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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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10 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

Is there anyone in public or private life who thinks this is a good deal? Obviously it, as with brexit in general, is going nowhere, but I can't think of anyone except May and a few stooges

There are plenty (a majority) of quiet, loyal, Tory MPs (maybe even a few Labour ones) - and a lot of business people - who will be breathing a gentle sigh of relief tonight. The ones who don't go on tv chat shows and radio stations to lay out their agenda, the same 20-30 faces that are all we ever see from the Parliamentary estate.

On a personal level, gotta see it. If it gets us out of the current paralysis/ossification and to transition, and then to more sensible discussions on FTA etc - without never-ending backstop - then it might be a good thing.

I imagine there'll be a political breakaway in next few days or shortly after the meaningful vote (Gruniad reckons vote will be the 10th Dec). Notable that Soubry didn't deny she'd been approached, on Politics Live today.

Europhiles can then begin to campaign to rejoin, perhaps re-invent the LibDems, pressure the govt to get the best possible negotiated departure from the bloc.

WA is still the best bet for a way out of this. A 2nd ref won't save us, good chance you'd get the same result.

Wonder if the backstop will leak tonight?

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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9 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Care to provide some facts on which countries have visa agreements with the EU or the UK.

My passport says EU, if the UK is no longer in the EU do I have the right to enter another country on a invalid identify document?

Your passport says EU but it is only currently EU because the UK is a member of the EU - there is no such thing as an EU passport just a passport of an EU member state. Once the UK leaves the EU post transition it won't be the passport of an EU member state - because the UK won't be a member state.

Schengen has common visa policies - we aren't in Schengen. There are many examples as to how tourism policies vary for EU nations.

Take the US - nationals of several EU member states (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia etc) aren't eligible to travel to the EU on the visa waiver/ESTA scheme so need visas for tourism. UK nationals don't. So one major example as to how a big country has different tourism policies for EU member states.

http://www.esta.us/visa_waiver_countries.html

Qatar - home to one of the world's best airlines and the 2022 world cup - has different visa on arrivals policies for UK and Irish citizens (30 days without a visa) compared to other EU member state citizens (90 days without a visa) even now.  Might be an issue if England make the 2022 world cup final!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_Qatar

New Zealand has more generous tourism policies for UK citizens (six months stay without a visa) than any other country bar Australia (the standard for most other nations is 3 months) and we are the only nation bar Australia who get free reciprocal healthcare in NZ. Another example of where other EU nations - and UK citizens are treated differently. Other Commonwealth nations (e.g. in the Carribbean) treat UK citizens more generously including offering voting rights in elections - Jamaica offers UK citizens six months but other EU member state passport holders only 90 (e.g. Germany) with some (e.g. Portugal, France and Poland) only getting 30. So Jamaica has 3 different policies for EU member state tourists!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_Jamaica

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_New_Zealand

Iran has different visa arrangements for UK citizens than for other EU nations even now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_policy_of_Iran

I merely point out that there are already plenty of examples where the UK has different tourism/visa requirements than other EU member states - and other EU member states are treated differently by different nations (e.g. the US).

 

 

Edited by MARTINX9
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15 minutes ago, thehowler said:

There are plenty (a majority) of quiet, loyal, Tory MPs (maybe even a few Labour ones) - and a lot of business people - who will be breathing a gentle sigh of relief tonight.

And as per usual you go off on a puff ball of wishful thinking based on exactly zero information.

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4 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

And as per usual you go off on a puff ball of wishful thinking based on exactly zero information.

And of course the key issue is whether the UK parliament at a future date can vote to leave the UK wide customs union with the EU - or will we be forced to remain in it forever unless the EU agrees otherwise. Its perhaps the difference between a vassal state and a democracy. A nation that neither sets its trade policy independently nor has a say in how that trade policy is decided isn't really much of a nation.

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4 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

And of course the key issue is whether the UK parliament at a future date can vote to leave the UK wide customs union with the EU - or will we be forced to remain in it forever unless the EU agrees otherwise. Its perhaps the difference between a vassal state and a democracy. A nation that neither sets its trade policy independently nor has a say in how that trade policy is decided isn't really much of a nation.

Yes, I agree, let's break up the ill-conceived United States of America too. We'll soon see how California does compared to Mississippi.

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8 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

And of course the key issue is whether the UK parliament at a future date can vote to leave the UK wide customs union with the EU - or will we be forced to remain in it forever unless the EU agrees otherwise. Its perhaps the difference between a vassal state and a democracy. A nation that neither sets its trade policy independently nor has a say in how that trade policy is decided isn't really much of a nation.

Indeed. Need to wait for the leaks on that, the RTE leak is sketchy, although it claims a mechanism is in there, which means non-permanent...

 

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10 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Yes, I agree, let's break up the ill-conceived United States of America too. We'll soon see how California does compared to Mississippi.

They have never been separate countries - which is perhaps the difference. Canada, the US and Mexico have a free trade agreement - they don't have common laws set by an independent Commission, freedom of movement. a common parliament and more. Cos you don't need those to have free trade.

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47 minutes ago, thehowler said:

I'm sure you and I will be scanning every line, CofVIs!

The yapping tonight from several camps seems a bit premature, want to see what's been said on mechanism, if any, to end backstop.

Quite a concession from the EU to give us the UK-wide, though they must have eyes on the long game.

Pressure on MPs just to get us out and to transition is going to be extraordinary.

Many years ago I used to have a role in reviewing complex multi national contracts, on a good day the team could get through 10 or even 20 pages, on a bad day maybe 1 or 2.

All that is possible to honestly do in the time available to the cabinet is to decide it is unacceptable. 

Do we even know which language will have legal effect. There seems to be a presumption that it is the English translation but I haven't seen this confirmed anywhere.  

   

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12 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Many years ago I used to have a role in reviewing complex multi national contracts, on a good day the team could get through 10 or even 20 pages, on a bad day maybe 1 or 2.

All that is possible to honestly do in the time available to the cabinet is to decide it is unacceptable. 

Do we even know which language will have legal effect. There seems to be a presumption that it is the English translation but I haven't seen this confirmed anywhere.  

   

Perhaps the versions in French (for Barnier), Gaelic (for the Irish government official record) and English (for the UK) might be worded in subtlely different ways.

Vassal apparently originates from an old Gaelic/Celtic word which then became used in Old French and evenutally English. It essentially means someone who pays £39 billion over and gets nothing for it!

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8 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Perhaps the versions in French (for Barnier), Gaelic (for the Irish government official record) and English (for the UK) might be worded in subtlely different ways.

Vassal apparently originates from an old Gaelic/Celtic word which then became used in Old French and evenutally English. It essentially means someone who pays £39 billion over and gets nothing for it!

LOL

i am going to remember £39b every time i hear Vassal

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7 hours ago, kzb said:

Certainly we have Spanish dental companies providing NHS services.  My partner used to go to one of these.

I encouraged her to change practices, because it seemed to us they were milking the system, using every trick in the book to maximise income. 

Having said that there is probably nothing unique in that, once you let in private healthcare providers it is inevitable.  Just that the profits will go to Spain.

I guess that in a nutshell is why the Tufton st mob are licking their lips over Brexit.

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6 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Looks like May is finished.

The deal won't be voted for and a no deal isn't on the cards either.

 

It's now a choice...........A Peoples Vote or a General Election.

 

Take your pick...............

That's what you maybe wish for.

I think, now is higher chance than before that the Brexit deal will go through.

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8 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Looks like May is finished.

The deal won't be voted for and a no deal isn't on the cards either.

 

It's now a choice...........A Peoples Vote or a General Election.

 

Take your pick...............

Err, there won't be either, no deal and no election, 

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1 minute ago, rollover said:

That's what you maybe wish for.

I think, now is higher chance than before that the Brexit deal will go through.

Well Labour will vote against it to try and get an election, the DUP do not appear to accept it at all, and a few hardline tory mps may vote against, so no bill.

But labour won't get an election so as usual our selfish politicians are going to end up with something they don't want and the people of the country don't want.

All because the eu wouldn't be a little bit flexible on the Irish boarder.

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11 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

Looks like May is finished.

The deal won't be voted for and a no deal isn't on the cards either.

 

It's now a choice...........A Peoples Vote or a General Election.

 

Take your pick...............

As long as there's a clear way to get out of the backstop, I think it'll pass.

The hard core can stamp their feet as much as they want, but if they want Brexit they've got nothing else to offer that fixes NI in the eyes of the EU/27.

I suppose it would help if Barnier announced later this week that this is the firm and final offer and the EU has no interest in extending Art 50...

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1 minute ago, Social Justice League said:

We will see over the next few days, but it looks to many on-lookers like no one wants May's deal.

A no deal isn't on the cards either, so let's have a peoples vote so that we can all vote to stay in the European Union.

Everyones a winner.  May more then most.

Yes, but when would this people's vote take place and what would happen in the meantime.

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On 18/04/2017 at 13:45, Shamus said:

Brexit - ha ha the Tories have bottled it.

It was always going to be Hard Brexit or No Brexit.  Hard Brexit being too unpalatable to most of the establishment (and most of the UK workers). 

Europe have got us by the balls and they know it!

So a General Election or a new Referendum first?  Votes please :)

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3 minutes ago, Shamus said:
On 18/04/2017 at 13:45, Shamus said:

 

So a General Election or a new Referendum first?  Votes please :)

Too early to say. No resignations yet. If the deal's not as catastrophically bad as the remainers are claiming - not having seen it - their cause is sunk.

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