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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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18 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Boris is self serving and a liar.  I don’t think any other PM in my lifetime has been more so.

Also, if he presided over bad social and NHS policy decisions that could easily claim the lives of more UK citizens than recent wars - far more people three days die on waiting lists than battlefields.

You trusted Cameron then, and didn't think he was self serving? Right.

You think Blair had just cause to go into Iraq?

You agreed with the Falklands war?

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4 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

That is all part of the horse trading that goes with any trade deal, nothing to do with any narrative....no one is naive enough to think this won't happen in any event. The issue is one of negotiating power, and desperation. We have less power outside the EU and we will be in a weak negotiating position. This will have direct consequences on how we will proceed with any US FTA...what we are willing to do in exchange for consessions...within the boundaries of trade and outside of them (ie foreign affairs).

Can you explain to me how being part of the EU helped Scottish single malt whisky producers, who are now paying a 25% US tariff? That seems to me, to directly contradict the thrust of your argument.

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3 minutes ago, thehowler said:

You trusted Cameron then, and didn't think he was self serving? Right.

You think Blair had just cause to go into Iraq?

You agreed with the Falklands war?

I did trust Cameron..... Big mistake! Lying scumbag, cut from the same cloth as BJ.

I saw right through Blair (the model on which all subsequent PM have based themselves) and couldn't understand how others didn't.

At the time I agreed with the Falklands war, but I was but a child (early 30s).

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1 minute ago, thehowler said:

Can you explain to me how being part of the EU helped Scottish single malt whisky producers, who are now paying a 25% US tariff? That seems to me, to directly contradict the thrust of your argument.

Don't waste time on minutia. This election is all about Brexit.

To those who want to remain in the EU, first things first, vote tactically to get BJ and his cronies out.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/new-research-finds-tactical-voting-could-wipe-out-conservative-majority-on-12-december/02/12/#.XeUYPaqKLVk.twitter

https://www.remainunited.org/

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1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

Don't waste time on minutia. This election is all about Brexit.

To those who want to remain in the EU, first things first, vote tactically to get BJ and his cronies out.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/new-research-finds-tactical-voting-could-wipe-out-conservative-majority-on-12-december/02/12/#.XeUYPaqKLVk.twitter

https://www.remainunited.org/

It's not minutiae if you're a whisky producer. Anyway, in terms of trade and origin protections, Brexit is the minutiae and there's no getting around it.

My point stands, EU membership didn't afford Scots whisky producers any protection against US tariffs.

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1 minute ago, thehowler said:

It's not minutiae if you're a whisky producer. Anyway, in terms of trade and origin protections, Brexit is the minutiae and there's no getting around it.

My point stands, EU membership didn't afford Scots whisky producers any protection against US tariffs.

Obfuscation is the order of the day ;).

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1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

Obfuscation is the order of the day ;).

You intervened on a discussion about US/UK trade with your habitual tactical vote affirmation slogan...where is the obfuscation?

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1 hour ago, thehowler said:

Can you explain to me how being part of the EU helped Scottish single malt whisky producers, who are now paying a 25% US tariff? That seems to me, to directly contradict the thrust of your argument.

The real question is how much worse would it be if the US decided to introduce sanctions when we are the sole focus of their attention for not doing their bidding.

There is no contradiction to my arguement. We will be under huge pressure from the US to cooperate in all matters foreign and strategic, like it or not, and we will have little to offer in terms of resistance.

The general thrust was to do with BJ and if he is a saint compared to other PM's. I think he will be worse because that is the situation we will be placing ourselves in. Look no further than Trump and his behaviour towards Ukraine and his bid to get them to do his political dirty work.

Edited by IMHAL

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At home or abroad, Trump is becoming radioactive.

You're not even safe standing in his shadow.

https://news.yahoo.com/u-president-trump-says-boris-095440063.html

Quote

Donald Trump had promised to “stay out” of the UK’s general election campaigning during this week’s visit to London — but he then immediately backed both Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit.

Speaking to reporters on the first day of his visit to the UK for a two-day meeting of NATO leaders, the infamously opinionated president was asked why he hadn’t commented on next week’s vote.

He replied: “Because I don’t want to complicate it. I’ll stay out of the election.”

Trump then immediately complicated things by adding: “I think Boris [Johnson] is very capable and I think he’ll do a good job.

“You know that I was a fan of Brexit. I called it the day before.”

Trump did show a measure of restraint, however, when asked if he could work with Jeremy Corbyn should opposition party Labour win the general election.

The president replied: “I can work with anybody. I’m a very easy person to work with.”

Trump also emphatically denied the U.S. is seeking to open up Britain’s National Health Service to American competition, fears raised by a set of leaked papers revealed by Labour last week, but also appeared to be confused about what has been suggested.

The U.S. government has already expressed a desire to open up UK markets to American drug companies, but Trump made it sound like the entire NHS was for sale.

He said: “We have absolutely nothing to do with it and we wouldn’t want to if you handed it to us on a silver platter. We want nothing to do with it.”

 

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33 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

The real question is how much worse would it be if the US decided to introduce sanctions when we are the sole focus of their attention for not doing their bidding.

There is no con.tradiction to my arguement. We will be under huge pressure from the US to cooperate in all matters foreign and strategic, like it or not, and we will have little to offer in terms of resistance.

The thrust concerned was to do with BJ and if he is a saint compared to other PM's. I think he will be worse because that is the situation we will be placing ourselves in.

You've obviously been living on another planet since WW11. Why do you think we withdrew from Suez in 1956? Because it was too hot? It was because of US pressure and that was the point at which our pretensions to being a great, independent power were quashed.

The EU was in its antecedents largely a US creation; it was said that Robert Schuman's speech founding the ECSC was largely written by Dean Acheson, the US Secretary of State.

We've been very much influenced by the US since the last war so there's nothing new here.

As regards trade you seem to think that if we have no trade agreement there will be no trade. There are no trade agreements between the EU and China and the US. Does this means there's no trade? Hardly; the US imports $340 bn and exports $ 79 bn from/to China . Trade occurs because of mutual advantage and there is mutual advantage even in a relationship that appears lopsided.

Edited by crouch

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4 minutes ago, crouch said:

You've obviously been living on another planet since WW11. Why do you think we withdrew from Suez in 1956? Because it was too hot? It was because of US pressure and that was the point at which our pretensions to being a great, independent power were quashed.

My point is we will have less leverage than we do now. Desperation will ensure it is the case.

4 minutes ago, crouch said:

The EU was in its antecedents largely a US creation; it was said that Robert Schuman's speech founding the ECSC was largely written by Dean Acheson, the US Secretary of State.

We've been very much influenced by the US since the last war so there's nothing new here.

And you, obviously, want us to fall under their influence even more. Trump lover you must be.

4 minutes ago, crouch said:

As regards trade you seem to think that if we have no trade agreement there will be no trade. There are no trade agreements between the EU and China and the US. Does this means there's no trade? Hardly; the US imports $340 bn and exports $ 79 bn . Trade occurs because of mutual advantage and there is mutual advantage even in a relationship that appears lopsided.

You said that, not me. Your black and white world again. We are running a surplus with the USA, they will want to claw some of that back.... it's pretty obvious to most, except to you of course.

 

 

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1 hour ago, thehowler said:

Can you explain to me how being part of the EU helped Scottish single malt whisky producers, who are now paying a 25% US tariff? That seems to me, to directly contradict the thrust of your argument.

Why would you have expected it to, those tariffs were imposed as part of an ongoing WTO trade dispute process.  The items that tariffs were applied on were selected to cause exactly the reaction you have demonstrated.

The USA's support for Brexit is purely aimed at weakening a competing trade block so that it can achieve more favourable "America First" trade terms, it's strange that you seem to think this is in the UK's interest. 

NB Next year the WTO will rule on tariffs that can be applied by the EU in respect of illegal state subsidies received by Boeing after which both sides will hopefully net off the tariffs and settle this long running dispute..        

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10 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

And you, obviously, want us to fall under their influence even more. Trump lover you must be.

You can't resist it can you? I make a simple statement of fact and this means that I want even more US influence and am a lover of DT. Quote me where I've indicated these beliefs because neither is true.

12 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You said that, not me. Your black and white world again. We are running a surplus with the USA, they will want to claw some of that back.... it's pretty obvious to most, except to you of course.

Will they? Evidence please. The UK is way down the list of countries with a trade surplus with the US. Trade takes place because of mutual advantage not with the idea of "clawing some of that back"; that is a simpleton's idea which of course you believe.

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2 hours ago, thehowler said:

You trusted Cameron then, and didn't think he was self serving? Right.

You think Blair had just cause to go into Iraq?

You agreed with the Falklands war?

And when given a bit of responsibility how did things go fir BJ? For example his spell as Foreign Secretary ....

Anyway you’ve got this backwards. BJ is coming into his premiership at the point in the cycle he really should be sacked.

Its like the Picture of Dorian Gray story. When Blair and Thatcher got into power it took a while for people to notice the ‘painting in the attic’.  Actually it’s probably always this way.


Except now -  we have the paining in all it’s  decrepit corrupt glory front and centre and people still can’t see it, or in your case defend it, and will even vote for it...

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

You can't resist it can you? I make a simple statement of fact and this means that I want even more US influence and am a lover of DT. Quote me where I've indicated these beliefs because neither is true.

You stated that we are under the influency of the US already. I am saying that it is possible to be further under their influence and that putting outselves in a desperate position will, IMO make this more likely. There is no doubt that we want, ney, need a trade deal with the US post Brexit, that puts us in a vulnerable position,

1 hour ago, crouch said:

Will they? Evidence please. The UK is way down the list of countries with a trade surplus with the US. Trade takes place because of mutual advantage not with the idea of "clawing some of that back"; that is a simpleton's idea which of course you believe.

You really are this naive if you think that politics will not get in the way of pure mutual benefit. The US will see us as a sitting duck. The US will see the EU as wounded. IMO, they will take advantage, politically and economically.

 

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why would you have expected it to, those tariffs were imposed as part of an ongoing WTO trade dispute process.  The items that tariffs were applied on were selected to cause exactly the reaction you have demonstrated.

The USA's support for Brexit is purely aimed at weakening a competing trade block so that it can achieve more favourable "America First" trade terms, it's strange that you seem to think this is in the UK's interest. 

NB Next year the WTO will rule on tariffs that can be applied by the EU in respect of illegal state subsidies received by Boeing after which both sides will hopefully net off the tariffs and settle this long running dispute..        

I didn't, IMHAL did. Membership of the EU bloc has not helped Scottish whisky producers at all in regards these tariffs.

I didn't say that I thought the USA's support for Brexit was in the UK's interest. If you read my posts, I have always said that I can't see any benefit to small/medium companies from a US trade deal.

There's a lot more going on with the US/EU trade positioning than the aircraft subsidies. EU car manufacturers are already investing more in the US in an attempt to obviate any need for auto tariffs. There will be fresh moves towards an EU/US trade deal - including health provision, I'd imagine - regardless of our manner of leaving the EU.

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16 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You stated that we are under the influency of the US already. I am saying that it is possible to be further under their influence and that putting outselves in a desperate position will, IMO make this more likely. There is no doubt that we want, ney, need a trade deal with the US post Brexit, that puts us in a vulnerable position,

I take it then that you can't find evidence that I want even more influence from the US and am a fan of DT.

18 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You really are this naive if you think that politics will not get in the way of pure mutual benefit. The US will see us as a sitting duck. The US will see the EU as wounded. IMO, they will take advantage, politically and economically.

I didn't say that and nor do I believe it: I questioned the idea that a major principle of any US/UK trade deal would be the US trying "to claw things back". However, at the moment there is no trade deal and yet we have a substantial trade.

Ignoring what people say and providing answers to different questions is too obvious.

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1 hour ago, pig said:

And when given a bit of responsibility how did things go fir BJ? For example his spell as Foreign Secretary ....

Anyway you’ve got this backwards. BJ is coming into his premiership at the point in the cycle he really should be sacked.

Its like the Picture of Dorian Gray story. When Blair and Thatcher got into power it took a while for people to notice the ‘painting in the attic’.  Actually it’s probably always this way.


Except now -  we have the paining in all it’s  decrepit corrupt glory front and centre and people still can’t see it, or in your case defend it, and will even vote for it...

Public awareness and scrutiny has changed. And there's this thing called the internet. Politicians haven't changed but the available and instant info we have on them has.

And I'm not defending Boris. I just think it's ridiculous to say he's worse than many of his predecessors. Sadly any resistance to the idea that he's Satan incarnate prompts outbursts and allegations such as yours.

As for your last sentence, are you really telling me that nobody is calling Boris out as a rogue, constantly, incessantly? I can never remember a time when a Brit PM received so much open mockery and abuse. You're doing it yourself in your post, but you still say people can't see it. Are you seriously suggesting Boris hasn't come in for intense, unremitting flak in this campaign and long before it?

Even many of the people who intend to vote for Boris come out with the same patter you do...that's the real mystery. It's a measure of how dire things are.

Edited by thehowler

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25 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Public awareness and scrutiny has changed. And there's this thing called the internet. Politicians haven't changed but the available and instant info we have on them has.

And I'm not defending Boris. I just think it's ridiculous to say he's worse than many of his predecessors. Sadly any resistance to the idea that he's Satan incarnate prompts outbursts and allegations such as yours.

As for your last sentence, are you really telling me that nobody is calling Boris out as a rogue, constantly, incessantly? I can never remember a time when a Brit PM received so much open mockery and abuse. You're doing it yourself in your post, but you still say people can't see it. Are you seriously suggesting Boris hasn't come in for intense, unremitting flak in this campaign and long before it?

Even many of the people who intend to vote for Boris come out with the same patter you do...that's the real mystery. It's a measure of how dire things are.

Very true.

I think that many people at the moment is what the consider the normal and natural way of things to be under such threat that it is akin to war time. We have a rather hyperbolic thread on here about someone comparing being over sixty to being a Jew in Weimar Germany. At such times, people are happy to accept propaganda.

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Boris was chosen to be the people person, as opposed to the people's vote......'cept he needs the people's vote to vote him in.....he is Brexit, stay with the PM we have or leave for something different that is not known, tested or specific.😉

Edited by winkie

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

I take it then that you can't find evidence that I want even more influence from the US and am a fan of DT.

Does not matter what you do or do not want. IMO we will be further under the influence of the US due to to our economically weakened position...which you even agree will happen in the short to medium term.

1 hour ago, crouch said:

I didn't say that and nor do I believe it: I questioned the idea that a major principle of any US/UK trade deal would be the US trying "to claw things back". 

They will take advantage certainly. America First!

1 hour ago, crouch said:

However, at the moment there is no trade deal and yet we have a substantial trade.

Ignoring what people say and providing answers to different questions is too obvious.

Irrelevant. We are talking about a relative economic position and not a binary one.

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9 hours ago, Chunketh said:

No different to the Torys then. A vote for them is a vote for no deal, why else is the ERG so happy to support the rehashed TM deal that they hated so much?

I am almost wanting it to happen now, the spectacle will be a sight to behold. Either utterly brilliant as leave promised or utterly awful as remain promised.

Either happy with my error of judgement or happy to be correct, win win.

What I mean is that a JC No Deal will be a bigger and better spectacle, because he has waffled about a second deal/ref. for so long now, the Tories are actively seeking No Deal IMO, and maybe also JC, although as usual he doesn`t want to say this out loud.

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1 hour ago, thehowler said:

I didn't, IMHAL did. Membership of the EU bloc has not helped Scottish whisky producers at all in regards these tariffs.

I didn't say that I thought the USA's support for Brexit was in the UK's interest. If you read my posts, I have always said that I can't see any benefit to small/medium companies from a US trade deal.

There's a lot more going on with the US/EU trade positioning than the aircraft subsidies. EU car manufacturers are already investing more in the US in an attempt to obviate any need for auto tariffs. There will be fresh moves towards an EU/US trade deal - including health provision, I'd imagine - regardless of our manner of leaving the EU.

The major manufacturers were moving production into the US, and other major markets, long before Trump. The driver for this is being that the majority of added value/profit now comes from the IPR and services associated with producing a car as compared with the metal bashing and assembly.      

There might be fresh moves towards an EU/US deal but, as both are large complex economies, the potential benefits are relatively small and the obstacles to reaching a deal numerous so I wouldn't hold your breath.  The reality is that as long as the US is running a $1trillion annual deficit they will have a huge trade deficit irrespective of what deals Trump makes.   

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29 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Does not matter what you do or do not want. IMO we will be further under the influence of the US due to to our economically weakened position...which you even agree will happen in the short to medium term.

Outside the EU we will be able to conduct trade deals more tailored to our circumstances and not a compromise position forged by 28 countries. You lose the heft of the EU but gain in nimbleness and no longer having to make so many compromises. ~How this will work out remains to be seen but, as usual, you've already made your mind up about things.

33 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

They will take advantage certainly. America First!

Of course but that doesn't mean we get nothing; there are trade offs. Again, it's all done and dusted and we've failed!

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  • 334 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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