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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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26 minutes ago, crouch said:

So we will see hundreds of billions in all sorts of industries disappear in short order? I see. Hmm...

Well I can't beat omniscience and that's a fact. I would normally say that such an assertion is utterly delusional and would only be made by an idiot who has no idea what they're talking about but if you know well..

We'll just see these firms will moving back into the single market.  It'll be a slow burn...

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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38 minutes ago, crouch said:

So we will see hundreds of billions in all sorts of industries disappear in short order? I see. Hmm...

You think it will be more of a slow burn drag on the economy?  If you were making a decision on where to invest, why would you choose the place with more political risk without a good incentive?

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51 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

We'll just see these firms will moving back into the single market.  It'll be a slow burn...

A far more plausible scenario - which was actually what I was getting at. Must always retain perspective on these things.

But will it happen? Many countries trade with the SM without being members of the EU; as long as you comply with regulations - which we already do. Do we need to join China to trade with them?

The EU is in structural decline and this will continue; the growth areas are elsewhere.

As we have a huge trade deficit with the EU why assume that the slow burn reduction in exports will not be matched by a slow burn reduction in imports? Most Remainers think the pound will come down sharply after we leave which will encourage import substitution and encourage exports.

Perspective, always perspective. There are other possibilities in the World apart from the EU.

 

Edited by crouch
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31 minutes ago, Ames said:

Ya think?

What took you so long?

Corbyn and Marxist McDonnell are leavers; the EU is anathema to both of them.

 

 

Do Emily and Keir know it though?

Keir knew the vote wasn't going through, I suspect, would explain why his speech was so reticent and pro-Corbs.

Hearing there's a motion tomorrow to guarantee free movement in any Labour brexit deal, but will it be enough to keep the remainers in the tent?

 

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1 hour ago, Ames said:

Ya think?

What took you so long?

Corbyn and Marxist McDonnell are leavers; the EU is anathema to both of them.

 

 

Corbyn, yes: McDonnell, no.

The Lexit argument is essentially a demand for greater fiscal latitude (higher deficits for longer). Corbyn and McDonnell have both cited the six weeks of talks they had with Mrs May this Summer as a reason to believe a Better Deal is possible.

Edited by zugzwang
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9 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Do Emily and Keir know it though?

Keir knew the vote wasn't going through, I suspect, would explain why his speech was so reticent and pro-Corbs.

Hearing there's a motion tomorrow to guarantee free movement in any Labour brexit deal, but will it be enough to keep the remainers in the tent?

 

It looks like the Corbynistas have pulled off another low-down, dirty street-fighting coup against the Centrists!

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-23/how-jeremy-corbyn-stitched-up-labours-brexit-vote-writes-robert-peston/b

Quote

Labour's leadership may have failed in the "drive by shooting" of Tom Watson (using his colourful words) but they have totally stitched up NEC and conference Brexit votes - by making sure their supporters were largely in the room, and keeping out those pesky Remainers.

None of this should come as a surprise. But it was still awe-inspiring to watch in action.

The point is that for the past 24 hours, all the attention has been on which way the big unions would vote.

And when Unison turned against Corbyn's Brexit neutrality it looked as if the Remainers might just squeak a victory. But in the end the unions' position was irrelevant.

Because the conference votes were done by a show of hands. And guess what? There just weren't many Remainers on the conference floor.

I wonder how that happened?

It's a bit like how two crucial 8am NEC meetings were cancelled and requests for emailed submissions on the Brexit policy were made at around midnight on the prior evenings, making it almost impossible for Corbyn's critics to get their act together.

The Brexit position of the trade unions was always a red herring, what magicians call misdirection. What mattered was who was in the hall.

And that was sorted weeks ago though the choice of delegates.

 

 

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3 hours ago, kzb said:

It does have direct applicability to the matter in hand.  But you don't know what that is.  Use the trackback arrow on my posts to go back to where it started then you might be able to say something useful.

Fair enough - I did wade in quite late

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48 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

It looks like the Corbynistas have pulled off another low-down, dirty street-fighting coup against the Centrists!

 

Aye, Big Len won today. And Swinson can now call Labour the Brexit party.

Meanwhile...Tusk can't resist...

 

EFKY6s6XsAA4EqH.jpg

Edited by thehowler
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1 hour ago, crouch said:

A far more plausible scenario - which was actually what I was getting at. Must always retain perspective on these things.

But will it happen? Many countries trade with the SM without being members of the EU; as long as you comply with regulations - which we already do. Do we need to join China to trade with them?

The EU is in structural decline and this will continue; the growth areas are elsewhere.

As we have a huge trade deficit with the EU why assume that the slow burn reduction in exports will not be matched by a slow burn reduction in imports? Most Remainers think the pound will come down sharply after we leave which will encourage import substitution and encourage exports.

Perspective, always perspective. There are other possibilities in the World apart from the EU.

Yes. We buy £67Billion more stuff from the EU27 then they buy from us EU1. It's not just the UK's view of its own politicians that's the issue. It's also EU business and EU people's view of Brussels.

If the UK approaches the EU with a deal that would suit and keep EU businesses happy, but the EU does not accept it, it will be seen as putting its political and empire aspirations above the economies and jobs of Europe. Already negative views of the EU from its other member states may increase. Other countries realizing they would have accepted and got such a trade deal if they were outside of the EU.

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3 hours ago, thehowler said:

When they started singing "OOoo Jeremy Corbyn" I thought to myself...

...how will they vote down the Labour Brexit deal he negotiates and puts before conference. It might be a Labour leave.

Will Labour Remainer MPs jump ship in coming days?

That assumes he wins the election and it's hard to see how that can happen now.  They are going to bleed  committed Leave and Remain voters  to parties who have a clear message.  

The best way out for Corbyn now would be for Boris to get a deal and leave on the 31st. Maybe this is the plan and he will allow Labour MPs will help facilitate that. Maybe secretly he would be happy to see a no deal exit, calculating that a GE held in the midst of a shambolic exit would provide his best chance of winning.

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2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Riots? Somebody lit a flare and then they all had a group hug. WTF?

I'm guessing you have never been in a riot and felt teargas. 

Takshin square in instanbul, I found myself wrong place wrong time, and for far too long. It's terrifying..

Don't make jokes ..may be coming soon.

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7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Maybe secretly he would be happy to see a no deal exit, calculating that a GE held in the midst of a shambolic exit would provide his best chance of winning.

+1

Labour's best hope for election victory is a Tory Brexit.

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12 hours ago, smash said:

Good, we did vote leave after all, I'm not a "remainer" I think the result needs to be respected.

What result? 

Oh you mean the non binding referendum, that would have been declared illegal if it had been binding? 

There is no result to be respected and there is was no poll on the will of the people. 

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14 hours ago, Riedquat said:

We've got a system where those people are screwed regardless - they never benefited from the growth that you're saying we'll lose. It's the same point again about the UK having plenty of wealth but poor wealth distribution. The latter is the area that needs targeting to help those people but the arguments are all about the effects on the former.

Not an excuse to deliver a system that is even more screwed.

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14 hours ago, crouch said:

Well that's a relief.

And after we've not pussyfooted around - then?

The rise of the parties that are four square behind rejoining. Election based on Remain ticket. Win. Rejoin. No waiting around for 30 years to satisfy thoses who are long gone, idealists and the generally dissociated from reality with hysterical anti EU fantasies. 

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11 hours ago, crouch said:

A far more plausible scenario - which was actually what I was getting at. Must always retain perspective on these things.

But will it happen? Many countries trade with the SM without being members of the EU; as long as you comply with regulations - which we already do. Do we need to join China to trade with them?

The EU is in structural decline and this will continue; the growth areas are elsewhere.

As we have a huge trade deficit with the EU why assume that the slow burn reduction in exports will not be matched by a slow burn reduction in imports? Most Remainers think the pound will come down sharply after we leave which will encourage import substitution and encourage exports.

Perspective, always perspective. There are other possibilities in the World apart from the EU.

 

Lovely....what is the credible plan? Where is the credible forecast?

No plan, No forecast = Jam Tomorrow Fantasist.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

+1

Labour's best hope for election victory is a Tory Brexit.

Superficially, it may seem an attractive option for Labour.

In reality, it would open up a deep divide, greater than that which was seen yesterday  at conference. One faction would seek to rejoin the EU at the earliest opportunity and the other would seek a close working relationship with the EU outside its political structures.

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37 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

The rise of the parties that are four square behind rejoining. Election based on Remain ticket. Win. Rejoin. No waiting around for 30 years to satisfy thoses who are long gone, idealists and the generally dissociated from reality with hysterical anti EU fantasies. 

Well, sorted then!

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