Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, longgone said:

Rumors or Chinese whispers.  Unigate maybe 

Rumor based on 

Civil Servants looking for a huge site, a size that only Tesla builds 

The government knowing that with JLR largely scrapping its plans to have the UK as its global centre for electric car production (Brexit and no cash) Tesla is its only hope of retaining large scale car production here. 

Musk saying that the European market justifies a second factory.   

[Bob8]

3 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

Oh dear, we are all free to go down to the beach and pick up a fossil, whatever our teacher tells us. Darwin (and others) were drawn to conclude that evolution was the process by which complexity has increased in living organisms overy time. The evidence of this is in the fossil record and in our genes and in our physiologies. Through the scientific process we can investigate for ourselves if we want, i can pick up a fossil from the beach go downstairs in the building i (usually) work in and date it to hundred of millions of years old, or, across the road i can sequence a persons DNA and compare it to an apes.

Darwin was of the establishment and had considered becoming a CE priest, he ended up losing his faith over what he had found, his co-discoverer alfred Russell was more entrenched in his belief and insisted that evolution accounted for fossils and (crazy) animal physiology etc. but he believed this all stopped at humanity that was divinely created. Essentially the position of the RC church at the moment as i understand it. But then they finally realised that burning Bruno at the stake for pointing out the obvious about stars or locking Galileo up for wondering whether the sun was the centre of the solar system  was bad publicity, took them a few hundred years mind.

The problem with giving creationism a pass is that the scientific evidence for it as as good as that  make planes fly or electricity flow, why would let someone who did not listen to such advice build a plane or make your power?

God grief.

Yon know that bit where I said my background. Well, that.

My point, to clarify to the hard if thinking, was your just swallow what suits and be right by co-incidence.

[slawek]

1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Rumor based on 

Civil Servants looking for a huge site, a size that only Tesla builds 

The government knowing that with JLR largely scrapping its plans to have the UK as its global centre for electric car production (Brexit and no cash) Tesla is its only hope of retaining large scale car production here. 

Musk saying that the European market justifies a second factory.   

Who is going to buy in the EU cars 10% more expensive? Will the UK devalue its currency to be more competitive? 

[Bob8]

35 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I have  thanks - smart chappy is Bob8. You can and should assess an approach (and it's effects), be it subjectively or objectively for fitness of purpose/desirability. Afterall, what good is an approach if it turns out to have initially unknown side effects that are very undesirable or even evidently damaging. To continue would be silly.

Well, gosh, darn!

I would compare brexit to communism as an approach. And, Sovet Russia did great in the 30's and 40's. Then, in the 50's and 60's, it surpassed itself, but you would question the human rights. By the 70's, it looked questionable, rubbish in the 80's and dead by the 90's.

It could always be claimed it had not been tried properly, but the reality of the time condemned it.

Brexit is far more ephemeral. I second guess what people want and mean, because I do not really think they are clear on it themselves. That does not undermine it, the rational is a poor excuse for what is more deeply understood. But, as you write, it should be assessed like any other approach or ideology.

 

[Bob8]

4 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Still a flu I say. Spanish flu had 2.5% death rate.

I still maintain this entire overreaction is due to boomers coming to terms with their own mortality.

If it was 1968 again, the same lot who now whine about COVID would have been getting naked (except for a chain of daisies) to music in a muddy field and ignoring the social distancing.

There is no evidence that generation is a big issue.

I suspect age makes people take the latest scare more lightly. My own experience was that I was concerned about them, while they were very casual. They are also skeptical about global warming.

 

[IMHAL]

3 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Well, gosh, darn!

I would compare brexit to communism as an approach. And, Sovet Russia did great in the 30's and 40's. Then, in the 50's and 60's, it surpassed itself, but you would question the human rights. By the 70's, it looked questionable, rubbish in the 80's and dead by the 90's.

It could always be claimed it had not been tried properly, but the reality of the time condemned it.

Brexit is far more ephemeral. I second guess what people want and mean, because I do not really think they are clear on it themselves. That does not undermine it, the rational is a poor excuse for what is more deeply understood. But, as you write, it should be assessed like any other approach or ideology.

 

I agree with that. A result no doubt of the morphing Brexit unicorn of many colours needed to appeal to as many men and women as possible. WRT the deeper understanding, granted, that may exist and it may outweigh any rational to actions for the contrary, obviously this was the case at the referendumm but will it continue to do so? The big reveal will come when the effects of Brexit are felt, and the promises either kept or broken. Especially so if the effects post Brexit damage or enhance peoples ability to work, earn and live how they expect...   

[Bob8]

3 hours ago, slawek said:

How is this approach defined?

What are criteria to asses this approach? 

It is hardly my place. I did not support it.

[dugsbody]

14 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

France bombed libya and syria is a civil war these two account for 90% of the migrants- when italy started turning away boats from libya some turned up off marseille, Macron closed the port immediately (he put border contols at Menton too, we have french friends who live their you shoul hear what they have to say about the “migrant problem”). Most western states pay endless lip service to the plight of migrants but when they show up at their borders, their closed. The uk is not unusual in this regard

You didn't answer the question and you attempted to put the blame on France.

13 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I'm looking forward to it in the short term, loads of unemployed idiots who voted for it.

Nope. The people who voted for it are mostly the elderly who already hold a larger proportion of UK wealth. I bet most of the people on this thread who support brexit are not "the left behind" but actually do fairly well for themselves. They just like to tag the liberal elite moniker on other people and pretend it is all about the poor, but really it is just about stopping certain foreigners from moving here.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

2 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

You didn't answer the question and you attempted to put the blame on France.

Nope. The people who voted for it are mostly the elderly who already hold a larger proportion of UK wealth. I bet most of the people on this thread who support brexit are not "the left behind" but actually do fairly well for themselves. They just like to tag the liberal elite moniker on other people and pretend it is all about the poor, but really it is just about stopping certain foreigners from moving here.

I think it was a mix of the old as you say and the idiots.

Personally I've done well out of it so far, but doesn't mean I think it is a good idea. 

At some point the young need to cause inflation to destroy the state pension as well as spread COVID to harvest the old!

[longgone]

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Rumor based on 

Civil Servants looking for a huge site, a size that only Tesla builds 

The government knowing that with JLR largely scrapping its plans to have the UK as its global centre for electric car production (Brexit and no cash) Tesla is its only hope of retaining large scale car production here. 

Musk saying that the European market justifies a second factory.   

The electric market will change rapidly in the coming years. what looks like the only viable option will be just another option.  

The way you say it is like only tesla is the only viable manufacturer, their business model is like apple so that rules me as a purchaser out regardless of how good the product is perceived to be. 

civil servants are never a good benchmark of where the action is going to be, they are largely brain dead servants of the state playing with others money on things they think sounds like a good idea at the time. 

musk will stick his factory where ever it offers the best tax breaks, lets hope he has enough fanboys so they over look the price tag when the volume manufactures start marking similar 20k cars. 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, longgone said:

The electric market will change rapidly in the coming years. what looks like the only viable option will be just another option.  

The way you say it is like only tesla is the only viable manufacturer, their business model is like apple so that rules me as a purchaser out regardless of how good the product is perceived to be. 

civil servants are never a good benchmark of where the action is going to be, they are largely brain dead servants of the state playing with others money on things they think sounds like a good idea at the time. 

musk will stick his factory where ever it offers the best tax breaks, lets hope he has enough fanboys so they over look the price tag when the volume manufactures start marking similar 20k cars. 

There may be several winners in the race to move to EV's but VW, Toyota or Hyundai won't be interested in  building an integrated  plant in the UK.  After JLR's implosion Tesla is pretty much the last chance of a getting a plant large enough to give the UK the critical mass it needs to create a local supply chain. 

Another reason for Tesla wanting to manufacture in the UK is their registration as an electric supply utility. This is thought to be related to their virtual grid software, where all the Tesla cars and storage systems can be used to balance demand on the grid potentially saving tens of billions on the investment needed to update the grid to cope with the move to renewables.  

Tesla are currently making a 30% margin on their newest models, something other manufactures can only dream of, so plenty of room for price cuts when, or if, the other suppliers catch up. Not looking good for VW at the moment, they are just beginning to realise that EV's are more about your software engineering than your metal bashing abilities.  

 

Edited May 31, 2020 by Confusion of VIs

[Bruce Banner]

The UK faces a no-deal Brexit unless Boris Johnson keeps the promises he made when securing the withdrawal agreement, the EU’s chief negotiator has warned.

Michel Barnier accused the prime minister of trying to back away from the written commitments in the political declaration signed with the European Commission.

He declared there would be no trade deal unless the text he negotiated was complied with “to the letter” — and claimed Britain had more to lose from the failure of the talks.

“The UK has been taking a step back — two steps back, three steps back — from the original commitments,” Mr Barnier said Mr Barnier said in an interview with The Times newspaper.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-talks-no-deal-agreement-boris-johnson-barnier-eu-a9540721.html

[Chunketh]

On 29/05/2020 at 02:33, thecrashingisles said:

To put it a different way, why would they not reciprocate on whatever we do? Do you think it should be easier for a British person to enter Spain than vice versa?

In an ideal world, a vistors visa should be the same in both countries. It is an ideal though, rather than reality.

Some countries want to put a strict cap on visitor numbers, some want to curb some of the less desirable consequences of mass tourism. 

The EU group of countries is kind of different though, I would have thought the entry requirements need to be uniform across the whole block for brits coming in and yes, ideally that should be the same for them coming into the UK. It helps keep governments honest and in theory should lead to less friction.

[debtlessmanc]

10 hours ago, dugsbody said:

You didn't answer the question and you attempted to put the blame on France.

Nope. The people who voted for it are mostly the elderly who already hold a larger proportion of UK wealth. I bet most of the people on this thread who support brexit are not "the left behind" but actually do fairly well for themselves. They just like to tag the liberal elite moniker on other people and pretend it is all about the poor, but really it is just about stopping certain foreigners from moving here.

I did not blame france- i blamed everyone unlike you who, who seems to think England is “exceptional”

[debtlessmanc]

12 hours ago, Bob8 said:

Well, gosh, darn!

I would compare brexit to communism as an approach. And, Sovet Russia did great in the 30's and 40's. Then, in the 50's and 60's, it surpassed itself, but you would question the human rights. By the 70's, it looked questionable, rubbish in the 80's and dead by the 90's.

It could always be claimed it had not been tried properly, but the reality of the time condemned it.

Brexit is far more ephemeral. I second guess what people want and mean, because I do not really think they are clear on it themselves. That does not undermine it, the rational is a poor excuse for what is more deeply understood. But, as you write, it should be assessed like any other approach or ideology.

 

??? Again what are you on??

stalin was murdering millions already by the 30’s. It only ever appealed to those who believe in the theoretical possibility of Nirvana. But then that is perhaps the point to the true believer type. Communism is really the last heresy of christianity, if you cease to believe in the upstairs, then some have to believe they can create heaven on earth instead and forget about God. As to the EU thank you for confirming that some of its admirers have a near religious belief in its benefits. It is another attempt to build a european empire, not dissimilar to eg Rome really- add human rights of a different kind. Nothing really changes with people other than epiphenomena (like religion) we are all apes beneath the skin. I do think mankind will achieve some kind of happiness by technology though, anarchism is what we evolved in (during the pleistocene) and it suits us. Technology AI and robotics will deliver this within a century probably (if we do not blow outselves up).

[Bob8]

Just now, debtlessmanc said:

??? Again what are you on??

stalin was murdering millions already by the 30’s. It only ever appealed to those who believe in the theoretical possibility of Nirvana. But then that is perhaps the point to the true believer type. Communism is really the last heresy of christianity, if you cease to believe in the upstairs, then some have to believe they can create heaven on earth instead and forget about God. As to the EU thank you for confirming that some of its admirers have a near religious belief in its benefits. It is another attempt to build a european empire, not dissimilar to eg Rome really- add human rights of a different kind. Nothing really changes with people other than epiphenomena (like religion) we are all apes beneath the skin. I do think mankind will achieve some kind of happiness by technology though, anarchism is what we evolved in (during the pleistocene) and it suits us. Technology AI and robotics will deliver this within a century probably (if we do not blow outselves up).

Every time you post, it is because you have failed to read properly.

It was possible to not know about Stalin's atrocities at the time. I was not saying it was good.

If you read more carefully, this will stop happening. Every time you have posted a mail to me it has been based on you misreading. Please, stop wasting our time by being careless.

[debtlessmanc]

12 hours ago, slawek said:

Who is going to buy in the EU cars 10% more expensive? Will the UK devalue its currency to be more competitive? 

It could unlike eg Italy

[debtlessmanc]

4 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Every time you post, it is because you have failed to read properly.

It was possible to not know about Stalin's atrocities at the time. I was not saying it was good.

If you read more carefully, this will stop happening. Every time you have posted a mail to me it has been based on you misreading. Please, stop wasting our time by being careless.

Ahh i see every time you appear to be wrong, you are not really. Okay i get it and i will stop replying. Just to point out many knew about Stalins atrocities and thought it to be an inevitable but unfortunate side effect of achieving the perfect communist state. Believing perfection can or does exist (outside of mathematics) is the justification for most of mankinds worst atrocities. 

[slawek]

12 hours ago, Bob8 said:

It is hardly my place. I did not support it.

You have made a claim "If brexit cannot be defined then we cannot judge it as a project, only an approach. And, those effects should be assesseed."

How do you know we can judge Brexit as an approach if you don't know what this approach is?

In fact Leavers have made many promises sometimes contradicting. Some people made a decision to support it based on those promises. It is then fair to use those promises to judge if Brexit was a success. Using this assessment approach it is rather clear Brexit has been a failure.  The current outcome, no deal or some basic FTA with the EU, was not what was promised.  

[debtlessmanc]

18 minutes ago, slawek said:

You have made a claim "If brexit cannot be defined then we cannot judge it as a project, only an approach. And, those effects should be assesseed."

How do you know we can judge Brexit as an approach if you don't know what this approach is?

In fact Leavers have made many promises sometimes contradicting. Some people made a decision to support it based on those promises. It is then fair to use those promises to judge if Brexit was a success. Using this assessment approach it is rather clear Brexit has been a failure.  The current outcome, no deal or some basic FTA with the EU, was not what was promised.  

perhaps "leavers" are not an homogeneous bunch, perhaps they are a collection of anarchists, bennites, xenophobes and immigrants who object to preferential treatment of eastern europeans? Remainers are a much more homogenous bunch, at least the vocal ones are.

[Bob8]

1 hour ago, debtlessmanc said:

Ahh i see every time you appear to be wrong, you are not really. Okay i get it and i will stop replying. Just to point out many knew about Stalins atrocities and thought it to be an inevitable but unfortunate side effect of achieving the perfect communist state. Believing perfection can or does exist (outside of mathematics) is the justification for most of mankinds worst atrocities. 

I really would urge you to re-read. The post you are pretending I wrote would be stupid, and well done for correcting that post. But, what I actually posted was something else. If you cannot understand the difference, that is really not on me.

[Bob8]

23 minutes ago, slawek said:

You have made a claim "If brexit cannot be defined then we cannot judge it as a project, only an approach. And, those effects should be assesseed."

How do you know we can judge Brexit as an approach if you don't know what this approach is?

In fact Leavers have made many promises sometimes contradicting. Some people made a decision to support it based on those promises. It is then fair to use those promises to judge if Brexit was a success. Using this assessment approach it is rather clear Brexit has been a failure.  The current outcome, no deal or some basic FTA with the EU, was not what was promised.  

I agree, it can be condescending to second guess what the aim is, but if the proponents keep it a secret, there is little choice.

I think it is best understood as a simple populist doctorine, including a presumption that the world is not that connected:
- There is not requirement for close co-operation with neighbouring nations or further afield (e.g. climate change, trade etc)
- The EU is the cause of most of our problems
- The best approach is traditional British approach and trust in the traditional hierarchy

We can see where that approach gets us.

[debtlessmanc]

15 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

I agree, it can be condescending to second guess what the aim is, but if the proponents keep it a secret, there is little choice.

I think it is best understood as a simple populist doctorine, including a presumption that the world is not that connected:
- There is not requirement for close co-operation with neighbouring nations or further afield (e.g. climate change, trade etc)
- The EU is the cause of most of our problems
- The best approach is traditional British approach and trust in the traditional hierarchy

We can see where that approach gets us.

The paris accord or indeed the convention on humans rights are UN agreements, the UK is not leaving the UN,  although it might be worth pointing out at this juncture that the UK is currently doing far better at reducing carbon emissions than other EU member states so that can hardly be a motive for leaving.

populism? there is a connection between trump and brexit in that those that voted for them, really do no like the people telling them they should not be voting for them, indeed, many voted the way they did just to annoy certain sections of society.

source of our problems? you need to define problems, but people in depressed regions of northern england have had no industry since thatcher and no jobs worthy of human dignity, the fact that large numbers of EU citizens then show up and replace the machine car washes to do jobs that should be mechanized did not go down well, the guy in the jaguar smoking a cigar telling them that "EU was good for business and your a racist if you disagree" was the final straw. it really is very simple why the vote went the way it did. i sat through the campaign watching the remain side and wincing over and over again at their misunderstanding of the situation. i voted remain as an academic it make sense, despite my suspiscion that the EU will grow into something less benign. Howver, i was not in the least surprised by the result, in the end i thought the vote would be further towards leave.

[longgone]

9 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There may be several winners in the race to move to EV's but VW, Toyota or Hyundai won't be interested in  building an integrated  plant in the UK.  After JLR's implosion Tesla is pretty much the last chance of a getting a plant large enough to give the UK the critical mass it needs to create a local supply chain. 

Another reason for Tesla wanting to manufacture in the UK is their registration as an electric supply utility. This is thought to be related to their virtual grid software, where all the Tesla cars and storage systems can be used to balance demand on the grid potentially saving tens of billions on the investment needed to update the grid to cope with the move to renewables.  

Tesla are currently making a 30% margin on their newest models, something other manufactures can only dream of, so plenty of room for price cuts when, or if, the other suppliers catch up. Not looking good for VW at the moment, they are just beginning to realise that EV's are more about your software engineering than your metal bashing abilities.  

 

if a decline in living standards is on the cards maybe investing in ev technology is not the best thing to do right now anyway. 

technology advancements can only be worthwhile if you have someone to pay for the end product ultimately. 

30% less of the cheapest tesla 43k is still far more than the mass market will pay anyway. so that comment is worthless. 

metal bashing ability though is tesla`s Achilles heel and it`s build quality and design its like all the expertise is put into the systems and the rest is an after thought.  

no idea of their grid power balancing plans. 

[dryrot]

36 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

I think it is best understood as a simple populist doctorine, including a presumption that the world is not that connected:
- There is not requirement for close co-operation with neighbouring nations or further afield (e.g. climate change, trade etc)
- The EU is the cause of most of our problems
- The best approach is traditional British approach and trust in the traditional hierarchy

We can see where that approach gets us.

Again, because you seem unable to argue for the EU, you have to fantasise about others' views?

- There is not requirement for close co-operation with neighbouring nations or further afield (e.g. climate change, trade etc)

Er, no. Out of the EU we can and will continue to work with other countries on global issues. (We just wont be paying £1bn a month to have an unelected bureaucracy making our laws, we'll have control over our borders etc)

- The EU is the cause of most of our problems

the EU is a problem, certainly. Expensive, anti-democratic and wasteful. I would'nt say it was the cause of most problems, but deffo does'nt help.

- The best approach is traditional British approach and trust in the traditional hierarchy

??? We will still have our own issues to deal with, but will be able to address them ourselves. 

Edited May 31, 2020 by dryrot