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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
4 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Ask yourself why the desperation to now leave on 31st October.

Talking heads from the government etc have been asked if even a few days extension would be acceptable and they have all said no.

It looks to me like big bets have been waged on leaving on 31st.

 

F*cking scum that they are.

The Stupid Oaf has a date with a ditch to avoid. Maybe we can get that bulldozer to fill in the ditch once he's in it.  Two promises in one.

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36 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Simply trotting out you standard line of 'no one knows the future' to justify any action, good, bad or catatrophic has reached it's sell by date. It's just not good enough and no one who has a modicum of reason buys it. 

After all this you still don't get it do you?

I'm not out to "justify" anything - I don't have to - and neither do you. It is you who wants to justify your view that Brexit is a disaster and you can't do it; there is no means of indicating the broad outlines of what might happen let alone proof in certain terms. This rankles.

And I do expect people to buy my line - in this you are quite right - and the reason for that is that "my" line is the only common sense one; yours is based on huge assumptions which cannot be justified; you simply assume, not what you are required to demonstrate, but which literally cannot be demonstrated. To conclude that this can be a basis on which to judge Brexit is just la la land.

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8 minutes ago, crouch said:

After all this you still don't get it do you?

I'm not out to "justify" anything - I don't have to - and neither do you. It is you who wants to justify your view that Brexit is a disaster and you can't do it; there is no means of indicating the broad outlines of what might happen let alone proof in certain terms. This rankles.

And I do expect people to buy my line - in this you are quite right - and the reason for that is that "my" line is the only common sense one; yours is based on huge assumptions which cannot be justified; you simply assume, not what you are required to demonstrate, but which literally cannot be demonstrated. To conclude that this can be a basis on which to judge Brexit is just la la land.

Oh come off it lol! - you’ve spent pages and pages and pages denonstrating  to everybody, that you refuse to look beyond the end of your nose because you’re pro-Brexit and don’t like the smell of the future  :)

 

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11 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Basic fact, the law is superior to Government. Break the law and Ministers can be jailed.

Indeed it is.

Leavers who argue otherwise would want King John to win against the barons when they introduced the Magna Carta.

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HOLA4410
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HOLA4411
12 minutes ago, crouch said:

After all this you still don't get it do you?

I'm not out to "justify" anything - I don't have to - and neither do you. It is you who wants to justify your view that Brexit is a disaster and you can't do it; there is no means of indicating the broad outlines of what might happen let alone proof in certain terms. This rankles.

And I do expect people to buy my line - in this you are quite right - and the reason for that is that "my" line is the only common sense one; yours is based on huge assumptions which cannot be justified; you simply assume, not what you are required to demonstrate, but which literally cannot be demonstrated. To conclude that this can be a basis on which to judge Brexit is just la la land.

Of course get it. With your approach, ANY action can be justified..... coz we don't know the future.... pathetic....is this really what an expensive Eton education buy? Sad...

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48 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The very essence of survival in a complex adaptive system is making models. Even a zero intelligence creature like the humble bacterium encodes and tests models of the environment via its chemoreceptors to direct its motion along a chemical gradient toward more favourable concentrations of energy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chemotaxis

Tell that to crouchy :) 

Obviously, when it comes to Brexit there is either no favourable concetration of energy to steer towards or we have half wits who think that every future event is equally probable and we should cast aside highly probably outcomes and throw the dice when making such decision (and hope for the best). Coz knee one nose thaa futa.   

 

Edited by IMHAL
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HOLA4414
38 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Ask yourself why the desperation to now leave on 31st October.

Talking heads from the government etc have been asked if even a few days extension would be acceptable and they have all said no.

It looks to me like big bets have been waged on leaving on 31st.

 

F*cking scum that they are.

Well you've repeatedly said you're a 101% certain we're not leaving.

How much have you got on it?

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45 minutes ago, pig said:

Oh come off it lol! - you’ve spent pages and pages and pages denonstrating  to everybody, that you refuse to look beyond the end of your nose because you’re pro-Brexit and don’t like the smell of the future  :)

 

Well logically you may be strictly right. If you vote against something like this you do implicitly assume that the future would be better with option A rather than B.

But this I think is a trivial way of looking at things. In any case if my views had any salience why would I assume that the future would be any better when there is no basis for doing so by my own principles other than a pure act of faith? 

My, and many others, reasons for voting to leave the EU were mainly non economic so did not rely on seeing a better economic future and were based on history and the revealed direction of travel of the EU.

Most people who voted Remain probably did so because they considered Brexit to be economically harmful. But that has no salience unless you attach numbers, and they have to be numbers over the long term. But you cannot forecast the long term future as I keep saying within even broad limits so the contention that Brexit is economically harmful cannot be demonstrated - repeat cannot be demonstrated - although in the event it may of course be right. I make no counter assertion - I don't have a clue whether Brexit will leave folk better or worse off over the long term - but neither does anyone else and that is all I'm saying.

Edited by crouch
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34 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

WE will see if it stands up to 24hrs scrutiny.

Lol, didn't last a hour. DUP are not backing it.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/weve-got-a-great-new-brexit-deal-declares-johnson-59rbcbmz5

The Stupid Oaf declares that he's got a Great Deal, except its not a Deal.. just Great.

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27 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Of course get it. With your approach, ANY action can be justified..... coz we don't know the future.... pathetic....is this really what an expensive Eton education buy? Sad...

Really you don't get it at all.

We all make assumptions that justify action - we do it all the time; and the actions we take depend on the assumptions we make. But they are just assumptions - they may be right or wrong. You continually adapt your reaction to circumstances.

You have continually stated forecasts that show that Brexit will be costly and yet these forecasts always come with a health warning - which you ignore - and most "experts" agree that long term unconditional macroeconomic forecasts can, and usually are, wildly inaccurate but again you ignore this. And you do it for a very good reason - you need "proof"- and you can't provide it.

And I didn't go to Eton.

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4 minutes ago, crouch said:

Really you don't get it at all.

We all make assumptions that justify action - we do it all the time; and the actions we take depend on the assumptions we make. But they are just assumptions - they may be right or wrong. You continually adapt your reaction to circumstances.

You have continually stated forecasts that show that Brexit will be costly and yet these forecasts always come with a health warning - which you ignore - and most "experts" agree that long term unconditional macroeconomic forecasts can, and usually are, wildly inaccurate but again you ignore this. And you do it for a very good reason - you need "proof"- and you can't provide it.

And I didn't go to Eton.

Brexit has cost nearly £70billion so far.

And then there is this

UK businesses in significant distress up 40% since Brexit referendum – report

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/business/uk-businesses-in-significant-distress-up-40-since-brexit-referendum-report/

 

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Quote

“It’s not all over ‘til it’s over – reports of an agreed deal has yet to get through European and UK parliaments and the DUP position remains unclear – but there is no question that this represents progress," says Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investors.

"Sterling has unsurprisingly strengthened since the announcement, and the domestically-focused UK stocks which are in the Brexit firing line are also motoring ahead.

"These are mostly typified by the property/housebuilding and banking sectors, where for example Persimmon shares are ahead by nearly 5%, British Land over 4%, Royal Bank of Scotland 3.5% and Lloyds Banking Group 3%."

Country obsessed with property

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12 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Brexit has cost nearly £70billion so far.

And then there is this

UK businesses in significant distress up 40% since Brexit referendum – report

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/business/uk-businesses-in-significant-distress-up-40-since-brexit-referendum-report/

 

I have never said that Brexit would be costless, in fact I've said repeated that there would be short term costs. But this has nothing to do with specious long term forecasts of the effect -which are valueless.

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HOLA4424
48 minutes ago, crouch said:

Well logically you may be strictly right. If you vote against something like this you do implicitly assume that the future would be better with option A rather than B.

But this I think is a trivial way of looking at things. In any case if my views had any salience why would I assume that the future would be any better when there is no basis for doing so by my own principles other than a pure act of faith? 

My, and many others, reasons for voting to leave the EU were mainly non economic so did not rely on seeing a better economic future and were based on history and the revealed direction of travel of the EU.

Most people who voted Remain probably did so because they considered Brexit to be economically harmful. But that has no salience unless you attach numbers, and they have to be numbers over the long term. But you cannot forecast the long term future as I keep saying within even broad limits so the contention that Brexit is economically harmful cannot be demonstrated - repeat cannot be demonstrated - although in the event it may of course be right. I make no counter assertion - I don't have a clue whether Brexit will leave folk better or worse off over the long term - but neither does anyone else and that is all I'm saying.

This thing about Leavers voting for the feelz, not the economy.

We know that austerity has been a disaster for the majority of the population. All services are going to be even more fecked after Brexit - unless we put ourselves into more hock.

So let's analyse what has been happening because of austerity and neo-liberal policies,  then extend a few of the consequences.

Knife crime and county lines get an even greater grip.

The NHS, already teetering, WILL be even more dysfunctional

Employment prospects will be worse. Feck it, Johnson had to drop employment rights at the behest of the ERG.

Education will get worse.

More of our assets will go to foreigners

So, society suffers. So answer this, is money not important to the running of a country? If you think it is, I am sure you can't tell me where the compensation comes from to improve the lives of many of the population - apart from borrowing billions.

Leavers - I'm alright Jack - I've got mine, and the rest can feck-off.

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2 hours ago, thehowler said:

As GD has pointed out by reffing the tweet above, the Benn Act calls for an extension to negotiate around terms that include a CU - as put forward in the last May bill. But the ERG tax bill makes any such CU illegal, under current law. You could argue - and I'm not sure it was wise of Maugham QC to raise the issue, indeed, he has decided to "pause and reflect" this morning - that the ERG bill therefore makes requesting an extension illegal.

The ERG tax bill supposedly prevented Northern Ireland being in a different customs territory, which is what Johnson has just agreed to.

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