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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
6 minutes ago, Spindler said:

Not with the Pound they won;t ?

 

And i seem to recall joining the EU was not a shoe in ...and that according to the EU

F**k the Bank of England.

Line one, paragraph one of the Scots Nats' next manifesto.

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HOLA443
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HOLA444
5 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Corbyn still firmly on the fence.

He won't say if he will back a 2nd referendum until he is PM :rolleyes:.

That is not good enough.....how can anyone just vote for a brand name without knowing what will be getting?;)

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HOLA445
5 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Corbyn still firmly on the fence.

He won't say if he will back a 2nd referendum until he is PM :rolleyes:.

That is good for Remainers. The last think they want is to split their votes between Lab and LD/Green/CUK/SMP/Plaid in the next GE.

I hope that pro-Remain parties will form a pact and get a majority with 40% share of votes.  

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HOLA446
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HOLA447
4 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

F**k the Bank of England.

Line one, paragraph one of the Scots Nats' next manifesto.

well i dont disagree with that sentence Zugzwang and I'll applaud if they take this stance....

But their rap sheet has been they are keeping the pound.....as someone else pointed out we can't actually stop them using the pound or the USD or shells for that matter....what they can't do is influence monetary policy or print money because in effect they using someone elses currency.....they have acted like they can leave keep the pound and nothing currency wise will change......WRONG

Even Carney(who most of us revile) stuck 2 fingers up to them and said they were talking nonsense.....and let's face it he is the master of talking nonsense.....so he knows nonsense when he hears it

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HOLA448
11 minutes ago, slawek said:

Con 50% Remain

Lab 75% Remain

That splits 21%  Lab/Con votes 15% Remain, 6% Leave,  9% lead for Remain

In total across all parties 14% lead for Remain,  even more than my previous estimate.

Based on yougov poll

image.png.eb5e87b9d18050c24ad9a27b66caab4c.png

 

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c6muz9lchd/TheTimes_190521_EPVI_w.pdf

I’m not going to sweat over those numbers but surely 18/6 is 33% buddy?

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HOLA449
29 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Are you under the impression that leavers will be denied a vote in a 2nd referendum?

I really can't see the problem, hold a 2nd referendum and find out what the people want now, in 2019.

Or do you think that the result of a 2nd referendum would be to remain and are trying to drag a remain majority out of the EU screaming and kicking, how can that be democratic?

As I've pointed out numerous times that argument only works if you endorse continually holding referendums every few years (and you can bet your last penny that Leave winning again wouldn't shut up Remainers calling for a third), which is impractical, and any democratic benefits pall into insignificance against the massive affront to democracy that not implementing the clear results of the last one would be.

Should we have a new general election every time there's an argument about the government?

Edited by Riedquat
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HOLA4410
1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Yup, Tories choosing to interpret the result as a reaction to their failure to deliver Brexit, conveniently ignoring the rise of the LD vote.

I agree we are a step closer to remaining in the EU and, from his demeanour this morning, Farage knows it too. All he has left is bluster, but he does bluster well..

They are ignoring the country and talking to the voters they lost. Plus policy wise they are boxed in - reality will have to wait.

The thing is, yesterday unlikely to be replicated in a GE and it looks like if anything no deal would be worse than no Brexit for them.

The needle has swung back a bit toward Remain but still more likely we Leave: it looks like it has to be a deal with the EU at all costs for the Tories or they are seriously, seriously fecked.

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HOLA4411
3 minutes ago, slawek said:

That is good for Remainers. The last think they want is to split their votes between Lab and LD/Green/CUK/SMP/Plaid in the next GE.

I hope that pro-Remain parties will form a pact and get a majority with 40% share of votes.  

But a GE will be primarily about domestic policies: housing, healthcare, transport, policing, education etc. not the details of our trading relationship with the EU.

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HOLA4412
4 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

As I've pointed out numerous times that argument only works if you endorse continually holding referendums every few years (and you can bet your last penny that Leave winning again wouldn't shut up Remainers calling for a third), which is impractical, and any democratic benefits pall into insignificance against the massive affront to democracy that not implementing the clear results of the last one would be.

I think we should hold as many referendums as are necessary.

Edited by Bruce Banner
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HOLA4413
15 minutes ago, winkie said:

That is not good enough.....how can anyone just vote for a brand name without knowing what will be getting?;)

Lol Brexit ? the Brexit Party ?

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HOLA4414
21 minutes ago, pig said:

Leave actually got something of a bloody nose from the electorate yesterday, but has improved an undemocratic grip on power (via Tory meltdown)  to drag the UK kicking and screaming out of the EU with no deal. 

Is that what you want ?

I agree. Nigel’s mistake was treating it as a proxy referendum despite not wanting one.

No deal and Brexit will come off the table now, and I suspect we’ll shortly see Corbyn backing a second referendum.

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HOLA4415
1 hour ago, what said:
 

Silly question, but can`t a hardline Brexit PM come in and just prevent Parliament from sitting till October 31st?

The Commons votes on when to hold a recess, the PM doesn't just announce that Parliament is closed.

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HOLA4416
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HOLA4417
6 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I’m not going to sweat over those numbers but surely 18/6 is 33% buddy?

Lab voters: 18% of all people who voted Remain + 6% of all people who voted Leave

Lab Remainers as % of all Lab voters : 18% / (18% + 6%) = 75% since the numbers of Leavers and Remainers are roughly the same

Come on. You are an engineer.

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HOLA4418

 

4 hours ago, Spindler said:

no it's not a one shot trick but as what was voted for never got implemented now you want to thwart that vote with another vote.....so what do we do when remain then wins....have another go in 3 years....or will you make us wait another4 or 5 decades ?

What people voted for could not be delivered, and what can be delivered is not wanted by the majority of the electorate.

 

4 hours ago, MinistryMan said:

This entire result just adds to the confusion for me. A lot of people calling a Remain win...and I see the logic for that by adding up party votes and applying an assumption for Con / Lab division over votes. But from my most basic of straw polls, which turn out to be broadly accurate, such as when I posted a quick poll of our work staff a few weeks ago showing a BP win and decimation of Con & Lab, show nearly all my family and a host of my work colleagues who are Brexiteers of one sort or another - some want a deal, some want no deal, didn’t even vote on Thursday in protest and said they would only vote at a general election. WTF!!! If we apply that approach to voting across the UK then god knows what the result actually might be. How are we ever going to get a true reflection of what people want in this country if they don’t bother to turn out, but are all willing to talk endlessly about it down the pub!! Maybe all pubs should become polling stations!!

My dad, brother, sis and bro in law, the guy next door, at least 20 people at an engagement party yesterday, maybe 40 odd people at an Ibiza reunion party Saturday (heavy weekend!) and far more than half the people I spoke to in work for a poll I did (that gave a BP win) haven’t even voted in this euro election but apparently nearly all want some type of Brexit! ?

It was having a vote for some sort of Brexit that caused the current impasse.

Does a majority of the country want any specific form of Brexit?

Possibly bur probably not and the only way to find out is to define one and put it to the electorate.

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HOLA4419
34 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Corbyn still firmly on the fence.

He won't say if he will back a 2nd referendum until he is PM :rolleyes:.

Corbyn's strategy of staying out of the Tory civil war by keeping quiet has worked well so far, the Tories are now 3rd in Westminster opinion polls and about to pick their 3rd leader in two years who themselves will very likely be gone in under a year.

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HOLA4420
11 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

But a GE will be primarily about domestic policies: housing, healthcare, transport, policing, education etc. not the details of our trading relationship with the EU.

I think GE will be dominated by Brexit. It would be difficult for Labour to divert attention to non-Brexit matters again.  Many Remainers feels betrayed by JC, fool me once, fool me twice ... The best option for Lab would be to become wholeheartedly a Remain party, close this chapter, and concentrate on social policies.   

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HOLA4421
3 hours ago, Spindler said:

then we leave on WTO then....we voted to leave that's it...and as for agreements that are brexit in name only....give me WTO....any agreement where for example the EU can dictate our trade deals...forget it.....trap us in FoM etc...we voted to leave to make our own rules not be tied to theirs

 

Does reality ever intrude on your WTO fantasy. 

We need the EU's agreement to leave on WTO terms (if you don't know why, you didn't/still don't know what you voted for). The EU's price for agreeing will be all the bits of the WA they are interested in.  

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HOLA4422
2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

I very much doubt it, but the fact that no deal is now perceived as back on the table makes it less likely, in my opinion.

i have no opinion on it anymore. seems the public opinion is ignored anyway. 

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HOLA4423
3 hours ago, Si1 said:

No, because WTO already is a trade agreement.

It isn't it's a framework for building agreements. 

Without agreements with our major trading partners it is unworkable.

3 hours ago, Spindler said:

I think the reason Corbyn has avoided plumping for Referendum 2 is he understands it will solve nothing...there will be half the country who feel cheated......sitting on the fence has done him no favours....will he now plump for it and steal the voter base back from lib dems and greens ?

Leaving the tories to either go the same route or become the party of hard brexit.....they are snookered

Looks like he has just plumped for a referendum.

Should have been a no brainer long ago.

3 hours ago, Si1 said:

She lost the negotiations the moment she ruled out no deal. She has no life experience. I wouldn't trust her to negotiate over a second hand car. Reports from both British and European negotiating teams say as much.

The only problem "no deal" would have given the EU is keeping a straight face while we banged on about it.

  

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HOLA4424
29 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I think we should hold as many referendums as are necessary.

Till we get remain you mean .. sounds logical and democratic.. the only message remainers understand will be the clunking fist of brexit voters voting ... I wonder why no one is painting a picture of how many seats would be won by the different parties if the same pattern were repeated in a GE (adjusting for removing EU citizen votes if possible )

Edited by moneyfornothing
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HOLA4425
18 minutes ago, slawek said:

I think GE will be dominated by Brexit. It would be difficult for Labour to divert attention to non-Brexit matters again.  Many Remainers feels betrayed by JC, fool me once, fool me twice ... The best option for Lab would be to become wholeheartedly a Remain party, close this chapter, and concentrate on social policies.   

I think if JCs position was a hard brexit he would win the next election 

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