Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
GreenDevil

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

Recommended Posts

42 minutes ago, slawek said:

As I said before I don't know where the economy will be in 30 years, but you and I can make some claims what is more likely or not to happen.

By saying "I don't know anything" you just claim that according to you all the states of the economy in 30 years are equally likely.

So why all the maths?  It just comes down to belief in the end. 

You do not add any value by dressing it up as anything else.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, kzb said:

So why all the maths?  It just comes down to belief in the end. 

You do not add any value by dressing it up as anything else.

 

Bingo. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

There's literally nothing at stake anymore. You can lose face politically for making a bad call one day and the news cycle has wiped it within 48 hours, let alone 3 decades later. We're living in the post-truth world where the strongest liar wins. He's currently the PM.

The only prediction is that the poor will get poorer, the debt will get deeper, the rich will get richer and we'll look back on previous times with the envy that comes from experience. 

 

Chances are your last paragraph is correct, simply by extrapolating the trends over the last several decades.  This is irrespective of Brexit.

On the other hand, to break a trend you have to do something radical.  Without any external change the trend will simply continue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, kzb said:

So why all the maths?  It just comes down to belief in the end. 

You do not add any value by dressing it up as anything else.

To be fair - nothing wrong with starting from the maths as long as you properly include uncertainties. The conclusion from that might be that there's no way of separating out (plausible) possibilities as being conclusively more likely than others, but the basis of slawek's argument isn't unreasonable - that some outcomes might be more likely than others. It's the assumption you have to start with (that the probabilities aren't equal, not that any particular probability is more likely) at any rate.

Too often a lack of uncertainty is equated with having no idea at all. People aren't good at probability. Tell them there's a 70% chance of something happening and they'll defiantly state you're wrong after one example where it didn't happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

To be fair - nothing wrong with starting from the maths as long as you properly include uncertainties. The conclusion from that might be that there's no way of separating out (plausible) possibilities as being conclusively more likely than others, but the basis of slawek's argument isn't unreasonable - that some outcomes might be more likely than others. It's the assumption you have to start with (that the probabilities aren't equal, not that any particular probability is more likely) at any rate.

Too often a lack of uncertainty is equated with having no idea at all. People aren't good at probability. Tell them there's a 70% chance of something happening and they'll defiantly state you're wrong after one example where it didn't happen.

He's only just started with the probability based arguments.

Ok let's think up the what the probabilities are for worse off versus better off due to Brexit.

We know that various models output a range of positive and negative growth figures.  What should we do, take the average?  A weighted mean (weighted by the stated uncertainty)?

Or pick one based on your individual beliefs?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Imagine people in 1989 spending hours of their finite lives arguing over the economy of 2019. 

Exactly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, kzb said:

So why all the maths?  It just comes down to belief in the end. 

You do not add any value by dressing it up as anything else.

 

 

Precisely my point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, kzb said:

On the other hand, to break a trend you have to do something radical.  Without any external change the trend will simply continue

I made this point a couple of weeks ago.

If you take the sum of population change plus productivity you get some idea of the secular growth trend.

In the UK over the next ten years the population growth is calculated at 0.5 - 0.6% pa. Productivity is currently only 0.2%. If you make some assumption on productivity, an optimistic assumption, you struggle to get above 1% growth pa. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, kzb said:

Chances are your last paragraph is correct, simply by extrapolating the trends over the last several decades.  This is irrespective of Brexit.

On the other hand, to break a trend you have to do something radical.  Without any external change the trend will simply continue.

The 2016 ref was a “heads I win-tails you lose” gamble by our rulers. The fact so many people have convinced themselves this is some sort of opportunity for freedoms and prosperity, a time machine back to the “good old days”, just shows how desperate and easily lead we are. 

But once people believe something and believe IN something, they don’t tend to change, especially if they surround themselves with people reinforcing that view.

Here’s a good read about a guy who literally allowed his foot to rot to pieces and fall off without having any pain relief because of...yep, his belief.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/06/christian-science-church-medicine-death-horror-of-my-fathers-last-days

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

The 2016 ref was a “heads I win-tails you lose” gamble by our rulers. The fact so many people have convinced themselves this is some sort of opportunity for freedoms and prosperity, a time machine back to the “good old days”, just shows how desperate and easily lead we are.

More a rejection of the crap current days. Although if there is a strong sense of looking to the past then those in charge would do well to consider how to bring back those bits that people want and that have been foolishly thrown out. People looking back is a sign both of regret at destroying some things that should've been kept as well as a dissatisfaction of both what we've got now and what's being offered for the future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

More a rejection of the crap current days. Although if there is a strong sense of looking to the past then those in charge would do well to consider how to bring back those bits that people want and that have been foolishly thrown out. People looking back is a sign both of regret at destroying some things that should've been kept as well as a dissatisfaction of both what we've got now and what's being offered for the future.

That can apply to remainers as well as leavers :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kzb said:

He's only just started with the probability based arguments.

Ok let's think up the what the probabilities are for worse off versus better off due to Brexit.

We know that various models output a range of positive and negative growth figures.  What should we do, take the average?  A weighted mean (weighted by the stated uncertainty)?

Or pick one based on your individual beliefs?

I know of five independent Brexit models, each one of which is forecasting a deeply negative outcome for the UK vs the status quo after a No Deal. Six if you include the BoE, though we're obliged to draw that inference from the strength of Carney's warnings since the Bank has declined to publish its No Deal scenario.

So where are the positive outlook forecasts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, PeanutButter said:

The 2016 ref was a “heads I win-tails you lose” gamble by our rulers. The fact so many people have convinced themselves this is some sort of opportunity for freedoms and prosperity, a time machine back to the “good old days”, just shows how desperate and easily lead we are. 

But once people believe something and believe IN something, they don’t tend to change, especially if they surround themselves with people reinforcing that view.

Here’s a good read about a guy who literally allowed his foot to rot to pieces and fall off without having any pain relief because of...yep, his belief.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/06/christian-science-church-medicine-death-horror-of-my-fathers-last-days

 

The demented, life-denying ordnances of faith-based belief.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

I know of five independent Brexit models, each one of which is forecasting a deeply negative outcome for the UK vs the status quo after a No Deal. Six if you include the BoE, though we're obliged to draw that inference from the strength of Carney's warnings since the Bank has declined to publish its No Deal scenario.

So where are the positive outlook forecasts?

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/15/gdp-predictions-are-reliable-only-in-the-short-term

https://www.businessinsider.com/8-charts-prove-economic-forecasting-doesnt-work-2016-1?r=US&IR=T

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-economists-cant-forecast/2017/03/08/4cad0644-041f-11e7-b1e9-a05d3c21f7cf_story.html

Brexit has to be judged over the longer term - 30 years - and the forecasts you mention are only of very limited value. You simply can't accept this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, crouch said:

If you believe that the EU may no longer exist and is ridiculous speculation why would you believe that Brexit will be very bad for the UK is any different? I think there are some reasons but, at the end of the day, they are not substantial enough to nullify the point.

Its very different because companies will not be able to do business in the EU post Brexit. No ifs or buts, there is no possibility of it because it the very essence of Brexit. Leave the Single Market, get rid of the jobs, destroy the UK's economy.

The possibility of the EU's collapse, however, is something you pulled out of your ****, based on a wish. Its the same prediction Brexit Loons have been making for years with no sign of it ever happening.

But Brexit will happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Its very different because companies will not be able to do business in the EU post Brexit. No ifs or buts, there is no possibility of it because it the very essence of Brexit. Leave the Single Market, get rid of the jobs, destroy the UK's economy.

The possibility of the EU's collapse, however, is something you pulled out of your ****, based on a wish. Its the same prediction Brexit Loons have been making for years with no sign of it ever happening.

But Brexit will happen.

Couldn't UK companies just setup a subsidiary in an EU state?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

The possibility of the EU's collapse, however, is something you pulled out of your ****, based on a wish. Its the same prediction Brexit Loons have been making for years with no sign of it ever happening.

I have never said the EU will collapse and I don't believe it. If I have quote me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Couldn't UK companies just setup a subsidiary in an EU state?

Yes, they will leave the UK and setup in Europe. Pay taxes there. Employ staff there.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, crouch said:

I don't accept it because I know I can do better!

Steve Keen predicted both the GFC and the debt-constrained Unrecovery that followed it.

He also predicted the current house price-driven financial crises in Australia and Canada (in 2016).

An understanding of the role that private sector credit plays in a monetary economy is largely what's required to outperform the economics mainstream.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Yes, they will leave the UK and setup in Europe. Pay taxes there. Employ staff there.

 

Those that need "regulatory certainty" will, but a lot wont..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, jonb2 said:

r millions who've been corralled, sheep-dogged and then penned up, docile and obedient, by their masters.

 

Talking about the remoaners and their beloved EU no doubt....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, slawek said:


I gave you an example of a guy who lost his job due to Brexit. Could you prove he can recover his losses?

And all the people who lost their jobs while in the EU, how will they recover their losses if we stay in?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dave Beans said:

Those that need "regulatory certainty" will, but a lot wont..

Because regulations never change in EU land...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Its very different because companies will not be able to do business in the EU post Brexit. No ifs or buts, there is no possibility of it because it the very essence of Brexit. Leave the Single Market, get rid of the jobs, destroy the UK's economy.

Utter rubbish, and you know it. Here's an American bank operating in Spain, so no reason why UK companies can't continue.

https://www.bnymellon.com/us/en/location-directory.jsp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, crouch said:

No you're quite wrong. I think you can criticize Brexit on any number of grounds but what concerns me is that many of the arguments are simply assertions which cannot be demonstrated but which pass as facts.

I’m enough right, and you’ve already explained why you’re unreasonably defensive over Brexit and myopic over the EU.

At the end of the day you make the best decision you can based on the best information available.

Honesty and common-sense are important too. A pattern of discounting assertions you don’t like but allowing the ones you do like means neither are in operation.

Actually it would be interesting to read what grounds you’d be prepared to criticise Brexit in principle :).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.