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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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21 minutes ago, crouch said:

Irrelevant. 

The most restrictive interpretation of the FOM rules gives less control than we could have as a completely sovereign nation.

As I said your unicorn gynamistics are spectacular today.

Only a leaver could dismiss legal facts as irrelevant. 

Keep those unicorn gymnastics up; it looks like you are headed for straight 10's. 

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1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

We don't want any more EU immigrants - get with the program old chap.

Ever heard of remote desktop?

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12 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I'd be much more worried about Hong Kong. And our betrayal of it if I were you.

After Brexit, we'll kowtow to whatever promises us a sniff of trade. Could be Russia, Saudi, Turkey, the Philippines, Brazil - definitely China.

Little Britain, little England can't even honour its pledges - to be even worse after Brexit.

Very sad to see. I went there on holiday whilst it was still British Hong Kong. Kai tak was something else!

It’s not ours anymore; what do you suggest we do about it?

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Just now, crouch said:

Ever heard of remote desktop?

I have. But I think it's more appropriate for fixing the computers of old people, rather than to discuss the intricacies of billions of dollars worth of trade over 10 years.

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2 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Very sad to see. I went there on holiday whilst it was still British Hong Kong. Kai tak was something else!

It’s not ours anymore; what do you suggest we do about it?

Two things

1) Apply sanctions on China unilaterally. Stop doing any business with them. No more pig's trotters from us. No more tat from them. If we can do it with the EU, we certainly can do it with China. After all, we're British.

2) If that doesn't work, we can send our aircraft carriers - finally a real use case

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/13/hong-kong-protesters-attack-britains-response-erosion-rights/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/12/britain-failed-hong-kong/

But it involves morality. So feck 'em in other words.

 

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21 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I have. But I think it's more appropriate for fixing the computers of old people, rather than to discuss the intricacies of billions of dollars worth of trade over 10 years.

You obviously haven't lived.

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13 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Two things

1) Apply sanctions on China unilaterally. Stop doing any business with them. No more pig's trotters from us. No more tat from them. If we can do it with the EU, we certainly can do it with China. After all, we're British.

2) If that doesn't work, we can send our aircraft carriers - finally a real use case

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/13/hong-kong-protesters-attack-britains-response-erosion-rights/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/12/britain-failed-hong-kong/

But it involves morality. So feck 'em in other words.

 

1. Sanctions on China?

2. Carriers in the South China Sea.

Are you Gavin Williamson?

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35 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Only a leaver could dismiss legal facts as irrelevant. 

No indeed as the link you gave was consistent with what I've been saying.

Keep those unicorn gymnastics up; it looks like you are headed for straight 10's. 

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7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

This imaginary status quo is just another of your peculiar perceptions. Much has already changed since the vote just not for the good.

Imagine how much we could have changed for the good by now if the economic/political resources already gobbled up by 3 years of Brexit induced paralysis had been invested in making things better. 

 

The change wouldn`t have happened though, Brexit IS the change.

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1 hour ago, dances with sheeple said:

The change wouldn`t have happened though, Brexit IS the change.

That is true in part. Brexit has created circumstances that will force change but I fear the massive  economic/political resources already consumed, plus the prospect of having a permanently smaller economy, will make it near impossible to achieve an overall positive outcome.  

 

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2 hours ago, crouch said:

These are trade offs. 

Being part of the EU means, quite rightly, that you follow the collective interest of the 28. Being outside means that you don't have the same heft but can tailor your trade policy to something nearer to your interests. This is swings and roundabouts; trade offs.

As to the hardcore negotiators I agree but the reason we don't have them is because we don't have an independent trade policy; this is done by the EU. I'd recruit from wherever I could get people.

The UK's core interests include frictionless and borderless trade with Ireland.  How do you propose to move nearer to that interest outside the EU?

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2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Very sad to see. I went there on holiday whilst it was still British Hong Kong. Kai tak was something else!

It’s not ours anymore; what do you suggest we do about it?

We are a guarantor of the legally binding handover treaty, so what we should be doing is holding China to account, in just the same way as the EU is with us over the Good Friday treaty.

That we are afraid to do anything is a reflection of the weak position we have put ourselves in.  

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2 hours ago, crouch said:

These are trade offs. 

Being part of the EU means, quite rightly, that you follow the collective interest of the 28. Being outside means that you don't have the same heft but can tailor your trade policy to something nearer to your interests. This is swings and roundabouts; trade offs.

As to the hardcore negotiators I agree but the reason we don't have them is because we don't have an independent trade policy; this is done by the EU. I'd recruit from wherever I could get people.

We have a highly developed diverse economy. As a whole the EU also has a highly developed diverse economy. As such there is not that much to be gained from designing trade deals specific to the UK rather than as part of the EU.

I would guess not nearly enough to offset our reduced clout in trade negotiation v the EU. And that's without considering the cost of Brexit during the years it takes us to negotiate these slightly inferior deals and the impact on our trade with the EU itself.

If you want to do some research there are links to studies into possible benefit from tailored trade deals upthread.     

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

We are a guarantor of the legally binding handover treaty, so what we should be doing is holding China to account, in just the same way as the EU is with us over the Good Friday treaty.

That we are afraid to do anything is a reflection of the weak position we have put ourselves in.  

I don’t see how being in the EU (no brexit) would make any difference to our influence against China.

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2 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I don’t see how being in the EU (no brexit) would make any difference to our influence against China.

If all European powers had fully merged their sovereignty in the 1970s, including overseas territories, negotiations over the handover might have been very different.

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

We have a highly developed diverse economy. As a whole the EU also has a highly developed diverse economy. As such there is not that much to be gained from designing trade deals specific to the UK rather than as part of the EU.

This implicitly assumes that our objectives are the same as the EU. I was assuming they may not be in which case things may be different as we are not subsumed under the EU's objectives. The point about the trade aspects of Brexit is that it does enable us to strike out in a different direction.

5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I would guess not nearly enough to offset our reduced clout in trade negotiation v the EU. And that's without considering the cost of Brexit during the years it takes us to negotiate these slightly inferior deals and the impact on our trade with the EU itself.

You may be right but, as I said above, the context may be different. Clout can't be dismissed and there's no doubt that we'll have much less heft.

By different direction I mean our strengths might be in innovation, tech type industries or high grade services. The fact is that the EU has to compromise in its trade policy because it has to proceed on the basis that it secures the interests of 28; we can proceed on the basis of one.

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5 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

If all European powers had fully merged their sovereignty in the 1970s, including overseas territories, negotiations over the handover might have been very different.

LMFAO

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4 minutes ago, crouch said:

You may be right but, as I said above, the context may be different. Clout can't be dismissed and there's no doubt that we'll have much less heft.

By different direction I mean our strengths might be in innovation, tech type industries or high grade services. The fact is that the EU has to compromise in its trade policy because it has to proceed on the basis that it secures the interests of 28; we can proceed on the basis of one.

The UK is not one nation, let alone a unified single interest group.  Brexit does nothing to further the unified pursuit of a national objective.  In fact it furthers the interests of those who want to abolish the UK.  You’re a useful idiot.

Edited by thecrashingisles

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17 minutes ago, crouch said:

This implicitly assumes that our objectives are the same as the EU. I was assuming they may not be in which case things may be different as we are not subsumed under the EU's objectives. The point about the trade aspects of Brexit is that it does enable us to strike out in a different direction.

You may be right but, as I said above, the context may be different. Clout can't be dismissed and there's no doubt that we'll have much less heft.

By different direction I mean our strengths might be in innovation, tech type industries or high grade services. The fact is that the EU has to compromise in its trade policy because it has to proceed on the basis that it secures the interests of 28; we can proceed on the basis of one.

No.

Similar to the 'nobody can argue against more control' this is a simplistic statement that sounds OK on the surface but glosses over the fact its completely misleading in principle.

The EU isn't a single country with a nationalist policy. Its comprises 28 countries all with different 'objectives'. If there is an objective it is general rather than specific ie to collaborate and cooperate to mutual advantage.

Slightly more specific is the divergence from the anglo-american economic model - but then we've been free to try this and it seems to have brought us a lot of grief, including the misdirection of Brexit. More specific than that of course are the four freedoms and the single market but thats still pretty 'general'.

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Construction%20pay%20soars%20(Custom).jp

Asking salaries in the construction industry are rising despite Brexit uncertainty, according to new research from specialist recruiter Randstad Construction, Property & Engineering.

The survey into almost 6,800 permanent placed construction jobs shows salaries across the sector rose by an average 9% in the 12 months to May 30 2018 – despite a drop in the number of vacancies being advertised.

http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/jun-2019/construction-pay-soars-brexodus-skills-shortage-bites-says-new-report

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7 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Just get on with what though? May negotiated a minimal withdrawal agreement which was just ending the UK's membership of the EU and leaving all end states on the table to be decided afterwards and Brexiteers don't seem to even want that. If they want WTO that's fine but they should win a mandate for it, the UK is a democracy.

The single most convincing argument against a no deal brexit... bar none.

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53 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I don’t see how being in the EU (no brexit) would make any difference to our influence against China.

Hard to see how you could think that. For most people the loss of influence as we move from being a leading EU member to a being a medium sized country desperate for trade deals is blindingly obvious. 

If we were still a leading member of the EU we may have organised, or threatened to, sanctions against China. I suspect the prospect of taking on the EU at the same time as the US wouldn't have been that appealing to China.

 

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Hard to see how you could think that. For most people the loss of influence as we move from being a leading EU member to a being a medium sized country desperate for trade deals is blindingly obvious. 

If we were still a leading member of the EU we may have organised, or threatened to, sanctions against China. I suspect the prospect of taking on the EU at the same time as the US wouldn't have been that appealing to China.

 

Loss of influence arises from handing over our manufacturing industry to China, and not having the guts to shut down imports from there if necessary to make a point. Trump sees it as it is, shame remoaners can't.

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  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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