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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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47 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Everything worth having needs saving.

You cannot have failed to notice that Varoufakis issues a stark warning of the consequences of a disintegrated EU and the role he feels we could play in assisting it to a healthier position. He states quite clearly that it is the least worse of the options we have. For what it's worth, I agree with him. I am sure you will not find anyone who has read that article sympathetic to the EU, not me for sure, but I also recognise that throwing the system out alltogether (without some kind of a plan) is courting trouble. I have no sympathy with those that do.

As a matter of fact I agree with him at least in respect of the EZ. This is for the simple reason that failure of the Euro would be cataclysmic; in fact I think it's almost Hobson's choice. If the UK were in the Euro there's no way we could leave in my view; we'd have to stay.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

Yes, because if you can't describe a plausible scenario even at a high level then your prediction is baseless.

I don't make predictions about the future; I make prophesies. Those prophesies may be proved right or they may be proved wrong.

Quite frankly if you think the EU could survive in anything near its current form if the Euro failed then you are living in cloud cuckoo land.

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4 hours ago, crouch said:

A customs union.

A customs union only eliminates internal tariffs and customs checks. The much bigger win is the single market which does away with regulatory checks.

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

I don't make predictions about the future; I make prophesies. Those prophesies may be proved right or they may be proved wrong.

Quite frankly if you think the EU could survive in anything near its current form if the Euro failed then you are living in cloud cuckoo land.

You seem to think it's sufficient to prophesise doom without logic.  For example, if Greece had accepted the Schaeuble plan to leave the Euro, it wouldn't have done anything to destroy the EU.

http://www.sven-giegold.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/grexit_bundesregierung_non_paper_10_juli_2015.pdf

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4 hours ago, crouch said:

If the Euro goes down it will take the EU with it.

We're back to vague collapse language. Could you please explain what "the euro goes down" means?

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2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

A customs union only eliminates internal tariffs and customs checks. The much bigger win is the single market which does away with regulatory checks.

Quite so.

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14 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

You seem to think it's sufficient to prophesise doom without logic.  For example, if Greece had accepted the Schaeuble plan to leave the Euro, it wouldn't have done anything to destroy the EU.

http://www.sven-giegold.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/grexit_bundesregierung_non_paper_10_juli_2015.pdf

Rather than focus on Greece I’d suggest Italy.

If the Italians bailed from the Euro, and it collapses, and no one can contain it, and it got proper nasty with Germany, then it’s conceivable that they could completely step away from the table as the stability pact collapses, and panic chases the evaporating money supply. If a founding member left the EU, then anything could happen.

I think a USofE is more likely.

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23 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

A customs union only eliminates internal tariffs and customs checks. The much bigger win is the single market which does away with regulatory checks.

Is that why they want an aircraft carrier?

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1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Rather than focus on Greece I’d suggest Italy.

If the Italians bailed from the Euro, and it collapses, and no one can contain it, and it got proper nasty with Germany, then it’s conceivable that they could completely step away from the table as the stability pact collapses, and panic chases the evaporating money supply. If a founding member left the EU, then anything could happen.

I think a USofE is more likely.

Why would a plan for Italy to leave the Eurozone look any different?  They're not going to simultaneously decide that it's a good time to leave the single market and customs union and establish independent regulatory capacity and a separate trade policy.

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1 minute ago, thecrashingisles said:

Why would a plan for Italy to leave the Eurozone look any different?  They're not going to simultaneously decide that it's a good time to leave the single market and customs union and establish independent regulatory capacity and a separate trade policy.

I’m speculating.

Italy is a founding member. My point is that if a founding member were to leave, then the whole project could go pop.

What would be significant enough for Italy to leave?

A profound breakdown in trust and shared responsibility as the Euro goes pop and countries revert to looking after themselves, and sacrificing others. GFC2 on steroids.

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Just now, GrizzlyDave said:

I’m speculating.

Italy is a founding member. My point is that if a founding member were to leave, then the whole project could go pop.

What would be significant enough for Italy to leave?

A profound breakdown in trust and shared responsibility as the Euro goes pop and countries revert to looking after themselves, and sacrificing others. GFC2 on steroids.

What does "go pop" mean in the real world?  It's not a balloon.

What does "revert to looking after themselves" mean?  You think they're going to stop exports of goods?

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19 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

You seem to think it's sufficient to prophesise doom without logic.  For example, if Greece had accepted the Schaeuble plan to leave the Euro, it wouldn't have done anything to destroy the EU.

http://www.sven-giegold.de/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/grexit_bundesregierung_non_paper_10_juli_2015.pdf

I was not talking about one small country leaving the EZ; I was talking about the whole EZ being subject to a recession and/or financial crash.

In that case some countries would have to borrow more and their IRs would go up and create a negative feedback loop thus making the problems worse.

The ECB might be able to step up QE but this has limited effect and there is a distinct possibility that they could not contain any crisis.

There is no mechanism for fiscal transfers in the EZ so problems cannot be alleviated this way.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251945-can-eu-survive-next-financial-crisis

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6 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

What does "go pop" mean in the real world?  It's not a balloon.

What does "revert to looking after themselves" mean?  You think they're going to stop exports of goods?

You’re being obtuse.

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Just now, GrizzlyDave said:

You’re being obtuse.

No, I'm pointing out the problems with your thinking.  You seem to equate "a bit of political drama" with "the collapse of the EU" without thinking about what that would actually entail in practical terms and why anyone would want it.  The single market isn't held together by force.

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27 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

We're back to vague collapse language. Could you please explain what "the euro goes down" means?

In this particular context it means a situation of recession and/or financial crisis  which afflicts members of the EZ simultaneously. This is widely expected.

Those weaker members find that their fiscal position deteriorates quickly and their IRs go up sharply and this sets up a negative feedback loop which makes the problems very much worse. The ECB responds by QE but can only do so with a limited effect and many believe the ECB would be unable to contain the problem.

As there is no fiscal transfer mechanism within the EZ there is no relief in that direction. In fact Germany is owed nearly Euros1 tn under the existing Target 2 system with the creditors being the southern countries of the EZ.

Given this, what is the alternative for the weaker vessels? Horrendous austerity leading to huge political problems? Begging Germany for relief - hardly brotherly is it?

Or bowing to the inevitable and leaving the flagship achievement of the EU? In those circumstances probably Hobson's choice.

Speculation? Certainly. Possible? Yes.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251945-can-eu-survive-next-financial-crisis

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12 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

No, I'm pointing out the problems with your thinking.  You seem to equate "a bit of political drama" with "the collapse of the EU" without thinking about what that would actually entail in practical terms and why anyone would want it.  The single market isn't held together by force.

You seem to think that the Euro will survive. Why? What are your reasons for thinking it will not collapse?

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27 minutes ago, crouch said:

I was not talking about one small country leaving the EZ; I was talking about the whole EZ being subject to a recession and/or financial crash.

In that case some countries would have to borrow more and their IRs would go up and create a negative feedback loop thus making the problems worse.

The ECB might be able to step up QE but this has limited effect and there is a distinct possibility that they could not contain any crisis.

There is no mechanism for fiscal transfers in the EZ so problems cannot be alleviated this way.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251945-can-eu-survive-next-financial-crisis

Alasdair Macleod is the head of research at GoldMoney. He also runs FinanceandEconomics.org, a website dedicated to the notion of 'sound' money. He's been predicting the EU's imminent demise for a very long time. 

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36 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Is that why they want an aircraft carrier?

The problem is, lusting after the break down of the EU on the one hand and getting hysterical over a fecking EU aircraft carrier on the other only makes sense if you are Putin.

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

You seem to think that the Euro will survive. Why? What are your reasons for thinking it will not collapse?

I do, but my argument is that even if it didn't and some countries left, it wouldn't precipitate anything like the collapse of the EU.  As Brexit shows, even if a country wants to detach itself from the single market and customs union, it requires a lot of active effort, and it can't happen by accident.

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8 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Alasdair Macleod is the head of research at GoldMoney. He also runs FinanceandEconomics.org, a website dedicated to the notion of 'sound' money. He's been predicting the EU's imminent demise for a very long time. 

So have many others. Of course that doesn't mean he's wrong.

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17 minutes ago, crouch said:

In this particular context it means a situation of recession and/or financial crisis  which afflicts members of the EZ simultaneously. This is widely expected.

Those weaker members find that their fiscal position deteriorates quickly and their IRs go up sharply and this sets up a negative feedback loop which makes the problems very much worse. The ECB responds by QE but can only do so with a limited effect and many believe the ECB would be unable to contain the problem.

As there is no fiscal transfer mechanism within the EZ there is no relief in that direction. In fact Germany is owed nearly Euros1 tn under the existing Target 2 system with the creditors being the southern countries of the EZ.

Given this, what is the alternative for the weaker vessels? Horrendous austerity leading to huge political problems? Begging Germany for relief - hardly brotherly is it?

Or bowing to the inevitable and leaving the flagship achievement of the EU? In those circumstances probably Hobson's choice.

Speculation? Certainly. Possible? Yes.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4251945-can-eu-survive-next-financial-crisis

If some of the weaker economies leave the euro to regain the ability to print fiat it's hardly the end of the world, is it? Why would Greece/Italy/Spain/Portugal setting up their own currencies again mean all 28 EU member states suddenly decide to submit their A50 notices and abolish the EU? They will still want to trade with each other just like the current non-euro EU countries do.

Edited by Dorkins

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5 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

I do, but my argument is that even if it didn't and some countries left, it wouldn't precipitate anything like the collapse of the EU.  As Brexit shows, even if a country wants to detach itself from the single market and customs union, it requires a lot of active effort, and it can't happen by accident.

Where are your arguments? You're always asking others for chapter and verse. Where's yours?

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5 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

If some of the weaker economies leave the euro to regain the ability to print fiat it's hardly the end of the world, is it? Why would Greece/Italy/Spain/Portugal setting up their own currencies again mean all 28 member states suddenly decide to submit their A50 notices and abolish the EU? They will still want to trade with each other just like the current non-euro EU countries do.

Did I say that? Did I even discuss dynamics? If the weaker vessels leave the Euro then that is a huge blow for the whole project not just the EZ. Of course they will want to trade but the EU is more than that. 

One of the major decisions those weaker countries would have to take is redenomination. If they redenominate then that will cause huge problems for the rest of the EZ. If they don't that will cause huge problems for them.

Edited by crouch

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2 minutes ago, crouch said:

Where are your arguments? You're always asking others for chapter and verse. Where's yours?

I've explained why I don't think it would lead to the collapse of the EU: because it is held together organically, not by force, and there would be no incentive for anyone to combine an exit from the Eurozone with an exit from the single market or customs union.

As for the survival of the Eurozone, you seem to pin a lot on the supposed impossibility of fiscal transfers even in the face of the political will to do it, but that doesn't make sense, as there's nothing to stop a new treaty being agreed, and there have already been several examples of successful crisis resolution measures.  Greece is a unique example because it wasn't simply a crisis induced by a recession but something that revealed much deeper issues.

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29 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

No, I'm pointing out the problems with your thinking.  You seem to equate "a bit of political drama" with "the collapse of the EU" without thinking about what that would actually entail in practical terms and why anyone would want it.  The single market isn't held together by force.

I have suggested that a founding members departure could cause sufficient shock waves for others to follow leading to total collapse.

What would cause Italy to leave? A profound financial crash of the banking system, individual nations no longer supporting the stability pact; profound crisis in the EU council, etc.

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  • 190 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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