Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


Recommended Posts

47 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The Brexit Party manifesto will be a very thin pamphlet.

That might just be their trump card.
Too many commentators think most of the general public look into politics deeply, mull overissues over, vote thoughtfully.
Many just want complexity simplified and commitments to straightforward and prompt action.
A lot might vote for the BP in the next GE who would not bother normally.  It could be a terrible mistake to dismiss these people.  Yes, a lot may be a bit thick and unable to visualise the long term consequences of their actions.

However, they are many and they have the vote.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 145.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • GrizzlyDave

    9502

  • Confusion of VIs

    7725

  • thehowler

    5908

  • jonb2

    5801

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

Posted Images

2 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Personally I would prefer Labour to  listen to Stephen Kinnock and pursue CM2.0.

http://betterbrexit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Common-Market-2.0.pdf

CM2.0 sounds sensible to me but I know that's just my personal preference and for people more remainery or leavery than me it will sound terrible. I think committing to a single end state would be a tactical mistake for either of the big parties as the Tories will find out if they go full WTO. Life as a big party means internal compromise to keep the intra-party coalition working. Small parties can afford ideological purity, so if the Tories want to become a small party they know what to do.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

That might just be their trump card.
Too many commentators think most of the general public look into politics deeply, mull overissues over, vote thoughtfully.
Many just want complexity simplified and commitments to straightforward and prompt action.
A lot might vote for the BP in the next GE who would not bother normally.  It could be a terrible mistake to dismiss these people.  Yes, a lot may be a bit thick and unable to visualise the long term consequences of their actions.

However, they are many and they have the vote.

As the Labour Party learned to its cost, creative ambiguity isn't going to sell. The debate has become too polarised; the rhetoric too incendiary. There's no political capital to be had in occupying the middle ground. The Labour Party will be best served by reverting back to the Remain posture it took during the referendum but holding out the prospect of a People's Vote for the disgruntled Northern tribes.

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

That's not coming out from the Leave supporters on this thread.  Fanbois for the rightist ultras, mostly ! ERG/BP/DUP  to form the next government.

That's because we're not in GE mode. When we are then the BP will have to come out with policies and they will most likely be of the neoliberal stripe. ATM the BP is just a protest vote. I voted BP but would have very substantial qualms about voting BP in a GE.

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

The problem with that is the hard line Brexiteers will not be happy with anything other than a no deal Brexit and hard line Remainers will not be happy with leaving the EU in any shape or form and public opinion seems to be polarising towards one or the other.

This is all very entertaining, funnier than Mr Bean.

Sooner or later Brexiteers will come to the conclusion that the longer this goes on the less likely we are to leave the EU. If a new Tory PM can get some minor tweaks to the WA and more major ones to the PD that may be enough.

Corbyn wants to leave the EU and if the above comes to pass he might pivot towards a revised deal. Many of his MPs don't; they want to spin it out until they get a second ref which they think they will win and we will stay in but there are others who believe that the 2016 referendum needs to be respected and will be more amenable to compromise.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Daily reminder that the EU elections are not representative of the general publics feelings. Remaniacs are hugely motivated to vote, while many average leavers either couldn't be bothered to vote or didn't vote in elections that shouldn't be happening out of principal.

Despite this the Brexit part still won.

Boris needs to do a deal with Nigel, Brexit party do not contest Tory seats while Tory's leave non-tory seats wide open for Brexit party to mop up.

Coelition government with Boris as PM, Nigel as deputy PM.

Prepare fully for no deal and prepare to go through with it, once EU know we are serious they eventually approach us with a senisible deal that can gain a majority of Brexit Party and Tory MPs votes - pretty much a simple free trade arrangement.

Job done - Simple as.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, APerson said:

Daily reminder that the EU elections are not representative of the general publics feelings. Remaniacs are hugely motivated to vote, while many average leavers either couldn't be bothered to vote or didn't vote in elections that shouldn't be happening out of principal.

Despite this the Brexit part still won.

I'd like to believe that but I'd question whether it could be substantiated.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, copydude said:

That Labour 2nd Referendum In Full

Ref 2.jpg

You didn't water down the Leave vote enough. Needs at least another 3 options, like Switzerland, Norway and Canada. That should ensure Remain wins.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 27/05/2019 at 06:33, rollover said:

highYield, you have to finally admit "******** to brexit" works exceptionally well for Liberal Democrats.

Clearly. 

The first time that I ever voted, after reaching the age of majority in my country of birth, was for the Liberal Democrats. I've voted for them nearly all my life - when I didn't, I voted Green (back in those days, Green candidates were few & far between - difficult to vote for).

I'm very happy that my Brexit vote has bought untold millions to now vote for the 2 parties that I've voted for, for my entire life. The duopoly looks in peril. I only hope that these newbies won't end up as disappointed as I was. I'll never vote LibDem again, as I voted for them, for decades, based on their promise to hold a referendum on PR if they got into coalition. I agree with nearly all their other policies - when they come up with a manifesto that isn't as focussed on Brexit as that of the BP's. I will vote Green again after Brexit is resolved.

I'm super happy that my Brexit vote looks likely to have destroyed the Conservative & Unionist Party, a major advantage of Brexit that I've been expounding on here since I joined. I hope that the decline of this centuries old political party continues it's current trajectory. This has been due to the focussing of responsibility on our home political layers, caused by the mere potential removal of the EU political layers - and we haven't even left yet.

Circumstances that I'm not at liberty to divulge mean that the time has come for me to leave - HPC. I'd like to thank everyone for bearing with my posts, especially when I have been at my most irascible. I'd like to especially thank Jon B for his original ideas, CoVIs for sharing his knowledge, and especially Dave Beans & Dorkins for their superb research, insights and thoughtful posts.

All the best, and Good Luck, all. May Brexit bring you whatever you wish for.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

The problem with that is the hard line Brexiteers will not be happy with anything other than a no deal Brexit and hard line Remainers will not be happy with leaving the EU in any shape or form and public opinion seems to be polarising towards one or the other.

Will they?

Could it all be a master plan to get Corbyn to revoke Article 50?

What I think will happen.

1) Hard Brexiteer takes office as PM and we head towards a no deal.

2) Corbyn triggers vote of no confidence.

3) Government falls.

4) Queen asks Corbyn to form a Government.

5) Corbyn asks for an extension (second referundum) or revokes Article50.

6) Tories blame Corbyn for failing to deliver Brexit.

 

 

Edited by what
Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Why would Farage accept playing second fiddle when he can win power himself?

If Tory's and BXP run ageinst each other they split the vote. They would need to do a deal in a GE to stand a chance at either of them winning.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, highYield said:

Clearly. 

The first time that I ever voted, after reaching the age of majority in my country of birth, was for the Liberal Democrats. I've voted for them nearly all my life - when I didn't, I voted Green (back in those days, Green candidates were few & far between - difficult to vote for).

I'm very happy that my Brexit vote has bought untold millions to now vote for the 2 parties that I've voted for, for my entire life. The duopoly looks in peril. I only hope that these newbies won't end up as disappointed as I was. I'll never vote LibDem again, as I voted for them, for decades, based on their promise to hold a referendum on PR if they got into coalition. I agree with nearly all their other policies - when they come up with a manifesto that isn't as focussed on Brexit as that of the BP's. I will vote Green again after Brexit is resolved.

I'm super happy that my Brexit vote looks likely to have destroyed the Conservative & Unionist Party, a major advantage of Brexit that I've been expounding on here since I joined. I hope that the decline of this centuries old political party continues it's current trajectory. This has been due to the focussing of responsibility on our home political layers, caused by the mere potential removal of the EU political layers - and we haven't even left yet.

Circumstances that I'm not at liberty to divulge mean that the time has come for me to leave - HPC. I'd like to thank everyone for bearing with my posts, especially when I have been at my most irascible. I'd like to especially thank Jon B for his original ideas, CoVIs for sharing his knowledge, and especially Dave Beans & Dorkins for their superb research, insights and thoughtful posts.

All the best, and Good Luck, all. May Brexit bring you whatever you wish for.

 

That’s a shame HY.  We need another sensible head in here! 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, APerson said:

Daily reminder that the EU elections are not representative of the general publics feelings. Remaniacs are hugely motivated to vote, while many average leavers either couldn't be bothered to vote or didn't vote in elections that shouldn't be happening out of principal.

You've given a very one-sided version of that logic (presumably because you personally want to leave) but it cuts both ways: Hard WTOers are hugely motivated to vote, while many average remainers couldn't be bothered to vote. My partner would have fallen into that latter category had I not nudged her into voting as I think it is a civic duty and we both have postal votes so it's not exactly a big effort.

The EU election seems to be saying that there are at least 5 million hard remainers and 5 million hard WTOers. What the rest of the country is thinking is hard to say.

Edited by Dorkins
Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Why would Farage accept playing second fiddle when he can win power himself?

Also not a great look for the Brexit Party: "The establishment parties want to stop Brexit, vote for us to kick the establishment out and change politics forever!" *5 seconds later* "We regret to announce that the Brexit Party has now merged with the Tories"

A Tory-BP pact would create a new niche for an uncontaminated Brexit Party to pop up.

Edited by Dorkins
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Also not a great look for the Brexit Party: "The establishment parties want to stop Brexit, vote for us to change politics!" *5 seconds later* "We regret to announce that the Brexit Party has now merged with the Tories"

A Tory-BP pact would create a new niche for an uncontaminated Brexit Party to pop up.

A pact with the Tories would also stop them winning in the Labour heartlands they are targetting.  The Brexit Party is aiming to destroy the Tories completely.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if anyone has considered this, but it seems to me that the Irish border and good Friday agreement seem to be a sticking point that is making a lot of division.

Here is a radical idea, and I've no idea if it would work, hand northern Ireland back to the Irish. Then ask them just to get along. Anyone got any ideas why it wouldn't work?

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, smash said:

Peterborough By Election odds at William Hill

Brexit Party 1/4

Lab 3/1

LD 20/1

Con 25/1

Galloway 100/1

Green 100/1

I think the LDs have a much better chance than the punters think.

In the Euro elections, nearly all the pollsters over estimated Labour's share of the vote and under estimated the LDs.

Moreover, I'm not convinced about the appeal of Labour's 2nd Referendum offer, as it implies another year extension. I do think people want this business done and dusted, either way. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

Not sure if anyone has considered this, but it seems to me that the Irish border and good Friday agreement seem to be a sticking point that is making a lot of division.

Here is a radical idea, and I've no idea if it would work, hand northern Ireland back to the Irish. Then ask them just to get along. Anyone got any ideas why it wouldn't work?

'Conservative and Unionist Party'.

But yes - also Scotland going independent is reasonably inevitable if England and Wales 'Br'exits.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, highYield said:

Clearly. 

The first time that I ever voted, after reaching the age of majority in my country of birth, was for the Liberal Democrats. I've voted for them nearly all my life - when I didn't, I voted Green (back in those days, Green candidates were few & far between - difficult to vote for).

I'm very happy that my Brexit vote has bought untold millions to now vote for the 2 parties that I've voted for, for my entire life. The duopoly looks in peril. I only hope that these newbies won't end up as disappointed as I was. I'll never vote LibDem again, as I voted for them, for decades, based on their promise to hold a referendum on PR if they got into coalition. I agree with nearly all their other policies - when they come up with a manifesto that isn't as focussed on Brexit as that of the BP's. I will vote Green again after Brexit is resolved.

I'm super happy that my Brexit vote looks likely to have destroyed the Conservative & Unionist Party, a major advantage of Brexit that I've been expounding on here since I joined. I hope that the decline of this centuries old political party continues it's current trajectory. This has been due to the focussing of responsibility on our home political layers, caused by the mere potential removal of the EU political layers - and we haven't even left yet.

Circumstances that I'm not at liberty to divulge mean that the time has come for me to leave - HPC. I'd like to thank everyone for bearing with my posts, especially when I have been at my most irascible. I'd like to especially thank Jon B for his original ideas, CoVIs for sharing his knowledge, and especially Dave Beans & Dorkins for their superb research, insights and thoughtful posts.

All the best, and Good Luck, all. May Brexit bring you whatever you wish for.

 

Thats a shame HY - keep the good tunes rolling and best of luck.

Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

Here is a radical idea, and I've no idea if it would work, hand northern Ireland back to the Irish. Then ask them just to get along. Anyone got any ideas why it wouldn't work?

Civil War syndrome? It's like family feuds, where members don't speak to each other for the rest of their lives. With ingrained religious differences on top. Plus the Irish have long memories.

Years ago I had a Christmas job at Hamley's toyshop. At break time, the Irish lads would sit around talking about the coffin ships, Parnell and the Phoenix Park murders as if they were yesterday.

There have been many efforts to re-unite North and South Cyprus - you can wander across the street from one to the other - but people just don't.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, zugzwang said:

The debate has become so polarised - sectarian even - that there's really no centre ground to fight over. Corbs can legitimately argue that he honoured the referendum result by putting a Soft Brexit before the public in these elections, only to have it thrown back in his face. Similarly, on the Tory side the prospect of anyone but a Farage clone taking May's place must be lower than a grasshopper's knee. The Labour Party has really no alternative but to adopt an explcitly Remain posture now, with the sop of a 2nd Ref to Leave voters.

I think this is correct. The dilemma is there is no majority for a compromise. Say it's a three thirds split (ultra leave | middle| ultra remain) that means 66.66% of the ultras against a 33.33% middle.

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, longgone said:

can it get anymore low from the tories

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7075947/Michael-Gove-offer-FREE-British-nationality-three-million-EU-nationals.html

lets buy some more pro remain  HTB did not work  

Talking of lows

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/23/2m-eu-citizens-ex-pats-overseas-could-have-denied-vote-euro/

What a travesty. It's either deliberate or just more incompetence. Whether you're a leaver or remainer - surely you can see we are getting further up shit creek as a nation?

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, highYield said:

Clearly. 

The first time that I ever voted, after reaching the age of majority in my country of birth, was for the Liberal Democrats. I've voted for them nearly all my life - when I didn't, I voted Green (back in those days, Green candidates were few & far between - difficult to vote for).

I'm very happy that my Brexit vote has bought untold millions to now vote for the 2 parties that I've voted for, for my entire life. The duopoly looks in peril. I only hope that these newbies won't end up as disappointed as I was. I'll never vote LibDem again, as I voted for them, for decades, based on their promise to hold a referendum on PR if they got into coalition. I agree with nearly all their other policies - when they come up with a manifesto that isn't as focussed on Brexit as that of the BP's. I will vote Green again after Brexit is resolved.

I'm super happy that my Brexit vote looks likely to have destroyed the Conservative & Unionist Party, a major advantage of Brexit that I've been expounding on here since I joined. I hope that the decline of this centuries old political party continues it's current trajectory. This has been due to the focussing of responsibility on our home political layers, caused by the mere potential removal of the EU political layers - and we haven't even left yet.

Circumstances that I'm not at liberty to divulge mean that the time has come for me to leave - HPC. I'd like to thank everyone for bearing with my posts, especially when I have been at my most irascible. I'd like to especially thank Jon B for his original ideas, CoVIs for sharing his knowledge, and especially Dave Beans & Dorkins for their superb research, insights and thoughtful posts.

All the best, and Good Luck, all. May Brexit bring you whatever you wish for.

 

 

May the blessing of light be on you, light without and light within.

May the blessed sunlight shine on you like a great peat fire, so that stranger and friend may come and warm himself at it.

And may light shine out of the two eyes of you, like a candle set in the window of a house, bidding the wanderer come in out of the storm. And may the blessing of the rain be on you,

May it beat upon your Spirit and wash it fair and clean, and leave there a shining pool where the blue of Heaven shines, and sometimes a star.

And may the blessing of the earth be on you, soft under your feet as you pass along the roads, soft under you as you lie out on it, tired at the end of day;

and may it rest easy over you when, at last, you lie out under it.

May it rest so lightly over you that your soul may be out from under it quickly; up and off and on its way to God.

And now may the Lord bless you, and bless you kindly.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.