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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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10 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You will have to have a look for yourself. the DE's clunky software doesn't provide a way of easily searching for specific stories/comments.

 

I understand. Well, next time your browsing the express and you spot one, don't hesitate to flag it up for me.

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So it's the roaring 20s. The year we're OUT. Public mood will shift as we go into transition and the symbolic trappings of membership fall quickly away.

It'll be 'make the best of it' now for most Brits.

Prominent leave and remain campaigners calling for a 'decade of reconnection' in their open letter today. I don't see any rejoin headlines. Even the Gruniad has accepted it's over. I expect much of the sniping will subside now, given there's no quick positive outcome to balance against it - continued remainerism as a withering grudge, best expelled. It is letting go time. Fascinating now to see how the Brit pro-EU voice of the last three years crosses into political representation, if at all, or whether ex-remainers turn away from idea of any 5/10 year rejoining. It was always my hope we'd leave under a deal and a long transition would foster a reassessment (and maybe even another ref) but I fear that's gone after the bitter passions unleashed resisting the vote for so long. That battle's lost, this new Parliament is the razed and salted land and there'll be no reassessment before a GE.

So what happens at the coming talks? The pro-EU lobby like the sound of the EU hard line on alignment, LPF, fisheries etc. They see no other way. The hard leavers want the same blunt dogma from the Brit team. I think most of the big member states understand that we can never be treated like a small 3rd country, we're too powerful, too close, too useful - not to mention there are millions of our citizens interspersed and entangled. We're not Canada. Equally, the wiser govt players know the pitfalls of the Brexit dream on the outside, the sham of going it alone.

So what's best case? With the constrictions, expectations and obligations, perhaps a fudge, in time-honoured EU tradition. A limited FTA, with some alignment, that's not quite alignment. More fudge for the City. But not much else. A lot more hassle for business, and a lot of state subsidies for those hit worst. And no extension. I don't see what the Brit team gains from spinning it out, they know they won't be getting much.

There's been much talk, gushing and condemnation of trade potential outside the bloc - it's something the remain camp have always needed to undermine, and the leave boosters put up to defend it have never seemed credible. But the truth is that none of us know. And more to the point, none of us know what the Brit public will make of it. But that cat will be out of the bag soon. There will be calls for trophies.

I don't think there's much chance of Boris extending before July 1st. Talk over the last few days that the EU can extend again in December, if they wanted to - legal arguments over this but if it's full state agreement I'm sure it could be done. But all the signs are that we'll move to another showdown in the late year.

That in mind, there's no real crunch in sight for 10 months or more. So I'm ducking out until then. Will post today  - the first day of the Extra-EU Brit decade - and be back for your erudition at year end. Good luck and prosperity to you all.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, thehowler said:

So it's the roaring 20s. The year we're OUT. Public mood will shift as we go into transition and the symbolic trappings of membership fall quickly away.

It'll be 'make the best of it' now for most Brits.

Prominent leave and remain campaigners calling for a 'decade of reconnection' in their open letter today. I don't see any rejoin headlines. Even the Gruniad has accepted it's over. I expect much of the sniping will subside now, given there's no quick positive outcome to balance against it - continued remainerism as a withering grudge, best expelled. It is letting go time. Fascinating now to see how the Brit pro-EU voice of the last three years crosses into political representation, if at all, or whether ex-remainers turn away from idea of any 5/10 year rejoining. It was always my hope we'd leave under a deal and a long transition would foster a reassessment (and maybe even another ref) but I fear that's gone after the bitter passions unleashed resisting the vote for so long. That battle's lost, this new Parliament is the razed and salted land and there'll be no reassessment before a GE.

So what happens at the coming talks? The pro-EU lobby like the sound of the EU hard line on alignment, LPF, fisheries etc. They see no other way. The hard leavers want the same blunt dogma from the Brit team. I think most of the big member states understand that we can never be treated like a small 3rd country, we're too powerful, too close, too useful - not to mention there are millions of our citizens interspersed and entangled. We're not Canada. Equally, the wiser govt players know the pitfalls of the Brexit dream on the outside, the sham of going it alone.

So what's best case? With the constrictions, expectations and obligations, perhaps a fudge, in time-honoured EU tradition. A limited FTA, with some alignment, that's not quite alignment. More fudge for the City. But not much else. A lot more hassle for business, and a lot of state subsidies for those hit worst. And no extension. I don't see what the Brit team gains from spinning it out, they know they won't be getting much.

There's been much talk, gushing and condemnation of trade potential outside the bloc - it's something the remain camp have always needed to undermine, and the leave boosters put up to defend it have never seemed credible. But the truth is that none of us know. And more to the point, none of us know what the Brit public will make of it. But that cat will be out of the bag soon. There will be calls for trophies.

I don't think there's much chance of Boris extending before July 1st. Talk over the last few days that the EU can extend again in December, if they wanted to - legal arguments over this but if it's full state agreement I'm sure it could be done. But all the signs are that we'll move to another showdown in the late year.

That in mind, there's no real crunch in sight for 10 months or more. So I'm ducking out until then. Will post today  - the first day of the Extra-EU Brit decade - and be back for your erudition at year end. Good luck and prosperity to you all.

 

 

I am afraid for you the mood among Remainers is different, see a sample below. This is far from over, not surprisingly if you ignore the will of the majority. There is a fundamental difference of views between Remainers and Leavers, which cannot be bridged. On one side progressive, inclusive, international, compassionate, on other one backward, reclusive, nationalistic and selfish.

You, Leavers, own this Brexit mess until we have a chance to reverse it. The UK has already lost around 4% of GDP, 10% of GBP value, losing funds and people in research and this is even before actually leaving the EU.

20s will be time when younger generations take power from the boomer generations. This shift of the control will likely translate into big changes in the UK, better redistribution of assets and income, fairer and more open society and rejoining the EU too.  Brexit is the last spasm of the British empire,  powered by delusions of those who benefited from the prosperity of the last 40 years.  

 

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19 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Within the WTO, you have to treat all third countries the same..

We could treat all third countries the same and impose tariffs on all imported goods manufactured using labour or environmental practices that are below UK standards.

The UK has some of the most stringent labour rights and environmental standards in the world, legislated for in the Working Time Regulations 1998, the Employment Rights Act 1996, the Pension Acts, the Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act 1992 and the Environmental Protection Act 1990.  Imposing tariffs on imported goods manufactured using labour or environmental practices that are below these standards would encourage our trading partners to improve their labour and environmental practices.  The UK would assess manufacturers' compliance with these standards and offer advice to help them achieve compliance with these standards and consequent tariff-free trade.

For example, placing further limitation of antibiotic use in animal husbandry in order to address the growing problem of antibiotic resistance and improving on the Common Fisheries Policy would raise UK standards above EU standards and allow tariffs on imported goods from the EU as above.

Edited by Will!

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18 minutes ago, slawek said:

20s will be time when younger generations take power from the boomer generations. This shift of the control will likely translate into big changes in the UK, better redistribution of assets and income, fairer and more open society and rejoining the EU too.  Brexit is the last spasm of the British empire,  powered by delusions of those who benefited from the prosperity of the last 40 years.  

 

A very typical delusional comfort blanket that totally ignores the facts.

Society is aging and as it gets older it becomes more conservative, as it has been doing for quite a few years as it is (see the work of James Tilley). 

Tilley has identified that people are around 0.35% more conservative with each year that passes and that this is more due to psychology rather than circumstance so generational cohorts have less influence than might be thought.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/03/do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics

In a nutshell we'll have that fairly small sliver of the young determined to change pitched against the rest who are resistant to change.

Keep drinking the KoolAid; you'll need it.

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...different times today than when 67% of voters in the first referendum decided to join the European Community in 1975.......even then there have been people who have never accepted that democratic vote and have been wanting to break free ever since.....what leave actually means to them is variable and controversial, the same as how joining has evolved over time......next month is just the start of another journey where people will be watching and observing very closely......closer than they have ever been able to do in past times, today we have more access to immediate information, have the tools available that past generations did not.....sit back, relax and enjoy the ride.;)

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50 minutes ago, slawek said:

I am afraid for you the mood among Remainers is different, see a sample below.

 

You've lost your prophets, preachers and backers, slawek. Read the FT editorial, How Britain can prosper. Even the FT has turned.

Seems strange to describe someone as a remainer any longer. It's Christmas past.

Time to reconnect.

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20 minutes ago, crouch said:

A very typical delusional comfort blanket that totally ignores the facts.

Society is aging and as it gets older it becomes more conservative, as it has been doing for quite a few years as it is (see the work of James Tilley). 

Tilley has identified that people are around 0.35% more conservative with each year that passes and that this is more due to psychology rather than circumstance so generational cohorts have less influence than might be thought.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/03/do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics

In a nutshell we'll have that fairly small sliver of the young determined to change pitched against the rest who are resistant to change.

Keep drinking the KoolAid; you'll need it.

I think Boris just won in every socio-economic group. Startling. The "oop North Tory heartlands" as Private Eye puts it.

Will they move to the centre as Brexit unfolds?

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14 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Time to reconnect.

No way. Brexit or no Brexit, I will never connect with this hateful government.

There's little I can do about it other than hold my nose, like I did with NuLabour, but don't ask me to like the toads.

Edited by Bruce Banner

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1 hour ago, slawek said:

You, Leavers, own this Brexit mess until we have a chance to reverse it.

What, another one?

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33 minutes ago, crouch said:

Society is aging and as it gets older it becomes more conservative, 

There is a bump of baby boomers who are older, however they are going to die off at an increasingly rapid rate. Once that bump dies off we will have less of an 'aging' society and therefore less Conservatives.

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10 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

No way. Brexit or no Brexit, I will never connect with this hateful government.

There's little I can do about it other than hold my nose, like I did with NuLabour, but don't ask me to like the toads.

You don't have to like Boris and the govt. I'm talking about best outcomes for the UK. It's not what I wanted either, but I have some empathy with the urge to reconnect. I'm tired of the rift. If it has to continue, at least let it be in the form of some new political direction with positive intent.

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13 minutes ago, thehowler said:

You've lost your prophets, preachers and backers, slawek. Read the FT editorial, How Britain can prosper. Even the FT has turned.

Seems strange to describe someone as a remainer any longer. It's Christmas past.

Time to reconnect.

ProEU people do not need prophets and preachers. It is a matter of convictions.   

I've not read the article, I don't have subscription. Based on those tweets I would not say that FT change their view on Brexit.

 

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3 minutes ago, thehowler said:

If it has to continue, at least let it be in the form of some new political direction with positive intent.

How about the annihilation of the ERG/Conservative Party and re-entry to the EU? That's a new political direction with positive intent.

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1 minute ago, slawek said:

ProEU people do not need prophets and preachers. It is a matter of convictions.   

I've not read the article, I don't have subscription. Based on those tweets I would not say that FT change their view on Brexit.

 

Article is open, I think. They made a lot of their Brexit coverage free to view.

On convictions, this ties in with my musings on a new political pro-EU movement. Will we see it emerge or are we stuck with the current format.

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2 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Of course.

Brexiteers hate democracy and refuse to give us a Referendum.

Thats a start.

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41 minutes ago, crouch said:

A very typical delusional comfort blanket that totally ignores the facts.

Society is aging and as it gets older it becomes more conservative, as it has been doing for quite a few years as it is (see the work of James Tilley). 

Tilley has identified that people are around 0.35% more conservative with each year that passes and that this is more due to psychology rather than circumstance so generational cohorts have less influence than might be thought.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/03/do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-young-old-politics

In a nutshell we'll have that fairly small sliver of the young determined to change pitched against the rest who are resistant to change.

Keep drinking the KoolAid; you'll need it.

Irrelevant. Based on data before the referendum. Since 2016 the public has been deeply polarised. The small drift 0.35% per year is small to counter this.

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image.png.d1dcf5e468faa71dd2817c493c0d1df6.png

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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