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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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26 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I don't see how this changes the dynamic or changes anything.

Westminster is done, it's blown a fuse, it's an ex-parliament pining for the Norway plus deal, or WTO, or remain, or May's deal. An election would just produce Brexit, the directors cut. Same as it ever is.

Howler is trying to avoid a referendum  by forcing both parties to specify how they would Brexit, while removing the remain option by linking Brexit to the two main parties.

It ignores the fact that we already have had the same election where both parties specified their approach to Brexit and Remain as offered by Libs. The voters choose none of the plans. Mays attempt to enforce her plan has been a dismal failure.

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10 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Ivan Rogers speech a couple of days ago in Liverpool; nine lessons.  Worth a read.

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

  • First Lesson: It has of course to be that “Brexit means Brexit”. I do not mean this facetiously. Well, not primarily, anyway….
  • Second lesson: Other people have sovereignty too. And they too may choose to “take back control” of things you would rather they didn’t.
  • Third lesson: Brexit is a process not an event. And the EU, while strategically myopic, is formidably good at process against negotiating opponents. We have to be equally so, or we will get hammered. Repeatedly.
  • Fourth lesson: it is not possible or democratic to argue that only one Brexit destination is true, legitimate and represents the revealed “Will of the People” and that all other potential destinations outside the EU are “Brexit in Name Only”.
  • Fifth lesson: If WTO terms or existing EU preferential deals are not good enough for the UK in major third country markets, they can’t be good enough for trade with our largest market.
  • Sixth lesson: the huge problem for the UK with either reversion to WTO terms or with a standard free trade deal with the EU is in services.
  • Seventh lesson: Beware all supposed deals bearing “pluses”.
  • Eighth lesson: you cannot, and should not want to, conduct such a huge negotiation as untransparently as the U.K. has. And in the end, it does you no good to try.
  • Ninth lesson: real honesty with the public is the best – the only – policy if we are to get to the other side of Brexit with a healthy democracy, a reasonably unified country and a healthy economy.

Fascinating read - good find.

I guess we haven’t really started yet on the actual hard part of negotiation - all the same couldn’t help wondering if he was hunting for a horse in a pitch black stable or bolting the door after the proverbial.

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1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

Rubbish.

If I am a small and I do business with someone that is nearly 10x the size - I better have something the big guy really, really wants - or else they get to dictate all the terms.

It will apply to any trade deal we go for. You think the EU is bad, prepare to be raped by India, China or the USA.

It's how the world works.

Help! I've just been raped by the Chinese firm that just sold me some curtains off ebay.

 

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22 minutes ago, micawber said:

It is only 44% of our exports that go to the EU. There is no need to exaggerate. And I'd guess that at least 90% of those exports would continue (Coldplay, Benny Hill, Mr Bean, etc) in the same way that we would continue to buy EU goods. So, yeah, maybe we lose 4.4% of our exports. I could see that being made up with freer trade with the RoW. I'm not scared. I'm confident.

You think we are run down? Have you been to Italy recently?

Not quite right, last year it was 44% to EU countries PLUS 12% through EU agreements to other countries

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43212899

Other countries will be higher now as the Japanese, Canada, South Korean and Mexican EU trade deals are more or less on line. Each one took 6-10 years to implement, and that's with a shit-hot, competent trade negotiation team. Judging by Brexit, no sign of that ability here. In fact we have a dilemna.

https://www.ft.com/content/f1435a8e-372b-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/28/uk-lacks-expertise-for-trade-talks-with-europe-says-top-civil-servant

http://uk.businessinsider.com/britain-brexit-trade-negotiations-whitehall-liam-fox-2016-7

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/03/government-faces-worldwide-hunt-for-trade-negotiators-experts-wa/

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/ministers-struggle-name-one-country-expressed-interest-post-brexit-trade-deal/02/01/

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-liam-fox-flown-around-11779795

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/08/tory-trade-bill-ttip-brexit-britain-parliamentary-scrutiny

http://theasiadialogue.com/2018/02/02/why-the-uk-wont-get-a-better-trade-deal-with-china-outside-the-eu/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/14/us-trade-deal-government-farming-practices-livestock-antibiotics

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-jacob-reesmogg-steve-baker-economists-for-free-trade-a8533021.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-meat-banned-eu-australia-beef-liam-fox-dit-friends-of-the-earth-a8475006.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade/britains-fox-says-uk-eu-trade-deal-easiest-in-human-history-sterling-falls-idUSKBN1A50QC

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-5977969/RUTH-SUNDERLAND-end-no-deal-Brexit-World-Trade-Organisation-wont-save-us.html

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/24/uk-stop-blather-face-reality-brexit-trade-ivan-rogers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_New_Post

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/08/tory-trade-bill-ttip-brexit-britain-parliamentary-scrutiny

https://inews.co.uk/news/exclusive-uk-demands-secrecy-brexit-trade-talks-us/

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deals-70-countries-cliff-edge-international-trade-government-warn-a8242991.html

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/02/12/tariff-sabotage-free-market-extremists-hijack-brexit-trade-c

Result = Realism 5 vs Fantasy 0

 

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7 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Help! I've just been raped by the Chinese firm that just sold me some curtains off ebay.

 

Was it filmed? They usually do.

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12 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Howler is trying to avoid a referendum  by forcing both parties to specify how they would Brexit, while removing the remain option by linking Brexit to the two main parties.

It ignores the fact that we already have had the same election where both parties specified their approach to Brexit and Remain as offered by Libs. The voters choose none of the plans. Mays attempt to enforce her plan has been a dismal failure.

Quite Peter.

I don't believe there should be any compromise. It should be WTO or remain. Nobody really wants the middle ground, they want a definitive answer. If a referendum was held now, without any lies, everything marshalled by truth and law. I would accept WTO if it was the majority.

I will never accept the last referendum as it was a theatrical travesty of misrepresentation, poor planning and unfettered governance.

If there is not such a referendum, or it's badly implemented like the last one - the only answer is WTO.

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37 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Help! I've just been raped by the Chinese firm that just sold me some curtains off ebay.

 

That's really funny....... I expect you'll need some vaseline with that

Edited by IMHAL

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36 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Lucky for you we believe in freedom of movement within the UK, so you were able to relocate for another job rather than being confined to your home town.

What? Who is confined to their home town?

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9 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Was it filmed? They usually do.

Nah. They had several billion other people to rape, so couldn't be asked. 

Went off muttering something about Nanking. Or Lucrece. Or something. Couldn't understand their accent TBH.

 

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1 minute ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Nah. They had several billion other people to rape, so couldn't be asked. 

Went off muttering something about Nanking. Or Lucrece. Or something. Couldn't understand their accent TBH.

 

Don't mention the Opium war ... 🙂

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15 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Not quite right, last year it was 44% to EU countries PLUS 12% through EU agreements to other countries

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43212899

Other countries will be higher now as the Japanese, Canada, South Korean and Mexican EU trade deals are more or less on line. Each one took 6-10 years to implement, and that's with a shit-hot, competent trade negotiation team. Judging by Brexit, no sign of that ability here. In fact we have a dilemna.

https://www.ft.com/content/f1435a8e-372b-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/28/uk-lacks-expertise-for-trade-talks-with-europe-says-top-civil-servant

http://uk.businessinsider.com/britain-brexit-trade-negotiations-whitehall-liam-fox-2016-7

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/03/government-faces-worldwide-hunt-for-trade-negotiators-experts-wa/

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/ministers-struggle-name-one-country-expressed-interest-post-brexit-trade-deal/02/01/

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-liam-fox-flown-around-11779795

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/08/tory-trade-bill-ttip-brexit-britain-parliamentary-scrutiny

http://theasiadialogue.com/2018/02/02/why-the-uk-wont-get-a-better-trade-deal-with-china-outside-the-eu/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/14/us-trade-deal-government-farming-practices-livestock-antibiotics

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/18/rightwing-thinktanks-unveil-radical-plan-for-us-uk-brexit-trade-deal-nhs

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-jacob-reesmogg-steve-baker-economists-for-free-trade-a8533021.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-meat-banned-eu-australia-beef-liam-fox-dit-friends-of-the-earth-a8475006.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-trade/britains-fox-says-uk-eu-trade-deal-easiest-in-human-history-sterling-falls-idUSKBN1A50QC

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-5977969/RUTH-SUNDERLAND-end-no-deal-Brexit-World-Trade-Organisation-wont-save-us.html

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/24/uk-stop-blather-face-reality-brexit-trade-ivan-rogers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_New_Post

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/08/tory-trade-bill-ttip-brexit-britain-parliamentary-scrutiny

https://inews.co.uk/news/exclusive-uk-demands-secrecy-brexit-trade-talks-us/

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deals-70-countries-cliff-edge-international-trade-government-warn-a8242991.html

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/02/12/tariff-sabotage-free-market-extremists-hijack-brexit-trade-c

Result = Realism 5 vs Fantasy 0

 

EPIC! The only problem is that I don't bother with links. What do YOU think?

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Just now, micawber said:

EPIC! The only problem is that I don't bother with links. What do YOU think?

So facts are irrelevant? 

I think you are wrong because your assumptions and beliefs are undone by the reality.

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4 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

So facts are irrelevant? 

I think you are wrong because your assumptions and beliefs are undone by the reality.

It appear we can get by on bravado and used car sales bluster......in which case we should make spivving a compulsory subject at school. 

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Teresa looks super incompetent.  I don't buy it.

My most recent impression of the brexit circus is that Theresa still wants to remain but needs to put up a show to keep brexiters happy.

This is fine with me.

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1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

Howler is trying to avoid a referendum  by forcing both parties to specify how they would Brexit, while removing the remain option by linking Brexit to the two main parties.

It ignores the fact that we already have had the same election where both parties specified their approach to Brexit and Remain as offered by Libs. The voters choose none of the plans. Mays attempt to enforce her plan has been a dismal failure.

So it's time for Labour to stop aping the Tories and tell us what they want from Brexit instead of the we'll-see-what-happens BS.

And I'm not trying to avoid remain. But the 2nd ref is a remain dream, it doesn't reflect the vote. It's not for leavers.

I want the UK to heal. Any 2nd ref risks an even worse outcome.

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34 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

It appear we can get by on bravado and used car sales bluster......in which case we should make spivving a compulsory subject at school. 

That’s your best post of the year 

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54 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

If a referendum was held now, without any lies, everything marshalled by truth and law. I would accept WTO if it was the majority.

You won't be offered that choice.

That's why all the talk about a 2nd ref is a waste of breath.

MPs don't want you in charge of anything.

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8 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Howler is trying to avoid a referendum  by forcing both parties to specify how they would Brexit, while removing the remain option by linking Brexit to the two main parties.

And...are you saying I'm wrong for wanting to know how the parties will Brexit?

The Tories are a farce. But you seem to also endorse the Labour BS dithering.

I for one would like to know what Corbyn wants from Brexit.

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Labour are riven on a 2nd ref...all this delay BS from Labour might truthfully better be described as just not wanting to have one.

I really hope nobody on this board is still thinking Labour are going to save your 2nd ref asses?

Further, I hope nobody on this board thinks Labour have a shred of integrity left with their six-test-BS-do-nothing-claptrap.

Labour are besmirched no less than the Tories in my eyes - what have they been doing for the last 30 months?

But as Tony Blair's former spin doctor Alastair Campbell - a leading advocate for a new referendum - warned his fellow campaigners: "it may be time to face up to the fact that Labour under Jeremy Corbyn will do everything to make sure a People's Vote won't happen".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46574289

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10 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why on earth would anyone have expected the EU to be our ally in Brexit, that would surely be taking naivety to a new level. The UK outside of the EU is a competitor not a friend. The EU has simply applied the rules, ...

 

... Rules we no longer wish to be bound by.

And we will not be, seeing as we are leaving. And apart from that crucial aspect, we agree on the point I was making; as a good deal was never in the offing, we should have prepared for no deal from day one. If they wanted to offer us something while their silly A50 clock counted down, fine. Let them stick to the rules: they have to cos they wrote them.

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2 hours ago, thehowler said:

May resigns, Tories and Labour set out their Brexit positions, you vote, whoever gets the mandate takes us forward.

This isn't what I want. I'd prefer May's deal. But doubt we'll get it.

2nd ref is all about remain, there's nothing there for leavers.

A second referendum would for both Remainers and Leavers would be about a chance to make an informed choice, .

I am not confident which way it would go but it would give a mandate for  whichever was chosen. At the moment the path we are headed down has no mandate, as around half of Leavers think it does not honour the referendum vote.

 

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4 minutes ago, Sledgehead said:

... Rules we no longer wish to be bound by.

And we will not be, seeing as we are leaving. And apart from that crucial aspect, we agree on the point I was making; as a good deal was never in the offing, we should have prepared for no deal from day one. If they wanted to offer us something while their silly A50 clock counted down, fine. Let them stick to the rules: they have to cos they wrote them.

Third country status, being outside the SM is a default.  If we dont want to be a member of it, then thats what you get.  They are not going to harmonise for a third country.  There is no Canada++++++

Edited by Dave Beans

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2 minutes ago, Sledgehead said:

... Rules we no longer wish to be bound by.

And we will not be, seeing as we are leaving. And apart from that crucial aspect, we agree on the point I was making; as a good deal was never in the offing, we should have prepared for no deal from day one. If they wanted to offer us something while their silly A50 clock counted down, fine. Let them stick to the rules: they have to cos they wrote them.

Actually we wrote the rules, A50 was created at the request of the UK government and largely written by Lord Kerr.

Nothing wrong with deciding we don't wish to be bound by the rules as long as we are prepared to give up all the benefits of being in the EU, settle our account on the way out and become just another third country.

Problem is we don't want to be just another third country as the economic cost will be huge.. 

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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