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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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47 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Not according to the definition of the term ‘liberal’.

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/liberal

Are you saying the liberals don't necessarily have to have a particular position on liberalism, or that they necessarily oppose immigration?

49 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

And before you say go anywhere in the EU; then you are missing the illiberal (according to your definition) behaviour of the EU to people from the rest of the world (ie no borders to anyone).

I'm not arguing the EU is has a liberal immigration policy and I'm not defending the EU about this or other matters. Clearly the EU is not liberal. I don't think you can find a liberal state since WWI.

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1 hour ago, Fromage Frais said:

Interesting.

I am all for the Norway option (efta/EEA) but not with CU which brings us back to the Irish problem again.

I am an 80/20 kind of guy and I hate trying to solve a complex issue in one deal or phase which is mays mistake.  

I would have gone right to EFTA/EEA plan then put in article 50 so 2 years cold have been spend fighting over the CU issue.  After that EFTA would be quite powerful and we could see what we could do as a team to improve the EEA deal/Migration etc.

There are main different reasons why certain people voted for brexit but I like to simply it to 3.

Sovereignty 

Trade

Immigration

Now in the spirit of compromise I would think that you can loose one of those or bend them but not 2/3.

My pillar that I would have compromised would have been freedom of movement as the low £ and rising wages in the East mean that we may very well have completed this phase of migration.  This plus being very hardline on immigration and asylum like Norway + full EAA restrictions  would lead to a reduction in immigration and especially non eu illegal migrants/asylum seekers which lets be honest are what voters really want less off imho.

The labour policy ads a customs union on that so no trade deals or efta membership.  So 2 out of 3 benefits gone.

But respectfully I do not agree with where you think this is headed.  Why would a conservative pm breakup the Tory party? 

Circa 70% of their voters want to leave many of the rebels are getting flack from their members why would they break up when they are delivering what their members want?

JC's gambit is great news he is being forced off the fence this now means the conservatives have to offer something different to him lest he looks like the guy with the plan.

We now have Labour = Norway Plus which may stand a good chance as you say with the remain leaning mps as they would love brino.

So now the Conservatives will have to have a different plan softer....no way.

they have to go harder and at this point if it looks like brino in parliament any folks who bring down the government > GE to prevent it passing will be heroes to the membership and then forgiven when the new leader comes in.

A general election Norway plus + socialism vs efta/eea efta/cta the public can choose.

Also even if the EU like labours plan (why not) the WA is still cannot be signed with the backstop a) the backstop can still screw Norway plus if talks break down and b) the backstop may be ruled illegal sooner rather than later.

 

   

 

 

Keeping the UK in the SM and customs union would solve the Irish question, negate any economic benefits of leaving through ongoing regulatory/customs alignment as well as guarantee substantial annual budgetary contributions from the UK on top of the £39 bln. As this is a great deal for the EU, I don't imagine there would be the risk of the backstop being triggered if the UK makes a formal commitment to 'Norway Plus' in the political declaration, hence allaying fears of many crypto remainers queasy about the backstop.

In his letter, Jezza appears to offer implicit support to the WA if May accepts his demands, which are largely consistent with EFTA+CU. Whilst it's politically tricky for May to run with 'JC's plan' as it would make her look inept and most likely split her party I suspect she is past caring at this point. In fact I think she is so stubborn and bloody minded she wouldn't think twice before breaking up her party in order to get her sodden deal through.She knows fully well she is finished politically and is only concerned about her legacy as the PM who delivered Brexit.

May recognises that neither the EU nor hardliners within her party,DUP are likely to budge from their respective positions and the only way she can get her withdrawal agreement through, which is all she really cares about as she won't be around to negotiate the future trade agreement, is by courting labour votes. If you do the maths, there are enough votes between labour, tory open+crypto remainers+ nats etc to carry this with a comfortable majority. Brexiteers can go hard as they like, try and collapse the government etc but this is what we'll get eventually. 

As for EE immigration, I agree with point made by crouch earlier that being fully out of the SM would give us discretion to control it if it ever became a problem in the future (over 2 million Ukrainians have moved to Poland and Hungary in the last few years to replace those who came here in the past decade so the flow of migrants from East to West is likely to continue once Brexit uncertainties are lifted). Non EU immigration is a bit of a red herring as it largely consists of international students who make a large net contribution to the economy.

Edited by thirdwave

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15 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Can you define liberalism? Can you give an example of a liberal? Can you find a liberal talking about immigration?

I still don't know what this refers to:

"Is that an animal farm 1984 definition of liberty double speak which only applies to EU citizens but the rest of the world is restricted from entry into the gated community with hard border immigration?"

You said this in response to my question about how favouring "individual liberty" relates to restrictions on liberty.

I already linked to a definition.

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8 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Who's going to do that?

Cameron and Osborne promised to do it but chickened out and pumped up the housing bubble some more. What's his name, the current joker of the exchequer keeps telling us he's fixed it, but he would, wouldn't he. May is obsessed with her legacy... "Delivering Brexit" and does precious little else (which is one small mercy) :rolleyes:.

Cable knows what needs doing but got sidetracked sniffing the leather in his ministerial car, so did nothing when he had the chance.

And then there's Corbyn.... What hope have we got?

A radical change of direction is the only hope we've got. Cable talked the talk. Corbyn might yet be able to walk the walk.

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1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

Put simply, it does not constitute a plan. It is merely a suggestion, one of many in fact.  It is not unanimously accepted and supported by the UK or rigorously vetted, not costed, not tested with the other party that will need to be a party to it..... need I go on.

It never constituted a plan... otherwise every man and his dog would claim to have a plan...but they would be no more so than that which you have provided a link to...... it is a merely a suggestion, an idea.... tiz all.

Where was the plan? A plan need to be agreed by those who have the power to implement it... otherwise it is just a fantasy.....

 

You were saying that Leavers in general had no plan.  They did.  Many of them in fact, but all related. 

None of them were used as a model for our negotiation position.   If we had chosen to do that, the vetting and testing could have followed, to firm things up.  This should've been done before we started.

But really you are making the same argument that Davis was making about the 2nd ref options, which of course you disagreed with....

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45 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Great post.

I think we agree there are 2 strata of motivations at play. One is the supplicant. The religious Joe on the street. The other being the puppet master. This extends to the herding of ideologies as well. Cults, football fans, politics and iPhone users 🙂

Now I agree too about Blair. This is what I was saying. Capitalism masked as liberalism. It's strange as he seems to have been corrupted in his second term. Started so well and then submitted to lizard-ism. I wonder if this is what power is guaranteed to do now? His religion might have played a major part as well. In Bush Junior he found a dangerous playmate. The archetypal religious neo-con playmate. Hand in hand towards heaven.

Immigration was the fuse for Brexit. But was entirely self-inflicted. I am far from a thermos-dynamics expert, but yes, the influx was too high. My beef is that the home-grown politcians who caused it and all the other problems are getting away with purposeful sleight-of-hand while not giving a toss about the country or its people.

So finally - we agree on the corruption of capitalism? But who's more bent? Our lot I would say. I prefer European values to those of the USA, Russia or China.

 

I think there is an unfortunate consequence to man's yearning towards something greater: the conclusion is reached that there must exist this perfect state of bliss & also that some greater being must have created the demi-paradise we inhabit - so why are we denied Nirvana? Why have we been cast out?

The answer is we must have sinned. So we try to make amends, to purge ourselves of our faults so we may re-enter the Garden Of Eden.

However, no matter how hard we try, we suffer, we die, the people we love suffer & die: how can this be? We have not sinned, we have been virtuous & good, so why do we suffer?

Only one answer. Them. The sinners. We are being punished for not purging the sinners amongst us. Only one solution to this ...

You can see where this is going.

 

I don't agree our politicians are more bent BTW. I reckon our system is far more open than most European ones (I have to say corruption seems to increase the further south you go) & the EU in particular has far too much inbuilt secrecy & unaccountability built into it. Look at this forum! We freely & openly denigrate & mock our leaders. Is this the case on mainland Europe? I'm not sure - but I'm pretty sure if you tried disparaging France & her history on a French forum the way we do to England over here you'd get very short shrift.

There was an interview with Sebastian Faulks on radio 3 a few months ago where he was eulogising the Citroen DS. He is a convinced Francophile but he said it was interesting to compare the answers you'd get from an Englishman to a Frenchman if you asked them about historic world achievements in art, literature, science etc. The Englishman would say, well we've produced a few good poets, authors, not first rank composers Like Mozart, Bach or Beethoven, some excellent scientists; the Frenchman would say

what are you talking about? What question is there to answer?

It's the French. Every time. In everything.

And he wouldn't be joking either.

 

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18 minutes ago, kzb said:

You were saying that Leavers in general had no plan.  They did.  Many of them in fact, but all related. 

None of them were used as a model for our negotiation position.   If we had chosen to do that, the vetting and testing could have followed, to firm things up.  This should've been done before we started.

But really you are making the same argument that Davis was making about the 2nd ref options, which of course you disagreed with....

Your comprehension skills appear to be suspect. Lots of disparate 'plans' do not constitute 'a plan'. And a plan that is not in the hands of those empowered td enact it is not a plan at all.

DD.... simply says that there can be no such thing as a plan..... because he's a 'make it up as you go along' kind of guy.....the type with a special place in hell ☺️

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Know of several people who have rented all their lives in UK, coming up to retirement, unable to buy in the UK who now live happily and have bought an affordable home they can call their own in the EU......their small pension is being transferred, value month to month variable......out of the EU in future their freedom of choice is unknown ........ other people in the future may no longer have that choice or freedom unless wealthy enough to be able to afford both the taxes or the health cover........therefore only choice is to rent forever in the UK......born with nothing, die with nothing, dependant on help of others.😉

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10 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Your comprehension skills appear to be suspect. Lots of disparate 'plans' do not constitute 'a plan'. And a plan that is not in the hands of those empowered td enact it is not a plan at all.

DD.... simply says that there can be no such thing as a plan..... because he's a 'make it up as you go along' kind of guy.....the type with a special place in hell ☺️

I'll leave others to judge each of our comprehension skills.    I'm not going to bore everyone explaining every detail which I think is obvious to everyone.  We're going round in circles here and there are some better posts coming in recently.

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Within the EU we all have the whole of the EU to choose from to travel to or make our home, same rules, same regulations, treated the same........equal until no longer equal.....but different......our world just gets smaller, unless can afford it.😉

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1 minute ago, winkie said:

Within the EU we all have the whole of the EU to choose from to travel to or make our home, same rules, same regulations, treated the same........equal until no longer equal.....but different......our world just gets smaller, unless can afford it.😉

Most emigrating Brits still go to Oz or USA.

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4 minutes ago, kzb said:

I'll leave others to judge each of our comprehension skills.    I'm not going to bore everyone explaining every detail which I think is obvious to everyone.  We're going round in circles here and there are some better posts coming in recently.

It's not difficult. You think the link you have provided is a credible plan. I am saying it is not and I give my reasons. You have not countered my reasons...therefore I conclude you don't have a defense. Simple.

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54 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I already linked to a definition.

If you want to use terms in specialised subjects correctly, you'll have to consult specialised books. I think liberalism requiring open borders is implied by the definition you supplied, but if you read books that go into more detail (a book on liberalism, or political philosophy more generally), you would find the argument made explicitly.

Edited by Kosmin

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11 minutes ago, kzb said:

Most emigrating Brits still go to Oz or USA.

  • No they don't.....you try getting a green card for the US, the Aussies only want the young and future productive unless have relatives or cash, older people a higher probable strain on the health service, forget it......thousands move to live and work in  Europe......like living in UK but only next door, a £35 flight or not that much more of less than two hours away.....people commute more than that by train for up to double that.😉
Edited by winkie

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3 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

It's not difficult. You think the link you have provided is a credible plan. I am saying it is not and I give my reasons. You have not countered my reasons...therefore I conclude you don't have a defense. Simple.

No, what I was saying was, our negotiation was not based on that plan, or anything like it, when it should have been

It didn't need all the details, that is what you sort out when you negotiate.

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11 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

If you want to use terms in specialised subjects correctly, you'll have to consult specialised books. I think liberalism requiring open borders is implied by the definition you supplied, but if you read books that go into more detail (a book on liberalism, or political philosophy more generally), you would find the argument made explicitly.

Ok let’s run with that definition for now.

Two questions:

Is FOM a liberal concept?

Is controlled immigration illiberal?

(a simple yes/no will suffice).

Edited by GrizzlyDave

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Quote

 

Jeremy Corbyn's Brexit plan 'promising', Donald Tusk tells Theresa May

The exchange came in what the prime minister described as "robust but constructive" talks with EU leaders in Brussels. The EU's Donald Tusk has told Theresa May that Jeremy Corbyn's Brexit plan offers a "promising way out" of the current Brexit stalemate.

Sky

 

It looks like it will be May's way Corbyn's Brexit, and EU leaders like it.

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17 minutes ago, rollover said:

 

It looks like it will be May's way Corbyn's Brexit, and EU leaders like it.

Looking more prime-ministerial by the day, isn't he?

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52 minutes ago, winkie said:
  • No they don't.....you try getting a green card for the US, the Aussies only want the young and future productive unless have relatives or cash, older people a higher probable strain on the health service, forget it......thousands move to live and work in  Europe......like living in UK but only next door, a £35 flight or not that much more of less than two hours away.....people commute more than that by train for up to double that.😉

Australian retirement visa was abolished last year. 

https://expatra.com/how-to-retire-to-australia/

You will need $1.5million in cash  at least 

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1 minute ago, zugzwang said:

Looking more prime-ministerial by the day, isn't he?

Odious man, as bad as May. 

A GE featuring that pair makes a USofE look tempting. Is this really the best we can do?

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6 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Odious man, as bad as May. 

A GE featuring that pair makes a USofE look tempting. Is this really the best we can do?

Who would you like as PM then?

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2 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Who would you like as PM then?

What a difficult question, given the current batch of career politicians.

If you'd asked me that ten years ago I'd have said David Davis without hesitation, but he's 70 now and not as dynamic as he was.

Is there anyone who stands for everything that May doesn't? Anti-authoritarian and big on small government.

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54 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Ok let’s run with that definition for now.

I'm still intrigued by your earlier claim, that controlling immigration isn't illiberal.

1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Is FOM a liberal concept?

Yes.

55 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Is controlled immigration illiberal?

Yes.

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1 minute ago, Kosmin said:

I'm still intrigued by your earlier claim, that controlling immigration isn't illiberal.

Yes.

Yes.

So if you consider FOM is liberal and Controlled Immigration is illiberal; do you advocate the EU becoming more liberal and extending FOM to the whole of planet earth?

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  • 349 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



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