Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


Recommended Posts

Just now, Dave Beans said:

nope...are we going to rerun this election until the lib dems get a majority?

If that's what you want then go for it but I think the majority of the people would disagree.

What we need is a confirmatory vote between two specific options, a clearly defined mechanism to leave the EU and remain, ie revoke A50.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

If that's what you want then go for it but I think the majority of the people would disagree.

What we need is a confirmatory vote between two specific options, a clearly defined mechanism to leave the EU and remain, ie revoke A50.

I am a traditional lib demmer, but they have lost my vote.  I voted remain, but we now have to leave.  I’ve given two specific options, resulting from the leave vote.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

If that's what you want then go for it but I think the majority of the people would disagree.

What we need is a confirmatory vote between two specific options, a clearly defined mechanism to leave the EU and remain, ie revoke A50.

You're effectively getting that anyway with the election. Vote Tory for Brexit with their deal, Labour for ongoing debate and confirmation votes.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, crouch said:

Not only have I never said that any short term losses will be recovered I certainly have never said that the economy will go on to greater things. I have said repeatedly that I simply don't know where the economy will be in twenty or thirty years time - but neither do you. There is no "unexplained" way because my point is that this is inexplicable. 

The problem you have is that all the evidence is on my side. The very experts who you rely on would admit that the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts beyond the very short term is huge and that such forecasts are virtually worthless.This study:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/15/gdp-predictions-are-reliable-only-in-the-short-term

indicates that GDP forecasts even 22 months ahead were out by 1.3% and forecasters were particularly bad at forecasting recessions! In a twenty year period there will likely be at least two recessions which will likely amend the trajectory of the economy and which, in themselves, will blow holes in any predictions.

You continually confuse forecasts with predictions.

Forecasts, as usually presented, are merely the central case based on what we know today.

As we go forward things always change, hence describing forecasts as right or wrong just demonstrates a lack of understanding. If a forecast is "right" that's just a happy coincidence, it is only "wrong" if it emerges known factors were overlooked or there was some arithmetical error in the production of the forecast.

As such, unless you have some inside information not available to the forecaster it is best to plan on the basis of it being "right" while accepting that the actual turnout can be significantly better or worse.  In the case of Brexit medium term forecasts (ignoring the impossible but including the improbable) range from around  GDP +1% to -18% by 2030. NB As these are forecasts relative to a no Brexit scenario, recessions would affect both scenarios and so have little effect.

 

Edited by Confusion of VIs
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

You're effectively getting that anyway with the election. Vote Tory for Brexit with their deal, Labour for ongoing debate and confirmation votes.

Tory vote is for Brexit.

A non-Tory vote is for Remain.

I think I'll decide what my vote means, thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

You're effectively getting that anyway with the election. Vote Tory for Brexit with their deal, Labour for ongoing debate and confirmation votes.

 

No, because there are other issues like the NHS and taxation. 

The only chance we have of remaining in the EU is to vote tactically to get the Tories out, or at least deny them a majority.

https://www.remainunited.org/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

Here is Scotland, some Labour supporters urging people to vote SNP as Labour has less chance of beating Tories in Edinburgh.

Nobody imagined Tories scaring Labour North of Hadrian wall. 

This is unbelievable. Seems Boris might pull a shock in Scotland AND Wales too.

IF that happens, Tories will touch 350 mark.

 

350 sounds about right.

Maybe even 370.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

No, because there are other issues like the NHS and taxation. 

The only chance we have of remaining in the EU is to vote tactically to get the Tories out, or at least deny them a majority.

https://www.remainunited.org/

You could have simply voted to remain when you were given the chance to do so in 2016.

Maybe in future you should take your voting a bit more seriously.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

We have already voted to leave..

No. The referendum result simply did not support remain compared to an unspecified leave. There has been no vote for a specific leave and there is no evidence that a specific leave would have  gained majority support over remain

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, IMHAL said:

No. The referendum result simply did not support remain compared to an unspecified leave. There has been no vote for a specific leave and there is no evidence that a specific leave would have  gained majority support over remain

Is was up to parliament to design our departure, but seeing as its at least two thirds want to remain, a sensible Brexit is all but impossible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, pig said:

Its the unicorn BJ is riding. He is not fit for office.

Matt Hancock went on to lie about being punched -  apparently assisted by senior journalists - and SM flooded with claims the sick child is fake. 

I guess you could argue its more Cummings than Johnson but really, what's the difference ?

The sense in which I'd partly agree with you is that overall quite possibly more at stake here than Leave/Remain

I think most people just recognise it for what it is, irrelevant muck raking by either side.

It amazes me how anyone can claim one side or the other has any moral high ground.

Best to ignore all of it - and keep your fingers crossed we aren't going to get another 12 months of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, IMHAL said:

No. The referendum result simply did not support remain compared to an unspecified leave. There has been no vote for a specific leave and there is no evidence that a specific leave would have  gained majority support over remain

Is was up to parliament to design our departure, but seeing as its at least two thirds want to remain, a sensible Brexit is all but impossible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I think most people just recognise it for what it is, irrelevant muck raking by either side.

It amazes me how anyone can claim one side or the other has any moral high ground.

Best to ignore all of it - and keep your fingers crossed we aren't going to get another 12 months of it.

Or, depending on your wishes, keep you fingers crossed that tactical voting prevails and the Tories don't get Brexit done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, crouch said:

I'm afraid it won't do. You continuously speculate about where we will end up under Brexit yet are disinclined to indulge in where we will be if we stay, despite the fact, as I say, this is the correct basis of comparison. I would think most people would want to know where they would be under each scenario and to compare a speculative future  with a present state that is assumed not to change is nonsense - and obvious nonsense.

So we agree the distant future is unknowable. I

If so, there is no reason to prefer one over the other apart from by looking at the known/foreseeable implementation costs. 

What we do know is:

that the vote to leave has already cost us around 3% of GDP (or to put it another way, by around the £50bn a year required to bring the NHS up to the standard you would expect of one of the worlds riches countries).

NB Around 2% of the 3% lost is expected to be recovered if we decide to Remain, hence the IFS saying that only the LibDem manifesto was financially credible.

In addition to the cost to date the foreseeable short/medium term costs of leaving are huge, say another 5% of GDP.

If you don't believe Brexit will somehow enable the UK economy to surge ahead in the medium/long term all we are left with are the huge political and economic costs of Brexit why on earth would you support it. 

  

Edited by Confusion of VIs
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Or, depending on your wishes, keep you fingers crossed that tactical voting prevails and the Tories don't get Brexit done.

AFAICT there are 2 choices. One is Tory get Brexit done. Another is hung parliament and at least 12 more months of this, with more votes, more muck raking more wasted time. More absolute nonsense.

If we had exited when we were supposed to then remainers could well be on the way to a rejoin vote by now. Instead the 3.5 wasted years means the chance of that is very slim.

Voting Tory moves the country forwards at least. Another 3 years of MPs arguing amongst themselves, with the current opposition leader not really knowing which side to take ? God no. Just no. And no again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Voting Tory moves the country forwards at least. Another 3 years of MPs arguing amongst themselves, with the current opposition leader not really knowing which side to take ? God no. Just no. And no again.

On the plus side it keeps them too busy to go around making as much of a mess of everything else as usual.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

On the plus side it keeps them too busy to go around making as much of a mess of everything else as usual.

I heard somewhere the HOC is going to get refurbished at huge cost.

I think there should be a new temporary outside environmentally friendly HOC.

That should get things moving at a slightly brisker pace.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

AFAICT there are 2 choices. One is Tory get Brexit done. Another is hung parliament and at least 12 more months of this, with more votes, more muck raking more wasted time. More absolute nonsense.

If we had exited when we were supposed to then remainers could well be on the way to a rejoin vote by now. Instead the 3.5 wasted years means the chance of that is very slim.

Voting Tory moves the country forwards at least. Another 3 years of MPs arguing amongst themselves, with the current opposition leader not really knowing which side to take ? God no. Just no. And no again.

Although the slogan "get Brexit done" looks like it will sway enough voters for the Tories to have a working majority the one thing it will not do is get Brexit done.

Boris will not get Brexit done unless he is prepared to accept the BRINO implied by the PD and the available time. Will he be able to get his party to agree to that? I doubt it,

Then we are into either a no deal exit at the end of the 2020 or an extended transition period and years of wrangling over a new treaty that allows the EU and UK to diverge.

Will he pursue a no deal exit? I doubt that for two reasons, first it is not practically possible to be ready for a no deal exit by the end of 2020 and second his premiership would be defined by 5 years of imposing real austerity on a country that has had enough of austerity.

So extended transition and years of wrangling it is!    

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.