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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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The BMG poll after the GE is consistent with the previous polls showing a few percent lead for remaining in the EU. It is yet to be see how this translates into the support for the Rejoin. My guess based on when people want to have another referendum is that the support for the Rejoin is close to support for staying in the EU.  42% wants to have another referendum in the next 10 years vs 38% think it should be after 10 years or never.

"More than four in 10 want to have a say on rejoining the EU in the next decade, with 18% wanting a second referendum in the next year, 15% within the next five years, and 9% in the next six to 10 years.

Ten percent did not believe there should be a referendum within the next 11 years, while 28% said there should not be another at all."

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/bmg-polling-on-eu-membership-and-brexit-1-6462265

 

 

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4 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

You are equating the EU ref to being between Leaving one form of governance vs no governance at all. As though leaving the EU would leave a power vacuum for the U.K. as if we don’t already have our own system.

Bye for now. Might talk to you later after another 100 pages of your repetitive tripe.

Obviously it's an analogy but it appears to have gone over your head.....so that it is totally obvious to you..... we voted to leave the EU....but not the deal to replace it with.....  ie analogous to 'not Kier Starmer'.

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4 hours ago, Huggy said:

Completely facetious of course, but the point I feel is important. If he's been in power for many years, and the members voted initially for someone else, then the question is fair. A bloodless revolution (no deaths as I understand it).

But yes, if after 3.5 years of the leadership contest, and the millionnaire wife of an ex-oinkvestment banker Gina Miller, and the millionnaire landlord Tony Blair, have been fighting to keep Keir in, then don't be surprised if a non-Keir person wins the votes.

I forgot to add that members who didn't vote for Keir would also be racist and stupid. Thanks for adding the latter in (bold, above)

I do agree that there are more ways to exactly not be in the EU than in it. 200+ countries are not in it, 28 are in it for now, all with their own exceptions and differences. There are only two that the electorate should decide IMO, in or out. The details can be decided elsewhere.

No, not faceatious at all. It was always clear that many Brexiteers had strong views on what type of Brexit was acceptable....therefore any type of Brexit was not at all acceptable to all....so a pretty good analogy...but an analogy none the less and now water under the bridge...

 The only thing that is of relevance now is 'will Brexit deliver'....less than 5 years to get a verdict on this. Let's hope there is more than bluster behind the Brexit curtain....tick tock.

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14 hours ago, GregBowman said:

Or markets are imperfect only someone who has never run a business and writes text books would think they are 😉

Obviously took a real scientist to point this out to the hog goblins of Economics 

Mathematical laws of Nature are beyond human invention, intervention or convention.

In contrast, without human agreement and/or regulation, markets and prices do not exist.

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13 hours ago, pig said:

Er ... did you read my post ?

Anyway who cares ? That’s the whole point about  London.

Btw some racist pr4t wailing about black people wearing Rolex is as much a Londoner as anybody. London has racist pr4ts too.

Or you could be from Sri Lanka, meet and fall in love with an Austrian. You could have moved out to the sticks and moved back because you realised people are more important than place. Looked her/him in the eyes  and understand in your gut that’s the world, that’s the unlimited horizon.

That’s really what life is about. Feck Brexit and all who slave in her :)

 

I replied with my interpretation to your post.

I was not referring to black people at all in regards to beemers And Rolex's my post was about songs glorifying these things as if they are God like in modern music.

Maybe it is you who is racist considering I Said I liked blues music in the original post, strange that considering where the blues was born.

Your semantics compass is off kilter 😄

Too much word twisting in the brexit thread it's as if its 2nd nature now.

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4 hours ago, maffo in oxford said:

Just been awarded two new contracts at work, fit out of commercial premises for two companies expanding into the UK. One a software company, the other specialises in agricultural manufacturing.

 

Viva la Brexit 🍾

Because of or in spite of Brexit?

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7 hours ago, Huggy said:

It also means Keir Starmer's leadership bid is toast if she's backing it.

Out of interest, can the Labour leadership votes have a 2nd one just to confirm the members' decision at any point? If the members didn't know for whom they were voting for example? Not after 5 or 10 years of course, but immediately before even taking office.

That could be one way of deciding it with the correct answer.

Ho ho.  I'm going to pinch that if you don't mind.

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1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Because of or in spite of Brexit?

More in spite of, rather than because of I suppose, given Brexit hasn't happened just yet.

It will remain to be seen how prospects continue, I would have thought the UK was due a recession anyway at some point in the near future.

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47 minutes ago, maffo in oxford said:

More in spite of, rather than because of I suppose, given Brexit hasn't happened just yet.

It will remain to be seen how prospects continue, I would have thought the UK was due a recession anyway at some point in the near future.

Yeah get those Brexit excuses in early. 🙄

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4 hours ago, maffo in oxford said:

More in spite of, rather than because of I suppose, given Brexit hasn't happened just yet.

It will remain to be seen how prospects continue, I would have thought the UK was due a recession anyway at some point in the near future.

Good news.

The prospects of a BRINO deal with Europe together with a £100bn spending boost from Bozo (Marxism!) have inspired HSBC and JP Morgan to lift their 2020 UK growth forecasts from 1.0% to 1.1%.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-7876935/Boris-100bn-spending-plan-hopes-EU-deal-help-lift-mood-economy.html

 

 

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10 hours ago, slawek said:

The BMG poll after the GE is consistent with the previous polls showing a few percent lead for remaining in the EU. It is yet to be see how this translates into the support for the Rejoin. My guess based on when people want to have another referendum is that the support for the Rejoin is close to support for staying in the EU.  42% wants to have another referendum in the next 10 years vs 38% think it should be after 10 years or never.

"More than four in 10 want to have a say on rejoining the EU in the next decade, with 18% wanting a second referendum in the next year, 15% within the next five years, and 9% in the next six to 10 years.

Ten percent did not believe there should be a referendum within the next 11 years, while 28% said there should not be another at all."

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/bmg-polling-on-eu-membership-and-brexit-1-6462265

 

 

If the pollsters had got it right remain would of course have won.

The final BMG poll in June 2016 had remain 7 per cent ahead.  Given their latest poll has remain only ahead by 4 then there has been a 3 per cent shift to leave since the referendum - leave wins by 53.5 to 46.5%

https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgherald-final-eu-referendum-poll/

Or we could just move on and accept real votes - not opinion polls!

Edited by MARTINX9

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35 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

If the pollsters had got it right remain would of course have won.

The final BMG poll in June 2016 had remain 7 per cent ahead.  Given their latest poll has remain only ahead by 4 then there has been a 3 per cent shift to leave since the referendum - leave wins by 53.5 to 46.5%

https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgherald-final-eu-referendum-poll/

Or we could just move on and accept real votes - not opinion polls!

We have no option but the accept the (gamed) result of the December GE. 

As for moving on? After we have left the EU, many will be concentrating on rejoining. 

Rolling over and accepting it is not an option.

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56 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

If the pollsters had got it right remain would of course have won.

The final BMG poll in June 2016 had remain 7 per cent ahead.  Given their latest poll has remain only ahead by 4 then there has been a 3 per cent shift to leave since the referendum - leave wins by 53.5 to 46.5%

https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgherald-final-eu-referendum-poll/

Or we could just move on and accept real votes - not opinion polls!

And how do you know that they didn’t change their modelling after getting it so wrong in 2016. Oh yeah you don’t. 🙄

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14 hours ago, maffo in oxford said:

Just been awarded two new contracts at work, fit out of commercial premises for two companies expanding into the UK. One a software company, the other specialises in agricultural manufacturing.

 

Viva la Brexit 🍾

You mean foreign companies? I have probably mentioned before, for exactly the same reason that some UK firms are relocating to the EU, some foreign firms are going to need to relocate to the UK. People seem unable or unwilling to grasp it.

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1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

18 days until we leave the EU.

As Churchill said, this is not the end, nor the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.

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1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

As Churchill said, this is not the end, nor the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.

Wasn’t that regarding war against the Nazis?

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8 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

What's the difference? 🙂

Well - Ursula von de Leyen does come across as a bit militant - but I think that is a bit to strong.. 😉

 

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18 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Well - Ursula von de Leyen does come across as a bit militant - but I think that is a bit to strong.. 😉

 

Yup, fecking EU Nazis

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/01/4-most-unfortunate-nazi-eu-comparisons-made-brexiteers

How to win friends and influence them. Apparently we need European allies. Not sure why, do you?

https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-abandoning-trump-iran-us-withdraw-leadership-world-qassem-soleiman2020-1?r=US&IR=T

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-us-defence/minister-says-britain-must-reduce-military-dependence-on-u-s-report-idUKKBN1ZA0XH

Hopefully we'll celebrate the great 31st with another defence company sale. Got to pay for the New Nuremberg rally somehow.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/12/festival-of-brexit-boss-120m-event-will-prove-cynics-wrong-martin-green

Look forward to the homeless nurses doing what they did at the 2012 Olympics opening ceremony. Hopefully all the faces are fully Aryan too. 🙂

 

Edited by jonb2

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1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

18 days until we leave the EU.

Just another day, nobody will notice anything different.😉

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Just now, winkie said:

Just another day, nobody will notice anything different.😉

A farewell kiss - then a nudge of the supertanker as we take divergent trajectories...

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8 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

If the pollsters had got it right remain would of course have won.

The final BMG poll in June 2016 had remain 7 per cent ahead.  Given their latest poll has remain only ahead by 4 then there has been a 3 per cent shift to leave since the referendum - leave wins by 53.5 to 46.5%

https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgherald-final-eu-referendum-poll/

Or we could just move on and accept real votes - not opinion polls!

I intentionally used words " consistent with the previous polls". A single poll with has around 8% error margin so it is not possible to claim the majority based on it when a poll is so tight.  However taking into around 100 polls done before, which combined has 1% error margin, it is more likely than not that the GE has not dented the public support for Remain and this option has still the majority. 

In my post was mainly trying to make a point that the quoted poll makes a strong case that Rejoining is as popular as Remaining. The public view regarding the EU has not changed due to the GE and the UK very likely departure on 31/01.  

The referendum you mentioned was almost 4 years ago, lots of water has passed under the bridge since then and as those 100 polls show the public has changed their mind. Why can you just accept the reality that we are now being dragged out of the EU against the will of people?  If you don't like opinion polls why are you so against to another referendum? My guess is you don't care about democracy only to get what you want.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls-2/

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It looks either BJ needs to extend the transition period for another 5 years or there will be a mess in the NI with the UK in breach of the WA.  

I guess he will choose the second option so buckle up for a conflict with the EU and the UK losing the remaining credibility on the world stage. 

HMRC needs a few years to build systems and infrastructure to support the NI arrangements and all of this is dependent on a trade deal, which has not been yet negotiated. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/13/brexit-irish-border-uk-northern-ireland

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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