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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

Wrong again.  The first two polls after the date of the referendum was announced had Leave ahead, and Leave was ahead in 15 straight polls (with one tie) after Cameron first announced the policy of holding a referendum.

I already edited my post, if you look at the huge raft of data there it is impossible to extrapolate from polls now to draw any clear conclusions. They are all over the place.

Edited by debtlessmanc
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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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2 hours ago, IMHAL said:

What is going to happen after Brexit that you going to get a sense of pride out of?

Just interested.

Hi Imhal - I honestly find it hard to explain. It's one of those things whereby if you have to ask me then there is nothing I can say which will mean anything.

We both know the arguments so it's just now a matter of which direction 'calls to you'.

If I pinpointed anything it would only be one tiny thing in a sea of things. It would trap me and I've found that talking to remainers is like putting your hand into a cage full of wild animals: there is no calmness, no understanding, no grace. My hand gets grabbed and mauled. Lots of "So you're saying that..." etc goes on and I feel bullied, judged and often unsafe. No really.

Nowadays I stay silent if 'the Subject' comes up as often it is a remainer wanting someone to hurt who starts the conversation.

Not that I"m painting you as one of those - you did ask me very civilly and politely. I suspect you are a Brexiteer with that display of politeness.

 

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3 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

The only countries in Europe for which that graph looks any better are the Netherlands and Germany. That is in its own way the problem with the E.U.

The US looks the same too. As do Canada and Australia. Evidently, the common cause can't be the Euro.

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1 minute ago, debtlessmanc said:

I already edited my post, if you look at the huge raft of data there it is impossible to extrapolate from polls now to draw any clear conclusions. They are all over the place.

On the straight Leave/Remain question there hasn't been one showing Leave ahead for a long time, which is a different picture to before 2016.  I do agree that you can't infer much from them because a lot could change if people were asked the question again for real.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

On the straight Leave/Remain question there hasn't been one showing Leave ahead for a long time, which is a different picture to before 2016.  I do agree that you can't infer much from them because a lot could change if people were asked the question again for real.

I am out in Greece at the moment (hols) there has been another huge surge in refugees arriving in the Greek islands ( the locals are talking about it). The camps are at utter breaking point. All it would need is that' a few days before any vote, someone in the commission to start banging on about redistributing the refugees to other member states you would have another 10% swing right there. I am not saying it is morally right but it would happen and you know it.

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3 minutes ago, slawek said:

A fake news. In June 2016 it was 50-50 split between polls. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

In comparison the latest polls, no single poll is showing Leave lead for over a year. 

image.thumb.png.7ea51456ecb66b7f898351a78ad2df89.png

That is the wrong question, it is not "would you change your vote?" Asking whether what others have done is right or wrong is not the same as what you did is right or wrong. Some people might have taken the view that they voted remain but should respect the vote, they might have changed their mind, they would show a trend that would be irrelevant to the actual result of a new referendum 

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50 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I suppose you have to ask whether that is due to a great campaign by Corbyn, or a poor one by May.

If anything I would say Johnson would be better than May, and Corbyn would struggle to live up to his past achievements due to his legacy over the past few months.

That's only my opinion of course.

 

GE announcement this evening?

Quote

Rumours of a snap general election have sent the pound tumbling on the international currency markets, as investors brace for further political turmoil as the Brexit deadline edges closer.

Sterling has slumped by almost a cent against the US dollar and sold-off sharply against the euro, sliding below $1.21 and €1.10 as election speculation spreads through the City.

Sterling is close to the lowest levels on record, having slumped whenever the chance of Britain leaving without a deal mounts. The pound is down by about 5% on the US dollar this year and is still worth about 19% less than on the eve of the EU referendum in 2016.

 

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3 hours ago, Ghostly said:

I'd love to see Corbyn destroyed at the polls. I think the hardcore remainers will go Lib Dem or Green as Labour have flip-flopped too much on Brexit.  They have also betrayed their own voters who wanted Brexit.

Yup - idiotic blancmange stuff.

Corbyn must go. They've lost the youth vote.

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1 minute ago, zugzwang said:

GE announcement this evening?

 

I don't think that's how it works because of fixed term parliaments.

Although they could announce an intention to hold a vote.

My feeling is though that they need a reason. They won't just announce it. Maybe they will wait to see if legislation succeeds in the hoc, then if it does announce a GE before it passes in the lords. I don't know how that would work, whether or not it would stop the legislation or not.

And of course the choosing of the date is pretty important.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, crouch said:

Opinion is always changing; in six months time it might be leave that is in the majority. We don't turf governments out because polls show them losing support after six months in office.

It is true, that is why we should have higher thresholds in referendums. 4% Leave lead on the day of the referendum was too fragile to use it as a justification for something like Brexit. Especially when you take into account dirty tricks used by the Leave campaign.  

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1 minute ago, slawek said:

It is true, that is why we should have higher thresholds in referendums. 4% Leave lead on the day of the referendum was too fragile to use it as a justification for something like Brexit. Especially when you take into account dirty tricks used by the Leave campaign.  

Then we should have applied the same to the decision to join in first place. Except we didn't, what actually happened was the equivalent of Boris unilaterally leaving and then having a referendum on staying out. 

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Just now, slawek said:

It is true, that is why we should have higher thresholds in referendums. 4% Leave lead on the day of the referendum was too fragile to use it as a justification for something like Brexit. Especially when you take into account dirty tricks used by the Leave campaign.  

There's an argument for a higher level although you've got to be very careful to avoid justifiable accusations of deliberately setting the bar too high in order to offer only the illusion of choice.

It's more amazing that Leave won despite the Remain dirty tricks and mainstream establishment bias. Some dodgy campaign spending is a big deal yet still added up to far less than was spent on trying to scare people into Remain? Good job people know campaigns are full of nonsense so don't pay them much attention.

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2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

May's deal was/is terrible! I suspect the Labour executive thought that she would get it through just the same and didn't want to be seen to endorse it.

The Labour manifesto will win the next GE. ;)

They should, but remember lies are the way now. Boris will promise all sorts of shit and probably win. See the bus and now schools.

Corbyn has had his chance. Labour won't get anywhere without a reset. I won't forgive Corbyn for his fence-sitting for so long.

Unless there's a good man hidden somewhere, the next 10 years of politics (at least) are going to be a real mess and the country will slip into the worse slump it's been since just after the war - and without a united population. Not nice.

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8 minutes ago, slawek said:

It is true, that is why we should have higher thresholds in referendums. 4% Leave lead on the day of the referendum was too fragile to use it as a justification for something like Brexit. Especially when you take into account dirty tricks used by the Leave campaign.  

I don't disagree that we should have a higher threshold for a referendum and should have had one for this but we are where we are.

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17 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

That is the wrong question, it is not "would you change your vote?" Asking whether what others have done is right or wrong is not the same as what you did is right or wrong. Some people might have taken the view that they voted remain but should respect the vote, they might have changed their mind, they would show a trend that would be irrelevant to the actual result of a new referendum 

I used Yougov poll because it has more data points, below the aggregation of three polls, the picture is similar

image.thumb.png.54f290de22f6049a089fb02b709576f8.png

 

Source https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls-2/

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2 minutes ago, slawek said:

I used Yougov poll because it has more data points, below the aggregation of three polls, the picture is similar

image.thumb.png.54f290de22f6049a089fb02b709576f8.png

 

Source https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls-2/

Interesting a rapid change in mar 18 but little before or since, in fact has narrowed since?

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

I don't disagree that we should have a higher threshold for a referendum and should have had one for this but we are where we are.

It is better to stay in the EU based on the current 5-10% Remain lead than leave the EU based 4% Leave lead from three years ago. Especially because the young people are mostly pro-Remain and the future belongs to them.

 

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 Any democratic exercise thsr results in an outcome opposed by over half the electorate has to be judged a failure.

 

They confuse an inermediate part of the process with the desired outcome .... is the problem the leavers have..... but then, it suits them to do that.

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5 minutes ago, slawek said:

It is better to stay in the EU based on the current 5-10% Remain lead than leave the EU based 4% Leave lead from three years ago. Especially because the young people are mostly pro-Remain and the future belongs to them.

 

We won't stay in the EU. Even if we had voted Remain in 2016 we would have eventually left in my opinion or the EU will change into something more to our liking.

Personally I'd be fairly relaxed if we stayed because I think the EU in its present form won't last the next ten years; it will morph into something different. The Euro is a disaster in waiting and IMV will be the proximate cause of its demise. 

Edited by crouch
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3 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Interesting a rapid change in mar 18 but little before or since, in fact has narrowed since?

Yougov data series is better because it starts at the time of the referendum so it gives the longer perspective. They are usually more reliable from my experience.

I see only some narrowing in mar 19 (also visible in yougov data) but recently both time series show widening (Boris effect).  

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2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Support for no deal is around 30-32%, less than a third of the country. There is and never was a Brexit option supported by the majority of the country. Leaving with no deal would  be a failure of democracy.

I want a deal, you want a deal, everyone wants a deal but the EU will only agree to a punitive deal towards the UK - one where the UK cedes control and effectively rescinds our right to leave the EU unilaterally.

We must recognise the real elephant in the room here - It is not the deal per se - it is that the UK is being bullied and treated as a breakaway state. Yes, I get the reality that the EU is far more powerful than the UK, but do you really think if we stayed in the EU, we woudl be treated any different on any other issue if the other 26 countries wanted to treat us so?

Take for example fishing around the UK waters - Do you really think the democratic wish of UK people is that we have a minority share to fish in our own seas?

If we extend your viewpoint to a logical conclusino, one where you dislike being in the minorty in a voting process, you would definately be the hardest Brexiteer going :)

But then again I think it was you that said something along the lines that you want "to be a part of bigger democratic group".

You can't have it both ways y'know? 

Edited by rockerboy
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2 minutes ago, crouch said:

We won't stay in the EU. Even if we had voted Remain in 2016 we would have eventually left in my opinion or the EU will change into something more to our liking.

Personally I'd be fairly relaxed if we stayed because I think the EU in its present form won't last the next ten years; it will morph into something different. The Euro is a disaster in waiting and IMV will be the proximate cause of its demise. 

Say the guy who is totally ignorant about the long term future and inconsistent in his views about predictions. ;) 

Whatever happens it is better for the young generation to decide. My view is that even if the EU will not survive it will be replaced by something similar. The world is too small place, current states are past their due date. Air travel, communication, global corporations, tax evasion, environmental issues  etc require new global structures. Trumpism/Brexit is just tilting at windmills. 

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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