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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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14 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

This is a common sleight of hand that brexiters use. You pretend to care so deeply about other countries that you want to stop their citizens having the same rights you do, a right to make a better life by relocating. Unfortunately, brexiters can't keep their arguments in sync because on the other hand you advocate a points based system where we only take the best from those other countries.

I suppose if you wanted to apply that, we had better apply the same in the UK where the South East of England is robbing all the other regions of their citizens and driving down wages in London, increasing cost of housing and putting pressure on schools and hospitals. We better end freedom of movement within the UK to solve that problem, it seems to be the only way.

If there were very deep differences in the culture of eg Taxpaying  within the UK that persisted long term I would agree, However as the UK has central taxation service, such differences would result in a visit by HMRC wherever you are in the UK. Never heard of a visit from Brussels to look at an individuals tax return. We are a very long way off that kind of centralisation at the moment and an attempt to apply it would cause real internal problems in the EU, probably terminal. Whereas the complete emptying of southern eastern europe is gathering pass. Either FoM was too soon or central taxation not fast enough.

This is the sleight of hand of the Europhile, claiming that will soon arrive at total integration when it suits the argument and then claiming that the EU27/28 were a coalition of independent states when it does not.

The EU has a central weakness, it has to remain popular, therefore it has to bring forward anything that looks attractive to the average person, eg FoM and sa strong currency, but it also has to put off the inevitable downsides to those, clampdowns on corruption, visits from Herman the Taxman etc. Those things will have to come, but they will be put off until the EU has the victim by the throat.

Am i concerned about eg Romanians? I am concerned that we are all being sold a lie, yes even the Romainians. I keep pointing that i am surrounded by nice immigrants doing high skilled jobs. Mostly refugees form the problems i describe in southern europe.

 

 

Edited by debtlessmanc

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9 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

What is the Modern Left? When did this entity import cheap labour via freedom of movement, or refuse to mechanise jobs, or not support a living wage for all workers including locals??

Immigration allows the economy to continue to expand even after the constraint of full employment is reached. The controlling mechanism - a market mechanism, no less - is excess demand in the labour market across the business cycle.

The one created, ironically, bt Blair. It is obvious that low wages creates artificial demand for low paid work that could be mechanised...

Edited by debtlessmanc

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36 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

okay so lets agree that the scandinavian social democracies are good, try watching this, it is only 15mins

 

The guy makes the point that actually not only do their societies provide a good "safety net" they actually produce a large number of high net worth individuals with good social mobility he then goes on to link that to high minimum wage, strong unions and good education systems. Crucially though he makes the point that the systems that fail at this are characterised by people doing low paid jobs that are not only unrewarding but could be mechanised

to get back to the point of the thread, this is what i do not get about the modern left, they do not make the straightforward (to me) connection that enabling people to import cheap labour via freedom of movement to essentially not mechanise jobs or pay locals enough to do, simply drives divisions and makes our society more unequal. If the inequality in the other countries is the result of cultural practices (Tax evasion, corrupution) then it will never be solved by having the sensible people leave. It is a practice that is straight out of the naked capitalism rulebook and a form of colonialism. This would have been obvious to eg Harold Wilson, probably our most left wing ever PM. To me the left are being remorseless deceived by the "Xenophobia" trope and absolutely refuse to see it. The average labour voter of old though are not so easily fooled...

 

Cheap labour is a policy of the economic Right, opposed by the economic Left.

The social Right then offloads the blame for the ills visited on it by its economic wing onto immigrants but more generally the ‘Other’. The social Left focuses on this phobic mania.

Nobody is of course entirely one of these categories. And note the term ‘Nationalist Socialist’
But it’s possible to flip to a vaguely centrist position: Europe has been ‘levelling up’: hence people initially offski to richer countries like the UK then returning to their respective developed countries - as we all know immigration was tailing off before the referendum so who knows maybe Farage needed Turkey.

How ‘levelling-up’ happens in the future when AI grabs it by the throat will be interesting to see.

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1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

OK. One last time. Since I have made my point many times.

So ...

Mr Greedy Bobble, who has lots of money and is a teeny-weeny bit nasty - is living in a castle which magically allows him to get much more money and get a lot more nasty. He only has to wish. And Billy the Banker and Patty the Politician will make sure the castle has the magic power to fulfil every craving Mr Greedy Bobble has. His friends, Billy and Patty simply take all the magic from the people of the village below and give it to Greedy. In the past it's taken years to harvest all the magic from the people, but hey have found a way to take all the magic in one night. But are working on a system to take it from all the villages in the Enchanted Kingdom in less than an hour. This makes Mr Greedy Bobble very happy and he will live happily for ever.

How can Mr Greedy Bobble be other than fleetingly happy with the impoverished village on his doorstep? Do you think they will tolerate this forever? Ever heard the word revolution?

Of course it may not come to this; Greedy may be sensible enough to give the villagers enough for them to be quiescent whilst accumulating a pile for himself; this would surely be the sensible thing to do.

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50 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

If there were very deep differences in the culture of eg Taxpaying  within the UK that persisted long term I would agree, However as the UK has central taxation service, such differences would result in a visit by HMRC wherever you are in the UK. Never heard of a visit from Brussels to look at an individuals tax return. We are a very long way off that kind of centralisation at the moment and an attempt to apply it would cause real internal problems in the EU, probably terminal. Whereas the complete emptying of southern eastern europe is gathering pass. Either FoM was too soon or central taxation not fast enough.

This is the sleight of hand of the Europhile, claiming that will soon arrive at total integration when it suits the argument and then claiming that the EU27/28 were a coalition of independent states when it does not.

The EU has a central weakness, it has to remain popular, therefore it has to bring forward anything that looks attractive to the average person, eg FoM and sa strong currency, but it also has to put off the inevitable downsides to those, clampdowns on corruption, visits from Herman the Taxman etc. Those things will have to come, but they will be put off until the EU has the victim by the throat.

Am i concerned about eg Romanians? I am concerned that we are all being sold a lie, yes even the Romainians. I keep pointing that i am surrounded by nice immigrants doing high skilled jobs. Mostly refugees form the problems i describe in southern europe.

You are being dishonest. The population decline in countries like Romania was far steeper in the years after the collapse of communism than it has been since they have been members of the EU. The same is true of the Baltic states.

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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

What I find wierd about the rabidly pro Remainers (I voted Remain, if makes any difference) is how little they understand different European countries.

They sort of have a Sunday supplement / Rick Stein view of europeans - pootling long between bistros, buying buckets of rough wine from the farmer. When in fact they understand the countries even less than they do Warren from Middlesbrough who's street is now 80% EEers.

Living in modern day mainland Eutope ishard - if you are not connected to some form of public sector money pipe.

Analyse of Nazi fascism tends to be all 6th form socialist worker, or call be Alan, politics lecturer at some low end regional poly.

Fascism has its roots in a form Italian civil society where everyone now n again  give up on individualism/family and take a hard consistent line. Places like Florence weren't built by everyone having a say so.

Il Duce tried to channel that for his mumbo jumbo ********. Adolf copied him, mixing in his own mumbo jumbo.

There have been a few newspapers columnists who claimed to have supported Remain, but realised they were wrong after the referendum. Of course, they were lying and it was easily checked. They wrote nonsense about the remain point of you much as you did, so I am going to assume you are lying.

So, let us take your theory that Leavers are more moral and smart and that that is the difference.

An alternative, is that people who more more likely to be disenchanted with modern politics, whose social status and life prospects have gone down in the last couple of generations (lack of qualifications, age, or loss of status from being a white straight male) are also more likely to support Leave.

That a simple straight forward agressive approach to lifes problems, that is perfect for negotiating a car deal, is more likely to not believe there are complex problems (i.e. global warming skeptics) are less likely to see a practical purpose for the EU.

That people who have realised that people take most of their understanding of the world on faith in certain people, and who have lost faith that these "experts" are actually anything special, will doubt things like global warming or their being a purpose of the EU. They will see Remainers as naive (with some reason) and write the sort of nonsense you write on here.

It has been several years. Were you to have written those posts in 2016, I would have been appreciative of them. That you are so brain dead as to have not moved on in your thoughts since is tiresome.

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3 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

There have been a few newspapers columnists who claimed to have supported Remain, but realised they were wrong after the referendum. Of course, they were lying and it was easily checked. They wrote nonsense about the remain point of you much as you did, so I am going to assume you are lying.

So, let us take your theory that Leavers are more moral and smart and that that is the difference.

An alternative, is that people who more more likely to be disenchanted with modern politics, whose social status and life prospects have gone down in the last couple of generations (lack of qualifications, age, or loss of status from being a white straight male) are also more likely to support Leave.

That a simple straight forward agressive approach to lifes problems, that is perfect for negotiating a car deal, is more likely to not believe there are complex problems (i.e. global warming skeptics) are less likely to see a practical purpose for the EU.

That people who have realised that people take most of their understanding of the world on faith in certain people, and who have lost faith that these "experts" are actually anything special, will doubt things like global warming or their being a purpose of the EU. They will see Remainers as naive (with some reason) and write the sort of nonsense you write on here.

It has been several years. Were you to have written those posts in 2016, I would have been appreciative of them. That you are so brain dead as to have not moved on in your thoughts since is tiresome.

I struggle to se any of your claims in my post.

I've been consistent on the outcome of the Brexit vote, even before the masses considered it a remote possibility.

I wrote similar posts in 2015.

I even started a thread. Dec2015.

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, crouch said:

Twenty years has nothing to do with it. What I object to is the "Reds under the beds" conspiracy theory with no foundation at all. If there is evidence - fine.

Well of course there is evidence. But tbf I can't confirm the concerns or intelligence services around the world or the Russia Report under BJ's 4rse any more than I can confirm man landed on the moon.

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1 minute ago, spyguy said:

I struggle to se any of your claims in my post.

I've been consistent on the outcome of the Brexit vote, even before the masses considered it a remote possibility.

I wrote similar posts in 2015.

I even started a thread. Dec2015

Well done.

My posts still stands and yours have not moved on in five year.

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47 minutes ago, crouch said:

How can Mr Greedy Bobble be other than fleetingly happy with the impoverished village on his doorstep? Do you think they will tolerate this forever? Ever heard the word revolution?

Of course it may not come to this; Greedy may be sensible enough to give the villagers enough for them to be quiescent whilst accumulating a pile for himself; this would surely be the sensible thing to do.

:) I wish I could find the cartoon but...on the left you have the Poor Man with a couple of coins.

To the right you have the Immigrant no better off.

In the middle the Rich Man, with his dragons pile of gold points at the immigrant and tells the poor man "he took your pennies".

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4 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Well done.

My posts still stands and yours have not moved on in five year.

Not really.

You are still waiting for this vague EU thing to work.

As it stands, the EU lurches faster to destruction without the UK.

The EU might suddenly square the circle, start transferring money between tne poorer and richer parts. But it's unlikely. What's the outcome?

 

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47 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

You are being dishonest. The population decline in countries like Romania was far steeper in the years after the collapse of communism than it has been since they have been members of the EU. The same is true of the Baltic states.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/romania-population/

looks like rising to a peak in 1995 and continously decling after that to me? its back to 1964 levels, Ceacescu died in 1989.

out of interest i watched the documentary on C4 the other day about the Romanians in the UK, several of them thought the UK was wonderful as it gave them (Roma) jobs, "Wouldn't happen in Romania", kind of makes spyguys point...

Edited by debtlessmanc

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24 minutes ago, pig said:

:) I wish I could find the cartoon but...on the left you have the Poor Man with a couple of coins.

To the right you have the Immigrant no better off.

In the middle the Rich Man, with his dragons pile of gold points at the immigrant and tells the poor man "he took your pennies".

And so?

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28 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/romania-population/

looks like rising to a peak in 1995 and continously decling after that to me? its back to 1964 levels, Ceacescu died in 1989.

You need to take a drive to Barnard Castle to test your eyesight. That graph shows a peak in 1990:

1990: 23,489,160

1995: 22,964,754

 

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22 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/romania-population/

looks like rising to a peak in 1995 and continously decling after that to me? its back to 1964 levels, Ceacescu died in 1989.

out of interest i watched the documentary on C4 the other day about the Romanians in the UK, several of them thought the UK was wonderful as it gave them (Roma) jobs, "Wouldn't happen in Romania", kind of makes spyguys point...

You do know that The Roma(ni) are not the same thing as real Romanians ?

In fact, most Romanians I know would be insulted if you conflated the two nationalities. Bit like calling an Irishman from Dublin a 'p i k e y'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romani_people

 

Edited by jonb2

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51 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/romania-population/

looks like rising to a peak in 1995 and continously decling after that to me? its back to 1964 levels, Ceacescu died in 1989.

out of interest i watched the documentary on C4 the other day about the Romanians in the UK, several of them thought the UK was wonderful as it gave them (Roma) jobs, "Wouldn't happen in Romania", kind of makes spyguys point...

Romanians and Roma are not the same, a different kettle of fish.

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38 minutes ago, crouch said:

And so?

Well it was you who asked how can Mr Greedy Bobble be happy with an impoverished village on his doorstep and where's the revolution ?

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1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

You are being dishonest. The population decline in countries like Romania was far steeper in the years after the collapse of communism than it has been since they have been members of the EU. The same is true of the Baltic states.

That was going to be my exact response to @debtlessmanc. You can't debate brexiters because they're just fundamentally dishonest. He shifted the argument entirely, bringing in the tax regime as a cover for the incongruence between the stated desire to keep immigrants in their own country to help those countries, but then use a points system to only take the best immigrants. 

 

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6 hours ago, crouch said:

This is far too facile. The fact is that there has been substantial and growing Euroscepticism for many years; without that I doubt if "gaming the sytem" would have worked; it would have been a step too far.

Not according to Cummings, who was happy to admit there was no specific form of Brexit that could have garnered a majority of the vote. That being so he deliberately promoted an undeliverable all things to all men Brexit and was quite proud of the fact that he managed to successfully game the referendum.

6 hours ago, crouch said:

There are some on here who think that demographics and the inevitable failure of Brexit will see us rejoin in the next few years. This is delusional. There would still be a substantial part of the population who do not want to be in the EU and this appears to be a standing fact. So rejoining solves very little because, at root, this is a political issue.

Obviously you believe in predestination.

We won't be re-joining.

Brexit's failure will deepen, not heal, divisions in the country for a generation or more and no government will want to address the issue of re-joining during that time. 

What most likely will happen is that geography and the economic realities flowing from that will lead us to become a de facto associate member of the EU, or to use Johnson's term a vassal state. The only likely alternative to this being we become a vassal state of the US. 

  

 

 

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23 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

That was going to be my exact response to @debtlessmanc. You can't debate brexiters because they're just fundamentally dishonest. He shifted the argument entirely, bringing in the tax regime as a cover for the incongruence between the stated desire to keep immigrants in their own country to help those countries, but then use a points system to only take the best immigrants. 

 

I have no desire to keep anyone in their countries!! -at all. I am saying that the constraints on the EU of having to, initially at least, enacting only popular policies is building in unsormountable problems for the future. The irony of all this, is that i actually accept that the large influx has certainly had a certain utility to the UK, it reddresses some demographic problems (albeit with unhelpful population growth). I happen to believe that the way it has been implemented is all cart before horse, the EU should have insisted on very strict tax and behavioural criteria for membnership of a FoM zone. That is all. It is quite clear from the admission of Greece and others thast packing in members was far more imprtant to it than checking that they meet any kind of decent criteria on financial proberty etc. As i keep saying, with the current set up the only logical thing to do is stay in and play silly buggers about the regulations, like most of the other states do. The reason we are leaving is that our civil servants are simply too honest to do that.

Edited by debtlessmanc

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43 minutes ago, pig said:

Well it was you who asked how can Mr Greedy Bobble be happy with an impoverished village on his doorstep and where's the revolution ?

Well yes, but you appear to be talking about the use of a scapegoat which I understand. But if things are so egregiously bad then there will be a revolution in which case what's the diference between a revolution with scapegoats compared to one without? To me a revolution is a revolution is a revolution, scapegoats or not.

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Not according to Cummings, who was happy to admit there was no specific form of Brexit that could have garnered a majority of the vote. That being so he deliberately promoted an undeliverable all things to all men Brexit and was quite proud of the fact that he managed to successfully game the referendum.

Well it would be wrong to deny that gaming at the margin can work; and this may be an example. But my point is that it is at the margin; it can only work where there is already substantial dissatisfaction to begin with and that is the case here. But are we talking about "cheating" or is this a complaint about "your gamers were better than ours" which you regard as cheating but is not?

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

We won't be re-joining.

Brexit's failure will deepen, not heal, divisions in the country for a generation or more and no government will want to address the issue of re-joining during that time. 

What most likely will happen is that geography and the economic realities flowing from that will lead us to become a de facto associate member of the EU, or to use Johnson's term a vassal state. The only likely alternative to this being we become a vassal state of the US. 

Oddly I part company here. The EU has quite fundamental issues to address and this is widely recognised. The completion of EMU requires some sort of fiscal union which is much nearer a federal state than where it is now. But I don't think a federal state will work with 27 disparate countries and will be resisted. Even a fiscal union will not receive the assent of Germany.

Where does it then go? Search me. But these are existential matters that will have to be resolved sooner or later. What may come out of all this remains to be seen but it may be a much looser form of association which the UK may find much more congenial to be part of. Putting it another way I don't dismiss the idea that we will never rejoin the EU but it will be a different EU.

Edited by crouch

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2 minutes ago, crouch said:

Well it would be wrong to deny that gaming at the margin can work; and this may be an example. But my point is that it is at the margin; it can only work where there is already substantial dissatisfaction to begin with and that is the case here.

Maybe true but your arguments seem to be hinting that we should still not be a member of the EU because there is a significant number of people who distrust it? Regardless they're in the majority or not?

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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

Not really.

You are still waiting for this vague EU thing to work.

As it stands, the EU lurches faster to destruction without the UK.

The EU might suddenly square the circle, start transferring money between tne poorer and richer parts. But it's unlikely. What's the outcome?

 

When's it going to collapse spygirl?

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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