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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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31 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Is that same lady as earlier posts ie the one who made death treats against the Prime Minister?

Does anyone know is this is fake news or not as it has not been taken down.

https://order-order.com/2019/03/22/revoke-article-50-petition-creator-threatened-may-discussed-buy-legal-guns-take-commons/

I have no idea if it's true or false, but either way it makes no difference to the petition which is now approaching five million votes.

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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9 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Brexit was a regressive vote supported largely by conservative people.

Exactly. 2015 Conservative voters went 39 remain to 61 leave, 2015 Labour voters went 65 remain to 35 leave, 2015 non-voters went about the same as the rest of the population 53-47 so no particularly strong tendency towards leave.

Edited by Dorkins
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9 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

LMAO is evidently easier for you than answering questions when you're challenged.

Is the EU at Breaking Point?

Are you ready to answer my previous challenges to your narratives?

1. 

Ignorance of racial classifications or racism on your part?

Nope, don’t you remember ? I pretty much gave up after trying to debate populism with you.  I’m sure your ‘narratives’ will come out in the wash anyway.

Jesus wept does me ridiculing xenophobia upset you so much ? I don’t know whether this is bonkers or deliberate ...oh wait have you just tricked me into carrying on with this sh1t lol?

 

Edited by pig
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41 minutes ago, crouch said:

The EU has been very good at harmonising regulations over the 27 members. What this means is more regulation and that tends to favour larger more established business.

What it is far less good at is surveying the ROW and asking itself: "what do we need to do to be competitive as a bloc?" The reason is perhaps obvious: it may mean less regulation and more competition within the bloc and this runs up against the powerful and established interests.

The EU has been very good at what could be termed "negative integration", that is removing discrimination between members and far less good at "positive integration" of which the CAP is arguably the main achievement.

 

Agreed.

I've said a number of times I have some sympathy for some of the brexit arguments. I don't doubt that the UK will be able to use brexit as a deregulation exercise and undercut the remaining EU countries because of this. There may be an argument to be made that lower regulation is better as it forces more market competition.

But that in itself is one of my problems with brexit. The EU was set up and has evolved in the manner it has, because the member states desired it. It has been designed to be a largely liberal, progressive block that tries to protect citizens from the more harmful effects of the market economy (and in that it does fail, like anything will occasionally). And most importantly, it was designed this way on purpose as a response to centuries of warfare amongst competing states in Europe, on each others doorsteps.

The very point of the EU is to try to prevent what the UK now wants to do which is engage in economic warfare on standards with their neighbours, for the benefit of the UK.

Yes, there are flaws to the EU but on the whole I support what the member states are trying to do with it. 

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29 minutes ago, Ghostly said:

4,852,466 'signatures' of anybody from anywhere in the world who has a fake e-mail address. I'm sure all of them are legit though.

You seriously think that the rest of the world has no better thing than singing up to Brexit petition or they hate us so much and trying to derail beautifulllll (Trump alert)  Brexit to prevent rebirth of majestic The British Empire. The world does not give us a damn shit!

Yes,We are a small ( but important though ) part of the world and we can punch much heavier than our weight.We have a great history( w/o forgetting shameful parts) that must inspire us for doing better.However, unless we collaborate with others particularly our neighbours, we will lose so much.

Last word for the people thinking "Remain" is the idea of "The idea of The establishment" . Go and have a look who lead the idea of Brexit? They are the proper establishment. The other organisations been accused for establishment are citadels of the wealth, prosperity and ultimately PEACE we have. They are far from perfect, on the other hand the best available way of governing. You may disagree with the idea of the EU state but everybody forgets that we have right to veto it as long as we are a member of it.

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1 minute ago, dugsbody said:

Agreed.

I've said a number of times I have some sympathy for some of the brexit arguments. I don't doubt that the UK will be able to use brexit as a deregulation exercise and undercut the remaining EU countries because of this. There may be an argument to be made that lower regulation is better as it forces more market competition.

But that in itself is one of my problems with brexit. The EU was set up and has evolved in the manner it has, because the member states desired it. It has been designed to be a largely liberal, progressive block that tries to protect citizens from the more harmful effects of the market economy (and in that it does fail, like anything will occasionally). And most importantly, it was designed this way on purpose as a response to centuries of warfare amongst competing states in Europe, on each others doorsteps.

The very point of the EU is to try to prevent what the UK now wants to do which is engage in economic warfare on standards with their neighbours, for the benefit of the UK.

Yes, there are flaws to the EU but on the whole I support what the member states are trying to do with it. 

My view is that of an old fashioned social democrat and I don't agree with the "Singapore on Thames" view of Brexit. We will have to see whether things turn out like you suggest; I hope they don't. Competition and regulation are difficult areas. In some areas - banking is one - we don't have nearly enough and the TBTF banks are like a sword of damocles over the whole economy; we need more regulation not less.

As to the purpose of the EU it was more a buttress against an expansionist Soviet Union than a desire to eliminate war. After the war there arose the Morgenthau plan which saw the pastoralisation of Germany, a plan that was dropped and succeeded by the Marshall Plan to build up Europe as a bulwark against the Soviet Union and the ECSC and EEC flowed from this. The Shuman Declaration establishing the ECSC was written by Dean Acheson, the US  Secretary of State.

 

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10 hours ago, Kosmin said:

Carney and the MPC haven't decided if they will crash prices or push them up further. IR up or down, QE, FLS, FFS.

Don't hope for a recession to cause house prices. Just put pressure on the government to follow sensible housing policies: end HTB and RTB, restrict housing benefit, immediate stamp duty reform (remove or drastically cut stamp duty, but increase the  3% surcharge to a sensible level, like at least 30%, and higher for each additional property, and much more severe taxation for foreigners, especially if they leave properties vacant all the time). Introduce LVT.

They have.

At Carney's recent appearance in front of the select committee a BoE rep attending with him explained that their response to no deal would be to restart QE, provide banks with additional liquidity and to cut interest rates. 

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11 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

The angrier they get the more veiled threats of physical violence they allude to.

Yes I have noticed this before. The threats have been slowly escalating over the last few weeks because the fascists want to silence any dissent. Look at the death threats that poor lady has received over her petition. It is utterly vile and disgusting. 

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13 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

Why?

Until its both more than 16 million and also showing in areas that where not already remain its just the same people shouting again.

Like the marches in London.... wonderfully impressive but its not a march in Great Yarmouth or Boston

There seems to be a mismatch in enthusiasm FF

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/brexit-backing-blockade-labelled-pathetic-16016771

https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/local-news/brexit-demonstrators-plan-disrupt-brittany-2677264

Including Farage's washout address

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1 hour ago, rollover said:

It's not possible this time

 

 

I'm unconvinced.

It is relatively easy to set up a mail server and add as many email addresses as you like. Any medium sized business is likely to do this, but anyone with the skill can do it; it isn't that hard technically.

Moreover, you can easily script to read incoming emails. This technique is used by spam blockers and virus checkers, for example. Parsing the content of an email and sending a request to a link within it is also relatively trivial for a software developer.

I'd say a relatively skilled software/devops type could get something working within a day. They could also use a VPN to scatter the requests to make source less predictable. They could also dynamically spin up virtual environments via scripts to hit the confirmation links; using Amazon Lambda or some such would mean a pool of IP addresses could be recycled pretty easily.

More advanced solutions could use bot nets to scatter the requests too, but that would require more serious knowledge and infrastructure.

In short, it doesn't appear half as complicated as they make out. There is no need to hack people's real email addresses, as it would be pointlessly complex compared to the alternatives.

Edited by Traktion
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12 hours ago, Confounded said:

Yes, leave on no deal and get on with things, or call the whole things off (politically very tough to do), just don’t tit around the fudged middle like we have for nearly 3 years now.....

I think this the right approach. The middle is nothing to no-one. It only serves the politicians who won't or can't admit it. There is no configuration of the centre that solves the problem.

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11 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

:lol:

Not at all, since the context of the posts was Euro governance and the Eurocrisis. 

Your second sentence implies a misunderstanding of Juncker's role and the troubled history of the Euro i.e. crisis didn't start in 2016.

I want to thank you for reminding me of this:

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/no-deal-brexit-steve-eisman-big-short-investor-betting-against-uk-stocks-2018-11?r=US&IR=T

 

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1 hour ago, Ghostly said:

I didn’t say bots. I said person with a fake e-mail address. That doesn’t mean ‘stolen’ either.

Once again, can't be fake e-mail address due to the validation process.
 

Quote

 

The petition's email validation process

Each signatory has to supply a unique email address to which a verification link is sent before their signature can be accepted.

Additionally, the owner still need to access email accounts and retrieve the validation email before being able to sign in.

BBC

 

 

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I have got no problem with the European people, imo we have more in common with them than many other places in the world......they think not a lot differently to ourselves.....Brexit takes away more of our freedoms and choices than it will create for the majority of people in the UK.....sure brexit will enable some to become wealthier than they are at the moment, but not for the normal middle class working Europeans.....;)

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10 hours ago, Sledgehead said:

 

No, the market economy embraces change. Big Business however is moribund and clay-footed. Small start-ups are nimble: they can go with ideas. Big Business needs to tilt the pitch to survive. It does that with regulations and it bribes the PTB with offers of revenue (tax) and work for idle hands that might otherwise cause trouble (employment). Bureaucrats and big business thus form a marriage of convenience: the bureaucrats supply regulations that smother upstarts and big biz throws it some money.

And they don't want anything to disrupt this status quo tha they have established.

Brexit does just that. That's why they, the establishment, hate it.

I agree about most corporations being too powerful. I despise the American system which has more abusive power corps than the norm - which others have had to follow to compete. Generally with their money only pursuits they have corrupted much.

But the hole in your argument is without them, there would be very few jobs. Mass unemployment is not something that makes a good society. Britain in the 1970s was an unhappy, desolate place - great music though which made up for it to a small degree.

If we had better government here - who were not on the books either by consultations or promises of a retirement role - all the things you talk of would be better.

Both the US and UK are for sale. I don't see how this is going to change after Brexit except to make the purchase chain shorter and easier.

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25 minutes ago, Traktion said:

I'm unconvinced.

It is relatively easy to set up a mail server and add as many email addresses as you like. Any medium sized business is likely to do this, but anyone with the skill can do it; it isn't that hard technically.

Moreover, you can easily script to read incoming emails. This technique is used by spam blockers and virus checkers, for example. Parsing the content of an email and sending a request to a link within it is also relatively trivial for a software developer.

I'd say a relatively skilled software/devops type could get something working within a day. They could also use a VPN to scatter the requests to make source less predictable. They could also dynamically spin up virtual environments via scripts to hit the confirmation links; using Amazon Lambda or some such would mean a pool of IP addresses could be recycled pretty easily.

More advanced solutions could use bot nets to scatter the requests too, but that would require more serious knowledge and infrastructure.

In short, it doesn't appear half as complicated as they make out. There is no need to hack people's real email addresses, as it would be pointlessly complex compared to the alternatives.

Extraordinairy number but...

Million marchers yesterday, the petition seems to have gone viral after Mays tv address (certainly radically changed my opinion !) and the country has been driven into an abject crisis by a Tory elite (with the aid of populism lol). 

Im starting to believe that number could get substantially higher. 

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5 minutes ago, rollover said:

Once again, can't be fake e-mail address due to the validation process.

You don't need to fake email addresses. It is easy enough to create real ones.

Tbh, you wouldn't actually need half the stuff I wrote about above. Just get a room full of volunteers to do data entry for a few days.

Even creating each email address and manually going through the process wouldn't take more than a few mins. At, say, 10 votes an hour, a team of 100 could be stuffing 1000 bogus votes an hour.

I doubt paying 100 people NMW for a week or so would run the sponsors pockets dry. Relative to advertising etc, it would be positively cheap, especially if you use a Twitter network of rabid fans to publicise it.

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1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

I'm not talking about the relative sizes of the different age groups, I'm saying that in the 1950s-90s Labour would typically have held a small lead (e.g. 10 points) among younger age groups and the Tories would typically have held a small lead among older age groups. Now that trend is much bigger, with Labour picking up 2/3rds of younger voters and the Tories picking up 2/3rds of over 65s. Age is a much stronger predictor of voting intention now than it was in the past and other things that were strong predictors in the past like household income are weaker predictors.

Not any longer,. Lab is quickly losing young voters, likely due to their support for Brexit

D2IBiE8X0AELNWO.jpg

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10 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Thatch wasn't hated because she wantonly destroyed the coal mining industry! She was hated because her demented monetarist convictions put 3.5 million people out of work and dealt British manufacturing a blow from which it has never recovered. There Is No Alternative was her histrionic shriek. Until 1985, that is, when monetarism was dropped without fanfare and neoliberalism embraced with the same blind devotion.

Absolutely. Those that put Thatcher on a pedestal were not affected by her Hayek and Minford religion. Brexiters should be very careful what they wish for as Minford is still around 'advising' the ERG. If they get their way - we'll see the whole thing repeated.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/devastating-future-welsh-manufacturing-predicted-15323164

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/mps-react-after-vote-leave-11269819

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2019/01/28/brexit-to-destroy-u-k-car-manufacturing-lead-to-cheaper-imported-cars-increase-traffic-congestion/#32e33de85c4b

" Minford is professor of economics at Cardiff Business School, a former advisor to Margaret Thatcher and supporter of the U.K. poll tax introduced in 1989 and which led to riots in 1990. He heads the pro-Brexit campaign group Economists for Free Trade (EFT), formerly known as Economists for Brexit. This group denies climate change, preferring neoliberal-style environmental deregulation, and has been pushing for a “no deal” Brexit scenario. "

Edited by jonb2
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9 minutes ago, rollover said:

Once again, can't be fake e-mail address due to the validation process.

35 minutes ago, Traktion said:

I'm unconvinced.

It is relatively easy to set up a mail server and add as many email addresses as you like. Any medium sized business is likely to do this, but anyone with the skill can do it; it isn't that hard technically.

Moreover, you can easily script to read incoming emails. This technique is used by spam blockers and virus checkers, for example. Parsing the content of an email and sending a request to a link within it is also relatively trivial for a software developer.

I'd say a relatively skilled software/devops type could get something working within a day. They could also use a VPN to scatter the requests to make source less predictable. They could also dynamically spin up virtual environments via scripts to hit the confirmation links; using Amazon Lambda or some such would mean a pool of IP addresses could be recycled pretty easily.

More advanced solutions could use bot nets to scatter the requests too, but that would require more serious knowledge and infrastructure.

In short, it doesn't appear half as complicated as they make out. There is no need to hack people's real email addresses, as it would be pointlessly complex compared to the alternatives.

 

You are right  it's not complicated and could be done by any competent developer.

However, doing it in a way that wasn't immediately apparent to anyone with knowledge of how to detect such activity is much harder. 

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Quote

 

Second Brexit vote 'deserves to be considered

One of Theresa May's most senior cabinet ministers has raised the prospect of a second referendum to break the Brexit deadlock.

A day after hundreds of thousands marched in central London to demand another public vote, Chancellor Phillip Hammond said a second referendum, likely to be one of the options put to lawmakers, was a "coherent proposition" that deserves consideration.

"One way or another Parliament is going to have the opportunity this week to decide what it is in favor of, and I hope that it will take that opportunity -- if it can't get behind the Prime Minister's deal -- to say clearly and unambiguously what it can get behind," Hammond told Sky News.

CNN

 

Bye bye Brexit, it was great pleasure!

it's time to go!

Edited by rollover
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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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