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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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Majority of Britons support 'Brexit by any means'

A majority of Britons believe Prime Minister Boris Johnson must take Britain out of the European Union “by any means”, even if that involves suspending parliament, an opinion poll conducted for the Daily Telegraph said on Monday.

Reuters

 

Ministry of propaganda imagination went into overdrive.

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10 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Quite.

There's a common misunderstanding among Remainers that Brexit means not wanting anything to do with Europe, when what it actually means is not wanting to be a member of the EU. That indicates a dislike of the EU, not a dislike with cooperation with other countries. I suspect it stems from another example of over-simplified black and white thinking substitute.

Exactly, but it is a deliberate "misunderstanding" IMO, similar to using the words "Crash Out" at every opportunity, people are wise to it though, Project Fear really has run out of steam now.

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2 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Exactly, but it is a deliberate "misunderstanding" IMO, similar to using the words "Crash Out" at every opportunity, people are wise to it though, Project Fear really has run out of steam now.

Your mind reading is terrible.

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7 hours ago, yodigo said:

Talking about the remoaners and their beloved EU no doubt....

Here, not there.

Judging your controllers, I know the money maggots will infest this place and destroy it from within after Brexit.

But why am I replying to you. You're just a badly programmed bot. Bad bot.

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11 hours ago, zugzwang said:

I don't accept it because I know I can do better!

Steve Keen predicted both the GFC and the debt-constrained Unrecovery that followed it.

He also predicted the current house price-driven financial crises in Australia and Canada (in 2016).

An understanding of the role that private sector credit plays in a monetary economy is largely what's required to outperform the economics mainstream.

 

You cannot predict with even ball park numbers where the economy will be in 30 years' time. You can make no meaningful assertions about the ultimate economic result of Brexit.

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2 minutes ago, crouch said:

You cannot predict with even ball park numbers where the economy will be in 30 years' time. You can make no meaningful assertions about the ultimate economic result of Brexit.

You can predict the effect of 400k jobs moving to the EU when the Japanese leave.

You can predict the economic effect of the closure of the UK based car industry.

You can predict the the rise in the cost of food.

These are not assertions, they are calculated facts.

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10 hours ago, pig said:

I’m enough right, and you’ve already explained why you’re unreasonably defensive over Brexit and myopic over the EU.

Myopic over the EU - maybe but only a tad.

10 hours ago, pig said:

At the end of the day you make the best decision you can based on the best information available.

This is only part of it; emotion comes into it as well.

10 hours ago, pig said:

Honesty and common-sense are important too. A pattern of discounting assertions you don’t like but allowing the ones you do like means neither are in operation.

We all do that.

10 hours ago, pig said:

Actually it would be interesting to read what grounds you’d be prepared to criticise Brexit in principle

It's a risk; no doubt about it.

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6 minutes ago, crouch said:

You cannot predict with even ball park numbers where the economy will be in 30 years' time. You can make no meaningful assertions about the ultimate economic result of Brexit.

i am more concerned with the next 5 years and the fallout from brexit. 30 years time i will be an OAP,

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2 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

You can predict the effect of 400k jobs moving to the EU when the Japanese leave.

You can predict the economic effect of the closure of the UK based car industry.

You can predict the the rise in the cost of food.

These are not assertions, they are calculated facts.

Can you read? I said over 30 years. Let me repeat that: 30 years!

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1 minute ago, hurlerontheditch said:

i am more concerned with the next 5 years and the fallout from brexit. 30 years time i will be an OAP,

Most Brexiteers are OAP's and therefore triple locked protected from the effect of Brexit.

Mind you, so am I, 90% of my wealth is not in GDP.

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9 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Most Brexiteers are OAP's and therefore triple locked protected from the effect of Brexit.

Mind you, so am I, 90% of my wealth is not in GDP.

GBP?

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57 minutes ago, crouch said:

You cannot predict with even ball park numbers where the economy will be in 30 years' time. You can make no meaningful assertions about the ultimate economic result of Brexit.

You can make informed guesses. The economy won't have grown at 5% p.a. for instance. Nor is unemployment likely to be > 10 million at any time during that period. Econometrics is a body of informed guesses. The consensus of informed opinion is that the UK economy will be permanently impaired by a Hard Brexit, hence the remorseless debasement of sterling day after day as we draw closer to that eventuality.

 

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2 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

:D 

where's my Soros money? 

I am still looking for mine.

This toxic name calling has got to stop. For every Brexiteer called a racist, there is a remainer called a traitor. Where did this start....the Newspaper industry. Guardian calling leavers thick and racist, the Mail calling remainers vermin and traitors.

When did people lose control of their faculties? 

This will only ever be solved by a compromise and that isn't where we are heading right now. 

Now, time for me to head back to stockpiling food and figuring out how to get my savings out of Sterling.

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1 minute ago, Chunketh said:

I am still looking for mine.

This toxic name calling has got to stop. For every Brexiteer called a racist, there is a remainer called a traitor. Where did this start....the Newspaper industry. Guardian calling leavers thick and racist, the Mail calling remainers vermin and traitors.

When did people lose control of their faculties? 

This will only ever be solved by a compromise and that isn't where we are heading right now. 

Now, time for me to head back to stockpiling food and figuring out how to get my savings out of Sterling.

But name calling's all we have! Nothing we say or do will have any impact on the outcome of this sh*tshow. The people I worry about are the ones who take it seriously, the ones who fantasise about donning a uniform and grabbing grandpa's shotgun and taking to the streets to force 'the right path'. Once that dormant (and prevalent) fascist gene is triggered it doesn't sleep again easily. 

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2 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

They are the ones who have poisoned politics in this country. They are vermin.

Oooh! Very angry talk. Sound like mister Nigel Fridge.

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16 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

I am still looking for mine.

This toxic name calling has got to stop. For every Brexiteer called a racist, there is a remainer called a traitor. Where did this start....the Newspaper industry. Guardian calling leavers thick and racist, the Mail calling remainers vermin and traitors.

When did people lose control of their faculties? 

This will only ever be solved by a compromise and that isn't where we are heading right now. 

Now, time for me to head back to stockpiling food and figuring out how to get my savings out of Sterling.

This sort of childish name calling rarely occurs in face to face encounters because the automatic response would be a well deserved smack in the chops.

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14 hours ago, zugzwang said:

I know of five independent Brexit models, each one of which is forecasting a deeply negative outcome for the UK vs the status quo after a No Deal. Six if you include the BoE, though we're obliged to draw that inference from the strength of Carney's warnings since the Bank has declined to publish its No Deal scenario.

So where are the positive outlook forecasts?

GD posted a summary the other week.  There are positive and negative forecasts.  I'm not finding it for you because we keep going round this cycle.  I'll find it for you, and then next week you'll be asking the same question.

Also, only the other week, we were discussing that German report on the single market.  That calculated that UK GDP benefits by 2.2% from trade facilitation due to the single market.  Far below Switzerland and Norway who are not even EU members.  An earlier report calculated just 1% in 2012.

That 2.2% (or 1%) gain is simply the gain due to trade facilitation.  It does not include any of the costs of membership, which could easily wipe out this amount. 

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59 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

You can make informed guesses. The economy won't have grown at 5% p.a. for instance. Nor is unemployment likely to be > 10 million at any time during that period. Econometrics is a body of informed guesses. The consensus of informed opinion is that the UK economy will be permanently impaired by a Hard Brexit, hence the remorseless debasement of sterling day after day as we draw closer to that eventuality.

 

Of course you can make guesses and even "informed" guesses but that makes very little difference over the long term.

It doesn't matter what the consensus is or that 300 forecasts all say the same thing the fact is you don't know at the end of the day where the economy will be in thirty years.

This assessment of the Brexit forecasts gives what appears to be a balanced assessment of the procedures used by most:

https://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/centre-for-business-research/downloads/working-papers/wp493.pdf

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1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

You can make informed guesses. The economy won't have grown at 5% p.a. for instance. Nor is unemployment likely to be > 10 million at any time during that period. Econometrics is a body of informed guesses. The consensus of informed opinion is that the UK economy will be permanently impaired by a Hard Brexit, hence the remorseless debasement of sterling day after day as we draw closer to that eventuality.

 

Something I forgot to mention before:  the people making these doom laden forecasts are the very same people that completely missed forecasting the 2007 crash. 

"Who saw that coming ?" wailed the chancellor at the time.  Well we did.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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