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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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10 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

That's why we need a hung parliament. We need some more indicative voting.

The problem is that they still don’t know how the EU works.  They’ll spend an inordinate amount of time voting on various customs union options, which in reality solves little in the grand scheme of things..

Edited by Dave Beans
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34 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Is was up to parliament to design our departure, but seeing as its at least two thirds want to remain, a sensible Brexit is all but impossible.

That is why since the referendum a second general election had to be called.....must be telling us something.....most people can work it out.?

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30 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

that the vote to leave has already cost us around 3% of GDP (or to put it another way, by around the £50bn a year required to bring the NHS up to the standard you would expect of one of the worlds riches countries).

I would not dispute this although I do believe that some of the losses to date are postponements rather than losses.

30 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

In addition to the cost to date the foreseeable short/medium term costs of leaving are huge, say another 5% of GDP.

And I wouldn't dispute this either.

30 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

If you don't believe Brexit will somehow enable the UK economy to surge ahead in the medium/long term all we are left with are the huge political and economic costs of Brexit why on earth would you support it. 

That assumes that economic reasons are the only ones that count and they are paramount. They aren't and they aren't.

The problem with this argument is that many of the advantages are abstract whereas many of the losses are real. But to  assume that the abstract isn't important is short sighted; after all freedom is an abstract notion but to most people that is important. If you asked most people which is more important: a guaranteed income but you had to stay in the same place and do as you were told for the rest of your life or - the freedom to change your occupation and move around freely I suspect most would choose the latter.

 

Edited by crouch
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6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Although the slogan "get Brexit done" looks like it will sway enough voters for the Tories to have a working majority the one thing it will not do is get Brexit done.

Boris will not get Brexit done unless he is prepared to accept the BRINO implied by the PD and the available time. Will he be able to get his party to agree to that? I doubt it,

Then we are into either a no deal exit at the end of the 2020 or an extended transition period and years of wrangling over a new treaty that allows the EU and UK to diverge.

Will he pursue a no deal exit? I doubt that for two reasons, first it is not practically possible to be ready for a no deal exit by the end of 2020 and second his premiership would be defined by 5 years of imposing real austerity on a country that has had enough of austerity.

So extended transition and years of wrangling it is!    

 

It's not like all 600 odd MPs are going to rock up in Brussels though and do the deal ? That will be a different team.

While parliament can get on with the job of running the country and passing new legislation that is desperately needed and been sidetracked by pointless Brexit debate.

I don't think may people ever viewed no deal as no deal. Just deal yet to be determined.

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26 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

That's why we need a hung parliament. We need some more indicative voting.

In principal the indicative vote process was a really good idea; with a few caveats.

1. Should have happened much earlier.

2. The selection of which options to vote against should not have been filtered by the speaker.

3. they should have kept going with the votes until a clear winner emerged.

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38 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Exactly this. Parliament had two free rounds of indicative votes and rejected all brexit options:

20190401%20Indicative%20Votes%20Final%20

Could it be a reflection of the fact that none of the available options were supported by anything like a majority of either MPs or the electorate. Remember May's deal was consistently polling at around 25% about the same as the support it received in Parliament (ignoring the payroll vote).

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Could it be a reflection of the fact that none of the available options were supported by anything like a majority of either MPs or the electorate. Remember May's deal was consistently polling at around 25% about the same as the support it received in Parliament (ignoring the payroll vote).

How many know the difference between a customs union and a single market?  A couple of dozen at a push?  Is it down to ignorance? Is this what EU membership has led to? 

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24 minutes ago, crouch said:

The problem with this argument is that many of the advantages are abstract whereas many of the losses are real. But to  assume that the abstract isn't important is short sighted; after all freedom is an abstract notion but to most people that is important.

My problem with the abstract is whenever I speak to Leavers very little of what they complain about has anything to do with the EU.  The anti EU views expressed are always far more about not liking decisions the UK government has freely taken   

24 minutes ago, crouch said:

 

If you asked most people which is more important: a guaranteed income but you had to stay in the same place and do as you were told for the rest of your life or - the freedom to change your occupation and move around freely I suspect most would choose the latter.

 

That sounds like an good argument for keeping FoM.

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12 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Could it be a reflection of the fact that none of the available options were supported by anything like a majority of either MPs or the electorate. Remember May's deal was consistently polling at around 25% about the same as the support it received in Parliament (ignoring the payroll vote).

Yes - I think the indicative voting was just a desperate attempt to try and find common ground in a house where the governing party did not have a majority and even her own MPs were conspiring against her. In retrospect May should have gone as soon as she failed to get a strong majority.

With the benefit of hindsight, Johnson should avoid this.

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7 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

How many know the difference between a customs union and a single market?  A couple of dozen at a push?  Is it down to ignorance? Is this what EU membership has led to? 

To be fair the average MP is quite capable of displaying ignorance on a wide range of topics. 

According to our Ex MP Gavin now Lord Barwell, part of the problem is that neither Parliament or the political parties provide any sort of education program covering the complex issues MPs are expected to legislate on.

When I joined the Commission I had to spend 2 weeks on an induction course that explained its role and operation, by the end I even understood how the budget operated and the UK rebate was calculated.   Surely something similar should have been provided to MPs.     

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15 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

To be fair the average MP is quite capable of displaying ignorance on a wide range of topics. 

According to our Ex MP Gavin now Lord Barwell, part of the problem is that neither Parliament or the political parties provide any sort of education program covering the complex issues MPs are expected to legislate on.

When I joined the Commission I had to spend 2 weeks on an induction course that explained its role and operation, by the end I even understood how the budget operated and the UK rebate was calculated.   Surely something similar should have been provided to MPs.     

If you have the misfortune to watch the select committees, then you see them ignoring what they are told.  They are the ones especially who should be on top of their brief.. Mogg for instance yabbers on about GATT 24, without knowing what it means.  Bone and Jenkyns are on another planet.  Others do sort of “get it”, such as Kinnock, who then come up with the wrong solutions..

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exiting_the_European_Union_Select_Committee

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42 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Could it be a reflection of the fact that none of the available options were supported by anything like a majority of either MPs or the electorate. Remember May's deal was consistently polling at around 25% about the same as the support it received in Parliament (ignoring the payroll vote).

I think it’s a reflection of a Parliment that was 2/3rds full of remainers.

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56 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

My problem with the abstract is whenever I speak to Leavers very little of what they complain about has anything to do with the EU.  The anti EU views expressed are always far more about not liking decisions the UK government has freely taken   

A fairly small sample you will agree. However, more comprehensive surveys indicate that it was abstract reasons that counted most for leavers.

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33 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I think it’s a reflection of a Parliment that was 2/3rds full of remainers.

.....so leavers voted for Brexit and they voted to let the HoC decide what kind of Brexit this would be, knowing that the HoC was 'stuffed full' of remainers.....you couldn't make it up..... how thick is that! 

Leavers would have been better off deciding what type of Brexit they wanted first... at least then they would have had no excuses (which they are very good at), and they could not be accused of gaming the system to boot.

Edited by IMHAL
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51 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

According to our Ex MP Gavin now Lord Barwell, part of the problem is that neither Parliament or the political parties provide any sort of education program covering the complex issues MPs are expected to legislate on.

I think it goes much deeper than that. Most have no appreciation of the complexity and difficulty of government. In a democracy there are many constituencies that government has to pay attention to: if HS2 crosses a bird sanctuary then you just can't ignore the fact and press on; there are pressure groups that have to be heard. I gave an example in an earlier post of what might be meant when it's said that the NHS is underfunded; it's actually a very complicated matter deciding what the size of the NHS should be.

There's also the fact that we've delegated a lot of things either to the EU or to the nations on devolution so the average MP has been deskilled over the years and it shows.  

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16 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

.....so leavers voted for Brexit and they voted to let the HoC decide what kind of Brexit this would be, knowing that the HoC was 'stuffed full' of remainers.....you couldn't make it up..... how thick is that! 

Leavers would have been better off deciding what type of Brexit they wanted first... at least then they would have had no excuses (which they are very good at), and they could not be accused of gaming the system to boot.

Don’t worry - come Friday - the swamp is getting drained.

The electorate are about to remind parliament - who is actually in charge..

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13 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Don’t worry - come Friday - the swamp is getting drained.

The electorate are about to remind parliament - who is actually in charge..

....of course they are.... Boris will have his oven ready gloves on....to give the electorate their oven ready Brexit.. :lol:

I will be waiting patiently for the 'WTF is this!' moment soon after. 

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18 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Ah magnanimous in defeat.

That’s losers consent right there.

How can any reasonable person think that the correct form of action is just to concede defeat to ideologies they think are dangerous or despicable? The leave campaign was run on lies, obfuscation and blame against the other. All ideologies that have in the past been associated with great atrocities.

You think that because you won a popular vote I should just concede and say, ok, you used whatever means necessary to get your ideology through, so now I'll support you?

I know your answer to that is "yes" because you've previously admitted that the end justifies the means.

I'm completely stumped how people can be so morally bankrupt.

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Just now, Bruce Banner said:

It's quiet this afternoon. BJ not taking questions from journalists. Cummings asked activists to keep their heads down?

BJ just repeating the usual nonsense, how could anyone be taken in by this loathsome toff.

They are. Look at what is happening in the world. The UK is following Trumpland. People, and many of them are on this website, DO NOT CARE about the moral case. They care about getting what they want, which is sort unclear but it roughly involves shrinking the world around them and blaming outsiders for their troubles. 

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28 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

How can any reasonable person think that the correct form of action is just to concede defeat to ideologies they think are dangerous or despicable? The leave campaign was run on lies, obfuscation and blame against the other. All ideologies that have in the past been associated with great atrocities.

You think that because you won a popular vote I should just concede and say, ok, you used whatever means necessary to get your ideology through, so now I'll support you?

I know your answer to that is "yes" because you've previously admitted that the end justifies the means.

I'm completely stumped how people can be so morally bankrupt.

...but on the other hand, we cannot remain either...If you think we can, ignore the referendum result, and hope that Brexit will just go away...It won't...The genie is out of the proverbial bottle..

Edited by Dave Beans
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