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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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On ‎16‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 14:37, crouch said:

Actually I think you're wrong here, insofar as the subject of the referendum is concerned. It would ostensibly be on the basis of a choice between staying and leaving and the choice would be framed as an economic one.

But the campaign and the vote would be about something else. It would be about trust and betrayal. About a system where both government and Parliament are incompetent and full of representatives who pay little regard to what ordinary people want or think.

It would be about a media and big business who have their own agenda and who cannot be trusted and who have spent three years on Project Fear.

It will be about an EU that has not dealt evenhandedly with the UK and tried to punish the miscreant.

In other words the campaign will be about politics not economics. And how will Team  Remain counter what would be a torrent in this vein? With great difficulty.

Spot on, Crouch! :)

Can you recall a time when leadership polling was as dire as this?

Favourability%20tracker%20May%202019-01.

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14 minutes ago, crouch said:

It cannot move us to somewhere where we already are. Nationalism is with every nation state.

The "fear of the other" has given 10th place in a most tolerant countries survey, ahead of most large members of the EU.

 https://www.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-most-tolerant-progressive-and-eco-friendly-countries-2017-1?r=US&IR=T#2-finland-finland-may-not-call-itself-a-scandinavian-nation-but-it-certainly-keeps-up-with-its-northern-european-neighbours-in-second-place-it-topped-the-2016-social-progress-index-scoring-highly-on-health-and-safety-24

Bunkum.

I do not agree with that statement. You are dodging the issue and in so doing you are trying to normalise it. 

It is possible to become more nationalistic, as an example... lets go to the extreme (not where we are ATM I might add).

Ultranationalism is an "extreme nationalism that promotes the interest of one state or people above all others", or simply "extreme devotion to one's own nation". Ultranationalism combined with the notion of national rebirth is a key foundation of fascism.

 

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13 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Just because I’m not interested in NI politics - yawn - doesn’t mean I don’t care.

WRT Hungry - Mia culpa - I don’t care about their politics.

Do you care about German politics?

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Banks fined €1bn by EU for currency rigging

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48292946

Four banks in the "Banana Split" cartel - Barclays, RBS, Citigroup and JP Morgan - were fined €811m in all.

Three banks in the "Essex Express" cartel - Barclays and RBS again, plus MUFG - were fined €258m.

We certainly don't want the EU imposing it's authority over our banks now do we..... nasty little meddling EUro people that they are. How else will our poor bankers get to earn an honest crust...

Edited by IMHAL

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3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I said about 75% of successful degree educated people. Meaning high income graduates (such as MPs), so once again you ignore the point and create a strawman.

I don't know why I bother as we already know data analysis is a subject that is beyond you, but anyway. 

Being on a higher (top third) income is, however, a predictor of voting Remain, with voters in that category being eight percentage points less likely to have backed Brexit, keeping the other variables constant.

So being a graduate gives you a 68% chance of having voted Remain, being a top third income (as MP's are) adds 8% to that making 76%, so "about 75%". 

P.S. Far be it from me to further query a master of data analysis such as yourself, but please would you further explain your 'just add 8%' methodology of combining 2 different data series (higher-paid & degree-educated). Wouldn't it make more sense to try and average the two, rather than trying to add a difference within the higher-paid series ('8% more likely' - presumably only 8% more likely to vote remain than than the bottom 2/3rds) to the separate degree-educated series*?

* It's unclear from your new CAPX source where the 68% comes from - that number doesn't appear in your 2nd link?

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1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

That is a cop out response. The truth is a vote for Brexit is a vote to move us more towards nationalism. The fear of 'the other *'  will have taken poll position in preference to all else.. 

* substitute in the EU, foreigners, people who don't agree with Brexit.... as necessary...

I do agree with your first statement... our politicians have failed the people..... the banks and their cronies, party politics and the elite took preference to the people.... but more of the same with knobs on is not the way to fight it. 

You hear those narratives all the time on here but the causes still need to be understood and addressed:

Quote

… Furthermore, our findings suggest that national orientations began to shape support for the EU long before the crises unfolded in 2007. In fact, the temporal patterns suggest that the onset of political integration in the early 1990s stimulated the salience of national identities to the public. Several notable EU-related controversies arose in the late 1990s and early 2000s – the introduction of the euro, the Eastern Enlargement, and the EU constitution —and no doubt fortified the connection between nationalism and EU attitudes long before discussions about national debt, austerity, and migration consumed Europe. The growing magnitude of coefficients in Figure 1 and the visible bumps around 1999 and 2004 clearly support such an interpretation...

… Moreover, because the relationship between national identity and EU attitudes has become stronger for individuals with moderate as well as extreme ideological orientations, criticisms of the EU articulated by extreme right and left parties may resonate increasingly with citizens in the ideological centre. This no doubt will stimulate resistance to Macron’s plan to further integrate Europe. Perhaps the greatest danger for the current malaise of the EU is that the rise in salience of national identity affords EU-critical parties with growing opportunities to attract voters with moderate ideological orientations.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2019/05/07/european-citizens-increasingly-turn-to-nationalist-orientations-when-developing-positions-on-the-eu/

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Are we nearly there yet, or is it the road nowhere...fourth time lucky?.......I should be so lucky.....maybe we will, maybe we won't......;)

 

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33 minutes ago, highYield said:

"If you look at Ashcroft's polling data among successful degree educated people about 75% voted Remain" 

From this link on your site: https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/02/how-the-uk-voted-on-brexit-and-why-a-refresher/ it's only 57% for degree educated people?

Now that you have modified your original claim from 'successful' to 'higher earning' it does better resemble the series of Ashcroft data that you were citing for your number. I'm wondering where the 75% is in your supposed source?

I haven't modified anything, you just presumed what I meant by successful. Successful and degree educated are two different things.  

I cannot find the original source, it is somewhere in the thread but a quick search did not uncover it, which is why I said DYOR is you are interested and used +80k as its definition of successful.

My point was that given that they qualify as successful and (mostly)as educated you would expect about 75% of MP's to be Remain voters if they reflected the public at large.  

Did you have a point, apart from wanting to quibble about numbers that are both approximations.  

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Just what we need to usher in the new world of American toadying: PM Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson

Tagline: You've got to be BoJoking 

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1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Me.

Why?

One piddly little aircraft carrier is not much of a financial burden on the EU and if it were to become a political or military threat, either Putin or Trump would sink it, so no problem, let them have their toy :D.

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34 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I do not agree with that statement. You are dodging the issue and in so doing you are trying to normalise it. 

Unfortunately you really can't avoid agreeing with it. Nationalism is based on culture, history, language and a shared experience. All nation states are nationalistic to some degree; nationalism is the glue that binds.

But we are not yet at the point of ultranationalism as you say so, if we're just at the point of common or garden nationalism - which is where I believe we are - just what is your point?

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12 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I haven't modified anything, you just presumed what I meant by successful. Successful and degree educated are two different things.  

I cannot find the original source, it is somewhere in the thread but a quick search did not uncover it, which is why I said DYOR is you are interested and used +80k as its definition of successful.

My point was that given that they qualify as successful and (mostly)as educated you would expect about 75% of MP's to be Remain voters if they reflected the public at large.  

Did you have a point, apart from wanting to quibble about numbers that are both approximations.  

Mandela was very successful, but not a high earner. The two different things, 'successful' & 'high earning' are not synonymous. Your "just add 8% from one t'other" methodology above is a laughable attempt at data analysis.

My point was that claiming "If you look at Ashcroft's polling data among successful degree educated people about 75% voted Remain" seemed wrong. Now we know that it was.

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50 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

… and guns?  :)

I see CH admin are covering their bases (15/05/19):

https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/media-releases.msg-id-75040.html

Who knows, perhaps the EEA/EFTA (Flexcit) will prevail? 

I would be happy with that outcome but think that boat has sailed. As although it would have been an acceptable outcome if May had set us on that path after the referendum, her unsuccessful  pandering to the right wing of her party has fermented such division that it would now be seen as a betrayal by most Tory voters.

I think it will now boil down to a choice between revoking A50 and the oxymoronic "no deal" clean Brexit.       

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2 minutes ago, highYield said:

Mandela was very successful, but not a high earner. The two different things, 'successful' & 'high earning' are not synonymous. Your "just add 8% from one t'other" methodology above is a laughable attempt at data analysis.

My point was that claiming "If you look at Ashcroft's polling data among successful degree educated people about 75% voted Remain" seemed wrong. Now we know that it was.

You still know nothing because you are too lazy to look and are still unable to understand anything to do with data analysis  try reading it again very slooowly and you might understand why adding the figure was a valid approximation.    

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31 minutes ago, crouch said:

Unfortunately you really can't avoid agreeing with it. Nationalism is based on culture, history, language and a shared experience. All nation states are nationalistic to some degree; nationalism is the glue that binds.

But we are not yet at the point of ultranationalism as you say so, if we're just at the point of common or garden nationalism - which is where I believe we are - just what is your point?

It is possible to move to a more nationalistic position/outlook..... it is something you refuted. I am not saying that nationalism is not ever present to some degree.

Edited by IMHAL

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10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You still know nothing because you are too lazy to look and are still unable to understand anything to do with data analysis  try reading it again very slooowly and you might understand why adding the figure was a valid approximation.    

Adding a (small 8%) difference from in-between the high-earning series | to | an unrelated degree-educated series makes no sense without any attempt at trying to find some correlation between the two different series beforehand - which would then indicate how the 2 figures might be combined.

You can't just take an (unreferenced, made up?) percentage of degree-earner remainers, then stick 8% of a different thing on top.

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1 hour ago, PeanutButter said:

Just what we need to usher in the new world of American toadying: PM Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson

Tagline: You've got to be BoJoking 

Yeah, we should just tell the USA to feck off. But Johnson is bound to be choosing his leather trousers and checking bend-over-big-desk poses in his full length mirror right now.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/us-military-disputes-british-generals-doubts-over-iranian-threat-to-us-38113738.html

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1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

It is possible to move to a more nationalistic position/outlook..... it is something you refuted. I am not saying that nationalism is not ever present to some degree.

Quite.

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1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Why?

One piddly little aircraft carrier is not much of a financial burden on the EU and if it were to become a political or military threat, either Putin or Trump would sink it, so no problem, let them have their toy :D.

Nations have carriers.

Who orders an aircraft carrier?

Macron sent the CDG to Syria.

Putin sent the Admiral Kuznetsov to Syria.

Trump has sent the Abraham Lincolm to the Persian Gulf.

-

So who would send the EU carrier to war?

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15 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

So for example when Churchill was banging on about German politics in the 30s, you'd have said, "Don't care?"

That’s a ridiculous question.

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2 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

That’s a ridiculous question.

It really isn't.  If you mean what you say about wanting a good life for your children and grandchildren, you can't act as if Britain exists in splendid isolation.  We have never in our history been detached from the politics of our continent and it's deluded to think that we could ever be.

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16 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

It really isn't.  If you mean what you say about wanting a good life for your children and grandchildren, you can't act as if Britain exists in splendid isolation.  We have never in our history been detached from the politics of our continent and it's deluded to think that we could ever be.

Why some villages have never liked or got on with the village next door, even Scotland and Wales part of our union we sometimes can not see eye to eye.....maybe it is in our culture not to like what we don't know, do not understand or feel are a threat...... can't get on with our neighbours, how do we expect to get on with the rest of the world.....no man is an island.....;)

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  • 243 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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