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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

But you are in a tangle. You have already accepted that Brexit will have a negative effect into the future. 

No. I've said repeatedly that I don't know what effect Brexit will have over the long term.

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3 minutes ago, crouch said:

No. I've said repeatedly that I don't know what effect Brexit will have over the long term.

Short term, medium term, long term. These are just artifical constructs. They are all in the future. The future is unknowable. You are in a tangle.

Edited by IMHAL

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3 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

The future is unknowable. You are in a tangle.

Now you accept that the future is unknowable neither of us is in a tangle.

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1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

But Brexit will make us poorer and what we have become accustomed to will no longer be as affordable. The question of are we getting value for money with the money we spend currently is separate, but please bear in mind that 'value for money' has been the agenda for the last 10 years. I am not sure that there is much more to be cut without cutting back on those services.

I am not obsessed by money. I am simply stating that with a fall in revenue we will have to cut back in proportion. That may be obvious (or even desirable for you) but it is not obvious to many who voted for Brexit. What do you want to see cut in the NHS or schools or any other service?

Before asking what will have to be cut if spending is reduced I'd ask what have we gained from the significantly increased spending? What's changed as it went up?

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Boris with just over 66%, Hunt with just less than 34%.

So by remainer Logic Hunt won by a country mile; and the will of the Tory party needs confirming in a second vote.

 

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15 hours ago, slawek said:

1) There is a jump in a trade level and GDP, the highest quarterly GDP growth 5.3% since 1955 has been recorded in Q1 1973 (that is around 3%-4% GDP jump) 

2) you need to aggregate the gain over 27 years, this is the only fair comparison between a scenario the UK joined the EU 1973 and a scenario it didn't. The same with  the impact of Brexit the impact should be a total loss over the future.  If you salary is cut you don't look only at one year. 

Not sure it is trade only, they claim is an overall gain. 

image.png.f4a9a46234fc9a5bb5e0d5be0b565f38.png

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2009/nov/25/gdp-uk-1948-growth-economy

(1) Well hang on, you are moving the goalposts.  We were discussing the single market, which went live in 1993, not 1973.

You will observe a big dip in GDP growth on your plot just before this time, which was caused by the Black Wednesday event.  In turn that was because of our intention to join the Euro.  Any increase in growth after 1993 has to make up for this.  Can you discern any acceleration in growth post 1993?

Back to 1973:  we've been round the circle on this one several times.  There may well have been a spike in 1973Q1 but look what happened in 1974 -the first recession in an unbroken period of growth since the end of WWII.  You can see this in your plot. 

(2)  The 2.2% is the aggregate gain from 1993, due to the single market.  This is what they have calculated.  It's not the annual gain during this time, it is the total over the period 1993 to the cutoff date in the report (I said 27 years before but it might be a bit less than that.).  

For the future, if the SM gained us 2.2% over 20-odd years, you have got to wonder where the 8% poorer over 15 years has come from.  This forecast is not backed up by the previous evidence is it?

 

 

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4 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

by remainer Logic Hunt won by a country mile; and the will of the Tory party needs confirming in a second vote.

 

You're already about the 5th person I've seen make this joke on social media and it's only been a few minutes.

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

Now you accept that the future is unknowable neither of us is in a tangle.

It is obvious. But you seem to think otherwise when it suits you.

Edited by IMHAL

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36 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Before asking what will have to be cut if spending is reduced I'd ask what have we gained from the significantly increased spending? What's changed as it went up?

Much has changed in education and the NHS. It's a good but complex question. You would probably need to do your own research on that and even then I suspect you will not get an unbiased view from the many sources that must be available.

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12 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

It is obvious. But you seem to think otherwise when it suits you.

No I'm always consistent - that's part of my innate charm.

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10 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Much has changed in education and the NHS. It's a good but complex question. You would probably need to do your own research on that and even then I suspect you will not get an unbiased view from the many sources that must be available.

We won't be able to find out on Google that is for sure.

NHS hospital beds -half the number for double the spend.  Someone has got this money but they won't tell you who.

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3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

It's morning again in Great Britain.

Nobody mention ten years of austerity or the £2 trillion national debt.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/22/boris-johnson-prepared-turn-spending-taps-tax-break-help-squeezed/

 

"It's morning again in Great Britain."

Dunkin' Donuts just used that exact phrase talking to Jeremy Vine. ūü§£

 

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8 minutes ago, kzb said:

We won't be able to find out on Google that is for sure.

NHS hospital beds -half the number for double the spend.  Someone has got this money but they won't tell you who.

NHS spending is probably the more complicated one because medicine always advances, which will keep pushing the costs up, both directly for new treatments and with keeping people going for longer. There can never be as much money for medicine as it would ideally want - but that shouldn't be used to mask asking the question about whether the basics have unjustifiably risen in cost too. I'm rather less persuaded that we've got anything out of increased education spending although admittedly that is from subjective casual opinion.

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14 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Let's hope our friends in the EU tell the blonde buffoon where to go.

 

Buckingham Palace then No 10 isn’t it?

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The Institute of Directors has presented a five-point plan for the new PM.

1. Spend

2. Spend

3. Spend

4. Spend

5. Spend

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4 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Buckingham Palace then No 10 isn’t it?

You seem happy, you have a "can do" leader....

I look forward to seeing the buffoon get his comeuppance at the hands of the grownups in the EU leadership...

6f2r7Ty.jpg

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2 minutes ago, winkie said:

Some people like Boris because they see themselves in him.....the rest do not.;)

He's one of those people where I can't decide who annoys me more - him or the people who complain about him.

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19 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

You seem happy, you have a "can do" leader....

I look forward to seeing the buffoon get his comeuppance at the hands of the grownups in the EU leadership...

6f2r7Ty.jpg

 

I am happy.

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45 minutes ago, kzb said:

We won't be able to find out on Google that is for sure.

NHS hospital beds -half the number for double the spend.  Someone has got this money but they won't tell you who.

Fraud, waste, management salaries, backhanders, etc. Advances in science and technology makes things cheaper, and that includes health care.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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