happy with the impoverished village on his doorstep? Do you think they will tolerate this forever? Ever heard the word revolution?

Of course it may not come to this; Greedy may be sensible enough to give the villagers enough for them to be quiescent whilst accumulating a pile for himself; this would surely be the sensible thing to do.

Mr Greedy Bobble knows all about the increase in foodbanks, the de-funding of national services and the difficulty of buying a home for most of the young - and doesn't give a shit.

But then he has his supporters in the village and most of them are its idiots.

Edited by jonb2

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22 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/romania-population/

looks like rising to a peak in 1995 and continously decling after that to me? its back to 1964 levels, Ceacescu died in 1989.

out of interest i watched the documentary on C4 the other day about the Romanians in the UK, several of them thought the UK was wonderful as it gave them (Roma) jobs, "Wouldn't happen in Romania", kind of makes spyguys point...

You do know that The Roma(ni) are not the same thing as real Romanians ?

In fact, most Romanians I know would be insulted if you conflated the two nationalities. Bit like calling an Irishman from Dublin a 'p i k e y'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romani_people

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8 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Mr Greedy Bobble knows all about the increase in foodbanks, the de-funding of national services and the difficulty of buying a home for most of the young - and doesn't give a shit.

But then he has his supporters in the village and most of them are its idiots.

I find this unconvincing. There has to be a limit beyond which people's endurance gives way to revolution, more so where you have, as you say, insouciance by our rulers. And, as Abraham Lincoln (maybe) said "You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time".

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5 minutes ago, crouch said:

I find this unconvincing. There has to be a limit beyond which people's endurance gives way to revolution, more so where you have, as you say, insouciance by our rulers. And, as Abraham Lincoln (maybe) said "You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time".

Revolution? Usually only when the food runs out.

This could happen by technicality (Brexit?) or by hyper-inflation hand-in-hand with massive unemployment - looks like we could be on-course for both.

It's interesting to project a contrast between here and the USA if we reach this stage. Here, I don't think TPTB could cope with violent insurgency, ironically not enough resources. In the States, they would revert to a vicious police state and it would be extremely nasty. Unless something changes there, I don't think it's hype to expect a second civil war. 50 million unemployed with no food or shelter is the prefect recipe.

Good thing we are looking to such a stable nation for our trading future eh?

 

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1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

This could happen by technicality (Brexit?) or by hyper-inflation hand-in-hand with massive unemployment - looks like we could be on-course for both.

Maybe. 

1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

It's interesting to project a contrast between here and the USA if we reach this stage. Here, I don't think TPTB could cope with violent insurgency, ironically not enough resources. In the States, they would revert to a vicious police state and it would be extremely nasty. Unless something changes there, I don't think it's hype to expect a second civil war. 50 million unemployed with no food or shelter is the prefect recipe.

I agree with the resource angle here.

As for the US I think DT is an obvious polarising figure but whether he'll be reelected remains to be seen. Biden isn't much better but probably would be beter to some degree.

This pandemic may light the blue touch paper because it's exposed a society that has a dysfunctional and expensive healthcare system and a huge precariat that are just a few dollars away from destitution.

Although you maintain the lurid style here I don't dismiss your "civil war" scenario out of hand; the US is a divided and angry country with huge numbers on little more than subsistence and an elite that just keeps getting richer - hardly a recipe for stability.

1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

Good thing we are looking to such a stable nation for our trading future eh?

We may end up trading with the US on same terms as the EU ie without an agreement so I don't see this as over by any means.

Edited by crouch

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More good news:  https://www.business-live.co.uk/technology/infinity-beyond-european-space-agency-18480934

Funny its not on the BBC... Another take:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-do-we-so-rarely-hear-the-good-news-about-the-economy

Imagine if a European agency had just announced that it was to close a site in the Midlands, withdrawing from Britain and taking jobs of scientists with it. It isn’t hard to work out where that would feature on BBC news – up top. It would be presented as another cost of Brexit, another result of the foolish decision the country made in 2016 to leave the EU. Interviewees would be dredged up to tell us we had condemned ourselves us to become a deskilled economy.

News outlets seem so obsessed with woke and culture war issues that we don’t get to learn about important pieces of investment

Now imagine that a European agency had actually just announced that it is to open a new base in the Midlands. You won’t have known about it by reading the BBC website, but that is exactly what has just happened. The European Space Agency (not part of the EU) has announced that it is to open a ‘space tech incubation unit’ in Leicester to help start-ups access the expertise they need, whether it be from university research to large corporations. Among the private sector organisations already to have signed up for space at the park are Lockheed Martin, Thales Alenia Space, Hewlett Packard, Airbus and Amazon. The first projects to be supported will concentrate on the are of Earth Observation, such as measuring land use changes from space.

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53 minutes ago, dryrot said:

More good news:  https://www.business-live.co.uk/technology/infinity-beyond-european-space-agency-18480934

Funny its not on the BBC... Another take:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-do-we-so-rarely-hear-the-good-news-about-the-economy

Imagine if a European agency had just announced that it was to close a site in the Midlands, withdrawing from Britain and taking jobs of scientists with it. It isn’t hard to work out where that would feature on BBC news – up top. It would be presented as another cost of Brexit, another result of the foolish decision the country made in 2016 to leave the EU. Interviewees would be dredged up to tell us we had condemned ourselves us to become a deskilled economy.

News outlets seem so obsessed with woke and culture war issues that we don’t get to learn about important pieces of investment

Now imagine that a European agency had actually just announced that it is to open a new base in the Midlands. You won’t have known about it by reading the BBC website, but that is exactly what has just happened. The European Space Agency (not part of the EU) has announced that it is to open a ‘space tech incubation unit’ in Leicester to help start-ups access the expertise they need, whether it be from university research to large corporations. Among the private sector organisations already to have signed up for space at the park are Lockheed Martin, Thales Alenia Space, Hewlett Packard, Airbus and Amazon. The first projects to be supported will concentrate on the are of Earth Observation, such as measuring land use changes from space.

"The first projects to be supported will concentrate on the are of Earth Observation, such as measuring land use changes from space."

Nice, more snooping, automated valuation office, council tax and business rate increases from space :)

 

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6 hours ago, dryrot said:

More good news:  https://www.business-live.co.uk/technology/infinity-beyond-european-space-agency-18480934

Funny its not on the BBC... Another take:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-do-we-so-rarely-hear-the-good-news-about-the-economy

Imagine if a European agency had just announced that it was to close a site in the Midlands, withdrawing from Britain and taking jobs of scientists with it. It isn’t hard to work out where that would feature on BBC news – up top. It would be presented as another cost of Brexit, another result of the foolish decision the country made in 2016 to leave the EU. Interviewees would be dredged up to tell us we had condemned ourselves us to become a deskilled economy.

News outlets seem so obsessed with woke and culture war issues that we don’t get to learn about important pieces of investment

Now imagine that a European agency had actually just announced that it is to open a new base in the Midlands. You won’t have known about it by reading the BBC website, but that is exactly what has just happened. The European Space Agency (not part of the EU) has announced that it is to open a ‘space tech incubation unit’ in Leicester to help start-ups access the expertise they need, whether it be from university research to large corporations. Among the private sector organisations already to have signed up for space at the park are Lockheed Martin, Thales Alenia Space, Hewlett Packard, Airbus and Amazon. The first projects to be supported will concentrate on the are of Earth Observation, such as measuring land use changes from space.

Jeez another BBC wing-nut. As bad as the paedo-heads. Or the same lot ?

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On 27/06/2020 at 17:02, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

When's it going to collapse spygirl?

It already has started to fall.

Brexit was caused by thick headed Europeans who cold not see a problem. The cause of Brexit - flood of EE - is a hot topic in other European countries.

The failure is going to be Italy and its banks.

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32 minutes ago, spyguy said:

It already has started to fall.

Brexit was caused by thick headed Europeans who cold not see a problem. The cause of Brexit - flood of EE - is a hot topic in other European countries.

The cause of Brexit has always been our politicians blaming the EU for our own policy mistakes. Like early access for EE countries...for example...

There are lots of hot topics here and everywhere...it's called life..

32 minutes ago, spyguy said:

The failure is going to be Italy and its banks.

And if it's not then I'm sure you can find another reason for the EU's imminent collapse....and another after that.

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10 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

The cause of Brexit has always been our politicians blaming the EU for our own policy mistakes. Like early access for EE countries...for example...

There are lots of hot topics here and everywhere...it's called life..

And if it's not then I'm sure you can find another reason for the EU's imminent collapse....and another after that.

No.

Brexit was casud by FOM and the EUs butt headed ignorance in not seeing the UK was hosting ~80% of Europe FOM.

There's a lot of outliers  on Europes problem - FN winning Frence election, German poltiics collapsing. Both are quite likely.

However, the real  immediate risk is Italys banking system. Uts beyond bust. And its scammed loads of mug - or not so mug - punters to buy high yielding bank bonds.

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2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No.

Brexit was casud by FOM and the EUs butt headed ignorance in not seeing the UK was hosting ~80% of Europe FOM.

The UK allowed early access to EE. It was a deliberate policy by the UK to attract cheap labour.....with consequences. Why blame the EU for a problem that the UK made for itself.

2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

There's a lot of outliers  on Europes problem - FN winning Frence election, German poltiics collapsing. Both are quite likely.

Meh... lots of issues everywhere. Scotland, N Ireland, our own gov and personal debt.....thats life.

2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

However, the real  immediate risk is Italys banking system. Uts beyond bust. And its scammed loads of mug - or not so mug - punters to buy high yielding bank bonds. 

Italy is an issue... they will probably resolve it.

Euroggedon keeps coming and going, and coming.....and going. It's getting very boring.

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

It already has started to fall.

Brexit was caused by thick headed Europeans who cold not see a problem. The cause of Brexit - flood of EE - is a hot topic in other European countries.

The failure is going to be Italy and its banks.

But I thought it was Greece? But then it was Deutsche Bank? But then it was the UK voting to leave?

 

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BJs latest campaign to build, build, build (autobahns?) is timed to coincide with the deadline for extending the EU transition period which expires in 2 days.

3035.jpg?width=940&quality=45&auto=forma

Edited by Bruce Banner

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22 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

BJs latest campaign to build, build, build (autobahns?) is timed to coincide with the deadline for extending the EU transition period which expires in 2 days.

Boris will not extend. He has a giant ego, perhaps a narcissist. He sees brexit as an opportunity to roll the dice to be recorded in history, gambling with the countries future so that he can be "the prime minister who dared". 

And actually, in another of a long sequence of events that have led to brexit, we now have a pandemic and the resulting economic fallout. A perfect cover for the downsides of brexit. I know that brexiters will be secretly designed by this. 

I have to laugh at how perfectly everything has aligned (for one side) to get us to this point.

 

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15 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Boris will not extend. He has a giant ego, perhaps a narcissist. He sees brexit as an opportunity to roll the dice to be recorded in history, gambling with the countries future so that he can be "the prime minister who dared". 

And actually, in another of a long sequence of events that have led to brexit, we now have a pandemic and the resulting economic fallout. A perfect cover for the downsides of brexit. I know that brexiters will be secretly designed by this. 

I have to laugh at how perfectly everything has aligned (for one side) to get us to this point.

 

I'm sad about COVID raining on the victory parade. It will cover any upsides of Brexit as well as any downsides. (Shock, horror, there might be downsides at some point!!)

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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