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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

You disagree with my observation?

It’s temporary.

Everything in life is temporary, the WA allows for transition to last until 20xx and will inexorably lead to one of three outcomes:

  1. Permanent transition (another Norway option) i.e. a vassal state
  2. Full customs union  i.e. another form of vassal state
  3. Entering backstop i.e. vassal state with some freebies           

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12 minutes ago, yelims said:

What needs to reform is the UK

Yes, that too. But you're pointing that out as if it's a defence of the EU. It's an entirely separate issue. Problems with one thing do not justify another one's shortcomings.

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15 minutes ago, rollover said:

You have to admit that the strategy from beginning was about losing UK's status and backing the wrong horse.

 

You misunderstand. My point was that the politics is the essence of relations but the EU is a bureaucratic structure because the politics are assumed

They are in fact stated in the Solemn Declaration of the European Union of June 1983 which states that the objective is an ever closer union of peoples and states not just peoples as was in the Treaty of Rome 1957.

A union of "peoples" is a natural, organic process; a union of states is not; it is a proactive political process.

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51 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Everything in life is temporary, the WA allows for transition to last until 20xx and will inexorably lead to one of three outcomes:

  1. Permanent transition (another Norway option) i.e. a vassal state
  2. Full customs union  i.e. another form of vassal state
  3. Entering backstop i.e. vassal state with some freebies           

Are you sure you know how the EEA works?  A CU would only be for EU members..a non member cannot be in a CU.  It’s a red herring anyway.  Labour say they want one without having the first idea what it does.

Edited by Dave Beans

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58 minutes ago, yelims said:

What needs to reform is the UK, there is a serious lack of democracy which contributed to the Leave vote

  • Proportional representation (Ireland) vs First past the post (UK) leads to two 2 party polarization, killing compromise and makes rainbow coalitions (which most of rest of eu has) hard, instead of consensus politics you get adversarial politics similar to US
  • No constitution in UK clearly outlining the rights of citizens (you are still subjects of the crown)
  • Hereditary head of state instead of elected President (like Ireland, where we just had an election for one, which opened up quite a bit of dialogue about what sort of country we want to be)
  • Higher house compromised of unelected lords, compare that to the Senate in Ireland
  • Lower house compromised of pig******ers who go to same elite schools, compare to Ireland where the Dail is representative of the nation
  • No independent referendum commission whose job is to ensure there are no ******ing lies in referenda on both sides
  • No history of referendums to amend said constitution

 

But instead of politically reforming the UK, it is wasting years on this Brexit nonsense

people in UK project their dissatisfaction with their own undemocratic system where they are subjects (in a medieval sense) onto the EU, this coupled with complete lack of understand of how the EU works https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/04/theresa-may-did-not-understand-eu-when-she-triggered-brexit

the issue i have with the Dail is there are too many TDs, and there is a history of independents having way too much power for one seat, .e.g Jackie Healey Rae!. it is a better system than first past the post though, but that will never be pushed by labour or Torys

Edited by hurlerontheditch

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6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Are you sure you know how the EEA works?  A CU would only be for EU members..a non member cannot be in a CU.  It’s a red herring anyway.

I know but its Labour's policy and in the seemingly unlikely circumstance of them being power they will try to go down that route, if some CU based  fudge is not possible, and wouldn't solve the backstop problem anyway, it will push us towards one of the other two. I cannot actually see us leaving transition unless it's via a second referendum and a vote to Remain.

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Just now, Confusion of VIs said:

I know but its Labour's policy and in the seemingly unlikely circumstance of them being power they will try to go down that route, if some CU based  fudge is not possible, and wouldn't solve the backstop problem anyway, it will push us towards one of the other two. I cannot actually see us leaving transition unless it's via a second referendum and a vote to Remain.

Within the transition we’d be a third country, so if we ever wanted to go back in, it would be via article 49.

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1 hour ago, yelims said:

What needs to reform is the UK, there is a serious lack of democracy which contributed to the Leave vote

  • Proportional representation (Ireland) vs First past the post (UK) leads to two 2 party polarization, killing compromise and makes rainbow coalitions (which most of rest of eu has) hard, instead of consensus politics you get adversarial politics similar to US
  • No constitution in UK clearly outlining the rights of citizens (you are still subjects of the crown)
  • Hereditary head of state instead of elected President (like Ireland, where we just had an election for one, which opened up quite a bit of dialogue about what sort of country we want to be)
  • Higher house compromised of unelected lords, compare that to the Senate in Ireland
  • Lower house compromised of pig******ers who go to same elite schools, compare to Ireland where the Dail is representative of the nation
  • No independent referendum commission whose job is to ensure there are no ******ing lies in referenda on both sides
  • No history of referendums to amend said constitution

 

But instead of politically reforming the UK, it is wasting years on this Brexit nonsense

people in UK project their dissatisfaction with their own undemocratic system where they are subjects (in a medieval sense) onto the EU, this coupled with complete lack of understand of how the EU works https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/04/theresa-may-did-not-understand-eu-when-she-triggered-brexit

What is notable about this is that it calls for radical reform of the UK political system and yet says that we waste time on Brexit instead, implying that we should stay in the EU and concentrate on internal reform.

The unconcious irony on this is that this implicitly asumes we are a sovereign nation but we should continue to belong to an entity whose political objective is to circumscribe our ability to make those very reforms.

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23 minutes ago, crouch said:

What is notable about this is that it calls for radical reform of the UK political system and yet says that we waste time on Brexit instead, implying that we should stay in the EU and concentrate on internal reform.

The unconcious irony on this is that this implicitly asumes we are a sovereign nation but we should continue to belong to an entity whose political objective is to circumscribe our ability to make those very reforms.

No the EU isn't circumscribing the UK's ability to make constitutional reform internally at all.  It dramatically impacts our statute law and governmental policy choices in many areas but not our constitutional structure (within the bounds of commonly accepted democratic principles).  It didn't even intervene when we did the Scottish referendum.

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1 hour ago, ElPapasito said:

No the EU isn't circumscribing the UK's ability to make constitutional reform internally at all.  It dramatically impacts our statute law and governmental policy choices in many areas but not our constitutional structure (within the bounds of commonly accepted democratic principles).  It didn't even intervene when we did the Scottish referendum.

You think not?

The Eurozone has 19 members. Here are two quotes:

"We want the politcal unification of Europe. If there is no monetary union, then there cannot be political union"

Chancellor Kohl 1995

"The single currency is a strongly federalising element. The opponents of a federal Europe are right about that. It is my conviction that the Euro will lead to a European economic government"

Karel van Miert, European Commissioner for Competition - magazine interview 1997.

This is still the political objective of the EU. If this objective does not impact our constitutional structure then I don't know what will. Now if that objective fails then it means the end of the EU, because the EU is based on that objective; if it succeeds then those internal reforms will count for nothing. I am placing the "ability" in the context of that political objective.

Now you may say that we can achieve reform now because the objective has not yet been reached. As one of the points is change from a monarchy to a republic and reform of the HOL this would require a revolution and, barring that, a political union of EU member states looks a much more nearer prospect.

Edited by crouch

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50 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Within the transition we’d be a third country, so if we ever wanted to go back in, it would be via article 49.

I would doubt that, our legal status has already been fudged to let us retain access to EU only trade deals etc and I am sure I recall Tusk saying he would welcome a change of heart during any transition period.

The reality is if there is a will to let us Remain a way will be found. Of course it is possible we will burn so many boats that we are not wanted back but that is maybe a different issue.

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12 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Dozens of ships were turned around because of Trumps tariffs, so why do you find it hard to believe a ship would be turned around because of Brexit.

In any case the big loss is JLR's plans to invest £80bn in making the UK its global centre of EV production, that could have given the UK the critical mass needed to be a major player in the new all electric world.  

 

I thought we were awaiting a big announcement from JLR about major investment?

On the ship turning round point, it's different from the Trump/China thing.  That was a sudden announcement and involved lots of traders.  The Honda thing was purely internal to Honda, something they must've been planning for many months.  I have doubts the Japanese are so inefficient and I doubt we have the full story on this one.

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12 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Dozens of ships were turned around because of Trumps tariffs, so why do you find it hard to believe a ship would be turned around because of Brexit.

In any case the big loss is JLR's plans to invest £80bn in making the UK its global centre of EV production, that could have given the UK the critical mass needed to be a major player in the new all electric world.  

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47420267

Jaguar Land Rover plans big UK investment

...sources close to the company and the government told the BBC that news of fresh investment in the UK was imminent.

...A story given absolutely no prominence by the BBC.

 

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14 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I would doubt that, our legal status has already been fudged to let us retain access to EU only trade deals etc and I am sure I recall Tusk saying he would welcome a change of heart during any transition period.

The reality is if there is a will to let us Remain a way will be found. Of course it is possible we will burn so many boats that we are not wanted back but that is maybe a different issue.

Got a reference for that by any chance?  It would also have to go before the 27.  Moreover it would resolve nothing over the general malaise people have over the EU.  It would reinforce their suspicions.

Edited by Dave Beans

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1 hour ago, Dave Beans said:

Are you sure you know how the EEA works?  A CU would only be for EU members..a non member cannot be in a CU.  It’s a red herring anyway.  Labour say they want one without having the first idea what it does.

Turkey has a separate customs union with the EU. It isn't a member.

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32 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I would doubt that, our legal status has already been fudged to let us retain access to EU only trade deals etc and I am sure I recall Tusk saying he would welcome a change of heart during any transition period.

The reality is if there is a will to let us Remain a way will be found. Of course it is possible we will burn so many boats that we are not wanted back but that is maybe a different issue.

Our glorious leader is an expert in burning boats, and bridges!

I was in France when she became PM and I mentioned to a French friend that we had a new PM, to which he replied "Yes, and have you seen her shoes?" So the French have the measure of her too.

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13 minutes ago, copydude said:

Turkey has a separate customs union with the EU. It isn't a member.

It’s in a customs union but not the customs union. It has to adhere to the common external tariff in many areas.

Edited by Dave Beans

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This from the DT -it's "premium" so you may not be able to read it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/05/emmanuel-macron-now-poses-bigger-risk-eu-brexit/

A paragraph:

"But Mr Macron has stripped that veil away by calling for a “multi-speed” Europe as he seeks to distract attention from the Yellow Vest protests at home and pressure from the Eurosceptic National Rallyby depicting himself as the champion of a new, reformed EU led by and for France."

A multi speed Europe has been around for about thirty years under the name of "concentric circles" and "variable geometry". It sounds very practical but it would actually sound the death knell of the EU. He is tilting against the "arriviste" nations that have recently joined the EU but he pitches his proposal as one of reform but, paradoxically, it actually recognises the existence of a more fractious EU that may be incapable of reform, but rather of disintegration.

Edited by crouch

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21 minutes ago, kzb said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47420267

Jaguar Land Rover plans big UK investment

...sources close to the company and the government told the BBC that news of fresh investment in the UK was imminent.

...A story given absolutely no prominence by the BBC.

 

Fresh investment, my ****. It's the bribe that Spreadsheet and May were going to give Nissan and Honda.

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2 minutes ago, crouch said:

This from the DT -it's "premium" so you may not be able to read it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/05/emmanuel-macron-now-poses-bigger-risk-eu-brexit/

A paragraph:

"But Mr Macron has stripped that veil away by calling for a “multi-speed” Europe as he seeks to distract attention from the Yellow Vest protests at home and pressure from the Eurosceptic National Rallyby depicting himself as the champion of a new, reformed EU led by and for France."

A multi speed Europe has been around for about thirty years under the name of "concentric circles" and "variable geometry". It sounds very practical but it would actually sound the death knell of the EU. He is tilting against the "arriviste" nations that have recently joined the EU but he pitches his proposal as one of reform but, paradoxically, it actually recognises the existence of a more fractious EU that may be incapable of reform, but rather of disintegration.

Without a doubt, pretty much everything that Macron says and does has something to do with the "Yellow Vests". He's as slippery as Theresa May.

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7 minutes ago, crouch said:

This from the DT -it's "premium" so you may not be able to read it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/05/emmanuel-macron-now-poses-bigger-risk-eu-brexit/

A paragraph:

"But Mr Macron has stripped that veil away by calling for a “multi-speed” Europe as he seeks to distract attention from the Yellow Vest protests at home and pressure from the Eurosceptic National Rallyby depicting himself as the champion of a new, reformed EU led by and for France."

A multi speed Europe has been around for about thirty years under the name of "concentric circles" and "variable geometry". It sounds very practical but it would actually sound the death knell of the EU. He is tilting against the "arriviste" nations that have recently joined the EU but he pitches his proposal as one of reform but, paradoxically, it actually recognises the existence of a more fractious EU that may be incapable of reform, but rather of disintegration.

I've skimmed through Macron's speech and I am unable to detect any reference to concentric circles or variable geometry.

Quite the reverse.  He proposes setting up god knows how many more EU regulatory agencies to centralise the agenda.

Read for yourselves:

https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2019/03/04/for-european-renewal.en

 

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10 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Fresh investment, my ****. It's the bribe that Spreadsheet and May were going to give Nissan and Honda.

Even so, it's still welcome is it not?  Perhaps the state should put in money, seeing as it requires some pretty massive changes of the industry.

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23 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Got a reference for that by any chance?  It would also have to go before the 27.  Moreover it would resolve nothing over the general malaise people have over the EU.  It would reinforce their suspicions.

No just something I recall from maybe 6 months ago but could not find it in quick search I think it was during a Q and A, when after expressing his desire for the UK to change its mind he was asked if this would be possible once we enter transition and said it would be possible.

Yes it would have to get the support/or at least acceptance of all the 27 but without this we wouldn't be able to rejoin anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, kzb said:

I've skimmed through Macron's speech and I am unable to detect any reference to concentric circles or variable geometry.

Quite the reverse.  He proposes setting up god knows how many more EU regulatory agencies to centralise the agenda.

Read for yourselves:

https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2019/03/04/for-european-renewal.en

 

No you won't because they were not there. What I'm saying is that the notion of a two speed Europe is an old one that went under the names of "concentric circles" and "variable geometry". "Concentirc circles" = "variable geometry" = "two speed Europe". He is resurrecting an old idea.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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