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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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14 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Crash out would mean a genuine, we reach the leaving date without the agreements in place that allow life to continue largely uninterrupted. So the plane, trains, ferries are disrupted. Trade stops because of customs checks or legal/insurance issues. People use the legal issues to avoid honouring contracts, so people stop signing contracts further hampering trade. Food supplies dwindle rioting starts.

It's not going to happen. So that leaves us with a negotiated WTO rules based exit. This is a different but equally complicated deal that will itself take years to negotiate.

 

I do wonder if physical reality might prevail over the paperwork.

If the goods are sitting there & the supermarkets, hospital, factories etc. need them I think it's possible they may get through.

Our side of La Manche anyway. And, as Macron has found out that things can get tricky if you're trying to be too intransigent & don't allow reality to take priority over theory.

 

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3 minutes ago, Quicken said:

"Here is the measure of Theresa May’s failure last night - according to an observer of her request to EU leaders for 'assurances' that UK membership of the EU backstop would be finite and of short duration.

"They were ready to help. They assumed a process of officials agreeing a text over coming week would start today, to give her the necessary words that would persuade Tory and DUP critics of her deal to ultimately support it.

"But it was during the course of questioning her that they concluded such a process - such an extension of talks - would be a total waste of time. Why?

"Well according to one observer of the conversation between May and the EU27 leaders, 'she could not say what would actually deliver a majority in parliament for her'.

"Why on earth could and should they start talks in the absence of knowing what May actually wants?

Wasn't this after they told her they can't open or renegotiate the WA or provide any legal assurances on time limit for backstop etc.

So...man goes into car showroom. "I want to buy a car."

Dealer: "Sorry, I can't sell you a car. So tell me, what is it you want exactly?"

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1 hour ago, thehowler said:

Have it as many ways as you want but you won't get MPs to vote to allow a WTO exit on a ref ballot paper.

How cowardly. Considering there is probably a 20-25% hard core of the country/politicos that wants it - it should be on the ballot paper - 'will of the people' and all that.

... and there I was thinking everybody wanted democracy. If you have remain - you've GOT to have no-deal.

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1 hour ago, thehowler said:

I think that's what you'll get.

I cannot see another way you cannot win an election with X position and then say screw you I feel like doing Y or at least you cannot without the full support of your party.

It's not binary on the brexit side so a GE with a new Conservative leader can shed itself of remaining doubt.  

Labour have a more difficult path to tread as replacing remainer MPs is easier than replacing the 30-35% of voters concentrated in constituencies labour cannot afford to loose.

This would then force Corbyn to pin his colours to the mast vote Tory get actual brexit with a new leader and patriotic drum beating vs another referendum after this if you vote labour?

you may get voters who want to just get it all over with on the tory side.

if they do tories leave vs labour stay hmmmm labour would probably need a new leader who believes in it.

Can you win an election based on "project fear" ie negative campaigning?  The underlying theme would be faith/pride vs submission/defeat.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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1 minute ago, thehowler said:

Wasn't this after they told her they can't open or renegotiate the WA or provide any legal assurances on time limit for backstop etc.

So...man goes into car showroom. "I want to buy a car."

Dealer: "Sorry, I can't sell you a car. So tell me, what is it you want exactly?"

I think it is clear that legally binding assurances on time limits and/or unilateral exit will not be forthcoming because those are red lines for Ireland. May needs to suck that up.

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51 minutes ago, pig said:

LMAO they caused all of this and are still stoking it !

They are essentially the b******* screwing up politics for decades and are now bringing the country to its knees with the PM stripped of agency, the UK of sovereignty, begging other European nations for help.

They are the thus far unaccountable elite within the elite who will not stop unless directly confronted and exposed.

If they get anything short of Hard Brexit they will continue forever to poison and unhinge the country. Your 'average' leaver is mere cannon fodder.

They repeatedly slither around camouflaging themselves in the media as standing for the now fictional '17.4m', or the conservative grassroots when actually they have no mandate, their views are unpopular/extremist.

Or are they ?

Isn't it therefore high time we put it to a democratic vote ? They might well win - but hey we would then genuinely deserve anything coming to us and hopefully, once exposed and separated out, to them...
 

Exactly.

They have a comparative Trump's base of voters too. There is only one way of demonstrating these people are a nightmare and self-serving. That's to enact the nightmare. Otherwise they will continue and as things get worse here - due to a middle ground Brexit, their support will grow.

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8 minutes ago, Quicken said:

I think it is clear that legally binding assurances on time limits and/or unilateral exit will not be forthcoming because those are red lines for Ireland. May needs to suck that up.

Realistically can you tie up a country to something legally without end?

Its dead as despite the obfuscation the average Joe can understand that and logic tells you a contract you cannot get out of is seldom a good contract.

During the referendum people where told  voting leave would be an absolute disaster by remain and by the government officially.

Ergo they knew it would come to walking out if a deal could not be made.

If the government cannot handle that situation then a GE it should be.

Edited by Fromage Frais

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3 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Exactly.

They have a comparative Trump's base of voters too. There is only one way of demonstrating these people are a nightmare and self-serving. That's to enact the nightmare. Otherwise they will continue and as things get worse here - due to a middle ground Brexit, their support will grow.

So in essence give the people who won the full fat version of what they voted for.

They can then either enjoy or despair at their adult choices made.

= Democracy

May tried her best th EU are prepared to walk if they cannot have a perpetual backstop so they have called the bluff.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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1 minute ago, Quicken said:

I think it is clear that legally binding assurances on time limits and/or unilateral exit will not be forthcoming because those are red lines for Ireland. May needs to suck that up.

Peston made it clear about the EU saying no first - ambushing May again - in an earlier post...seems to contradict himself.

It's all staged to make it look as though they have no choice in any of this, and to paint May as indecisive and weak.

I don't think the EU are looking too good today, they might regret this.

She was rebuffed by EU leaders in her request to them for a few weeks of fresh work by officials to formulate words of what she called “reassurance” such that Tory Brexiter and DUP MPs could be confident that the backstop they hate would only ever be short lived if implemented.

“We do not want the UK to think there can be any form of renegotiation whatsoever” said EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Ah, project fear again, planes, trains, ferries disrupted, riots, starvation, plague of locusts :rolleyes:. Remember when Regan sacked all the air traffic controllers? Important things can be sorted out pretty quickly when needs must.

Surely WTO terms are the default if we leave without a deal, so a "negotiated WTO rules based exit" is just another term for a deal.

Of course saying project fear makes all bad things go away. 

Comparing a crash out with a little dispute over ATC pay is laughable

WTO is just a framework that you build on we wouldn't have built anything if we crash out. A negotiated WTO exit would take years to negotiate, so could only happen if we revoke A50.

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3 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

So in essence give the people who won the full fat version of what they voted for.

They can then either enjoy or despair at their adult choices made.

= Democracy

May tried her best th EU are prepared to walk if they cannot have a perpetual backstop so they have called the bluff.

 

Yes.

In order to stop the train, it's got to be crashed. Then most of the people that wanted it piled up against the buffers will realise it was not a magic train and it can indeed be wrecked. The best form of education is to show not tell.

Farage, JRM, Johnson and the rest should be silenced. They can leave the country for speaking fees in the USA.

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9 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Peston made it clear about the EU saying no first - ambushing May again - in an earlier post...seems to contradict himself.

It's all staged to make it look as though they have no choice in any of this, and to paint May as indecisive and weak.

I don't think the EU are looking too good today, they might regret this.

She was rebuffed by EU leaders in her request to them for a few weeks of fresh work by officials to formulate words of what she called “reassurance” such that Tory Brexiter and DUP MPs could be confident that the backstop they hate would only ever be short lived if implemented.

“We do not want the UK to think there can be any form of renegotiation whatsoever” said EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

 

 

This is the problem when they have been visited by the remain side and advised what to do.

Their game is to hold back and see if the chaos works out in their favour and the result is reversed.

I dont blame them for one moment they could get a top ten economic and military power back in the club paying subs just by saying NO.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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17 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

How cowardly. Considering there is probably a 20-25% hard core of the country/politicos that wants it - it should be on the ballot paper - 'will of the people' and all that.

... and there I was thinking everybody wanted democracy. If you have remain - you've GOT to have no-deal.

I also think that 'no-deal' should be an option on the 2nd ref ballot paper. I see three options: no-deal,  TM's deal, remain. People made this mess, they need to take responsibility for it. I think it is now much clearer what the choices are, not like the previous ref when the level of debate was appalling and some treated it as a protest vote not really thinking of consequences. 

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9 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Yes.

In order to stop the train, it's got to be crashed. Then most of the people that wanted it piled up against the buffers will realise it was not a magic train and it can indeed be wrecked. The best form of education is to show not tell.

Farage, JRM, Johnson and the rest should be silenced. They can leave the country for speaking fees in the USA.

How would you silence them? Any tips would be welcome. There's a few people I'd like to silence.

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7 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Of course saying project fear makes all bad things go away. 

Comparing a crash out with a little dispute over ATC pay is laughable

WTO is just a framework that you build on we wouldn't have built anything if we crash out. A negotiated WTO exit would take years to negotiate, so could only happen if we revoke A50.

Project fear it is then :rolleyes:.

All I want is for the people to have their say.

I would prefer to remain, or failing that hard Brexit (WTO).

Obviously since I don't agree with you I must be wrong, but it's a free country, or is it?

 

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16 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Yes.

In order to stop the train, it's got to be crashed. Then most of the people that wanted it piled up against the buffers will realise it was not a magic train and it can indeed be wrecked. The best form of education is to show not tell.

Farage, JRM, Johnson and the rest should be silenced. They can leave the country for speaking fees in the USA.

Thank god you're not in charge.  

We live in a free country if i want to start a campaign for any subject it should be allowed (unless illegal).

How about the house prices should be 70% lower in 12 months referendum.  i truly want this to be the case.

  • it will crash the economy
  • people will lose their jobs
  • a lot of vested interests will be out of pocket and angry
  • I however believe the country will be better in the years to come

    Should I be "silenced" for that opinion the economic damage would actually be worse than brexit possibly.

I have relatives in undemocratic countries let me tell you the people electrocuting your testicles or pulling out your nails think they are in the right and are the "good guys".

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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27 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Wasn't this after they told her they can't open or renegotiate the WA or provide any legal assurances on time limit for backstop etc.

So...man goes into car showroom. "I want to buy a car."

Dealer: "Sorry, I can't sell you a car. So tell me, what is it you want exactly?"

She was fully aware the WA would not be reopened. 

She would also have known that any legal guarantee acceptable to her party would be unacceptable to the EU as it would remove the backstop.

So what was she actually doing there? 

 

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3 minutes ago, slawek said:

I also think that 'no-deal' should be an option on the 2nd ref ballot paper. I see three options: no-deal,  TM's deal, remain. People made this mess, they need to take responsibility for it. I think it is now much clearer what the choices are, not like the previous ref when the level of debate was appalling and some treated it as a protest vote not really thinking of consequences. 

Exactly!

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3 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:
 

 

 

She was upset for calling her nebulous. I am surprised TM is so sensitive, she has been called much worse.  

 

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  • 243 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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