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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I have suggested that a founding members departure could cause sufficient shock waves for others to follow leading to total collapse.

What would cause Italy to leave? A profound financial crash of the banking system, individual nations no longer supporting the stability pact; profound crisis in the EU council, etc.

Which part of that incentivises Italy to impose economic sanctions on itself by leaving the single market and customs union?

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16 minutes ago, pig said:

The problem is, lusting after the break down of the EU on the one hand and getting hysterical over a fecking EU aircraft carrier on the other only makes sense if you are Putin.

I don’t want the EU to break down.

I’m not hysterical about an EU aircraft carrier, of which remainers are in complete denial over.

I am however ultra cautious about a USofE; of which I want no part.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

Which part of that incentivises Italy to impose economic sanctions on itself by leaving the single market and customs union?

How can they leave something which no longer exists?

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5 minutes ago, crouch said:

Did I say that? Did I even discuss dynamics? If the weaker vessels leave the Euro then that is a huge blow for the whole project not just the EZ. Of course they will want to trade but the EU is more than that. 

One of the major decisions those weaker countries would have to take is redenomination. If they redenominate then that will cause huge problems for the rest of the EZ. If they don't that will cause huge problems for them.

I think you're being overly dramatic about setting up new currencies. The Czech Republic and Slovakia split their currency without a fuss after Czechoslovakia dissolved. The Republic of Ireland left sterling a few years after independence and it didn't cause financial markets to run around with their hair on fire.

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2 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

I've explained why I don't think it would lead to the collapse of the EU: because it is held together organically, not by force, and there would be no incentive for anyone to combine an exit from the Eurozone with an exit from the single market or customs union.

It is held together by treaty and contract - there's no "organic" about it.

Whether it remains in the SM or CU or indeed in the EU depends upon circumstances. If forced to redenominate debts it may not be allowed to stay.

7 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

As for the survival of the Eurozone, you seem to pin a lot on the supposed impossibility of fiscal transfers even in the face of the political will to do it, but that doesn't make sense, as there's nothing to stop a new treaty being agreed, and there have already been several examples of successful crisis resolution measures.  Greece is a unique example because it wasn't simply a crisis induced by a recession but something that revealed much deeper issues.

Anything is possible. Germany is already owed Euros`1 tn under the Target 2 system which has been described as essentially uncollectible. I'm sure they'd be delighted to have that figure increased substantially. Possible yes. Likely no.

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

It is held together by treaty and contract - there's no "organic" about it.

Businesses with cross-border operations don't rely on common regulations only because governments force them to.  There is a huge amount of inertia behind the existing integrated model, precisely because it is more efficient.  It would require massive government intervention to change that.

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3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

I think you're being overly dramatic about setting up new currencies. The Czech Republic and Slovakia split their currency without a fuss after Czechoslovakia dissolved. The Republic of Ireland left sterling a few years after independence and it didn't cause financial markets to run around with their hair on fire.

And the size of the economies of these countries?

I am talking about a generalised recession/ financial collapse which affects the whole EZ.

I think you're being underly dramatic about the problems a generalised simultaneous collapse would bring and a recession is not localised; it won't be contained to one or two countries.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

Businesses with cross-border operations don't rely on common regulations only because governments force them to.  There is a huge amount of inertia behind the existing integrated model, precisely because it is more efficient.  It would require massive government intervention to change that.

Crisis has a habit of changing things quite quickly.

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10 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

How can they leave something which no longer exists?

Why would it no longer exist?  The body of EU law would still exist in all circumstances, and there would still be value in maintaining it as the basis of cooperation, no matter what happens.

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9 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I know.

We are talking about the breakup of the EU.

Try to keep up.

How can I keep up with this catastrophising line of thinking that has a huge obvious gap in the middle?

1. Eurozone financial crisis, one or more countries leave the euro to regain monetary policy.

2. ???

3. EU abolished

Edited by Dorkins

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5 minutes ago, crouch said:

And the size of the economies of these countries?

Why would size matter when you want to split a currency? It's the same redenomination process.

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2 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Why would it no longer exist?  The body of EU law would still exist in all circumstances, and there would still be value in maintaining it as the basis of cooperation, no matter what happens.

Perhaps. Perhaps not.

We are taking about a collapse of the EU.

Who enforces laws of extinct organisations?

Does Soviet law still apply in Belarus?

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15 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

 

I’m not hysterical about an EU aircraft carrier, of which remainers are in complete denial over.

LOL No one apart from you cares whether or not the EU wants/gets an aircraft carrier.

Although if they do, it would be a chance to offload one of our 2 oversized under equiped carriers

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8 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

How can I keep up with this catastrophising line of thinking that has a huge obvious gap in the middle?

1. Eurozone financial crisis, one or more countries leave the euro to regain monetary policy.

2. ???

3. EU abolished

Collapse of the Roman Empire

Collapse of the Ottoman Empire

Collapse of the Soviet Empire

Edit: Collapse of the British Empire!

Collapse of the EU Empire.

Don’t let hubris cloud your perspective.

Edited by GrizzlyDave

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1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

LOL No one apart from you cares whether or not the EU wants/gets an aircraft carrier.

Although if they do, it would be a chance to offload one of our 2 oversized under equiped carriers

First they came forth with aircraft carrier proposals, and I did not speak out, because I’m not interested in aircraft carrier proposals...

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6 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Perhaps. Perhaps not.

We are taking about a collapse of the EU.

Who enforces laws of extinct organisations?

Does Soviet law still apply in Belarus?

There's no perhaps about it.  Why do you think stage one of any Brexit plan is to make sure existing EU law still operates in the UK?

The Soviet Union was a totalitarian communist dictatorship in which the economy was owned and operated by the state.  There's no comparison at all between the break up of the USSR and this scenario.

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7 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Collapse of the Roman Empire

Collapse of the Ottoman Empire

Collapse of the Soviet Empire

Edit: Collapse of the British Empire!

Collapse of the EU Empire.

Don’t let hubris cloud your perspective.

On that timescale the EU is only just getting started, and you won't live to see the day when it might be superseded by something else.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

There's no perhaps about it.  Why do you think stage one of any Brexit plan is to make sure existing EU law still operates in the UK?

The Soviet Union was a totalitarian communist dictatorship in which the economy was owned and operated by the state.  There's no comparison at all between the break up of the USSR and this scenario.

The Soviet breakup is one of many. History is littered with collapsed Empires. To think the EU is immune to this, to think the EU can’t break up, is foolish and naive. It’s utter hubris.

HUBRIS.

Our parliament is full of remainers who don’t want to leave. But where EU law begins to be perceived as not working for the interests of the UK then a ‘war of laws’ might initiate.

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3 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

On that timescale the EU is only just getting started, and you won't live to see the day when it might be superseded by something else.

Who knows - this is all speculation - but history tells us it is possible.

As I said earlier I think a USofE is more likely than the breakup of the EU.

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3 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

The Soviet breakup is one of many. History is littered with collapsed Empires. To think the EU is immune to this, to think the EU can’t break up, is foolish and naive. It’s utter hubris.

HUBRIS.

Our parliament is full of remainers who don’t want to leave. But where EU law begins to be perceived as not working for the interests of the UK then a ‘war of laws’ might initiate.

You're misinterpreting my position.  The EU is unique compared to all your other examples because it was developed based on mutual interest, not domination.

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19 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Why would size matter when you want to split a currency? It's the same redenomination process.

Size doesn't matter in that context but it does in the context I envisage which is a general recession and/or financial crash which affects all countries in the EZ - as these things do.

And I'm not talking about redenomination of just a currency for ongoing purposes I'm talking about redenomination of debts.

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21 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Collapse of the Roman Empire

Collapse of the Ottoman Empire

Collapse of the Soviet Empire

Collapse of the EU Empire.

Don’t let hubris cloud your perspective.

Everything is transient, including nations.

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  • 190 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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