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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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2 hours ago, smash said:

I've watched a couple of those Ivan Rogers talks/interviews including the one you have mentioned where he says that Norway and Switzerland are in constant discussions with the EU.Do you think that the expectations that the public have been led toward about what Brexit will mean, how long it will take etc. accurately reflect what the reality will turn out to be?

Candidly - no. I think the truth been  obscured and if anyone should know it's Ivan Rogers because he implies this in virtually all his talks..

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Boris Island !

The Garden Bridge !

Brexit is Going to be Easy Because Germany Wants to Sell Cars !

Jokes About Colonial Days Whilst Visiting Previously Occupied Nations as Foreign Secretary !

Me for Leader and PM !

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4 minutes ago, smash said:

Boris Island !

The Garden Bridge !

Brexit is Going to be Easy Because Germany Wants to Sell Cars !

Jokes About Colonial Days Whilst Visiting Previously Occupied Nations as Foreign Secretary !

Me for Leader and PM !

European leaders can “go whistle” if they expect Britain to pay a divorce bill for withdrawing from the EU.

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1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

If you watch the vid I posted he doesn't have to say it's stupid.... he says it so much better.... because he's a diplomat.

You are nice enough, but you are a real fruitcake, and pretty much wrong headed on every level.

You're wrong. In fact in all of his videos he never says whether Brexit is a good thing or a bad thing, nor I think does he even imply it. He severely criticises the way it has been handled - the process - which is correct but: firstly he believes we will leave the EU and secondly he is optimistic about the country in the long term. After all those videos I have no idea whether he would have voted to stay or leave.

I'm not the only one whose wrong headed.

 

Edited by crouch

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11 minutes ago, crouch said:

You're wrong. In fact in all of his videos he never says whether Brexit is a good thing or a bad thing, nor I think does he even imply it. He severely criticises the way it has been handled - the process - which is correct but: firstly he believes we will leave the EU and secondly he is optimistic about the country in the long term. After all those videos I have no idea whether he would have voted to stay or leave.

Where do you get the sense that he is optimistic that a badly-handled Brexit will lead to a positive outcome?

Here for example he says that the downside of getting out is "pretty severe and the way in which we're doing it makes it potentially more severe".

 

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1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

Are you optimistic that it going to be possible to maintain the level of political consensus and discipline necessary to execute a successful Brexit over a 10 year period?  If you've listened to Ivan Rogers you will know that he is not optimistic about this, and believes that the risk of No Deal is much higher than most people think.

As far as the politics is concerned the impact of Brexit may well be on the political system far more than economically. The country has been moving away from a two party system for years now and Brexit may well sound the death knell of that system. I don't believe that the Brexit party will last but that doesn't mean that we'll return to status quo ante because I don't think we will. What may well emerge is a coalition type structure which may be advantageous in that it is far more likely to be able to accommodate a long term view of things than the current Punch and Judy show.

Will we have the level of political consensus and discipline necessary to execute a successful Brexit over a 10 year period? Good question. I think we should have some sort of long term plan or at least agreement on where we are going as a nation. Will we get it? I have considerable doubts.

As to the next ten years Rogers even uses the word tumultuous and I think he may well be right but he is optimistic about the longer term seeing that we have considerable strength in some areas.

 

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3 minutes ago, crouch said:

As far as the politics is concerned the impact of Brexit may well be on the political system far more than economically.

Only if it is managed in such a way as to minimise the impact on the economy.  A no deal Brexit will not do that.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

Where do you get the sense that he is optimistic that a badly-handled Brexit will lead to a positive outcome?

I don't think he does. His optimism concerns the fact that we have a malleable political structure that has shown its capacity for change over many years and can therefore meet the challenge of Brexit without an out and out revolution.

Furthermore he sees that in certain economic areas we have strengths which can be developed and this is the source of his optimism. He also observes that there are weaknesses of course.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

Only if it is managed in such a way as to minimise the impact on the economy.  A no deal Brexit will not do that.

I can't comment on that but there are different version of no deal so I'm not sure that it can be ruled out in principle. What has surprised me is that we did not start full on no deal preparations long ago and that the EU has not done likewise ( of course they may have but I'm unaware of that).

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19 minutes ago, crouch said:

Candidly - no. I think the truth been  obscured and if anyone should know it's Ivan Rogers because he implies this in virtually all his talks..

You obviously haven't invested too much in brexit but I suspect that a large section of the population haven't piled in behind it with such caution. When I watch things like Brexit party rallies or look at content on social media I get a very strong sense of the emotional and this leads me to conclude that many will end up acutely disappointed. I'm imagining people in the BBC Question Time audience in five years time saying things like "why is the Government sending a trade delegation to the EU?"

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

I can't comment on that but there are different version of no deal so I'm not sure that it can be ruled out in principle. What has surprised me is that we did not start full on no deal preparations long ago and that the EU has not done likewise ( of course they may have but I'm unaware of that).

You can't prepare for no deal at the same time as you deny the consequences of no deal.  For example, how do you prepare for no deal in Northern Ireland?  Would you want to be the contractor building the customs infrastructure?

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Just now, crouch said:

You're wrong. In fact in all of his videos he never says whether Brexit is a good thing or a bad thing, nor I think does he even imply it. He severely criticises the way it has been handled - the process which is correct but: firstly he believes we will leave the EU and secondly he is optimistic about the country in the long term. After all those videos I have no idea whether he would have voted to stay or leave.

I'm not the only one whose wrong headed.

 

Ivan is a practical and clever sort... he accepts the reality of the current situation and he takes a pragmatic stance on how to make the best of the current situation. It is evident that he thinks Brexit was handled badly. He thinks it could have been handled better but he also points out that better is not better (economically) than the status quo. He makes no comment on the process (that I can see)..... other than to say that a Brexit model was not chosen prior to the referendum and it was not chosen deliberatly so as not to fracture the Leave vote. An error that is continuing to hamper and hound us. Since you cannot enact all flavours of Brexit that is tantamount to the votes for Brexit being elicited under false pretenses.

Quite why you are so optimistic when he has pointed out the multitude of risks going forward and the train wreck that has been our approach to the process and the negotiations is beyond me...almost. You are a Eurogeddon'ista afterall. 

I find your level of delusion very hard going in the face of those videos outlined by Sir Ivan. 

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Just now, smash said:

You obviously haven't invested too much in brexit but I suspect that a large section of the population haven't piled in behind it with such caution. When I watch things like Brexit party rallies or look at content on social media I get a very strong sense of the emotional and this leads me to conclude that many will end up acutely disappointed. I'm imagining people in the BBC Question Time audience in five years time saying things like "why is the Government sending a trade delegation to the EU?"

What many remainers fail to recognise is that a substantial part of the population are not happy with the EU, they never have been and they are unhappy where it is headed. This is an issue of long standing and it is quite fundamental. It is never just being "lied to" or "mislead" it is faar more than that.

Many will be disappointed because they are unaware of the nature of these things. Switzerland is in constant negotiation with the EU and so will we be. I think we will have a trade deal in under five years but these relationships do not end.

The more serious matter which Ivan Rogers alludes to is that there are trade offs: you want more of this so you get less of that and the politicians have simply not been candid that compromise is necessary - is - not "may be".

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6 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

You can't prepare for no deal at the same time as you deny the consequences of no deal.  For example, how do you prepare for no deal in Northern Ireland?  Would you want to be the contractor building the customs infrastructure?

No deal is based on the precautionary principle and would, I would have thought been first on any agenda.

I quite agree that the backstop is no small matter; it is not a "confected" issue.. What is interesting is that I understand that the EU themselves are investigating this in the context of a prospective no deal

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2 minutes ago, crouch said:

What many remainers fail to recognise is that a substantial part of the population are not happy with the EU, they never have been and they are unhappy where it is headed. This is an issue of long standing and it is quite fundamental. It is never just being "lied to" or "mislead" it is faar more than that.

The post-war generations in which such emotions are most commonly found are not immortal, and their influence on our politics has passed its peak.

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

No deal is based on the precautionary principle and would, I would have thought been first on any agenda.

I quite agree that the backstop is no small matter; it is not a "confected" issue.. What is interesting is that I understand that the EU themselves are investigating this in the context of a prospective no deal

The EU's no deal plan is to geared up to forcing the UK into a deal while minimising the impact on them in the meantime.

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

No deal is based on the precautionary principle and would, I would have thought been first on any agenda.

I quite agree that the backstop is no small matter; it is not a "confected" issue.. What is interesting is that I understand that the EU themselves are investigating this in the context of a prospective no deal

No deal and the subsequent damage to the economy is not only remainers main concern.

How would you implement no deal Brexit?

 

Quote

 

No-deal Brexit will be 'commercial suicide', manufacturers tell MPs

Industry draws link between politicians’ talk of crashing out of EU and firms losing clients. Industry representatives were telling MPs that crashing out of the bloc was “economic vandalism”.

Seamus Nevin, the chief economist with Make UK which represents some of the country’s largest manufacturers, said: “There is a direct link between politicians talking up the prospect of no deal and British firms losing customers overseas and British people losing jobs.

“A no-deal Brexit would be nothing short of commercial suicide.”

Guardian

 

 

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6 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I find your level of delusion very hard going in the face of those videos outlined by Sir Ivan.

What the videos say is that the whole process so far has been a disaster - which it has. 

What they also say is that the politicians are not being straight with people and telling them that there are trade offs - which they are not.

What they also say is that getting to an acceptable position is going to be long and perhaps very hard - which it may well be.

All of this presents a litany of difficult and time consuming problems. But these do not mean that people suddenly if faced with this decide to cancel Brexit. There is a very deep and wide Euroscepticism in this country: many are not comfortable being in the EU and do not like where it's going and, at the end of the day will consider the trials and tribulations worth it.

That is not delusion: in polite circles it's called choice and I'm afraid is just as valid as yours.

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9 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The EU's no deal plan is to geared up to forcing the UK into a deal while minimising the impact on them in the meantime.

Very rational.

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13 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The post-war generations in which such emotions are most commonly found are not immortal, and their influence on our politics has passed its peak.

Indeed not but, as Ivan Rogers says, the EU has problems of its own and I believe it will be a different organisation long before Brexit has bedded down, and it might even change into something which the overwhelming majority in this country are happy with which is emphatically not the case at the moment.

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3 minutes ago, crouch said:

All of this presents a litany of difficult and time consuming problems. But these do not mean that people suddenly if faced with this decide to cancel Brexit. There is a very deep and wide Euroscepticism in this country: many are not comfortable being in the EU and do not like where it's going and, at the end of the day will consider the trials and tribulations worth it.

That is not delusion: in polite circles it's called choice and I'm afraid is just as valid as yours. 

If you don't like the EU and your motivation for leaving it is that you don't want to have to deal with it, then leaving it will not give you want you want.  It will only multiply the "trials and tribulations".

To add insult to injury, Euroscepticism is now indelibly linked with the political disaster of Brexit, so pro-Europeans will be in the ascendant for a very long time.

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29 minutes ago, smash said:

You obviously haven't invested too much in brexit but I suspect that a large section of the population haven't piled in behind it with such caution. When I watch things like Brexit party rallies or look at content on social media I get a very strong sense of the emotional and this leads me to conclude that many will end up acutely disappointed. I'm imagining people in the BBC Question Time audience in five years time saying things like "why is the Government sending a trade delegation to the EU?"

"When it ceased to exist two years ago" -  :lol:

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

Indeed not but, as Ivan Rogers says, the EU has problems of its own and I believe it will be a different organisation long before Brexit has bedded down, and it might even change into something which the overwhelming majority in this country are happy with which is emphatically not the case at the moment.

The overwhelming majority in Scotland are happy with it.  The majority in England are suffering from an identity crisis because of the slow collapse of the UK, but there's no evidence that in the long term, they want to be politically isolated from the rest of Europe.

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  • 224 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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