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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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3 hours ago, rockerboy said:

Only recently, project fear was in full flow - but now everyone can see that it was a complete lie, are we now saying their has to be dividend when leaving the EU?

 

 

Brexit will soon have cost the UK more than all of its payments to the EU over the last 47 years put together

"As the U.K. comes to terms with its new trading relationship with the EU and grapples with the productivity challenge that has hindered growth since the financial crisis, the annual cost of Brexit is likely to keep increasing," Hanson told Bloomberg.

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

😁

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14 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Brexit will soon have cost the UK more than all of its payments to the EU over the last 47 years put together

"As the U.K. comes to terms with its new trading relationship with the EU and grapples with the productivity challenge that has hindered growth since the financial crisis, the annual cost of Brexit is likely to keep increasing," Hanson told Bloomberg.

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

😁

.....but I'm sure that some leavers will put it all down to 'groupthink'.... 'they' all thought it would be bad...and now it is bad = 'groupthink' (and most definately not reality at play).

Nice one....we are starting to get some perspective here...

 

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24 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Brexit will soon have cost the UK more than all of its payments to the EU over the last 47 years put together

"As the U.K. comes to terms with its new trading relationship with the EU and grapples with the productivity challenge that has hindered growth since the financial crisis, the annual cost of Brexit is likely to keep increasing," Hanson told Bloomberg.

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

😁

And all done to placate a bunch of xenophobic bigots. What an utter joke England has turned into. 

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

Is any part of the UK motor industry owned here? I'm sure there may be small parts but I would have thought that the vast majority is owned overseas and therefore there's always the possibility, Brexit or no, that it could be transferred abroad, although with marques like Rolls Royce and Bentley that might be difficult.

Oh dear.....but on the plus side...looks like you have found yourself a pool of ready made excuses.

Within the UK, England remained the country with the largest proportion of foreign-owned businesses (85.8%) operating there.

The majority of foreign-owned UK businesses were European; these businesses represented 55.6% of total foreign-owned businesses (13,542 businesses) and contributed £152.7 billion (47.1%) to total aGVA generated by foreign-owned businesses.

Edited by IMHAL

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53 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

And all done to placate a bunch of xenophobic bigots. What an utter joke England has turned into. 

Let me check Leavers' cheatsheet. I guess the answer is "Remoaner propaganda/nothing to do with Brexit." or "You can't put a price on freedom."

Cheatsheet

Bad economic news? - "Remoaner propaganda/nothing to do with Brexit."

Why are we seeing no upsides only downsides? - "Give it time."

Key industries collapse? - "They're dinosaurs that we don't need."

Major companies relocate elsewhere? - "It was time we rebalanced the economy."

Millions of jobs lost? - "You can't put a price on freedom."

Trade deal negotiations looking disastrous? - "All the fault of those evil Europeans."

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10 minutes ago, slawek said:

Let me check Leavers' cheatsheet. I guess the answer is "Remoaner propaganda/nothing to do with Brexit." or "You can't put a price on freedom."

Cheatsheet

Bad economic news? - "Remoaner propaganda/nothing to do with Brexit."

Why are we seeing no upsides only downsides? - "Give it time."

Key industries collapse? - "They're dinosaurs that we don't need."

Major companies relocate elsewhere? - "It was time we rebalanced the economy."

Millions of jobs lost? - "You can't put a price on freedom."

Trade deal negotiations looking disastrous? - "All the fault of those evil Europeans."

Sometimes freedom comes with consequences...

tumblr_p2qdtj63Qo1u501aoo2_400.gifv

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5 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Sometimes freedom comes with consequences...

tumblr_p2qdtj63Qo1u501aoo2_400.gifv

Let them feel the pain. They even have a special place in hell. For time being, before they leave us for good, we can create them Leaver Masochism Centers and charge them for the service.

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2 hours ago, jonb2 said:

Brexit will soon have cost the UK more than all of its payments to the EU over the last 47 years put together

"As the U.K. comes to terms with its new trading relationship with the EU and grapples with the productivity challenge that has hindered growth since the financial crisis, the annual cost of Brexit is likely to keep increasing," Hanson told Bloomberg.

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

😁

£200bn in lost economic growth by the end of 2020.

Is that a lot?

:blink:

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22 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

£200bn in lost economic growth by the end of 2020.

Is that a lot?

:blink:

I'm not sure where these figures come from.

UK GDP around £2000 bn

£130 bn loss in 3.5 years is not 3% but 6%

The loss amounts to £40 bn / annum = 2% ( but £70 bn in 2020?)

He says the economy would be 3% larger so £2000/0.97 = approx £2060 bn ie £60 bn larger

???

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3 hours ago, crouch said:

Is any part of the UK motor industry owned here? I'm sure there may be small parts but I would have thought that the vast majority is owned overseas and therefore there's always the possibility, Brexit or no, that it could be transferred abroad, although with marques like Rolls Royce and Bentley that might be difficult.

My partner knows people who've recently been made redundant from a Ford factory in Spain.

There's also a practice there of students on work experience being coerced into remaining on student contracts (E400 for a 40 hour week) illegally, when they should be on full time contracts.

So much for the much vaunted EU workers rights.

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8 minutes ago, crouch said:

I'm not sure where these figures come from.

UK GDP around £2000 bn

£130 bn loss in 3.5 years is not 3% but 6%

The loss amounts to £40 bn / annum = 2% ( but £70 bn in 2020?)

He says the economy would be 3% larger so £2000/0.97 = approx £2060 bn ie £60 bn larger

???

Here's the breakdown.

1*hNZSSVc79YSQPqql1MwSTg.png

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12 minutes ago, yodigo said:

My partner knows people who've recently been made redundant from a Ford factory in Spain.

There's also a practice there of students on work experience being coerced into remaining on student contracts (E400 for a 40 hour week) illegally, when they should be on full time contracts.

So much for the much vaunted EU workers rights.

There's also a big push to go EV on a much shorter timescale than previously envisaged. How practical this is I don't know but one thing is certain; it will up end the car industry and render much of it redundant.

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6 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Here's the breakdown.

1*hNZSSVc79YSQPqql1MwSTg.png

That doesn't really tell you very much. In any case 3% loss of GDP over 3 and a bit years is a lot. Admittedly there's been a lot of uncertainty but 1% a year; seems a lot to me. These are his calculations not mine which are double and even less credible.

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

That doesn't really tell you very much. In any case 3% loss of GDP over 3 and a bit years is a lot. Admittedly there's been a lot of uncertainty but 1% a year; seems a lot to me. These are his calculations not mine which are double and even less credible.

He seems to be assuming (can't access Bloomberg) that without Brexit the UK would have matched the G7 rate of growth since 2016.

Bit optimistic that, especially with Trump's casino spending holding the average up.

 

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29 minutes ago, crouch said:

That doesn't really tell you very much. In any case 3% loss of GDP over 3 and a bit years is a lot. Admittedly there's been a lot of uncertainty but 1% a year; seems a lot to me. These are his calculations not mine which are double and even less credible.

Bloomberg economists use a model which links UK GDP growth to the growth of G-7 countries. Based on this model the UK grew 1% less than it should. Total loss over 3 years is 6% (1% first year, 2% second year, 3% third year). This doesn't include a hit due to the weaker GBP, which adds additional 10% per year.    

Image result for uk gdp growth"

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Cl9fuReq7WUJ:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-billion-and-counting-the-cost-of-brexit-for-the-u-k+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

Edited by slawek

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6 minutes ago, slawek said:

Bloomberg economists use a model which links UK GDP growth to the growth of G-7 countries. Based on this model the UK grew 1% less than it should. Total loss over 3 years is 6% (1% first year, 2% second year, 3% third year). This doesn't include a hit due to the weaker GBP, which adds additional 10%.    

Image result for uk gdp growth"

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Cl9fuReq7WUJ:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-billion-and-counting-the-cost-of-brexit-for-the-u-k+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

Well the 6% is my number but the number quoted is 3%.

Also the exchange rate effect is subsumed in the £ GDP numbers.

Furthermore, you would have to carry out a cyclical adjustment for all G7 members before deriving GDP numbers but I'm not sure whether that's been done.

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2 minutes ago, crouch said:

Well the 6% is my number but the number quoted is 3%.

Also the exchange rate effect is subsumed in the £ GDP numbers.

Furthermore, you would have to carry out a cyclical adjustment for all G7 members before deriving GDP numbers but I'm not sure whether that's been done.

The current GDP level is 3% lower, but cumulatively over 3 years is 6% (1%+2%+3%).

Currency impact is not included in GDP, the GDP growth is measured in local currency. Exchange rate impacts how much we can buy from the world.  

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8 minutes ago, slawek said:

The current GDP level is 3% lower, but cumulatively over 3 years is 6% (1%+2%+3%).

Currency impact is not included in GDP, the GDP growth is measured in local currency. Exchange rate impacts how much we can buy from the world.  

Exchange rate must surely be included in GDP in the net exports element which ( I assume) is at realised values.

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Exchange rate has an impact on GDP in local currency but it is indirect and it is much smaller than for GDP in current $. 

As you can see a drop of GDP in current $ from 2016 to 2018 is around 10%,  using constant 2010 exchange rate the drop is around 1.5%. 

 image.png.bec6036993ec628c1f7a81ffce71cefe.png 

image.png.4d1077e7ecfd4789cd5cc0938f24e3d7.png

image.png.45e85b94b6741b58642d1e399a853d2d.png

Edited by slawek

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1 hour ago, Huggy said:

This sounds pretty serious. Apocalyptic even.

You guys should have said something sooner!

Interesting comment. I suppose that one of the claims of leave ie that we pay needlessly into the EU coffers is soundly been usurped by these figures....does not impress you or make you think better?

I respect that there is more to the argument than economics, but it would help if the economics at least can be acknowledged to be detrimental. At least then the conversation can move on to the softer arguments.

Edited by IMHAL

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Watching newsnight this evening.....interesting version of events on state aid..... we provide less state aid than the majority of other EU countries..... ie we have been the biggest proponents of not interfering in failing businesses...yet have used the EU as a punch bag to blame them for not being able to provide state aid...due to EU rules.... how bizarre is that.....    

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5 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Watching newsnight this evening.....interesting version of events on state aid..... we provide less state aid than the majority of other EU countries..... ie we have been the biggest proponents of not interfering in failing businesses...yet have used the EU as a punch bag to blame them for not being able to provide state aid...due to EU rules.... how bizarre is that.....    

Since when Brexit makes sense? Leavers have not been able to articulate any benefits so far. 

I see Brexit now as

1) unwashed, we want Brexit because we voted for it. A pyrrhic victory for them taking into account all negative consequences.

2) elites,  finally free from the EU constraints to do what they want, mainly getting rich at an expense of unwashed

 

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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