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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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37 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Gibraltar also also heavily reliant on the online gaming industry.  Apparently there are supposed to be making contingency plans.  Something i'll have to read up on.

Moreover, the contingency plans seem to only mention financial services for the UK; not other types of services.

I wonder which country has the brains to steal that?

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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13 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

International Civil Aviation law (freedom of the air) guarantees overflight rights from Gib to UK.

I have no idea what proportion of revenue Gib makes from EU (not UK) trade. But I don’t think it will be terribly significant.

Gibraltar would have to sign a new Air Services Agreement with the EU...  Freedoms of the Air (Under the Chicago Air Transport Agreement) doesnt automatically give rights...These are done via bilateral/multilateral treaties..

Edited by Dave Beans
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23 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Taking "let them eat cake" to a new level?

NB The Carbon produced by long distance travel is pretty negligible component of the total. 

?

There's an interesting link between island nations that have sovereign control of their costal waters, and having the best restaurants in the world. Number of Michelin stars per city:

1. Tokyo, Japan

2. Kyoto, Japan

3. Paris, France 

4. Osaka, Japan 

5. New York City, USA

6. Hong Kong, China 

7 London, UK 

I listen to Farming Today on R4 a lot. UK exports to the rest of the EU seem to be mostly high end lobsters for Parisian restaurants (it would be great if anyone has some solid stats?). It won't do the Brexit voting fishermen's profit sheets a great deal of good if there are barriers to UK <> EU food shipments, but it would do wonders for the UK diet, and London restaurants could create even more jobs within the UK if we leapfrog Paris as a result of keeping our world class (mostly crustacean) ingredients in the UK, rather than bundling them into Paris bound LGVs.

The Paris bound lobsters are followed - AIUI in export terms - by the Northern European bound Herring & Mackerel, which may be harder to swallow, even if unpickled - but are hugely nutritious. 

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6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Gibraltar would have to sign a new Air Services Agreement with the EU...  Freedoms of the Air (Under the Chicago Air Transport Agreement) doesnt automatically give rights...These are done via bilateral/multilateral treaties..

Not quite. Bilateral and multilateral agreements would be needed for the full nine freedoms but even with no deal and a hostile EU, as Spain and the UK are both signatories of the 1944 Chicago Convention, the first five freedoms remain. We can overfly Spain.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/european-common-aviation-area-brexit

https://www.wipo.int/edocs/lexdocs/treaties/en/icao-ca/trt_icao_ca_001en.pdf

 

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Warm cherry pie:

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm

Financial services

After a thorough examination of the risks linked to a no deal scenario in the financial sector, the Commission has found that only a limited number of contingency measures is necessary to safeguard financial stability in the EU27.

The Commission has therefore adopted today the following acts:

  • A temporary and conditional equivalence decision for a fixed, limited period of 12 months to ensure that there will be no immediate disruption in the central clearing of derivatives.
  • A temporary and conditional equivalence decision for a fixed, limited period of 24 months to ensure that there will be no disruption in central depositaries services for EU operators currently using UK operators.
  • Two Delegated Regulations facilitating novation, for a fixed period of 12 months, of certain over-the-counter derivatives contracts, where a contract is transferred from a UK to an EU27 counterparty.

Transport

The Commission has today adopted two measures that will avoid full interruption of air traffic between the EU and the UK in the event of no deal. These measures will only ensure basic connectivity and in no means replicate the significant advantages of membership of the Single European Sky. This is subject to the UK conferring equivalent rights to EU air carriers, as well as the UK ensuring conditions of fair competition.

  • A proposal for a Regulation to ensure temporarily (for 12 months) the provision of certain air services between the UK and the EU.
  • A proposal for a Regulation to extend temporarily (for 9 months) the validity of certain aviation safety licences.

The Commission has also adopted a proposal for a Regulation to allow UK operators to temporarily (nine months) carry goods into the EU, provided the UK confers equivalent rights to EU road haulage operators and subject to fair competition conditions.

Customs and the export of goods

In a no deal scenario, all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK. The Commission has today adopted the following technical measures:

  • A Delegated Regulation to include the seas surrounding the UK in the provisions on time-limits within which entry summary declarations and pre-departure declarations have to be lodged prior to leaving or entering the Union's customs territory.
  • A proposal for a Regulation to add the UK to the list of countries for which a general authorisation to export dual use items is valid throughout the EU.

It is essential, however, that Member States take all the necessary steps to be in a position to apply the Union Customs Code and the relevant rules regarding indirect taxation in relation to the United Kingdom.

EU climate policy

The Commission has today adopted the following acts in the area of EU climate legislation in order to ensure that a "no-deal" scenario does not affect the smooth functioning and the environmental integrity of the Emissions Trading System.

  • A Commission Decision to suspend temporarily for the UK the free allocation of emissions allowances, auctioning, and the exchange of international credits with effect from 1 January 2019.
  • An Implementing Decision to allow an appropriate annual quota allocation to UK companies for accessing the EU27 market (until 31 December 2020).
  • An Implementing Regulation to ensure that the reporting by companies differentiates between the EU market and the UK market to allow a correct allocation of quotas in the future.
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25 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Warm cherry pie:

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en.htm

Financial services

After a thorough examination of the risks linked to a no deal scenario in the financial sector, the Commission has found that only a limited number of contingency measures is necessary to safeguard financial stability in the EU27.

The Commission has therefore adopted today the following acts:

  • A temporary and conditional equivalence decision for a fixed, limited period of 12 months to ensure that there will be no immediate disruption in the central clearing of derivatives.
  • A temporary and conditional equivalence decision for a fixed, limited period of 24 months to ensure that there will be no disruption in central depositaries services for EU operators currently using UK operators.
  • Two Delegated Regulations facilitating novation, for a fixed period of 12 months, of certain over-the-counter derivatives contracts, where a contract is transferred from a UK to an EU27 counterparty.

Transport

The Commission has today adopted two measures that will avoid full interruption of air traffic between the EU and the UK in the event of no deal. These measures will only ensure basic connectivity and in no means replicate the significant advantages of membership of the Single European Sky. This is subject to the UK conferring equivalent rights to EU air carriers, as well as the UK ensuring conditions of fair competition.

  • A proposal for a Regulation to ensure temporarily (for 12 months) the provision of certain air services between the UK and the EU.
  • A proposal for a Regulation to extend temporarily (for 9 months) the validity of certain aviation safety licences.

The Commission has also adopted a proposal for a Regulation to allow UK operators to temporarily (nine months) carry goods into the EU, provided the UK confers equivalent rights to EU road haulage operators and subject to fair competition conditions.

Customs and the export of goods

In a no deal scenario, all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK. The Commission has today adopted the following technical measures:

  • A Delegated Regulation to include the seas surrounding the UK in the provisions on time-limits within which entry summary declarations and pre-departure declarations have to be lodged prior to leaving or entering the Union's customs territory.
  • A proposal for a Regulation to add the UK to the list of countries for which a general authorisation to export dual use items is valid throughout the EU.

It is essential, however, that Member States take all the necessary steps to be in a position to apply the Union Customs Code and the relevant rules regarding indirect taxation in relation to the United Kingdom.

EU climate policy

The Commission has today adopted the following acts in the area of EU climate legislation in order to ensure that a "no-deal" scenario does not affect the smooth functioning and the environmental integrity of the Emissions Trading System.

  • A Commission Decision to suspend temporarily for the UK the free allocation of emissions allowances, auctioning, and the exchange of international credits with effect from 1 January 2019.
  • An Implementing Decision to allow an appropriate annual quota allocation to UK companies for accessing the EU27 market (until 31 December 2020).
  • An Implementing Regulation to ensure that the reporting by companies differentiates between the EU market and the UK market to allow a correct allocation of quotas in the future.

thehowler has convinced me that May's deal is the best for the future of the UK.

But.... the above makes me think that a no-deal exit wouldn't be that big a deal.

Who to listen to? ?

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Maybe i can hijack this thread a bit. Living in Germany and have no clue what will happen next.

 

In todays announcement

UK citizens who have lived in an EU state for a period of more than five years must be granted, subject to certain conditions, long-term resident status.

Now what does subject to certain conditions mean?

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1 minute ago, what said:

Maybe i can hijack this thread a bit. Living in Germany and have no clue what will happen next.

 

In todays announcement

UK citizens who have lived in an EU state for a period of more than five years must be granted, subject to certain conditions, long-term resident status.

Now what does subject to certain conditions mean?

****. 5 years of residence in the EU isn't unilaterally sufficient - without 'certain conditions'. 

Good luck to anyone who hopes to establish EU residence now, or in the future - before we withdraw.

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13 minutes ago, highYield said:

****. 5 years of residence in the EU isn't unilaterally sufficient - without 'certain conditions'. 

Good luck to anyone who hopes to establish EU residence now, or in the future - before we withdraw.

I have 11 years but I can`t seem to master the German language which prevents me from going for citizenship.

If I have to take any language test I am in trouble.

Edited by what
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13 minutes ago, highYield said:

****. 5 years of residence in the EU isn't unilaterally sufficient - without 'certain conditions'. 

Good luck to anyone who hopes to establish EU residence now, or in the future - before we withdraw.

I'm racing for EU residence now. Have FIRE'd and moved to the Med a couple of weeks ago.  Have my immigration registration interview confirmed for early February 2019 so will make it before Brexit day (if it happens).  Know all the criteria I need to meet and am pulling together the docs including proving I can support myself, have medical insurance, can bury myself and have somewhere to live to name but 4.  There's a few other criteria as well.  Once I have my registration I should be golden and keep my EU rights going forward.

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5 minutes ago, wish I could afford one said:

I'm racing for EU residence now. Have FIRE'd and moved to the Med a couple of weeks ago.  Have my immigration registration interview confirmed for early February 2019 so will make it before Brexit day (if it happens).  Know all the criteria I need to meet and am pulling together the docs including proving I can support myself, have medical insurance, can bury myself and have somewhere to live to name but 4.  There's a few other criteria as well.  Once I have my registration I should be golden and keep my EU rights going forward.

I have a German wife and a German daughter and no guarantee that I will be here end of March 2019.

The messed up thing is, if I leave or get kicked out,  the German Tax authorities will want me to pay my Tax in Germany because of my daughter and my wife.

 

Edited by what
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Just now, longgone said:

Cyprus

Depends.

https://www.dualcitizenship.com/countries/cyprus.html

CITIZENSHIP BY DESCENT

Those born abroad to at least one Cypriot parent or those of Cypriot origin are entitled to citizenship and can register for citizenship with a local consulate. Those born abroad between August 16, 1960 and 1999 to a Cypriot mother may register as a citizen after age 21.

 

 

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1 minute ago, what said:

Depends.

https://www.dualcitizenship.com/countries/cyprus.html

CITIZENSHIP BY DESCENT

Those born abroad to at least one Cypriot parent or those of Cypriot origin are entitled to citizenship and can register for citizenship with a local consulate. Those born abroad between August 16, 1960 and 1999 to a Cypriot mother may register as a citizen after age 21.

 

 

Hmm Cypriot father so looks like the first option although the dates match

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36 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:
1 hour ago, highYield said:

thehowler has convinced me that May's deal is the best for the future of the UK.

But.... the above makes me think that a no-deal exit wouldn't be that big a deal.

Who to listen to? ?

I think it is game on for no deal.

Have to agree, the big stick doesn't look that...big stickish. Road haulage gets 9 months, we'll reciprocate on the 3 year visa fee, equivalence kicks in. Resident Brit citizens inside the EU get shafted, but imagine that would change anyway given the UK promises.

They don't need to go hardball. They just need to go nasty enough to a) help MPs towards the deal, b) bring any Brit govt back to the table/the deal after months of disruption.

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2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Not quite. Bilateral and multilateral agreements would be needed for the full nine freedoms but even with no deal and a hostile EU, as Spain and the UK are both signatories of the 1944 Chicago Convention, the first five freedoms remain. We can overfly Spain.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/european-common-aviation-area-brexit

https://www.wipo.int/edocs/lexdocs/treaties/en/icao-ca/trt_icao_ca_001en.pdf

 

UK's Air Services Agreement with the EU (basically enacts the five freedoms)..of which we would fall out of...

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32008R1008&from=EN

...

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44016.pdf

In general, international air service agreements involve the granting of various levels of the “freedoms of the air.”

The foundation and framework for modern international civil aviation agreements can be traced back to the Chicago Convention, which affirmed the principle that every nation has absolute and exclusive sovereignty over its airspace.

The Chicago Convention produced two ancillary accords, the International Air Services Transit Agreement (“Two Freedoms Agreement”) and the International Air Transport Agreement (“Five Freedoms Agreement”). These are the “five freedoms” of air transport that are often referred to in negotiations over international air service agreements.

Ironic where EU member states are supposed to be sovereign, but they cannot enter into bilateral agreements by themselves...Its an EU competence..

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3 hours ago, highYield said:

Good luck with fighting that rejoin battle.

Right, but you could also say "Good luck fighting that EFTA battle" and "Good luck fighting that WTO Brexit battle". It's not at all obvious which way this is going to go, there is no electoral majority for any of those outcomes.

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1 hour ago, highYield said:

thehowler has convinced me that May's deal is the best for the future of the UK.

But.... the above makes me think that a no-deal exit wouldn't be that big a deal.

Who to listen to? ?

This contingency malarky is to allow the EU to get their affairs in order.. Does it cover services? not really.. The BIP port thing would cause chaos.  Mrs May's deal has two cliff edges built into it, and we are trapped in a customs union.  Its probably the better option than the no deal deal..It keeps us in the game..

Shows how much they care...

DuzQDGqWsAYdiqt.jpg

Edited by Dave Beans
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