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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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12 hours ago, kzb said:

Peterborough by-election news:

  • Three men claim to have burnt 1000 Brexit Party votes (been referred to police)

Where did you hear about this? I just googled it and though there were a few websites I hadn't heard of which had this story, this caught my eye:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/06/07/letterspeterborough-means-brexit-party-wont-succeed-general/

 

Letters: Peterborough means the Brexit Party won’t succeed in a general election

 

SIR – Nigel Farage, being interviewed on the BBC yesterday morning after his party’s defeat at the Peterborough by-election, seemed oblivious to the fact that, while he was claiming that Brexit was the single biggest issue in voters’ minds at present, his party was still unable to win a by-election (where parties like his generally do better) in the centre of the Brexit heartland, at a time when the Tory party is in disarray.

Need we worry about the Brexit Party making major gains at a general election?

Adrian Thomas
Tadley, Hampshire

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On 10/06/2019 at 17:21, crouch said:

A bit longer:

And longer still:

Rogers is no friend to the Brexit argument but he is well worth worth watching; in fact I go further: I think if you want to really learn what Brexit may mean you have to watch him.

I like Ivan. You can tell he is no fan of Brexit. He is a loyal civil servant.... comes across as the sort of person who just gets on with the job at hand... quietly sweeping up the mess that politicians have made and saying 'there there, it will be all allright in the end', and helping to sort out the mess, because he is clever, he is good at fixing things that have been broken and there is bugger all else he can do.

I suspect in private he thinks Brexit is the most stupid thing we have ever done, especially so fo No Deal. 

What beggers belief is that you can interpret what he has said at all in a positive way. All I see is a person who is putting a slight positive sheen on it because 'it's his job'. Of course everything will be alright........ in the end. That seems like  poor rational to shaft many people in the short and medium term... for little prospect or certainty of a positive outcome.

He thinks we should have had an agreed trading relationship in mind by now...check.

He thinks we suffer from muddled thinking...delusional think...which continues still.... check

He thinks that we put down red lines without knowing the negative implications.....check

He thinks that we have been outplayed by the EU..... check

He thinks that Brexit is going to be a major economic supply side shock...check

He thinks WTO terms are not as good at FTA terms.....check

He thinks we will be negotiating with the EU 'forever more', essentially trying to get what we have now from the base of a 3rd country......check

He thinks No Deal is stupid and we will inevitably have to come back to face the same issue as we do today..... check.

I strongly suspect he thinks we should have agreed and put 'a trading relationship' to the people as part of the referendum.... clarity of thought......a destination in mind.... but he  comes across as being shy of being overtly critical of previous encombants and the referendum. Plus he seems the kind of chap that only deals with stuff he can have influence/control over.

So to summarise: No Deal is stupid. A compromise will not happen because former Brexiteers who would have accepted a compromise previously, now won't. What a total muddle.

Thanks for the links........ you can get back on with planning for Eurogeddon.  I think planning for  a Brexit style mini armageddon may be more appropriate.

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Crouchy and everyone...check out the following link from this chap called Sir Ivan Rogers :)...I really, really like Sir Ivan.

21 minutes in.... he talks about Leave deliberatly not having a destination in mind during the referendum as policy.. he says that Leave recognised that if they did have a Brexit destination (such as Flext) it would have been shot down and would have divided the Leave camp.... all in all I like him. He understands why Leave won and therefore I suspect that he thinks the referendum was framed incorrectly. The result.... a total muddle... 

I urge everyone to watch this... it's brilliant! I don't think anyone can articulare how stupid Brexit is as well as Sir Ivan can.

 

I have to thank you Crouchy... I think you are a nutter but thanks.

Edited by IMHAL

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15 hours ago, Dorkins said:

There are a lot of things the institutions of the UK do that I don't agree with, I am just one person and have no ability to change this. So it's regulations set in Westminster that I can't control vs regulations set in Brussels that I can't control, but which at least enable international trade which is good for the economy I live in.

You can at least vote for someone campaigning to do something about something you have an issue with if it comes from Westminster. One voice is still a voice, you're effectively saying "couldn't care less about democracy."

Quote

 

People seem to think that bringing EEA regulations back to London is going to make them better and give people less to complain about. I don't believe that for a second, I think people will just stop moaning about Brussels and complain about London instead. At least with the EEA we get the economic benefits of continent-wide free trade.

 

Not necessarily better, just a bit more accountable and in our own hands. I'd rather be free to make my own mistakes and accept the consequences than go through life being nannied, even if the latter gives more "objective" benefits.

The benefits of those economic benefits aren't terribly persuasive and just come across as an appeal to greed.

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2 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Crouchy and everyone...check out the following link from this chap called Sir Ivan Rogers :)...I really, really like Sir Ivan.

21 minutes in.... he talks about Leave deliberatly not having a destination in mind during the referendum as policy.. he says that Leave recognised that if they did have a Brexit destination (such as Flext) it would have been shot down and would have divided the Leave camp.... all in all I like him. He understands why Leave won and therefore I suspect that he thinks the referendum was framed incorrectly. The result.... a total muddle... 

I urge everyone to watch this... it's brilliant!

 

I have to thank you Crouchy... I think you are a nutter but thanks.

'Crouchy'. :lol:

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24 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

What beggers belief is that you can interpret what he has said at all in a positive way.

You seem not to have seen the last few minutes of the Newsnight interview. See from 6.49 minutes to the end. As I have said repeatedly Brexit is for the longer term and he is very optimistic about the long term.

As to putting spin on it because it's his job of course it isn't his job anymore and that is why he can be so frank.

Edited by crouch

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17 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I urge everyone to watch this... it's brilliant! I don't think anyone can articulare how stupid Brexit is as well as Sir Ivan can.

I'm pleased you enjoyed the video. 

But you haven't twigged it. The subject is what has gone wrong and no one would deny that; it's been an absolute debacle. But it's history.

When it comes to the substance he is much more nuanced. He reminds people of how fiendishly complex it all is and how this is under appreciated by the politicians. And of course he's correct but again he's criticising the actors not the play.

But, contrary to what you say, he doesn't say that Brexit is stupid; he wouldn't because he's a diplomat. Complex yes; time consuming yes; difficult yes. But stupid - that's something else. In the Newsnight interview he says, quite rightly that there will be difficulties - many - even tumult; but he is very optimistic abut the long term for the UK because I believe he thinks that we will indeed leave the EU.

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19 minutes ago, crouch said:

I'm pleased you enjoyed the video. 

But you haven't twigged it. The subject is what has gone wrong and no one would deny that; it's been an absolute debacle. But it's history.

When it comes to the substance he is much more nuanced. He reminds people of how fiendishly complex it all is and how this is under appreciated by the politicians. And of course he's correct but again he's criticising the actors not the play.

But, contrary to what you say, he doesn't say that Brexit is stupid; he wouldn't because he's a diplomat. Complex yes; time consuming yes; difficult yes. But stupid - that's something else. In the Newsnight interview he says, quite rightly that there will be difficulties - many - even tumult; but he is very optimistic abut the long term for the UK because I believe he thinks that we will indeed leave the EU.

I've watched a couple of those Ivan Rogers talks/interviews including the one you have mentioned where he says that Norway and Switzerland are in constant discussions with the EU.Do you think that the expectations that the public have been led toward about what Brexit will mean, how long it will take etc. accurately reflect what the reality will turn out to be?

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Quote

 

Boris Johnson says he is 'not aiming for no deal'

Boris Johnson has said he is "not aiming for a no-deal outcome" for Brexit at the launch of his campaign for the Tory leadership.

BBC

 

I thought he is following the ERG hard Brexit line.

Edited by rollover

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2 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

Ithought he is following the ERG hard Brexit line.

Boris is claiming that he can re-negotiate the WA.

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1 minute ago, smash said:

Boris is claiming that he can re-negotiate the WA.

Johnson is saying whatever he thinks his audience wants to hear and it changes from day to day.

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1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

Johnson is saying whatever he thinks his audience wants to hear and it changes from day to day.

That will be the "constructive ambiguity" strategy again then. It will allow him to do a merry dance of "what I actually said was..."

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19 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

Everything is pointing to what I suggested - labour today trying to prevent the possibility of no deal (even though no deal wouldn't happen anyway). Juncker stating again today that the withdrawal agreement is not up for negotiation (he knows UK wouldn't allow no deal). Johnson, in a few months time, will have to say "with a heavy heart, with much regret, we have to have another referendum". There is no other way.

Most likely is that 'no deal' will become 'managed exit' - a form of words.

The civil service has engaged with all non-EU countries for post-Brexit arrangements, that has been on-going and continues apace.

The EU has published its own contingency plans, many of which foresee temporary arrangements for at least six months while the EU and UK return to the negotiating table, as they must. 

I don't believe there will be another referendum. The Tories can not afford another year of business and parliamentary paralysis. They don't even want a new leader to face the commons before September. The risks of not delivering Brexit, and risking a GE, are too great. 

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28 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Johnson is saying whatever he thinks his audience wants to hear and it changes from day to day.

So he’s a politician then?

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7 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

So he’s a politician then?

A propagandist for the City of London first and foremost. And for people like the sinister and elusive Barclay Brothers who love the UK so much they file their taxes in Bermuda.

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2 hours ago, crouch said:

I'm pleased you enjoyed the video. 

But you haven't twigged it. The subject is what has gone wrong and no one would deny that; it's been an absolute debacle. But it's history.

When it comes to the substance he is much more nuanced. He reminds people of how fiendishly complex it all is and how this is under appreciated by the politicians. And of course he's correct but again he's criticising the actors not the play.

But, contrary to what you say, he doesn't say that Brexit is stupid; he wouldn't because he's a diplomat. Complex yes; time consuming yes; difficult yes. But stupid - that's something else. In the Newsnight interview he says, quite rightly that there will be difficulties - many - even tumult; but he is very optimistic abut the long term for the UK because I believe he thinks that we will indeed leave the EU.

If you watch the vid I posted he doesn't have to say it's stupid.... he says it so much better.... because he's a diplomat.

You are nice enough, but you are a real fruitcake, and pretty much wrong headed on every level.

Edited by IMHAL

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18 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That's a pretty standard redundancy package.  Why would anyone who is any ambitious/good, not take the money and stay in London.

As a result the provincial offices of these relocated firms are populated by second raters, often leading to outsourcing of much of the high level/creative work often back to London based firms.

Not up here it isn't.  When you look back at the 6-figure payouts some got in the 1970's and 80's, and these days we are very often on the statutory minimum. 

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

... but he is very optimistic abut the long term for the UK because I believe he thinks that we will indeed leave the EU.

If he's optimistic about the long term, it's not because he thinks we will leave the EU.

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16 hours ago, Dorkins said:

The guy claiming to have burnt these votes also said he was following a government directive to do it. File under fantasist.

I was sent that news by email.  I just thought I would post it to stir things up.

Whatever the truth of it, there is a petition about electoral fraud been launched.  When you have 10,000 postal votes anything can happen.

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

You seem not to have seen the last few minutes of the Newsnight interview. See from 6.49 minutes to the end. As I have said repeatedly Brexit is for the longer term and he is very optimistic about the long term.

As to putting spin on it because it's his job of course it isn't his job anymore and that is why he can be so frank.

Are you optimistic that it going to be possible to maintain the level of political consensus and discipline necessary to execute a successful Brexit over a 10 year period?  If you've listened to Ivan Rogers you will know that he is not optimistic about this, and believes that the risk of No Deal is much higher than most people think.

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48 minutes ago, smash said:

That will be the "constructive ambiguity" strategy again then. It will allow him to do a merry dance of "what I actually said was..."

According to Laura Kuenssberg he has already promised the job of Home Secretary to four people. 

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8 minutes ago, kzb said:

Not up here it isn't.  When you look back at the 6-figure payouts some got in the 1970's and 80's, and these days we are very often on the statutory minimum. 

Who are we?  Just about all public sector jobs have 1 month per year, most decent/professional level private sector jobs offer something similar. Non public sector minimum pay type jobs have always had poor redundancy terms.

The point is trying to move jobs out of London when it is clearly is the centre of gravity for that type of work is self defeating as the people you want to come don't have to and probably won't. 

The fact that only the public sector can afford to do this forced relocation is itself a bit of a giveaway. 

 

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19 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

If he's optimistic about the long term, it's not because he thinks we will leave the EU.

You may be right on this,

Quote

 

Remainer MPs have tabled a Commons motion designed to block No Deal. The source said: 'We are flexing our muscles to remind Boris and anyone else that they cannot do this.' 

Remainer MPs will mount an all-out bid to block No Deal today after Speaker John Bercow bent parliamentary rules to help them.

But his decision means MPs will be asked to vote on a Commons motion today which would give pro-Remain MPs control of the parliamentary timetable on June 25. 

If it is passed, a Bill will be brought forward within weeks that could make it illegal to suspend parliament to force a No Deal - a proposal mooted by some Tory hopefuls. Rebels say they could broaden the legislation to ban crashing out altogether.

Daily Mail

 

 

Edited by rollover

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51 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

A propagandist for the City of London first and foremost. And for people like the sinister and elusive Barclay Brothers who love the UK so much they file their taxes in Bermuda.

And looking pretty damn likely as the next prime minister of the UK!

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  • 224 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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