Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Bruce Banner]

1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

I'm pretty much with you on this....xcept that I also don't mind May's deal so I think it should also be an option on a 2nd ref.

The thing I am most concerned about is that we are currently either going  to Hard Brexit or May's deal, neither one of these would, in my view, have won a majority if specifically included as an option in the original referendum. 

GD has nailed his colours to the mast. He is not interested in democracy.

Me too, I really don't like it but it is an option so it should definitely be on a 2nd referendum. 

[rollover]

4 hours ago, crouch said:

Revoke A50 to do what precisely?

Remain!

[rollover]

4 hours ago, thehowler said:

Have you noticed the MPs in the House who are breaking with their parties to resist a no deal option? They are the majority.

They will never give you a no deal option on a ballot paper.

Why not?

It could be the last throw of the dice before all the Brexit adventure go fully belly up.

[GrizzlyDave]

13 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I'm pretty much with you on this....xcept that I also don't mind May's deal so I think it should also be an option on a 2nd ref.

The thing I am most concerned about is that we are currently either going  to Hard Brexit or May's deal, neither one of these would, in my view, have won a majority if specifically included as an option in the original referendum. 

GD has nailed his colours to the mast. He is not interested in democracy.

What a stupid comment.

[IMHAL]

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

What a stupid comment.

I say it as I see it.

We have a May minority solution that no one supports and no one would have voted for. That's not democracy.

Hard Brexit would have not seen the light of day had it been seen as THE serious option on the referendum.

So how did we get here?........Brexit 'the rainbow and unicorn' trojan horse everything to every man option was put out there when what was on offer and inside the trojan horse was the tardy May's deal or the even more dangerous Hard Brexit deal.

You know all this so don't come all innocent with me.

 

 

 

[Social Justice League]

I've said this before and I'll say it again.

There won't be any kind of Brexit.

 

Let's be having the mythical peoples vote so that the people can tick the remain box this time.

[zugzwang]

15 minutes ago, rollover said:

Why not?

It could be the last throw of the dice before all the Brexit adventure go fully belly up.

Because the Bank, Treasury etc. believe that the negative shock of a hard Brexit would cause a run on sterling and an almighty recession, far worse than 2008-09.

Clearly, no deal is viewed by the Establishment as the worst of all possible outcomes. Hence the concerted efforts to avert it - even to the extent of recruiting the Daily Mail to the cause!

[GrizzlyDave]

19 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I say it as I see it.

We have a May minority solution that no one supports and no one would have voted for. That's not democracy.

Hard Brexit would have not seen the light of day had it been seen as THE serious option on the referendum.

So how did we get here?........Brexit 'the rainbow and unicorn' trojan horse everything to every man option was put out there when what was on offer and inside the trojan horse was the tardy May's deal or the even more dangerous Hard Brexit deal.

You know all this so don't come all innocent with me.

 

 

 

 

[pig]

22 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I say it as I see it.

We have a May minority solution that no one supports and no one would have voted for. That's not democracy.

Hard Brexit would have not seen the light of day had it been seen as THE serious option on the referendum.

So how did we get here?........Brexit 'the rainbow and unicorn' trojan horse everything to every man option was put out there when what was on offer and inside the trojan horse was the tardy May's deal or the even more dangerous Hard Brexit deal.

You know all this so don't come all innocent with me.

 

 

 

That’s a little unfair.

There was (perhaps still is) a smarter way through - but a load of nationalist/nativist twaddle tied us up in TMs red lines.

[Bruce Banner]

Listening to Sky News now and there's what sounds like a gang of football hooligans chanting, in deep thug like voices... "Out means out, out means out, we want Brexit now". They've just lost any sympathy I may have had for their cause.

[GrizzlyDave]

3 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Listening to Sky News now and there's what sounds like a gang of football hooligans chanting, in deep thug like voices... "Out means out, out means out, we want Brexit now". They've just lost any sympathy I may have had for their cause.

Oh come on - any interviews outside HoC normally has “stop brexit” being shouted ad infinitum.

Personally I can’t stand either leavers or remainers doing this.

But both sides do it. Both sides.

[Bruce Banner]

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Oh come on - any interviews outside HoC normally has “stop brexit” being shouted ad infinitum.

Personally I can’t stand either leavers or remainers doing this.

But both sides do it. Both sides.

This was the first one I've heard that sounded like a football chant.

[cnick]

7 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Listening to Sky News now and there's what sounds like a gang of football hooligans chanting, in deep thug like voices... "Out means out, out means out, we want Brexit now". They've just lost any sympathy I may have had for their cause.

So a few nutters who speak a particular language are representative of all others who speak the same language?

Was used some effect in this video to raise  some emotion...... to control people(?)

 

[kzb]

1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

Just popping up to give my bi-monthly statement on the fact that WE ARE NOT LEAVING THE EU!!

All this peripheral argument/debate on here is simply meaningless and pointless.

Take it easy folks

Yes I am taking it easy. I was reminded the other day the Irish had to vote THREE times before they gave the right result.

Since the referendum, the UK has enthusiastically signed up to every single off-the-books EU scheme, including providing troops to help Bosnia on their journey to EU membership.

The next EU budget is planned in, complete with UK contributions which we have apparently budgeted for.

 

 

[Fromage Frais]

18 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Oh come on - any interviews outside HoC normally has “stop brexit” being shouted ad infinitum.

Personally I can’t stand either leavers or remainers doing this.

But both sides do it. Both sides.

Agreed its hilarious to suggest otherwise

If it were true and people fell for that someone could pay few grand and get some drunks to shout Mogg is a Nazi and we love Junker it can be extrapolated to represent all remain voters.

 

[Bruce Banner]

Gus O'Donnell was just interviewed on BBC News. He did not rule out a second referendum.

[kzb]

6 hours ago, crouch said:

Revoke A50 to do what precisely?

Despite the ECJ ruling I still think revoking notice to leave could have problems.

First of all we need the decision in the UK to do so.  Referendum followed by revoking UK legislation on leaving on 29/03/19 and a vote in Parliament to revoke A50.

PM then writes to Tusk, or whomsoever it is, politely requesting to withdraw our notice to leave the EU.

Then what?  Tusk simply says thanks and back to business as usual?  Will it be that easy?

[Fromage Frais]

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

I say it as I see it.

We have a May minority solution that no one supports and no one would have voted for. That's not democracy.

Hard Brexit would have not seen the light of day had it been seen as THE serious option on the referendum.

So how did we get here?........Brexit 'the rainbow and unicorn' trojan horse everything to every man option was put out there when what was on offer and inside the trojan horse was the tardy May's deal or the even more dangerous Hard Brexit deal.

You know all this so don't come all innocent with me.

 

 

 

I have to say it is all a bit weird.

TMs agreement is unsignable so that is that.

The people's vote is a joke so that it that also.

My person feeling is that the diehard remain crowd and the EU weaponized the irish border to prevent say an EFTA/EEA with no customs union variant.

The objective at this point is a bluff calling exercise between keeping the UK in the backstop forever bottling it or leaving with no deal.

The problem is the default legal position is leave no deal...fact

Both parties stated they would honor the referendum and whomever calls the 2nd ref will loose.  

Its no deal or TM walks GE called article 50 delayed till end of GE and Corbyn and TBC can actually fight the election on the deal they want.

TM did an utter shit job i dont trust her at all she should have opened it up for the type of deal the house wanted early doors before false hope of reversing set in.

Personally I would have gone down the Varoufakis/iea EFTA/EEA (with all the immigration options in place and actually enforced) step buy step out you still would have had to have walk as an option though.

Part of me thinks the EU would prefer no deal to EFTA/EEA as a few others would consider jumping also if it worked out.

 

 

  

[Fromage Frais]

3 hours ago, thehowler said:

May is the least-bad of the Tories you're likely to end up with.

You'll likely get democracy with a snap GE now. She can't go on with no majority, losing votes and the speaker allowing unprecedented changes to procedure.

 

Agreed.

Whats the chances we get

1)  a GE with two parties actually setting out the deal that they want from the EU?  Bizarrely I bet you get less extreme views as they will have to agree between themselves before the manifesto.  Two softish Brexits efta/canada and then efta/eea + pointless customs union most likely.

2)  One party Brexit (cons most likely) and a second vote party.

3)  Both parties voting for a second vote.  v unlikely 

IMHO only hope of a second vote is for MPs to go against the vote and election promises in a majority in parliament....... 

 

 

[crouch]

20 minutes ago, kzb said:

Despite the ECJ ruling I still think revoking notice to leave could have problems.

First of all we need the decision in the UK to do so.  Referendum followed by revoking UK legislation on leaving on 29/03/19 and a vote in Parliament to revoke A50.

PM then writes to Tusk, or whomsoever it is, politely requesting to withdraw our notice to leave the EU.

Then what?  Tusk simply says thanks and back to business as usual?  Will it be that easy?

Revoking A50 has to be "unequivocal and unconditional". If it is seen as buying more time then that may not fit those criteria and the revocation would not be allowed. If it were revoked to allow time for another referendum then that surely would be neither unequivocal nor unconditional. However, if we did this we may have to effectively concede that the 2016 referendum was invalid and that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

See this: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/six-reasons-why-revoking-article-50-would-kill-brexit-not-pause-it/

As you say: will it be that easy? I think not.

 

[GrizzlyDave]

4 minutes ago, crouch said:

Revoking A50 has to be "unequivocal and unconditional". If it is seen as buying more time then that may not fit those criteria and the revocation would not be allowed. If it were revoked to allow time for another referendum then that surely would be neither unequivocal nor unconditional. However, if we did this we may have to effectively concede that the 2016 referendum was invalid and that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

See this: https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/six-reasons-why-revoking-article-50-would-kill-brexit-not-pause-it/

As you say: will it be that easy? I think not.

 

If there is political will within the EU that supports the UK revoking A50 then it can happen in a heart beat.

But is there? I’m not sure.

[Bruce Banner]

I find it amusing that, having been ridiculed on this thread for suggesting that a 2nd referendum may be the way forward, impossible they said, no way that could happen. Well today, none other than Gus O'donnell suggested on BBC News that a 2nd referendum may be the way forward.

[kzb]

6 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

If there is political will within the EU that supports the UK revoking A50 then it can happen in a heart beat.

But is there? I’m not sure.

Only a few months ago the MSM were telling us the EU secretly wants to see the back of us.  We were a constant thorn in the side.  Without us carping they can get along with integration much better thank you.

[GrizzlyDave]

5 minutes ago, kzb said:

Only a few months ago the MSM were telling us the EU secretly wants to see the back of us.  We were a constant thorn in the side.  Without us carping they can get along with integration much better thank you.

I remember hearing that.

CofVI might be able to offer his insight on the mood of the EU about the UK remaining...

MEP seats from the UK have been reallocated, tick tock.

[crouch]

17 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

I find it amusing that, having been ridiculed on this thread for suggesting that a 2nd referendum may be the way forward, impossible they said, no way that could happen. Well today, none other than Gus O'donnell suggested on BBC News that a 2nd referendum may be the way forward.

Gus O'Donell is an arch Remainer; he would say that wouldn't he?