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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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HOLA441
8 minutes ago, yelims said:

 

Liam fox announces 'trade agreement' with Norway and Iceland - it only applies in the event of no deal, only covers tariffs, and it requires the UK to accept Norwegian and Icelandic product standards... 'taking back control' they said...

Requires us to accept them for all things or just when we trade with them?

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HOLA442
10 minutes ago, yelims said:

 

Liam fox announces 'trade agreement' with Norway and Iceland - it only applies in the event of no deal, only covers tariffs, and it requires the UK to accept Norwegian and Icelandic product standards... 'taking back control' they said...

Are they going to dump loads of fish onto us?

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HOLA443
35 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

The privatised utility companies are struggling to keep abreast of new demand; manifestly, they have neither the resources or manpower to maintain the existing infrastructure, most of which is decades old.

Public ownership is the only way forward.

You're an economist could you answer this.

No profit-making business will cater for all possible spikes in demand.  This applies to electric and gas as well as water.  Even to supermarket checkouts.

However much water is available, the optimum industry capacity for profit will be lower than the peak demand.  Otherwise the company carries a lot of barely-used assets which cost money.

In ecomomics there must be an equation which describes this.  What is the optimum for water do you think?

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HOLA444
2 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Or build desalination plants which now have costs comparable to pumping water 100miles.

Sure, kick the can down the road a bit further, build more stuff, use more energy - net result you manage for a bit longer, having made things a little worse in the short and medium term whilst storing up bigger problems for the future. Some of us would like things to actually improve.

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HOLA445
8 minutes ago, crouch said:

Two too big to fail banks unite to create an even bigger too big to fail bank and thus ensure that the catastophe when it actually does fail is even bigger than before.

DB is half the size it was ten years ago. It won't fail but the non-performing loans need to be written off.

Some variant of the Green New Deal will be used to reflate the eurozone economies and mop up Germany's excess savings. Democratic reform will follow.

 

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HOLA446
2 minutes ago, kzb said:

You're an economist could you answer this.

No profit-making business will cater for all possible spikes in demand.  This applies to electric and gas as well as water.  Even to supermarket checkouts.

However much water is available, the optimum industry capacity for profit will be lower than the peak demand.  Otherwise the company carries a lot of barely-used assets which cost money.

In ecomomics there must be an equation which describes this.  What is the optimum for water do you think?

I'm not an economist. I've never taken a class in economics or finance! My background is physics/engineering.

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HOLA447
1 hour ago, copydude said:

8 of those are nights. (To paraphrase Ryan Adams)

2 aren't working days.

Just a few hours of fruitcake time in Westminster. 

In practical terms, isn't there quite a lot to do? No deal is still the legal default which means a statute to change the law. Extending or revoking Article 50 still requires negotiation and agreement. 

I found it hard to believe the press reports this morning, and those berating Bercow. Many of the batshit tories are outraged that they can't vote again on a deal they've voted down twice. And equally those who say you can't vote twice in a referendum now appear to want three votes when it suits them. Well, boo hoo.

 

There was also, originally, outrage they were given an opportunity to vote.

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HOLA448
17 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

DB is half the size it was ten years ago. It won't fail but the non-performing loans need to be written off.

Some variant of the Green New Deal will be used to reflate the eurozone economies and mop up Germany's excess savings. Democratic reform will follow.

 

What do you mean by "fail"?

A bank shouldn't be technically insolvent because there's a lender of last resort - the central bank.

But it can be actually insolvent. Writing non performing loans off could render it so, in which case it may, repeat may, be necessary to invoke the EU bail in procedures. By actually insolvent I mean that after the write offs its liabilities exceed its assets.

If this does happen and the write offs reach down to the non insured balances of businesses and individuals then I prophesy mayhem. Which is why I think bail ins with the likes of DB may never be carried out; it will be mergers or, if that fails, which it probably will; bail outs which can be done under the radar.

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HOLA449
10 hours ago, Fletcher said:

Traffic is not going to drop by even 10%, but if it did, fine. We will survive. And after that we will prosper - which is what the EU is terrified of. Have some bloody faith in your country. 

As regards your second comment, I fear it is exactly that mindset that May has carried into her so-called negotiations over the last three years, and we can see where that has landed us. 

The problem is in front of your eyes. You're just not looking at it. Our governments have fecked this place over for 50 years. Either by self-serving greed or 100% incompetence.

The fact our system is so, so broken means 55% of our trade will not be replaced until the system is completely changed. As it is, it will just be the same old, same old decline into serfdom and poverty. They lie. They bull shit. Chris Grayling is the state of the art for our politicians. How can we possibly have faith when the top is so maggot ridden and rotten?

 

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HOLA4410
1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

The problem is in front of your eyes. You're just not looking at it. Our governments have fecked this place over for 50 years. Either by self-serving greed or 100% incompetence.

So stop defending the environment that's allowed incompetent government to grow and thrive!

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HOLA4411
4 hours ago, Chunketh said:

Faith is belief in the absence of proof.

We have proof that our political class are incompetent morons.

We have proof that our business leaders would sell their own grandmother to the altar of profit.

We have proof that this whole debacle has some rather sinister ultra right involvement, now with wind in their sails.

We have proof that our closest friends are salivating over the prospect of dismantling some of our most important national institutions. 

We have proof that our real enemies our dancing with glee and most likely had a hand in the result.

 

In what way and on what planet are any of these things good? 

Exactly.

You have two sets of elites apparently. Those for remain and those for leave. The leave set are far more shadowy and seemingly selfish than what we have had before.

Brexit UK = rich man's playground.

 

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HOLA4412
1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

Exactly.

You have two sets of elites apparently. Those for remain and those for leave. The leave set are far more shadowy and seemingly selfish than what we have had before.

Brexit UK = rich man's playground.

Except that, as has been pointed out several times, most of those rich men want to remain. Brexit is not something the elite are looking forward to, they're nicely served by the EU.

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HOLA4413
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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415
2 hours ago, onlooker said:

Clueless. Soros was able to assault the Pound because its exchange rate was effectively fixed within the ERM. You cannot assault a floating currency, back by a central bank which can issue its own currency, and a government which borrows in its own currency.

Blackrock, Chris Odious and the guy from the Big Short have shorted the UK after Brexit by £2-3 billion. It is supposed they are the tip of the iceberg.

Makes Soros look like an amateur.

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HOLA4416
1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

The privatised utility companies are struggling to keep abreast of new demand; manifestly, they have neither the resources or manpower to maintain the existing infrastructure, most of which is decades old.

Public ownership is the only way forward.

Absolutely agree.

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HOLA4417
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HOLA4418
19 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Exactly.

You have two sets of elites apparently. Those for remain and those for leave. The leave set are far more shadowy and seemingly selfish than what we have had before.

Brexit UK = rich man's playground.

 

Perhaps it could be broken into the elites who pay their UK taxes (remain) and the elites who would prefer their tax schemes and manipulations to stay opaque (leave). 

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HOLA4419
19 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

So stop defending the environment that's allowed incompetent government to grow and thrive!

I am not. I am worried about leaning in to even more neo-liberalism after Brexit. Plus with all the secret visits the Brexiter Cheerleaders have made to the USA. I suggest you watch this as it explains my view of why we are where we are. The EU is the least of the problem.

 

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HOLA4420
4 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I am not. I am worried about leaning in to even more neo-liberalism after Brexit. Plus with all the secret visits the Brexiter Cheerleaders have made to the USA. I suggest you watch this as it explains my view of why we are where we are. The EU is the least of the problem.

Sure, some are but you're concentrating on the smaller number of Brexit supporting people at the top and ignoring the much bigger Remain group who rather like the EU environment. Both are neoliberal scum, but the majority of the money up there leans towards the EU - clearly more of them think that the EU best provides the environment where they fester the best.

So overall whilst the EU certainly isn't our biggest problem it is one of the problems that helps support the people you so despise. Remember this is not a situation where you need to pick a side and say either Westminster or Brussels is good - they are both problems. Westminster is the bigger one, I'll grant you that, but that doesn't do mean that the EU isn't part of it too.

Edited by Riedquat
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HOLA4421
3 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Perhaps it could be broken into the elites who pay their UK taxes (remain) and the elites who would prefer their tax schemes and manipulations to stay opaque (leave). 

Hole in one PB.

"Politicians are better than magicians at taking the attention away from what they are realy doing.

Ajay Rose 07 Nov 2017

Economist Gabriel Zuchman estimates that £5.3 trillion, around 8% of the world’s wealth, is stashed offshore, while the EU is denied up to £158 billion each year by tax havens.

The Paradise Papers have provided an unprecedented insight into the relationship between the world’s richest figures and their relationship with offshore finance, although, tax havens remain a somewhat unknown quantity, despite being an integral part of the world’s economic fabric.

Demands to open up Britain’s shady network of overseas tax havens are set to be used by the EU as leverage to force concessions during Brexit trade talks, The Independent understands.

European Council members will soon review whether British territories previously left off a Brussels tax haven blacklist should now be added – just as negotiations move on to the all-important future trade deal.

According to one recent study by Berkeley academic Gabriel Zucman, there is £1.4tn of “off shore wealth” located in the UK, Isle of Man, Jersey, Guernsey, Bermuda and Cayman Islands alone.

A European Commission source said it was “significant” that none of the territories were mentioned in the joint EU-UK report setting out the phase one Brexit agreement last month.

The UK has always protected them in the past. That is not going to happen in future

European Commission official They went on: “The UK has always protected them in the past. That is not going to happen in future. We will go after them.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/09/brexiters-put-money-offshore-tax-haven

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018/03/01/the-uk-cannot-afford-sir-james-dysons-anti-competitive-aspirations/

https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2016/06/23/secret-billionaires-behind-eu-referendum-propaganda/

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/paq99k/a-millionaire-who-funded-brexit-made-a-killing-as-carillion-crashed

http://truepublica.org.uk/contributor-news/how-brexit-was-engineered-by-foreign-billionaires-to-bring-about-economic-chaos-for-profit/

https://circusbuoy.wordpress.com/2017/07/14/why-tax-avoiding-billionaires-want-britain-outside-the-eu/

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86556

https://whatwouldvirchowdo.wordpress.com/2015/09/24/weve-found-jeremy-hunts-book-and-yes-he-does-want-to-privatise-the-nhs/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britannia_Unchained

https://alastaircampbell.org/2018/08/the-book-that-helps-you-better-understand-brexit-and-rees-mogg-part-2/

Redwood
https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/11/12/british-lawmaker-advises-investors-to-take-their-money-out-of-the-uk/#417ed2774c1

Ashcroft
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/29/lord-ashcroft-praises-malta-as-base-for-uk-business-during-brexit

Lawson
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/31/brexiter-nigel-lawson-applies-french-residency-vote-leave

Ress-Mogg
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/jacob-rees-mogg-second-irish-fund-scm

Ratcliffe
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/jim-ratcliffe-brexit-uk-richest-man-monaco-move-tax-haven-eu-leave-a8484211.html

Farage
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/12/nigel-farage-eu-salary-docked-claim-misspent-public-funds?CMP=share_btn_fb

Baker
http://uk.businessinsider.com/steve-baker-glint-pay-buy-gold-to-avoid-impact-of-brexit-no-deal-sterling-2018-8?IR=T

And we all know about Dyson ...

 

 

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HOLA4422
5 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Sure, some are but you're concentrating on the smaller number of Brexit supporting people at the top and ignoring the much bigger Remain group who rather like the EU environment. Both are neoliberal scum, but the majority of the money up there leans towards the EU - clearly more of them think that the EU best provides the environment where they fester the best.

I think you need to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is not for Joe Public, it's for the uber-wealthy - as my post above indicates.

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HOLA4423
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HOLA4424
19 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I think you need to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is not for Joe Public, it's for the uber-wealthy - as my post above indicates.

I'm afraid you've got that completely backwards - you're still ignoring the majority of uber-wealthy who are pro Remain. All you've done is demonstrate that not all of them are.

Remember that your beloved Conservative party is firmly pro Remain too.

Edited by Riedquat
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HOLA4425

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