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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

It would have to be whatever the contracting parties decide it to be.

That's not a realistic answer.  How would France decide to trust regulations in Italy, Belgium or Spain if not by alignment?

1 hour ago, crouch said:

That has two possible answers. Yes or No.

What do you think the answer is?

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17 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

That's not a realistic answer.  How would France decide to trust regulations in Italy, Belgium or Spain if not by alignment?

It is the realistic answer. The agreement is what the contracting parties are happy with otherwise they won't agree. 

 

19 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

What do you think the answer is?

It would depend on the circumstances. There is no a priori answer.

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2 hours ago, crouch said:

Of course but I didn't mention Brexit; I offered a critique based on his proposals - his third option.

But anything that needs "saving" must be in a bad way. 

Everything worth having needs saving.

You cannot have failed to notice that Varoufakis issues a stark warning of the consequences of a disintegrated EU and the role he feels we could play in assisting it to a healthier position. He states quite clearly that it is the least worse of the options we have. For what it's worth, I agree with him. I am sure you will not find anyone who has read that article sympathetic to the EU, not me for sure, but I also recognise that throwing the system out alltogether (without some kind of a plan) is courting trouble. I have no sympathy with those that do.

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3 minutes ago, crouch said:

It would depend on the circumstances. There is no a priori answer.

You're predicting the collapse of the EU, so if your answer isn't a clear "yes", I suggest you haven't thought it through.

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14 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

You're predicting the collapse of the EU, so if your answer isn't a clear "yes", I suggest you haven't thought it through.

Can you read? I said "if the EU goes down". If means if not when. I predict nothing.

And I am supposed to speculate that, if a certain condition is fulfilled - the demise of the EU - will they keep a customs union out of the wreckage? Are you serious? Really?

Can I "suggest" you are either idiot or troll.

Edited by crouch

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2 hours ago, kzb said:

You can see it coming.  In some workplaces they will be required to clock out for toilet breaks.

Also how is this going to work with people "working at home" and working on the train?

Maybe we need Gestapoo agents to monitor?

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

Can you read? I said "if the EU goes down". If means if not when. I predict nothing.

And I am supposed to speculate that, if a certain condition is fulfilled - the demise of the EU - will they keep a customs union out of the wreckage? Are you serious? Really?

Yes I can read.  You said, "If the Euro goes down it will take the EU with it."  I'm questioning your assertion and it turns out that you're not at all sure about it.

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7 hours ago, excon said:

Both sides are polarised, in entrenched positions and not listening to one other, the whole argument is pointless, let the ballot box decide.

Yes, the ballot box should decide in a Brexit end state referendum, EU vs EFTA vs WTO. Ideally this would be held after the withdrawal agreement is passed and the UK leaves the EU but it seems ERG is determined not to let that happen.

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2 hours ago, crouch said:

The ancient monarchs did. "Big brother" was known as the "Groom of the Stool". 

That’s a shit job!

Edited by GrizzlyDave

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15 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Yes I can read.  You said, "If the Euro goes down it will take the EU with it."  I'm questioning your assertion and it turns out that you're not at all sure about it.

I don't have to be sure about anything.

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Just now, crouch said:

I don't have to be sure about anything.

Ok, can you at least clarify what you understand by "take the EU with it" if not the disintegration of the customs union and single market and abolition of the institutions?

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5 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Ok, can you at least clarify what you understand by "take the EU with it" if not the disintegration of the customs union and single market and abolition of the institutions?

Really these idiotic questions...

You are seriously asking me - seriously - to describe the dynamics of the disintegration of a bloc consisting of 27 countries? Seriously? Seriously?

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3 minutes ago, crouch said:

Really these idiotic questions...

You are seriously asking me - seriously - to describe the dynamics of the disintegration of a bloc consisting of 27 countries? Seriously? Seriously?

Yes, because if you can't describe a plausible scenario even at a high level then your prediction is baseless.

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47 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Everything worth having needs saving.

You cannot have failed to notice that Varoufakis issues a stark warning of the consequences of a disintegrated EU and the role he feels we could play in assisting it to a healthier position. He states quite clearly that it is the least worse of the options we have. For what it's worth, I agree with him. I am sure you will not find anyone who has read that article sympathetic to the EU, not me for sure, but I also recognise that throwing the system out alltogether (without some kind of a plan) is courting trouble. I have no sympathy with those that do.

As a matter of fact I agree with him at least in respect of the EZ. This is for the simple reason that failure of the Euro would be cataclysmic; in fact I think it's almost Hobson's choice. If the UK were in the Euro there's no way we could leave in my view; we'd have to stay.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

Yes, because if you can't describe a plausible scenario even at a high level then your prediction is baseless.

I don't make predictions about the future; I make prophesies. Those prophesies may be proved right or they may be proved wrong.

Quite frankly if you think the EU could survive in anything near its current form if the Euro failed then you are living in cloud cuckoo land.

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4 hours ago, crouch said:

A customs union.

A customs union only eliminates internal tariffs and customs checks. The much bigger win is the single market which does away with regulatory checks.

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

I don't make predictions about the future; I make prophesies. Those prophesies may be proved right or they may be proved wrong.

Quite frankly if you think the EU could survive in anything near its current form if the Euro failed then you are living in cloud cuckoo land.

You seem to think it's sufficient to prophesise doom without logic.  For example, if Greece had accepted the Schaeuble plan to leave the Euro, it wouldn't have done anything to destroy the EU.

http://www.sven-giegold.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/grexit_bundesregierung_non_paper_10_juli_2015.pdf

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4 hours ago, crouch said:

If the Euro goes down it will take the EU with it.

We're back to vague collapse language. Could you please explain what "the euro goes down" means?

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2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

A customs union only eliminates internal tariffs and customs checks. The much bigger win is the single market which does away with regulatory checks.

Quite so.

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14 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

You seem to think it's sufficient to prophesise doom without logic.  For example, if Greece had accepted the Schaeuble plan to leave the Euro, it wouldn't have done anything to destroy the EU.

http://www.sven-giegold.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/grexit_bundesregierung_non_paper_10_juli_2015.pdf

Rather than focus on Greece I’d suggest Italy.

If the Italians bailed from the Euro, and it collapses, and no one can contain it, and it got proper nasty with Germany, then it’s conceivable that they could completely step away from the table as the stability pact collapses, and panic chases the evaporating money supply. If a founding member left the EU, then anything could happen.

I think a USofE is more likely.

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23 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

A customs union only eliminates internal tariffs and customs checks. The much bigger win is the single market which does away with regulatory checks.

Is that why they want an aircraft carrier?

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1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Rather than focus on Greece I’d suggest Italy.

If the Italians bailed from the Euro, and it collapses, and no one can contain it, and it got proper nasty with Germany, then it’s conceivable that they could completely step away from the table as the stability pact collapses, and panic chases the evaporating money supply. If a founding member left the EU, then anything could happen.

I think a USofE is more likely.

Why would a plan for Italy to leave the Eurozone look any different?  They're not going to simultaneously decide that it's a good time to leave the single market and customs union and establish independent regulatory capacity and a separate trade policy.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

Why would a plan for Italy to leave the Eurozone look any different?  They're not going to simultaneously decide that it's a good time to leave the single market and customs union and establish independent regulatory capacity and a separate trade policy.

I’m speculating.

Italy is a founding member. My point is that if a founding member were to leave, then the whole project could go pop.

What would be significant enough for Italy to leave?

A profound breakdown in trust and shared responsibility as the Euro goes pop and countries revert to looking after themselves, and sacrificing others. GFC2 on steroids.

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Just now, GrizzlyDave said:

I’m speculating.

Italy is a founding member. My point is that if a founding member were to leave, then the whole project could go pop.

What would be significant enough for Italy to leave?

A profound breakdown in trust and shared responsibility as the Euro goes pop and countries revert to looking after themselves, and sacrificing others. GFC2 on steroids.

What does "go pop" mean in the real world?  It's not a balloon.

What does "revert to looking after themselves" mean?  You think they're going to stop exports of goods?

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19 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

You seem to think it's sufficient to prophesise doom without logic.  For example, if Greece had accepted the Schaeuble plan to leave the Euro, it wouldn't have done anything to destroy the EU.

http://www.sven-giegold.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/grexit_bundesregierung_non_paper_10_juli_2015.pdf

I was not talking about one small country leaving the EZ; I was talking about the whole EZ being subject to a recession and/or financial crash.

In that case some countries would have to borrow more and their IRs would go up and create a negative feedback loop thus making the problems worse.

The ECB might be able to step up QE but this has limited effect and there is a distinct possibility that they could not contain any crisis.

There is no mechanism for fiscal transfers in the EZ so problems cannot be alleviated this way.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251945-can-eu-survive-next-financial-crisis

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  • 224 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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