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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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10 minutes ago, APerson said:

If the vote is held repeatedly until remain wins, then it is never held again all it takes is one slipup on leaves part and its over.

What's a "slipup"? 2 million leave voters accidentally putting an X in the wrong box?

How do you know the 2016 referendum wasn't a "slipup"?

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4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

This has long term costs and implications for the UK, as EU workers on average bring less dependants with them and are more likely to return home than other migrants.  

Whatever, very little thought has been given to people impacted by this.

As an anecdote, I was in and out of Stansted a few times over New Year. My airport shuttles and bus drivers were: Romanian, Polish, Portugese, Albanian and Irish. 

36 minutes ago, crouch said:

An informal alliance has recently been formed between the populist parties in France, Italy and Poland to fight the european parliament elections in May. It is quite likely that eurosceptic parties will comprise more than 30% of the seats in the new parliament and the overarching policy will be to press for a change in direction away from a supranational state to a europe of nations. 

As regards Macron he is a busted flush and Merkel will be out soon.

I hope you are right but there remains the Lisbon treaty which toughens up as time goes on.

The European Parliament is unfortunately quite impotent.

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6 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

What's a "slipup"? 2 million leave voters accidentally putting an X in the wrong box?

How do you know the 2016 referendum wasn't a "slipup"?

You don't of course, so maybe it should've been a best of three, but that would've needed deciding in advance. Ideally you need to know what the general trend is, without being swayed by a chance crossing of the line but to do that fairly absolutely requires not changing the criteria once the vote is underway.

9 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The promised Leave that secured 52% of the vote cannot be delivered. The voters are now being offered something very different, surely that alone justifies a second vote.

The only promised leave was to not be a member of the EU. It was up to everyone voting to decide how they'd like that to look and consider the likelihood of their preferred version actually happening, and of other possibilities. That is no different from any vote.

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30 minutes ago, APerson said:

If the vote is held repeatedly until remain wins, then it is never held again all it takes is one slipup on leaves part and its over.

Conversely, had Remain won the first time there would be no prospect of a second referendum for at least a generation.

I think the whole business is double standards. You can't tell the Scots they have one chance in a lifetime to vote for independence from the UK and then give them two goes at leaving the EU.

I don't know about 'slip up' but I wouldn't like to chance the outcome. Mrs May's 'landslide' election was a huge miscalculation.

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21 minutes ago, copydude said:

Whatever, very little thought has been given to people impacted by this.

As an anecdote, I was in and out of Stansted a few times over New Year. My airport shuttles and bus drivers were: Romanian, Polish, Portugese, Albanian and Irish. 

I hope you are right but there remains the Lisbon treaty which toughens up as time goes on.

The European Parliament is unfortunately quite impotent.

I appreciate that the EP does not have huge powers but it is a political body based on representation and does have a voice by virtue of that.

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One aspect of the current parliamentary chaos not much mentioned is Labour's dillemma.  On the face of it May is making such a hash of it and looks like the worst leader the Tories ever had, possibly a PM on a par with Neville Chamberlain.  So Labour can't help themselves in directling events towards a new general election.  Their solution to ALL problems is to call for a GE.  They think the electorate will punish May massively, repeating and redoubling the beating they gave her for opportunistically calling the 2017 election.  Corbyn has an open goal to win a huge majority for himself they think.

I think they are wrong.  The electorate can see that Labour have no more unity of approach on Brexit than the Tories can muster.  They can see that forcing an election now is the worst of timing for the UK.  Many people think that between 3 options - no deal, May's deal and Remain that May's deal is the most nationally uniting of options, and that the ERG et al are overstating the drawbacks. 

So Labour could be outed for being self-interested politicos trying to snatch a win with no plan for any of our very real and urgent problems.  And people might think that now giving May the majority of May Deal supporting MPs is the only real solution.  So we could see Tories winning well where the tory challenger is pro - May deal.

So the GE might be able to resolve the Brexit log-jam swinging away from Remainers, hard Brexiteers and Labour.

(I myself would never vote for the Tories, but can see Labour are potentially misreading public opinion catastrophically)

Edited by ElPapasito

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3 minutes ago, ElPapasito said:

I think they are wrong.  The electorate can see that Labour have no more unity of approach on Brexit than the Tories can muster.  They can see that forcing an election now is the worst of timing for the UK. 

Agree . . . I think Corbyn is well aware of the potential backlash and has shown little appetite for the no-confidence vote. But as already polled, if he is seen as enabling May's deal, Labour would be crucified at a GE. He does not have a strong hand. 

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Dearlove and Guthrie urge Tories not to back May's deal...

A former head of MI6 has urged the Tories not to back Theresa May's Brexit deal over fears it threatens national security. 

A letter from Sir Richard Dearlove was sent to the group of top Tories on Tuesday, Sky News reports.

This letter, co-signed by former chief of defence staff Lord Guthrie, warns them that the current agreement "abrogates" the UK's security and puts parts of this in the control of "foreign hands". 

It then urged the chairs not to back the Prime Minister's plans and instead back a Brexit on World Trade Organisation rules. 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/exhead-of-mi6-urges-tory-chairs-not-to-back-mays-deal-as-it-threatens-national-security-a4035601.html

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1 hour ago, APerson said:

The argument really comes down to - are you a neo-liberal globalist who doesn't believe in the nation state or do you believe in nations.

All the arguments about which option is going to make us rich/poor are just each side trying to assert power.

I often wonder - what if we swapped all our remainers for all the leavers in another country and we formed a new nation?

Would both sides be more happy?

I think a nation of leavers would be more productive and successful then a nation of Remainers

They'd just bitch that someone from north of the nation was undercutting southerners wages.

Leavers need an other to hate and blame their problems on. It's Europe at the moment. It'll be someone else next. You think your views are new and special? Same as it ever was pal, the cycle repeats.

Edited by dugsbody

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1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

What's a "slipup"? 2 million leave voters accidentally putting an X in the wrong box?

How do you know the 2016 referendum wasn't a "slipup"?

Well, eventually if they keep running it one side will fail to turn out

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36 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Dearlove and Guthrie urge Tories not to back May's deal...

A former head of MI6 has urged the Tories not to back Theresa May's Brexit deal over fears it threatens national security. 

Well, it is the dirty tricks department.

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2 hours ago, APerson said:

The argument really comes down to - are you a neo-liberal globalist who doesn't believe in the nation state or do you believe in nations.

All the arguments about which option is going to make us rich/poor are just each side trying to assert power.

I often wonder - what if we swapped all our remainers for all the leavers in another country and we formed a new nation?

Would both sides be more happy?

I think a nation of leavers would be more productive and successful then a nation of Remainers

The 'B' ark solution??   :- )

 

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1 hour ago, ElPapasito said:

One aspect of the current parliamentary chaos not much mentioned is Labour's dillemma.  On the face of it May is making such a hash of it and looks like the worst leader the Tories ever had, possibly a PM on a par with Neville Chamberlain.  So Labour can't help themselves in directling events towards a new general election.  Their solution to ALL problems is to call for a GE.  They think the electorate will punish May massively, repeating and redoubling the beating they gave her for opportunistically calling the 2017 election.  Corbyn has an open goal to win a huge majority for himself they think.

I think they are wrong.  The electorate can see that Labour have no more unity of approach on Brexit than the Tories can muster.  They can see that forcing an election now is the worst of timing for the UK.  Many people think that between 3 options - no deal, May's deal and Remain that May's deal is the most nationally uniting of options, and that the ERG et al are overstating the drawbacks. 

So Labour could be outed for being self-interested politicos trying to snatch a win with no plan for any of our very real and urgent problems.  And people might think that now giving May the majority of May Deal supporting MPs is the only real solution.  So we could see Tories winning well where the tory challenger is pro - May deal.

So the GE might be able to resolve the Brexit log-jam swinging away from Remainers, hard Brexiteers and Labour.

(I myself would never vote for the Tories, but can see Labour are potentially misreading public opinion catastrophically)

Labours approach is a strange one.  They are demanding a customs union and a strong relationship with the single market - whatever that means.  You’re either in it or not.  It’s akin to buying a burger, throwing out the burger and eat the wrapping..

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3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

<EDIT>

NB No idea if this is significant or will ever surface as an option but I have a heard that some MP's are now discussing a third option, that is to revoke A50 without moving immediately to a second referendum and instead saying that the government will aim to address the issues that led to the Leave vote with a referendum to be held in 5 years time.   

I've said it before, if they would guarantee to put my terms and conditions (broadly speaking) back to 1973 I would trade that for a remain vote.

Also it is a good thing that they have moved on from calling us all ignorant racists and are now asking what they can do for us (ahem).

However I think this translates (at best) to "throw money at them to keep them quiet".  In other words they will borrow to spend on the NHS and other services so we don't get so upset about immigration.

This won't work on me I'm afraid. 

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3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

A true no deal would mean no further contact or trade with the EU. Clearly that is a nonsense, so no deal is just a different sort of deal. Nothing has been done to define what no deal would mean in practice and there would need to be many months/maybe years of negotiations to define the no deal deal. This has not been done so a no deal exit in March is not an option.

A registration system plus a minimum salary requirement and 4 year qualification period for benefits would achieve everything that the government is trying to do with its new immigration system and is allowable under existing FoM rules. in any case FoM is largely yesterdays problem. We are already having to actively recruit workers from further afield to make up for a lack of EU workers,  and the problems of benefits tourism can be dealt with under FoM rules

You are probably right, the EU is now much too large for ever closer union to progress. The UK should be leading the move to a Europe of Nations from within not leaving.    

Yes.

On 'no deal' I think all that is meant is crashing out without a WA and trying to pick up the pieces from outside the EU as if we'd just landed from outer space.

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Labour did unexpectedly well last time, because the electorate thought brexit was done with, and labour actually had some policies separate from brexit.

 

I suspect brexit will be back at the forefront if there's a GE anytime soon. No idea who that'll benefit.

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3 hours ago, APerson said:

The argument really comes down to - are you a neo-liberal globalist who doesn't believe in the nation state or do you believe in nations.

All the arguments about which option is going to make us rich/poor are just each side trying to assert power.

I often wonder - what if we swapped all our remainers for all the leavers in another country and we formed a new nation?

Would both sides be more happy?

I think a nation of leavers would be more productive and successful then a nation of Remainers

Yeah go tell that to the Scottish.

Oz would be a lovely place for Leavers, just click your heels ;)

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5 hours ago, jonb2 said:

I don't see what an election will achieve. How is it going to change the dynamics? You could say the different manifestos - but considering all the politicians live in the land of Narnia, it won't change the time wasting log jam decision making. It's a delay tactic and it's highly likely the Tories will win it, which means we will have burned time and be exactly where we were before.

It seems to me to be a useless option. Parliament cannot sort it. So it's either the default or another referendum.

Vote Tory you come out of SM, end FOM and leave the EU as a member state. Grieve, Soubry et al deselected.

Labour will be forced to commit either way on the above.

Lib Dem remain.

There's your choice.

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2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

No 10 saying it's rubbish. I wonder who's lying, I'd be surprised if Guthrie would tell porkies.

Disinfo is their business. I wouldn't trust any of them to tell me the time.

It's naughty though, whether correct or no. Did TM cross swords with them when she was Home Sec? 

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5 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

NB No idea if this is significant or will ever surface as an option but I have a heard that some MP's are now discussing a third option, that is to revoke A50 without moving immediately to a second referendum and instead saying that the government will aim to address the issues that led to the Leave vote with a referendum to be held in 5 years time.   

The ECJ have made it clear that we can only revoke with an unambiguous declaration of intent - I don't think they'll be impressed with talk of an imminent in/out referendum.

Dorkins' projections on possible re-entry are more pragmatic, in my view.

But we have to leave. And we will be out, not in any fudged/fluid membership, during transition, we will be a third country.

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2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

No 10 saying it's rubbish. I wonder who's lying, I'd be surprised if Guthrie would tell porkies.

Not sure about that, after all he is in the disinformation business and a spy who wouldn't tell lies wouldn't be a very good spy.

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2 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Labours approach is a strange one.  They are demanding a customs union and a strong relationship with the single market - whatever that means.  You’re either in it or not.  It’s akin to buying a burger, throwing out the burger and eat the wrapping..

I see no approach at all.

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1 hour ago, Steppenpig said:

Labour did unexpectedly well last time, because the electorate thought brexit was done with, and labour actually had some policies separate from brexit.

 

I suspect brexit will be back at the forefront if there's a GE anytime soon. No idea who that'll benefit.

Why do you think Labour won in Kensington last time?

I put it down to a protest vote by angry remainers who thought there was no chance of a Labour victory. I'm not sure they'll vote that way again.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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