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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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On 11/07/2019 at 04:58, Si1 said:

Singapore, Pakistan, New Zealand, Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, Iceland, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Macao, South Korea, Australia and Taiwan

 

(All have achieved trade agreements with China whereas EU has none, I think)

So, you're just basing it on China? Could you do a bit more of a technical breakdown? 

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10 hours ago, zugzwang said:

They're f**ked like the rest of us unless the bubble of phantom of equity in the housing market is extinguished.

The Tory boys have squandered a decade and a trillion pounds re-substantiating it.

 

6770371-15180985582589686.png

Yes, but what would Labour have done differently? I distinctly remember Ed Balls et al demanding 'stimulus' ..... the tories have just carried out his policies.

?

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8 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

So far Brexit has done less than nothing to suit leavers and there is little sign that it ever will.

Errr, it has resulted in a devalued GBP, lower wages by international standards, a society more hostile to immigration. Fewer Europeans want to move to the UK as a result.

That is what brexiters wanted.

Edited by dugsbody

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11 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You may be attempting to explain your views but that doesn't stop them being illogical.

If the government decided to remain in the EU that would not imply keeping a status quo in regard to our relation to the EU, rather they would be highly incentivised to change whatever aspects of our membership led to the vote for Brexit.

In the short term that would mean implementing Cameron's deal, stopping blaming the EU for problems of our own making and full use of existing powers to address migration concerns. 

In the longer term the EU will continue to evolve and we could have a large say in how it did. At the next treaty change the UK would be well placed to achieve its objectives in return for letting others achieve theirs.  

A Panglossian view and, IMV, quite unrealistic.

IMV the Euro will decide the future of the EU project. The Euro is driving divergence not convergence and needs a fiscal and banking union to be sustainable. This looks very unlikely but the next crisis, which looks much nearer than even six months ago, may just be severe enough to provide that impetus and, in so doing, brings a federal state much nearer. If we had rejoined and this did happen then we would leave - and this time for good. Saying that we are not part of the Euro and we have a derogation from "ever closer union" is irrelevant; the direction for the EU will be set and it will be a choice: you're either in a unified Europe or out.

The alternative is some sort of break up of the EZ which will be cataclysmic for the EU because the Euro is a symbol of European unity. What comes out of this may be much more to our liking but this will be resisted mightily because it will be seen as a reversal of the project.

The smart thing to do is get out now, await developments and review in five or ten years time. The assumption that the EU will "evolve" with its implication of BAU is wide of the mark; for the EU the next ten years is about survival not evolution.

Edited by crouch

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1 hour ago, cnick said:

Yes, but what would Labour have done differently? I distinctly remember Ed Balls et al demanding 'stimulus' ..... the tories have just carried out his policies.

?

We're living through most acute housing shortage since 1945. A nationwide program of general needs social housing ought to have been Job No. 1 in 2010 rather than HtB/FLS etc, followed by a massive program of fixed capital investment in the NHS, schools, roads and the re-nationalised railways and utilities. The absurd idea of a 'contractionary fiscal expansion' should never have been entertained. Johnson and Hunt should formally apologise for helping to foist austerity on the country, given that both of them now implicitly reject it.

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59 minutes ago, crouch said:

A Panglossian view and, IMV, quite unrealistic.

IMV the Euro will decide the future of the EU project. The Euro is driving divergence not convergence and needs a fiscal and banking union to be sustainable. This looks very unlikely but the next crisis, which looks much nearer than even six months ago, may just be severe enough to provide that impetus and, in so doing, brings a federal state much nearer. If we had rejoined and this did happen then we would leave - and this time for good. Saying that we are not part of the Euro and we have a derogation from "ever closer union" is irrelevant; the direction for the EU will be set and it will be a choice: you're either in a unified Europe or out.

The alternative is some sort of break up of the EZ which will be cataclysmic for the EU because the Euro is a symbol of European unity. What comes out of this may be much more to our liking but this will be resisted mightily because it will be seen as a reversal of the project.

The smart thing to do is get out now, await developments and review in five or ten years time. The assumption that the EU will "evolve" with its implication of BAU is wide of the mark; for the EU the next ten years is about survival not evolution.

You may be right about when the Euro crisis arrives but equally people may be writing similar in 20 years time. 

Inside the EU we would get to influence how the EU reacts to that crisis and can ensure that whatever the solution arrived at it takes account of our needs. 

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

The smart thing to do is get out now, await developments and review in five or ten years time. The assumption that the EU will "evolve" with its implication of BAU is wide of the mark; for the EU the next ten years is about survival not evolution.

The smart thing to do would be to seek a 5-10 yr Brexit extension with EU until an operational solution can be found to the Irish border question. And then have another vote.

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5 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

We're living through most acute housing shortage since 1945. A nationwide program of general needs social housing ought to have been Job No. 1 in 2010 rather than HtB/FLS etc, followed by a massive program of fixed capital investment in the NHS, schools, roads and the re-nationalised railways and utilities. The absurd idea of a 'contractionary fiscal expansion' should never have been entertained. Johnson and Hunt should formally apologise for helping to foist austerity on the country, given that both of them now implicitly reject it.

Yes, but the trouble is, some of us can remember the 70s winter of discontent etc. Could anything have been done at that time to prevent the excess power of the unions. I'd blame the politico-bankers for allowing over supply of money to give, only, to a certain group in society...maybe.

?

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13 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You may be right about when the Euro crisis arrives but equally people may be writing similar in 20 years time. 

Based on past experience this certainly can't be ruled out. The problem with this view however is that the divergence is getting worse between the North and South and the whole set up of the Euro is driving this. This is very unlikely to go into reverse and the southern economies with high levels of unemployment are now beset by hysteresis, a permanent deterioration in skill levels, which simply compounds the problems. The point is it's a largely one way street - down.

 

18 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Inside the EU we would get to influence how the EU reacts to that crisis and can ensure that whatever the solution arrived at it takes account of our needs. 

We're involved with it in or out; there's no escape. 

As to it taking account of our needs that is likely to be a minor issue as we are not members of the EZ, although an important financial centre so in the line for huge collateral damage.

I still think it unlikely that the EU will go down the road of fiscal or banking union in which case some sort of break up of the EZ is more likely. However, as I say, this will be vehemently resisted because it strikes at the whole idea of unification and, no matter what is said by some heads of state, the idea of a US of Europe is still a fond idea of the EU priesthood AKA the Commission.

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18 minutes ago, crouch said:

Based on past experience this certainly can't be ruled out. The problem with this view however is that the divergence is getting worse between the North and South and the whole set up of the Euro is driving this. This is very unlikely to go into reverse and the southern economies with high levels of unemployment are now beset by hysteresis, a permanent deterioration in skill levels, which simply compounds the problems. The point is it's a largely one way street - down.

Why is Spain growing faster than Germany then?

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42 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

We're living through most acute housing shortage since 1945.

followed by a massive program of fixed capital investment in the NHS, schools, roads and the re-nationalised railways and utilities.

The acute housing shortage is caused by importing a net 200,000 people every year. They are not living on the streets,  (well just a few), so they must be accommodated somewhere.

Spending on schools is very high, ramping up partiucularly during the Labour years 1997 to 2010. If the money was so well spent, why have we so many shortages in critical professions and so many unemployables?

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42 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

We're living through most acute housing shortage since 1945.

followed by a massive program of fixed capital investment in the NHS, schools, roads and the re-nationalised railways and utilities.

The acute housing shortage is caused by importing a net 200,000 people every year. They are not living on the streets,  (well just a few), so they must be accommodated somewhere.

Spending on schools is very high, ramping up partiucularly during the Labour years 1997 to 2010. If the money was so well spent, why have we so many shortages in critical professions and so many unemployables?

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

IMV the Euro will decide the future of the EU project.

It's revealing that people who hold this view never conclude that because the Euro has failed to collapse as predicted, the future of the EU is secure.  They merely postpone their predictions of doom.

I remember Brexiteers confidently predicting that there wouldn't be an EU left to leave by the time Article 50 ran out...

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15 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

:D Even funnier if you actually responded with something of a higher order than a BoJo quip.

It'll keep :)

Sure, once you’ve made your point Ill respond. Well maybe lol !  do you remember trying to discuss four Wikipedia paragraphs on populism ?

Bearing in mind you are still in a 2 year  racist tantrum over criticism of the Breaking Point poster, surely you cannot  resist  concocting some sort of point over EU border control ? Be odd if you didn’t...

Or is it that you are now having a tantrum over criticism of the Windrush scandal / Tory sharia hysteria ? 

Anyway, don’t be shy knock yerself out ! :)

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29 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Bank of England's Vlieghe: no-deal Brexit could mean near zero interest rates - business live

Policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe said rates might have to be cut to virtually zero if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal

 

Wonder what that will do to house prices?

Funny that, because last week it was that interest rates would have to rise because of inflation and a reduced exchange rate.

Bascially, they haven't got a clue and are just making up any old scary crap as they feel like it.

 

 

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Quote

 

BEIS warns its own failure to prepare for Brexit could disrupt economy

The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy has warned it is at high risk of not being adequately prepared for the UK’s departure from the EU, despite hundreds of millions of pounds allocated to its Brexit teams.

In its annual report, the department says it “may fail to prepare for the challenges and opportunities of leaving the EU and the post EU exit environment, leading to an adverse impact for the UK economy”.

endsreport

 

And that could be a serious problem, one of several things .

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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