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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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2 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Reasonable point. Maybe I should have said that people percieve that Brexit will be a loss in the future.

 A lot of people including myself think that staying in the EU will be very expensive in the future , due to state of the German Banks needing to be bailed out in time. Which will lead to financial collapse in many poorer EU countries. However that is just our opinions no body knows. I also believe that due to extreme levels of government and personnel debt that the UK is going to be in for a very rough ride in the next decade , Brexit or no Brexit but no doubt Brexit will get the blame not the debt. 

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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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17 hours ago, highYield said:

Disagree. The bitrate is already HD video capable for nearly everyone in the UK - few who do anything useful really need more (High Frequency trading is the only (kind of pointless) exception I can think of).

The future is not bandwidth, most bandwidth is used by consumers for Hollywood movies and porn (there's some crazy figures on how much of the available bandwidth is consumed by video porn)  - IMO, it's intellectual property. The enormous advances over the past decade in home CNC machining capacity can easily be projected into the next couple of decades - and the obvious conclusion is that the IP behind the local manufacturing will generate the wealth of the future (and perhaps moreover those who sell the picks & shovels of the home manufacturing rush).

Wealth isn't generated by consuming, but by producing - or enabling / profiting from production.

That is one of the reasons why we need ultra fast Broadband,  the high end digital manufacturing you refer to generates vast amounts of data (mostly related to  use of the design and modeling tools that support the creation of the digital print files).

HD is already old hat, 4k will need 4x the data and will be followed by 8k needing 16x the data  

Add to that the ultra high bit rates required to create the telepresence services (and soon virtual worlds) that enable widely spaced teams to collaborate effectively without spending half their time travelling to meetings and you soon realise that the current service is hopelessly inadequate for even the near future.

Before long Gigabit connectivity will be the minimum requirement and if we are going to spend money on infrastructure this is where it should  go.

  

Edited by Confusion of VIs
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1 hour ago, Greg Bowman said:

Ok advice: by the way I voted remain as I just said so hardly a flag waving Brexiteer though it would be a Union Jack not the St George’s flag.

Here we go :

The estimates for economic impact (negatively some are positive but doesn’t fit the fecking hell meme) are between 0 - 10%

My view is that is a blip even towards 10% in 2007-8 our gdp went down 3% in one quarter or over 10% you have seen it before so no big deal

But more importantly your own personal success is based on no more than four  or five  factors 

1. Your appetite for risk

2. Your work ethic

3. Your luck

4. Your health 

5. Your life choices

You can choose to prosper whatever happens - your choice

I agree with all of that advice on a personal level and certainly focussing on the minutiae of Brexit isn't a good use of anyone's time (which is why it's a waste of time in general), however, the minutiae aren't going away, and while it might be nice on some levels to just get Brexit over with, it just isn't that simple.

We can't put a customs border between NI and Ireland.  We can't put a customs border in the Irish sea.  Ergo we can't leave the customs union.  Whatever the economic consequences of Brexit, the political consequences will mean the collapse of the UK state.

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24 minutes ago, highYield said:

Very much agree. All we need is the raw materials from the Americas & Africa as a base to add value. Hopefully we'll be able to ship them directly to Liverpool, avoiding the Dutch middlemen taking their slice.

The western world has probably already reached peak stuff. 

From here on most of the value add will be purely digital or from the provision of services. I saw a report a while ago that more than 50% of the cost of the latest model BMW's now relates to the services and software required to produce it.

NB This is a Brexit problem as while we will probably get a tariff free trade agreement covering goods this will not cover the export of services, which are a major part of any complex supply chain. 

 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That is one of the reasons why we need ultra fast Broadband,  the high end digital manufacturing you refer to generates vast amounts of data (mostly related to  use of the design and modeling tools that support the creation of the digital print files).

HD is already old hat, 4k will need 4x the data and will be followed by 8k needing 16x the data  

Add to that the ultra high bit rates required to create the telepresence services (and soon virtual worlds) that enable widely spaced teams to collaborate effectively without spending half their time travelling to meetings and you soon realise that the current service is hopelessly inadequate for even the near future.

Before long Gigabit connectivity will be the minimum requirement and if we are going to spend money on infrastructure this is where it should go.

  

Bandwidth is for consumption - largely of movies & porn.

The huge resultant expansion of bandwidth is more than the relatively few producers need to enable their work. The file sizes needed for e.g. CAD/CAM are really very tiny in comparison. VR is largely a package of XYZ coordinates mixed in with photos, rather than video - if the network can handle the current huge porn video demand, we're a large way there already.

The fly in the ointment may be the US' recent decisions re: net neutrality.

OT - but why has HPC decided to spam us every time anyone replies to a comment? - we spend enough time here already!

edit: how do we turn the spam off?

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5 minutes ago, highYield said:

Bandwidth is for consumption - largely of movies & porn.

The huge resultant expansion of bandwidth is more than the relatively few producers need to enable their work. The file sizes needed for e.g. CAD/CAM are really very tiny in comparison. VR is largely a package of XYZ coordinates mixed in with photos, rather than video - if the network can handle the current huge porn video demand, we're a large way there already.

The fly in the ointment may be the US' recent decisions re: net neutrality.

OT - but why has HPC decided to spam us every time anyone replies to a comment? - we spend enough time here already!

Porn was a major driver in the early days of the internet, but ceased to be long ago.

You are wrong about this apart from the Virgin fibre Network almost all of the UK's home Broadband network will need replacing to meet near future demand.   

Netflix already recommends a 25MB connection for watching 4k films. 8k will need 100MB

4k 60FPS gaming will need a near 100MB connection to run smoothly,   

The modelling software used to design, test and refine prototypes generates huge amounts of data - can be in the terabyte range for complex components.    

 

 

 

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On 02/01/2018 at 11:02 PM, highYield said:

The UK Land Workers Alliance has great alternatives to blowing half the EU's budget on subsidising large landowners: https://landworkersalliance.org.uk - they have an interesting relevant publication: Recommendations for Post-Brexit Agricultural Policy

edit: quote from their Post Brexit recommendations:

 

Thanks. :)

This quote is interesting too:

Quote

...Mr Gove went on to confirm for the first time that direct payments to the UK’s largest landowners will be reduced following this parliament.  The Secretary’s announcement comes days after a report released by Greenpeace UKidentified that one in five of the UK’s top 100 CAP  recipients also feature in the Sunday Times Rich List...

https://landworkersalliance.org.uk/2017/07/the-landworkers-alliance-welcome-secretary-of-states-support-for-gmo-labelling-and-commitment-to-reduce-area-payments/

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14 hours ago, jonb2 said:

:blink: Sequencing....

Quote

...

The EU has stipulated that Mrs May cannot sign new deals with other nations until Brexit talks have concluded. 

In a good-humoured exchange Mr Turnbull said: "As Britain moves to completing its exit from the EU, we stand ready to enter into a free trade agreement with the UK as soon as the UK is able to do so...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/10/australian-pm-says-wont-muck-around-wants-free-trade-deal-uk/

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29 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Porn was a major driver in the early days of the internet, but ceased to be long ago.

You are wrong about this apart from the Virgin fibre Network almost all of the UK's home Broadband network will need replacing to meet near future demand.   

Netflix already recommends a 25MB connection for watching 4k films. 8k will need 100MB

4k 60FPS gaming will need a near 100MB connection to run smoothly,   

The modelling software used to design, test and refine prototypes generates huge amounts of data - can be in the terabyte range for complex components.    

Nearly of the above is bandwidth for consumer consumption, reinforcing my point.

The sole exception in the above is prototype modelling - but the terabytes don't get sent too much over the interwebs, as it'd be core IP for the company in question, and they would be foolish to broadcast it endlessly & needlessly round and around. Maybe they'd have to do an entire encrypted transmission with a period of a week or so, but it would be wiser for them to only share the tiny subset of any changes between distributed teams.

An acquaintance of mine quit IBM about 15 years ago to work for a teleconferencing startup. Your discovery of 'telepresence' is a decade behind the times - wohoo! facetime - kind of akin to a company that decides to outsource IT functions to Poland in..... 2017!

Very old ideas, just with higher resolution - and therefore higher bandwidth.

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5 hours ago, pig said:

:lol: Nice effort !

But I'll raise you an INVASION OF BROWN PEOPLE :o !!!:

Or how about leave.eu's INVASION OF SNAKES :o :o :o!!! ?:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3583408/Leave-EU-Brexit-campaign-slammed-sharing-ugly-xenophobic-video-using-Donald-Trump-speech-violent-images-make-disgusting-warning-migrants.html

FFS In your head is this seriously all just a remoaner narrative lol ?

 

:lol: Poor effort! 

On 30/12/2017 at 10:42 PM, Sheeple Splinter said:

Even if Juncker endorses Farage's message?

Image result for farage poster

Why do you label migrants as "Brown People"?

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30 minutes ago, highYield said:

Nearly of the above is bandwidth for consumer consumption, reinforcing my point.

The sole exception in the above is prototype modelling - but the terabytes don't get sent too much over the interwebs, as it'd be core IP for the company in question, and they would be foolish to broadcast it endlessly & needlessly round and around. Maybe they'd have to do an entire encrypted transmission with a period of a week or so, but it would be wiser for them to only share the tiny subset of any changes between distributed teams.

An acquaintance of mine quit IBM about 15 years ago to work for a teleconferencing startup. Your discovery of 'telepresence' is a decade behind the times - wohoo! facetime - kind of akin to a company that decides to outsource IT functions to Poland in..... 2017!

Very old ideas, just with higher resolution - and therefore higher bandwidth.

Yes old ideas updated for today, that's how most things work and yes the consumer will drive the requirement for higher speeds. 

I don't really understand where you are coming from on this, it's certainly not from any understanding of what is driving the demand for higher speeds, are you perhaps a stereotypical Leaver who thinks everything was so much better back in the 50s. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I did but admittedly it was over a thousand pages ago, so not surprising is no one remembers.

As I spent a fair bit of my career working in Europe or for the Commission I have two Euro pensions and even a small Zloty one. All instantly increased in value by around 10% on the night of the referendum vote and now stand about 15% higher . In addition my UK SIPP benefited from the exchange rate effect on the multinational companies in the FTSE.    

  

 

Ah ok I forgot about that. At least your upfront about your VI in remain.

Kid at uni in the EU.

EU pensions.

Used to work for the EU commission.

Someone earlier asked me to describe to them what "skin on the game meant". Whoever that was - please see the above !! 

6 hours ago, IMHAL said:

If you will pardon me for saying this and I mean this with the least offence possible. Its a ballony arguement.

Please read the what is written below carefully.

Brexit represents loss for 99% of the people and therefore the option to 1) take a loss and 2) vote remain does not exist for............. 99% of the people who voted remain........just maybe, perhaps and all that.

But try finding those who voted Leave and took a loss and ......viola.... they are everywhere.... I wonder why :rolleyes:

So, trying to find someone who 1) voted remain and 2) would have taken a loss because of it - is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.

So the real reason the Brexiters appear 'altruistic' is because Brexit represents loss for the overwhelming majority of the British population - no really altruism, or some strong morals, just the fact that Brexit is a disaster economically.

(Caveat: Except for perhaps those few with Euro or other external holding not affected by the fckfest that is Brexit.)

Nobody knows. Done think it will be good for us - others the opposite. We must have been through this hundreds of times already on this thread.

6 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Not a loss for me. I have mortgage debt that will be eroded by the falling Pound while my assets priced internationally increase in value. I have an EU passport, educated with in demand skills. I plan on living in Europe in due course. I think I could do very well from brexit.

I voted remain not for my own interests (at least not short term ones) but because I believe in the social ideals of the EU. I want a less divided world and I want everyone to have similar opportunities to make better lives for themselves across 28 (27...) countries, rather than just rich educated people. 

Another with skin on the game. Very clear pattern here.

6 hours ago, Insane said:

That is just your prediction , no one including yourself knows the future.

You've got this wrong - Mr IMHAL owns a time machine !! Keep up please :)

24 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Tony Blair:  "There was a reason why Farage was pictured in front of a big poster with a line of Syrian refugees, not a line of French, Italian or Polish workers."

Please, please never again quote Blair when trying to make a point. :D

And for the record that picture is from Slovenia. 

Slovenia would be the 6th or 7th "safe" country any real refugee leaving Syria would come to. So whatever way you look at it - they're not refugees - in that picture they are migrants.

Shock horror - Blair was bullshitting.

Who would have guessed.

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5 hours ago, ccc said:

You've got this wrong - Mr IMHAL owns a time machine !! Keep up please :)
 

See, I thought that when I responded to you original post, you where refering to some point in the future by saying 'TO LOSE'  ........ as in a future tense...let me see if I can find it........yes you where.... here it is......

 

16 hours ago, ccc said:

You have completely missed the point. 

Many who voted Brexit have skin on the game TO LOSE By us leaving. But still voted for it as they think it's best for the UK. 

I've yet to hear a single remain voter the same. Not one. Online or in real life. 

 

Obviously your time machine works and mine does'nt. Funny - but not at all suprising behaviour from you.

When you see logic, try debate, bluster does not work. I see a strong pattern emerging.

 

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12 hours ago, IMHAL said:

If you will pardon me for saying this and I mean this with the least offence possible. Its a ballony arguement.

Please read the what is written below carefully.

Brexit represents loss for 99% of the people and therefore the option to 1) take a loss and 2) vote remain does not exist for............. 99% of the people who voted remain........just maybe, perhaps and all that.

But try finding those who voted Leave and took a loss and ......viola.... they are everywhere.... I wonder why :rolleyes:

So, trying to find someone who 1) voted remain and 2) would have taken a loss because of it - is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.

So the real reason the Brexiters appear 'altruistic' is because Brexit represents loss for the overwhelming majority of the British population - no really altruism, or some strong morals, just the fact that Brexit is a disaster economically.

(Caveat: Except for perhaps those few with Euro or other external holding not affected by the fckfest that is Brexit.)

This is your post that was replied to by another - that I then made the time machine comment on.

Because you were referring to things that have happened. You know - the past tense ?

Your debating skills are atrocious.

I shall happily help you along with your understanding of basic English though. Glad to be of service. 

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10 hours ago, IMHAL said:

Reasonable point. Maybe I should have said that people percieve that Brexit will be a loss in the future. After all, we can only go on the information we have now, the trade deals that we currently have in the bag...and the liklyhood of a good outcome from the EU ..which at the moment is not good.

It could of course all miraculously change........who knows......the signs are not looking good tho.

You have even happily admitted the point made by insane was a reasonable one and you perhaps should have worded it differently.

You either have serious memory issues or poor organisational skills or both. :lol:

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6 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

Tony Blair:  "There was a reason why Farage was pictured in front of a big poster with a line of Syrian refugees, not a line of French, Italian or Polish workers."

Seriously, Blair?

The scumbag who killed millions of 'brown' people over a lie for the MIC?

He's chastising Farage?

He can go ****** himself.

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45 minutes ago, ccc said:

This is your post that was replied to by another - that I then made the time machine comment on.

Because you were referring to things that have happened. You know - the past tense ?

Your debating skills are atrocious.

I shall happily help you along with your understanding of basic English though. Glad to be of service. 

:lol:

You are just trying to distract that it was you who originally brought up the issue in the future tense. I was using my time machine just as you where using yours. To discuss.... you know......Brexit.... what happens next......which is the title of this thread.

Maybe you should start a new thread call "Brexit what just happend before?" - then you would be in your element.

New years resolution - I won't waste my time on time wasters who have their own personal time machines - thats you.

Edited by IMHAL
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1 hour ago, Maynardgravy said:

Seriously, Blair?

The scumbag who killed millions of 'brown' people over a lie for the MIC?

He's chastising Farage?

He can go ****** himself.

Indeed. 

I'm going to go see if I can fund any Pol Pot quotes to back up my views on Brexit....

Actually I won't. Because that would be pretty stupid. :lol:

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11 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

4k 60FPS gaming will need a near 100MB connection to run smoothly,  

Gaming doesn't need much bandwidth, although it does need low latency. The graphics stay on the machine you're playing on, the only bit of kit that needs the bandwidth to handle them is the lead between the machine and the display, which isn't a network connection.

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