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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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13 minutes ago, cica said:

Question on BBC debate from Carmella who has a husband in the property industry who is terrified of no deal. I’m starting to think no deal might be good idea if it’s specifically spooking them.

Christ, she’s worried about her banker and vet son. 

Yes very interesting how many times she mentioned how terrifed she was about her husband in the property business. For the bbc to choose her question shows how focussed they too are on property.

Bring on the house price collapes I say.

Surely that would do her son (if he is not already in property too) and a whole young generation nothing but good?

Edited by moonriver
repeated self

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6 minutes ago, cica said:

Question on BBC debate from Carmella who has a husband in the property industry who is terrified of no deal. I’m starting to think no deal might be good idea if it’s specifically spooking them.

Christ, she’s worried about her banker and vet son. 

She's right to worry. The loss of passporting rights alone will cost tens of thousands of UK jobs in finance and insurance and force the relocation of tens of thousands more to the continent. Any move away from mutual recognition status in services will provide the French (for instance) with a convenient instrument to eternally frustrate and undermine the operation of City interests everywhere in Europe.

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6 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The loss of passporting rights alone will cost tens of thousands of UK jobs in finance and insurance and force the relocation of tens of thousands more to the continent.

What proportion of the British workforce, in finance / insurance, would that be?

 

Edited by A.steve

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27 minutes ago, cica said:

Question on BBC debate from Carmella who has a husband in the property industry who is terrified of no deal. I’m starting to think no deal might be good idea if it’s specifically spooking them.

Christ, she’s worried about her banker and vet son. 

Good point, they should get car workers and other manufacturing workers  facing redundancy so pensioners on triple locked and  final salary pensions can mock them.

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33 minutes ago, A.steve said:

What proportion of the British workforce, in finance in insurance, would that be?

 

You're missing the point. Those job losses would be just a precursor. The Treasury believes that the loss of mutual recognition status in services would lead to the relocation of substantial amounts of activity from the UK to the EU. Additionally, we should expect regulatory exercises and interventions from some govt actors deliberately intended to undermine and frustrate UK interests. The relocation of EU facing business would have a significant knock-on implications for the City's ability to conduct business with the rest of the world due to lost economies of scale and as a result of these factors London's status as a global financial hub would be severely impaired. In addition to the above a WTO Brexit with strict controls over freedom of movement would limit the City's easy access to international talent.

 

 

Edited by zugzwang

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2 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

:)

Yes, you did but what is your point regarding, "the 58% increase of Indian people." and, " Looking at the numbers, Nigel Farage's propaganda poster is getting a brand new meaning,"

 

 

image.png.1e9c3aeb9552fa7c1eadefa6b0789714.png

I pointed out the much criticized in 2016 Eastern Europeans (-25) are being replaced now in 2019 by another immigrants, from India (+58).

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13 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

There is no evidence for that.

It’s complete project fear.

It's not about evidence. It's about us being told many times that brexiters voted to leave the EU, the rest is up to the Tory government. Therefore the above is what brexiters voted for.

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20 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

You're missing the point. Those job losses would be just a precursor. The Treasury believes that the loss of mutual recognition status in services would lead to the relocation of substantial amounts of activity from the UK to the EU. Additionally, we should expect regulatory exercises and interventions from some govt actors deliberately intended to undermine and frustrate UK interests. The relocation of EU facing business would have a significant knock-on implications for the City's ability to conduct business with the rest of the world due to lost economies of scale and as a result of these factors London's status as a global financial hub would be severely impaired. In addition to the above a WTO Brexit with strict controls over freedom of movement would limit the City's easy access to international talent.

I don't see how asking for a context for numbers you provided (by prefering to also have a ratio - not just an absolute number) is missing the point.  Let me ask a follow-on question:  If we take into account both direct and indirect reductions in the number of people employed in finance/insurance in the UK... what is a credible expectation for any reduction - as a percentage of the existing workforce in this sector - within 1, 5, 10, 20, 40 years?

 

 

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1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

She's right to worry. The loss of passporting rights alone will cost tens of thousands of UK jobs in finance and insurance and force the relocation of tens of thousands more to the continent. Any move away from mutual recognition status in services will provide the French (for instance) with a convenient instrument to eternally frustrate and undermine the operation of City interests everywhere in Europe.

These sort of things are already underway. There is no chance Europe will let a country outside of its single market be their banker. They're not about to sit tight and wait for the UK to make up its mind.

Most brexiters don't care though because we've already established that brexit isn't about making people better off, at least economically. It is about reducing the number of European immigrants moving here and apparently the increased happiness from not having those immigrants here will outweigh the economic costs.

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1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

£15bn that one, so about 1% of the UK's international trade.

....that means together with China.... only another 98.8xxx percent to go......woohoo...... what a cunch of  bunts.

These Brexiteers are so deluded as to be laughable. 

 

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3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

LOL 

Surely you cannot know so little about the realities of making trade deals to believe that. From a position of strength and with what is reckoned to be the world's best trade negotiation team it has taken the EU 40 years to build a comprehensive set of trade deals.

How long do you think it will take us to get anywhere near replicating what we have today. 

I actually disagree with this. The Tories will be so desperate to show they can "do deals" that they'll cave to pretty much any demands of the other side and try to wave these things through.

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9 hours ago, moonriver said:

Yes very interesting how many times she mentioned how terrifed she was about her husband in the property business. For the bbc to choose her question shows how focussed they too are on property.

Bring on the house price collapes I say.

Surely that would do her son (if he is not already in property too) and a whole young generation nothing but good?

If the BBC were focused on property maybe they would have chosen someone who explicitly worried about price falls.

Her husband's job might have a lot to do with volumes (particularly if he's an EA) or it might rely on a lot of foreign labour (if he's a builder), so he could lose his job even if prices don't fall. She didn't actually say she was worried about price falls, but even if she did, it wouldn't imply that prices will necessarily fall. Her fears may be misplaced or she may just be risk averse.

Price falls would be fantastic for people in a position to buy, but ideally this would be part of a change in relative prices rather than a depression. If prices fall due to a "disorderly Brexit" the situation will be a lot more mixed for young people. Some will be better off and some will be worse off. I don't think it's obvious they will be worse off on aggregate, but they would be worse off compared to an economy in which prices were lowered through sensible housing policies (immediate end to all counter-productive policies like HTB and immediate introduction of punitive taxes on landlords), which could achieved the desired goal of lower house prices with less impact on the rest of the economy.

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2 hours ago, A.steve said:

Interesting document... My original idea is that I'd like to know the terms on which we currently trade - as a member of the EU.  A specific baseline...

A baseline would be really good. We can then measure what we have lost, and how far we have to go to re-gain that which we have lost. Perhaps we could also hazard a guess at the opportunity cost.

It's a great idea and would be one way of measuring the success or otherwise of Brexit. 

I strongly suspect that such a comparison will never become available.... but only to ....ahem.......'save embarrassment'

Edited by IMHAL

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8 hours ago, dugsbody said:

I actually disagree with this. The Tories will be so desperate to show they can "do deals" that they'll cave to pretty much any demands of the other side and try to wave these things through.

Why will they suddenly become desperate? Why aren't they desperate now? If they were desperate, wouldn't they have indicated that Trump's comments about the NHS were fair?

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14 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Why will they suddenly become desperate? Why aren't they desperate now? If they were desperate, wouldn't they have indicated that Trump's comments about the NHS were fair?

Because they need to get elected and their voting base are dumb enough to be swayed by "look at all these deals we signed".

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51 minutes ago, A.steve said:

I don't see how asking for a context for numbers you provided (by prefering to also have a ratio - not just an absolute number) is missing the point.  Let me ask a follow-on question:  If we take into account both direct and indirect reductions in the number of people employed in finance/insurance in the UK... what is a credible expectation for any reduction - as a percentage of the existing workforce in this sector - within 1, 5, 10, 20, 40 years?

 

 

I don't see why are you asking these questions now. Surely you voted for Brexit, you should know the implications and you should have the answers.

I would have thought the the Brexit cheerleaders would have thought about the losses in the service and finance industry in terms  of absolute  monetary loss as well as jobs, tax take and secondary losses.

It reflects poorly that the Brexiteers do not understand the implications of Brexit. Hardly a good omen.  

Edited by IMHAL

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4 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Because they need to get elected and their voting base are dumb enough to be swayed by "look at all these deals we signed".

I think you are both right on this one. I think that initially we will wave through a few deals so that progress is perceived ..... but it is not sustainable long term of for major trade deals. ..... we will have a few tuppenny hapenny deals declared early........a la China 500m nickel and dime deals....to fool the gullible Sheeple (Splinters).

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31 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Why will they suddenly become desperate? Why aren't they desperate now? If they were desperate, wouldn't they have indicated that Trump's comments about the NHS were fair?

In any negotiation with the US over a trade deal the NHS will be on the table - the US negotiators will put it there and then extract a price  for removing it later.  Trumps comments were just to soften up the UK position by reminding our Politicians how important it will be for them to keep the NHS out of the final deal.

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57 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

I actually disagree with this. The Tories will be so desperate to show they can "do deals" that they'll cave to pretty much any demands of the other side and try to wave these things through.

I agree with that, but their desperation and the inherent power imbalance will mean that they will not obtain deals that are anything like as valuable as we have now.

Also even if we shortcut the process by effectively signing off on whatever countries are prepared to offer us the  process of defining and documenting a trade deal is still hugely complex and time consuming. Add in the near impossibility of doing multiple deals in parallel plus the legal constraints we will find ourselves working within, imposed by our new partners existing deals, and we are looking at a very long timeframe.

Finally don't forget that if we leave without a deal, we could easily spend the next 5-7 years negotiating just our EU deal.  

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1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I agree with that, but their desperation and the inherent power imbalance will mean that they will not obtain deals that are anything like as valuable as we have now.

Also even if we shortcut the process by effectively signing off on whatever countries are prepared to offer us the  process of defining and documenting a trade deal is still hugely complex and time consuming. Add in the near impossibility of doing multiple deals in parallel plus the legal constraints we will find ourselves working within, imposed by our new partners existing deals, and we are looking at a very long timeframe.

Finally don't forget that if we leave without a deal, we could easily spend the next 5-7 years negotiating just our EU deal.  

To back that up......Sir Ivan stated we would, after Brexit, continue negotiating with the EU......indefinitely...only to achieve a deal that is not as good as the one we have............that is truly something to look forward to.

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3 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Lol, £500m? The UK's total volume of international trade is about £1tn, and with China alone about £70bn. UK-EU trade is about £600bn.

That's true:

Quote

...

Bilateral trade between the UK and China is worth a record £68.5 billion a year, the UK’s fifth-largest trading relationship.

Over the past decade UK exports to China have tripled, making China the UK’s sixth largest market globally with more than 10,000 UK businesses now selling goods and services to China.

 

 

3 hours ago, Dorkins said:

£15bn that one, so about 1% of the UK's international trade.

:lol: You do have an insatiable appetite for schadenfreude!

 

Care to explain why the two announcements will not have a positive impact on UK trade, amongst other areas, in the future with China & South Korea?

More on this week's UK/China deal:

Quote

… 

Deals between British and Chinese companies worth more than £500 million were announced today, during a visit to the UK by Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua.

Published 17 June 2019
Last updated 18 June 2019 — see all updates
 
Members of EFD Conference sign commercial deals witnessed by Minister for Trade Policy, George Hollingbery MP.

Members of EFD Conference sign commercial deals witnessed by Minister for Trade Policy, George Hollingbery MP.

New business deals representing commercial signings, future contract commitments and MoUs, were agreed by British and Chinese companies as part of the 10th UK China Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) taking place in London this week.

The announcements were welcomed by the International Trade Secretary, Dr Liam Fox MP. In total, the deals are expected to deliver 175 new jobs in the UK, and deliver significant wins for the financial services, education, creative, food and agriculture and technology sectors.

Also announced today was a landmark market access agreement for British farmers, supported by the Department for International Trade (DIT) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), which could put UK producers on track to export British beef to China by the end of 2019.

The agreement is expected to be worth an estimated £230 million in the first 5 years.

Secretary of State for International Trade, Liam Fox MP, said:

Britain is a key partner for Chinese trade and investment, and is one of China’s most important trading partners in Europe.

Today’s announcements show the breadth and depth of our trading relationship, the success UK firms are having in China, and the huge opportunity the Chinese market holds for British companies, particularly with regards to market access.

As an international economic department, DIT will continue to support UK businesses to increase their share in this growing market and build on our substantial export figures, as we progress towards leaving the EU.

The deals were signed and agreed at a ceremony at Mansion House, witnessed by Minister for Trade Policy, George Hollingbery MP.

An MoU was also signed between DIT and the National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China on infrastructure cooperation in third countries.

This is a technical agreement that focusses on facilitating practical cooperation between UK and Chinese firms on projects overseas - ensuring that projects are delivered in line with the highest economic, environmental, social and financial standards in order to deliver sustainable, and inclusive development outcomes and deliver real opportunities for UK and international businesses.

Further information on commercial deals and MoUs:

Deals valued at £503 million have been agreed, creating 175 new jobs.

Financial Services

  • A new UK-China Fund, targeting £1 billion delivered in partnership by Charterhouse Capital, China Investment Corporation and HSBC to invest in UK SMEs with growth plans linked to China.

  • China Industrial Bank announced plans for a new representative office in London. The London Representative Office is expected to become an important base for the global initiatives of Industrial Bank.

  • MultiPass International and UnionPay International concluded an MoU to develop a digital payment platform to further expand issuance and acceptance of UnionPay branded cards outside mainland China. The new partnership is expected to create 105 new jobs over the next 3 years.

  • Redington’s Chinese subsidiary, Yuyuan Technology has signed commercial agreements with Taikang Life and Aviva-Cofco Life to provide interactive asset liability management tools.

  • OakNorth, Baillie Gifford and VCP Advisors have announced that they will set up a Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprise (WFOE) in China.

  • China Banking Association, Shanghai Stock Exchange, China Investment Corporation (CIC), The Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank have announced they will be upgrading existing branches, opening representative offices or opening new branches in the UK.

  • Establishment of Heng’An Standard Life’s (HASL) pension insurance business, the first awarded to a foreign- invested business in China.

  • Schroders have been awarded Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (QFLP) licences and quotas.

  • XTX markets will become the first foreign non-bank market maker on the CFETS’s G10 market.

Creative

  • BBC Studios announced a wide-ranging partnership with Promotional Partners Worldwide (PPW), to bring British children’s cartoon ‘Hey Duggee’ to China . The agreement will see PPW act as the agent and licensee for Hey Duggee for Greater China – including mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.

  • Cornwall’s The Lost Gardens of Heligan, one of the UK’s most well-known gardens, has announced a collaboration with Sheng lu Manor in Beijing to create a “Beijing Shenglu Heligan Garden’, to showcase the UK’s cultural, agronomic and horticulture expertise.

Energy and Built Environment

  • UK engineering consultancy company Arup and Shanghai Urban Construction Design & Research Institute (SUCDRI) have signed and MoU to cooperate on future infrastructure projects. The MoU follows a recently successful joint bid by the two organisations for the Shanghai Central Urban Area Drainage Masterplan project from Shanghai’s municipal government.

  • China National Petroleum Cooperation (CNPC), along with its joint venture partner INEOS, will invest in a New Energy Project in steam and electric power, at the Grangemouth facility. The plant will operational by 2022.

  • Hayward Tylor (HT) have signed an MoU agreement with Shinhoo Canned Motor Pumps (SH) to supply pumps for the energy and chemical industry.

  • Innovative Physics Limited (IPL) and CNNC Environmental Protection Co. (CEPC) have signed a collaboration framework agreement.

Education

  • Wonderbly a UK publishing and education technology company, has signed an MoU for strategic cooperation with China’s biggest publishing group – Phoenix Publishing and Media Group to bring innovative personalised reading and learning to the Chinese market

  • Cranleigh School and Cogdel Education Group signed an MoU lasting 25 years denoting a partnership to set up Cranleigh’s bilingual school in China.

  • Thames Holdings Ltd and Shenzhen Fuzhida Management Ltd, signed a contract to form a joint venture to establish 50 nurseries across China in next 5 years.

  • Repton and Kingold have signed an MOU to set up Repton’s billingual schools initially in the Greater Bay Areas.

Tech

  • Micro Focus, one of the UK’s largest listed technology companies, announced a series of partnership deals with Chinese company H3C, marking its continued expansion into the Chinese market.

Food and Drink

  • Export wins for Hayman’s range of Gins; London Distillery; McCann Apples; Rooney Fish; Newby Tea and Baijiu Society...

 

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7 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

That's true:

 

:lol: You do have an insatiable appetite for schadenfreude!

 

Care to explain why the two announcements will not have a positive impact on UK trade, amongst other areas, in the future with China & South Korea?

More on this week's UK/China deal:

 

My auntie Hatty also sold a pair of ear muffs to someone in Azerbaijan on ebay the other day......that has got to go some way to repairing the hole left by Brexit. 

Edited by IMHAL

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3 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Lol, £500m? The UK's total volume of international trade is about £1tn, and with China alone about £70bn. UK-EU trade is about £600bn.

 

Overseas Trade Statistics - EU and NON-EU Trade

Apr19_Trade.gif

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

Quote

...

Non-EU Trade in Goods:

  • Non-EU Exports for April 2019 were £17.4 billion. This was an increase of £0.6 billion (3.3%) on last month, and an increase of £3.0 billion (21%) compared with April 2018.
     
  • Non-EU Imports for April 2019 were £19.9 billion. This was a decrease of £1.4 billion (6.7%) on last month, and an increase of £1.8 billion (9.9%) compared with April 2018.
     
  • For Non-EU trade the UK was a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £2.4 billion.
     

EU Trade in Goods:

  • EU Exports for April 2019 were £12.5 billion. This was a decrease of £4.4 billion (26%) on last month, and a decrease of £1.2 billion (8.6%) compared with April 2018.
     
  • EU Imports for April 2019 were £19.9 billion. This was a decrease of £7.2 billion (27%) on last month, and a decrease of £1.4 billion (6.8%) compared with April 2018.
     
  • For EU trade the UK was a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £7.4 billion.

 

Do you disagree with the trade statistics for Asia and other emerging markets?

Edited by Sheeple Splinter
table added

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4 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

:lol: £500m 🤣🤣 You are taking gullibility to new heights here.

4 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

These roll over deals are not all they seem, they only really take account of direct A to B imports/exports of finished goods, they don't take account of goods/services that form inputs into multi country supply chains, or that will be reexported to EU states or other third countries under existing EU trade deals.

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

My auntie Hatty also sold a pair of ear muffs to someone in Azerbaijan on ebay the other day......that has got to go some way to repairing the hole left by Brexit. 

Only in the eyes of the uninformed. :P

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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