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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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1 minute ago, crouch said:

Well, that's the nub isn't it?

I'm not denying that the NHS may be underfunded but many of these cases are circumstantial.

In any case "underfunding" is a complex notion. Do you fund with the recogntion that the system will have substantial redundancy - say that you design the system on the basis that it will have to cope with a "Black Death" scenario. Or do you build in less redundancy and accept there will be times when demand will exceed supply - in other words a funding regime which is riskier and will throw up instances like this?

You assume too much.

I don't assume anything. I just follow the money. A maxim that serves me well when dealing with Tory thinking.

Try it, you'll like it.

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12 minutes ago, doomed said:

I can't wait for the NHS to be privatised. It literally couldn't get any worse.

Completely unaccountable and a bonfire of tax payers money.

BTW, the USA healthcare is rated 37 - the UK is at 18.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/best-healthcare-in-the-world/

If you think the Tories are not going to sell out to the Americans - I have a bridge you can buy.

 

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17 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

No it isn't Martin.

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/blog/2016/05/how-does-this-years-nhs-budget-compare-historically

" The fact is that the NHS is halfway through its most austere decade ever, with all NHS services facing huge pressures. Accuracy and transparency about of the scale of the problem are crucial steps toward a solution. "

 

Annual percentage change in real NHS spending.png

Interesting that the second highest growth in spending in a single year was under Thatcher and the largest fall was under Callaghan!

None of the above negates my statement - as I never mentioned real terms. 

I merely observed life wasn't perfect in the NHS under any government. And its not always the fault of a lack or money or politicians - but often bad management locally.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/feb/06/mid-staffs-hospital-scandal-guide

 

Edited by MARTINX9
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4 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

There is deep concern that another referendum would break our democracy. But remoaniacs DNGAF about that.

The last one has already broken our democracy since it proved that so many of you do not give a shit about the means or the deceit involved, as long as it gets you what you want.

I consider that broken, already.

So don't expect any sympathy to your pathetic, transparent emotional blackmail "oh we can't break democracy" crap.

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5 hours ago, Exiled Canadian said:

So we're agreed that a 4 year old with pneumonia having to sleep on the floor of a hospital where he has gone for treatment is not satisfactory.  Surely that this happened is, in itself, evidence that the NHS is underfunded?

 

There are more images of 10 years of Tory rule. And yet the thickos will keep voting for it like good little plebiscites. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

Interesting that the second highest growth in spending in a single year was under Thatcher and the largest fall was under Callaghan!

None of the above negates my statement - as I never mentioned real terms. 

I merely observed life wasn't perfect in the NHS under any government. And its not always the fault of a lack or money or politicians - but often bad management locally.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/feb/06/mid-staffs-hospital-scandal-guide

 

 

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2 hours ago, crouch said:

Bluster is a natural reaction to being buttonholed like that and as for the phone why wasn't he arrested for theft?

No.   The immediate reaction is to look at the photo and express real unprompted empathy, via tone of voice and facial expression changes.

Look at how Corbyn reacted when meeting Grenfell fire survivors.  That's how a normal person reacts to these sorts of things.

Johnson is an empathy-less narcissistic void who cares for nothing and no one but himself.

Of course we've known this all along, but his reaction here just makes that fact undeniable.

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13 hours ago, crouch said:

Well that may be the case but many don't believe experts and post poll surveys - like the Ashcroft one I posted - may have been at a sufficient distance that the lurid forecasts of doom by the likes of Osborne and the BOE, were shown not to be forthcoming.

You are of course also assuming that, in the long term, and it is decision for the long term, that Brexit will make us significantly poorer and that, like the lurid forecasts, is just assertion at the moment and may not be believed.

That's my point. Leavers did not vote not caring about the economic impact of their vote, in the main they believed that the country would be no worse off after leaving. They believe this because that is what they were repeated told by the leave campaign. When pollsters asked if people would vote to Leave if that would make them personally poorer the answer was always a resounding no.

 

Accepting that Brexit will most likely leave the country poorer in the long term, compared to remaining, that doesn't require any assumptions as:

 - we are already poorer, 2.5-3% lower GDP despite Carney telling Parliament he spent £60bn to avoid an outright recession

- the real costs that start when we actually leave e.g. +£10bn a year on customs procedures alone, plus the impact of trade frictions will impose an ongoing drag on the economy for many years to come that even in the most optimistic of scenarios will be nowhere near covered by improved trade deal.

The Treasury medium term forecast that the government is refusing to publish is still predicting a total loss of 8-9% of GDP by 2030 (almost unchanged from the original pre vote forecast).

Against this you hope that in some unexplained way Leaving will enable our economy to not only recover those loses but also go on to greater things.  This is a possible but hugely unlikely scenario.     

       

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6 hours ago, crouch said:

The issue is not whether the system is being starved of resources; the issue is whether that starving of resources led to that particular outcome and you don't know that - or do you? Can you provide a direct causal link between government policy and that incident?

Government policy provides the NHS with about a third less money required to provide the NHS compared with what other advanced economies spend on healthcare. As a result per head of the population we have to manage with around two thirds as many nurses, doctors and hospital beds.

Most people would see a strong connection between this and a hospital running out of capacity and beds.

Of course you can always hide behind the impossibility of directly linking every event back to government policy, just like the tobacco companies did with smoking and lung cancer for 40 years, but its not a good look.      

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2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

The last one has already broken our democracy since it proved that so many of you do not give a shit about the means or the deceit involved, as long as it gets you what you want.

I consider that broken, already.

So don't expect any sympathy to your pathetic, transparent emotional blackmail "oh we can't break democracy" crap.

Ah magnanimous in defeat.

That’s losers consent right there.

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22 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The Treasury medium term forecast that the government is refusing to publish is still predicting a total loss of 8-9% of GDP by 2030 (almost unchanged from the original pre vote forecast).

Oh crap. I didn't realise The Treasury themselves had forecast that! That's a complete game changer and I'm voting Lib Dem first thing on Thursday!

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12 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Ah magnanimous in defeat.

That’s losers consent right there.

Why do you think there is no losers consent in this case.

Could it be that a referendum that could only be won by one side promising something that could not be delivered doesn't pass the smell test and is itself seen as undemocratic so undeserving of losers consent.

 

      

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why do you think there is no losers consent in this case.

Could it be that a referendum that could only be won by one side promising something that could not be delivered doesn't pass the smell test and is itself seen as undemocratic so undeserving of losers consent.

 

      

I'm not picking on your quotes in particular, it just so happened that a few popped up at the same time tonight that I felt strongly about.

All the referendum did was ask if we wanted to remain part of a supra-national organisation. Leaving is not something that cannot be delivered. Many, many countries (c90% of the world's countries) are not part of the EU. Why, exactly, can we not be part of that group?

One half of a couple stating to the other that they cannot live without them is, quite frankly, abusive.

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7 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Pathetically emotive.

There is deep concern that another referendum would break our democracy. But remoaniacs DNGAF about that.

...distraction.....the fact is that if any version of Brexit is put up against remain it will most likely be defeated...ergo any specific Brexit will be a minorty outcome ...... leavers denying this democratic test are denying democracy. Fact. Your bluster is very telling.

Edited by IMHAL
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49 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The Treasury medium term forecast that the government is refusing to publish is still predicting a total loss of 8-9% of GDP by 2030 (almost unchanged from the original pre vote forecast).

How do you know this, CoVI? The Treasury forecast hasn't been published. Have you seen it privately?

I'm not disputing the figure btw, it's certainly consistent my own reading/expectations i.e. Rabobank, Institute for Govt (below).

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/Economic impact of Brexit summary.pdf

 

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3 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

...distraction.....the fact is that if any version of Brexit is put up against remain it will most likely be defeated...ergo any specific Brexit will be a minorty outcome ...... leavers denying this democratic test are denying democracy. Fact. Your bluster is very telling.

I know of one version of Brexit that didn't get defeated ? Not too long ago either, and it felt pretty official rather than a kind of internet chatroom bluster, throw away statement type of thing. You did use the word 'fact' though, and I have no arguments aganst that.

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9 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

...distraction.....the fact is that if any version of Brexit is put up against remain it will most likely be defeated...ergo any specific Brexit will be a minorty outcome ...... leavers denying this democratic test are denying democracy. Fact. Your bluster is very telling.

You’re desperate to split the leave vote. It’s pathetic.

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22 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why do you think there is no losers consent in this case.

Could it be that a referendum that could only be won by one side promising something that could not be delivered doesn't pass the smell test and is itself seen as undemocratic so undeserving of losers consent.

 

      

Norway / Swiss brexit has always been easily achievable.

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44 minutes ago, Huggy said:

Oh crap. I didn't realise The Treasury themselves had forecast that! That's a complete game changer and I'm voting Lib Dem first thing on Thursday!

That's because the government refused to publish it, probably because things are unfolding pretty much as forecast. The OBR are not allowed to use it for their forecasting either, don't want to frighten the sheep do we.

 

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12 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

You’re desperate to split the leave vote. It’s pathetic.

But only one version of Brexit can be enacted. What is so utterly pathetic is that leavers want to game the democratic system by grouping multiple none enactable Brexits  as tho they are all the same. They are not. The shame is that leavers are still gaming the democratic system...

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27 minutes ago, Huggy said:

I'm not picking on your quotes in particular, it just so happened that a few popped up at the same time tonight that I felt strongly about.

All the referendum did was ask if we wanted to remain part of a supra-national organisation. Leaving is not something that cannot be delivered. Many, many countries (c90% of the world's countries) are not part of the EU. Why, exactly, can we not be part of that group?

One half of a couple stating to the other that they cannot live without them is, quite frankly, abusive.

If I believed it could have been delivered I would have voted for the promised "even better than membership" Brexit. However, having previously worked in the EU Commission and UK government I knew that, for lots of reasons, it couldn't be and that the Leave campaigns most attractive lines/promises were lies.

We can leave any time we want the only problem is we want to keep at least some of the benefits of membership and don't like the looming costs plus there are complex practical preparations that have to completed first e.g +£10bn a year for a new customs system. NB Anyone who thinks that will be designed and implemented by the end of next year is an optimist of the first order.

Brexit will happen the question now is what type. My view is there are now only two options a BRINO that leaves us as a non voting adjunct to the EU or a No deal with us falling into the US orbit. My guess is that Boris will go for a BRINO.   

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