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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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9 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

Sigh, you have, by commenting on me laughing at being called an extremist, you then went on to ask why I found that funny, then listed my 'extreme' views, then compared them to Farage; that's when you lost any shred of credibility you had.

And again, I am not a Europhile, I believe I am a European - One is to admire the place, one is to consider you are from the place.  I am genuinely hoping you can get you head around this concept.  You're trying to tie me to a box you have in your head, but the concept of being a Europhile is 'someone who likes the place and believes we should be members of the EU'.  I don't, I actually want to have a complete political union.

1) You really, really, really are struggling aren't you.  So my German friend will lose his entire Identity when Europe integrates into a political union will he?  The Catalonians will lose their identity?  My French neighbours in Landes will cease being Basque?  No, they will not.  It isn't mutually exclusive.  When England integrated with Scotland many moons ago, did the folk of Wiltshire lose their identity?  Kent?  How about highlanders?  Did the Northern Irish then lose theirs when we aligned?  I also suggested many times, that we should split into more appropriate regions, and have local representations who were part of the region they represent: I was quite clear in this, so it's no surprise you ignored this.  But you carry on with your straw man.

2) There are Europhiles, then there are people like me, who don't consider themselves to be Europhiles, they consider themselves far more than that.  You're wrong on many levels.

Three quarters of Euro denominated business is cleared in London, 83,000 jobs involved and worth around £80bn a year (City AM).  It clears around £750bn a day.  That will all be gone.

It is a big thing.

The financial and professional services industry in London, which includes clearing is worth £175bn.  That's everything.  Around 11% of the economy.  It runs a £70bn trade surplus, and is the UK largest export.   It's a significant tax take for the treasury as well, the largest tax paying sector at around 11.5% (City AM).

You can dismiss it if you like, but that's a sizeable chunk, some 40% of banking/trading done in the UK.  It isn't minuscule, it's massive.

There is only one clearer in London and that is LCH. It doesn't employ 83,000 people, I know because I work with them. Nor do they turnover £80 bn a year, more like 376m euro for 2016 in clearing fees across all currencies. 

http://www.lch.com/documents/731485/762550/2016_Group_Accounts_for_website.pdf/4d998b1e-9843-4104-93da-5e52e140e2c6

You then say "The financial and professional services industry in London, which includes clearing is worth £175bn.  That's everything.  Around 11% of the economy.  It runs a £70bn trade surplus, and is the UK largest export.   It's a significant tax take for the treasury as well, the largest tax paying sector at around 11.5% (City AM)." which is very true.

But then you say "You can dismiss it if you like, but that's a sizeable chunk, some 40% of banking/trading done in the UK.  It isn't minuscule, it's massive." - again, I am talking about trading, not clearing.- you have not made the case how trading will be affected by any decision of the EU. 

 

 

 

Edited by moneyscam
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I do.   https://twitter.com/housepricemania

1409 pages....you guys should have your own forum !!!

Oh OK. Shame that really, but hey it looks like @IMHAL helped us both out. Nice repost though, thanks ! Any thoughts ?  

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2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Hasn't anyone on here yet discovered that being in this thread makes ferk-all difference to anything?

Holy sh1te both camps on here come across as utter losers for humanity. I've seen 4 year olds with more poise.

Let's see if anyone who has posted on this thread in the last 24 hours can leave it alone for 48 hours.

Your life will be better for it. Honestly.

I think this is mainly true. But as HOB1 said - it's a howling at the moon. No reason to do it - but you feel slightly better afterwards.

There is no outlet for remainers, it's just shit against a brick wall and leavers seem to be very angry too. Not happy with their win. Result!

The country is now divided and will remain so for a very long time. As a remainer, I will never 'get over it' as I think it's stupid and not what I want for my family and me. It's not a football match. It is not a four year decision that can be changed - it's forever. I will not 'get with the program' (what program?).

Time to consider splitting England into two geographic regions. Let the other parts of the union go too. Model ourselves on The Czech Republic and Slovakia. Get rid of this gangrenous parliament - turn Westminster into flats as another poster suggested. 

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6 hours ago, ExiledMatty said:

Whats not to like?

Getting less back than you put in.

Having millions of the great unwashed from EE turn up claiming benefits and generally taking the piss.

Being forced to be part of a German empire.

I certainly love it - it’s a bit like you’re living in your own version of the ‘Man in the High Castle’   in your head :lol:

 

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8 hours ago, IMHAL said:

Someone who know what they are talking about.

So why are the banks threatening job losses and to move abroad? Hoe does it relate to passporting? What do you think the impact will be and what angle are you coming from?  

 

Passporting is an issue primarily for the US and Asian investment banks that use London as a hub for Europe. What is passporting? Passporting is when you have a regulated entity in say France and you want to open an office in Germany. Passporting allows you to open the office in Germany without going through the heavy regulatory checks as if you were setting up from scratch. There are still some checks but the process is much faster. Passporting also allows you to offer cross-border services from your home hub.

Passporting will in theory no longer be available when Britain leaves the EU. However any UK based firm will still have the ability to open a EU territory fully capitalised subsidiary and carry on doing the majority of what they were doing from London. Obviously some jobs will move as the subsidiary will have to have some substance (trading, compliance, risk management) at the local level.

It's not as simply as some people think for the foreign banks to just move wholesale out of London. There are 600 foreign banks in London and not Paris or Frankfurt for 2 main reasons.

1) English law and courts

2) Liquidity

English law and their courts is the main reason the City is what it is. It is the most investor friendly and protecting in the world and the main draw of London. It cannot be overstated how important this is. This will be enhanced rather than diminished post Brexit.

Liquidity is important for obvious reasons - Paris or Frankfurt simply are not large enough or developed enough to supplant London. They could but it would take them at least 2 decades.

 

What's my angle? Will Brexit have some negative impact on the City? Of course it will. Will the UK lose 5% of GDP as a result? No, that is a clear exaggeration.

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1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

Passporting is an issue primarily for the US and Asian investment banks that use London as a hub for Europe. What is passporting? Passporting is when you have a regulated entity in say France and you want to open an office in Germany. Passporting allows you to open the office in Germany without going through the heavy regulatory checks as if you were setting up from scratch. There are still some checks but the process is much faster. Passporting also allows you to offer cross-border services from your home hub.

Passporting will in theory no longer be available when Britain leaves the EU. However any UK based firm will still have the ability to open a EU territory fully capitalised subsidiary and carry on doing the majority of what they were doing from London. Obviously some jobs will move as the subsidiary will have to have some substance (trading, compliance, risk management) at the local level.

It's not as simply as some people think for the foreign banks to just move wholesale out of London. There are 600 foreign banks in London and not Paris or Frankfurt for 2 main reasons.

1) English law and courts

2) Liquidity

English law and their courts is the main reason the City is what it is. It is the most investor friendly and protecting in the world and the main draw of London. It cannot be overstated how important this is. This will be enhanced rather than diminished post Brexit.

Liquidity is important for obvious reasons - Paris or Frankfurt simply are not large enough or developed enough to supplant London. They could but it would take them at least 2 decades.

 

What's my angle? Will Brexit have some negative impact on the City? Of course it will. Will the UK lose 5% of GDP as a result? No, that is a clear exaggeration.

Thank you.

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4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Hasn't anyone on here yet discovered that being in this thread makes ferk-all difference to anything?

Holy sh1te both camps on here come across as utter losers for humanity. I've seen 4 year olds with more poise.

Let's see if anyone who has posted on this thread in the last 24 hours can leave it alone for 48 hours.

Your life will be better for it. Honestly.

It's been fun sitting back and not posting much for a day or so. :)

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3 hours ago, ddd said:

You've showed your true colours in this thread for all to read with your attitude towards immigrants and females, so yes you did get it right. 

Joined on Friday just after midnight. :rolleyes: Apparently been reading this thread for over a year. :rolleyes: Names themselves 'DDD' :rolleyes:

6 posts so far.

3 of them saying that I am racist and sexist and have issues.

:rolleyes::lol:

Which one are you ? My guess would be Hairyboy but who knows. Very poor attempt at trolling. If you are going to do it at least ATTEMPT to make it vaguely subtle.

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17 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

So, as already discussed, all Euro denominated trades will have to be performed inside the borders of the EU from now on (1).  Banks are already moving staff over to the major European hubs. (2)

Transactions are simply not done in 'cash', and haven't been for years. (3)

De La Rue have their production inside the EU in Malta (4)

(1) Seems doubtful to me, free-world currencies are traded internationally.  What do others think?

(2) As far as limited Googling can take me, London accounts for 37% of foreign exchange trading.  Then New York (19%),  Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong combined are 21%.  No EU country gets a mention in foreign-exchange trading league table.

(3) Yes I have to hold my hand up.  The percentage of cash transactions is apparently 85%, not 90%, as my friend stated.  Also interesting that one-third of the world population do not have bank accounts.

http://www.delarue.com/markets-and-solutions/cash-supply-chain

(4)  They have sites all over the world but the point is it's British

http://www.delarue.com/about-us/our-locations

So it's all very interesting, never thought about all this before. 

Edited by kzb
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This was broken by the Telegraph, but suggestion that the divorce bill for Brexit May be agreed at £57bn. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/uk-and-eu-agree-brexit-divorce-bill-that-could-reach-57bn

Of course it will be more than this, as £57bn is what they’ll admit to. There will presumably be charges for using the ECJ and various other pan European organisations like Euratom.

I reckon Brexit is going to cost nearer £90bn directly and £700bn indirectly.

To me this is a good reason to have another referendum - the fiscally incontinent Brexiters just keep cr@pping out money.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein
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8 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

This was broken by the Telegraph, but suggestion that the divorce bill for Brexit May be agreed at £57bn. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/uk-and-eu-agree-brexit-divorce-bill-that-could-reach-57bn

Of course it will be more than this, as £57bn is what they’ll admit to. There will presumably be charges for using the ECJ and various other pan European organisations like Euratom.

I reckon Brexit is going to cost nearer £90bn directly and £700bn indirectly.

To me this is a good reason to have another referendum - the fiscally incontinent Brexiters just keep cr@pping out money.

But Pretty Patel said we can just tell them to sod off.

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13 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Passporting is an issue primarily for the US and Asian investment banks that use London as a hub for Europe. What is passporting? Passporting is when you have a regulated entity in say France and you want to open an office in Germany. Passporting allows you to open the office in Germany without going through the heavy regulatory checks as if you were setting up from scratch. There are still some checks but the process is much faster. Passporting also allows you to offer cross-border services from your home hub.

Passporting will in theory no longer be available when Britain leaves the EU. However any UK based firm will still have the ability to open a EU territory fully capitalised subsidiary and carry on doing the majority of what they were doing from London. Obviously some jobs will move as the subsidiary 1. will have to have some substance (trading, compliance, risk management) at the local level.

It's not as simply as some people think for the foreign banks to just move wholesale out of London. There are 600 foreign banks in London and not Paris or Frankfurt for 2 main reasons.

1) English law and courts

2) Liquidity

2. English law and their courts is the main reason the City is what it is. It is the most investor friendly and protecting in the world and the main draw of London. It cannot be overstated how important this is. This will be enhanced rather than diminished post Brexit.

Liquidity is important for obvious reasons - Paris or Frankfurt simply are not large enough or developed enough to supplant London.

3. They could but it would take them at least 2 decades.

 

What's my angle? Will Brexit have some negative impact on the City? Of course it will. Will the UK lose 5% of GDP as a result? No, that is a clear exaggeration.

1 The EU are going to demand quite a lot of substance is transferred. I have just returned from a week in Warsaw looking at potential locations for moving IT and back office staff to as part of setting up an EU presence as expect the bar to be set very high.   BTW The rate of development in Warsaw since I was last there three years ago is amazing, most of the major financial companies seem to now have a significant presence there, the choice/quality of restaurants and hotels have massively improved. Even better you can easily find great beer (both craft beer and imported Czech beers).     

2  True but there is a real possibility of both limits being applied to referring cases to the English courts and of cases being decided under English law by the French courts.

3 The EU states know and are planning for this.

 

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17 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Hasn't anyone on here yet discovered that being in this thread makes ferk-all difference to anything?

Holy sh1te both camps on here come across as utter losers for humanity. I've seen 4 year olds with more poise.

Let's see if anyone who has posted on this thread in the last 24 hours can leave it alone for 48 hours.

Your life will be better for it. Honestly.

 

14 hours ago, dryrot said:

Welcome to the internet! :)

duty_calls.png

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2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

This was broken by the Telegraph, but suggestion that the divorce bill for Brexit May be agreed at £57bn. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/uk-and-eu-agree-brexit-divorce-bill-that-could-reach-57bn

Of course it will be more than this, as £57bn is what they’ll admit to. There will presumably be charges for using the ECJ and various other pan European organisations like Euratom.

I reckon Brexit is going to cost nearer £90bn directly and £700bn indirectly.

To me this is a good reason to have another referendum - the fiscally incontinent Brexiters just keep cr@pping out money.

Providing the UK drops its insistence on achieving a clean break, the final price will be around the £35-45bn mark (upper end is if we get stung for the RAL overspend) plus around £7bn pensions paid over the next 50yrs and maybe £5bn for other contingent liabilities (as most will never materialise).  Of course it will be subject to both index linking and the £/Euro exchange rate. 

As the citizen rights issue is now close to agreement (the EU will probably agree some sort of face saving fudge on the EC0J) the only really sticky issue left is the Irish border. I have no idea how this can be resolved without us staying in the single market/customs union.     

As I have been saying from the outset, A50 is a process not a negotiation and eventually we would agree to pay all of our liabilities. At the time this was dismissed as fantasy by many of the leavers on here, I notice they have gone very quiet on this now.

    

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Not sure how this can be the case, given that we hold all the cards, but it appears the UK has been pwned!

Financial_Times.png.3943f66f2e4a42f837ee138638519d8f.png

This is probably fake news but...

Brexit talks: for all Britain's bluster, the EU has it over a barrel

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/brexit-talks-for-all-britains-bluster-the-eu-has-it-over-a-barrel

"Michel Barnier no longer even pretends he is in negotiation with Britain, preferring to describe his demands for sufficient progress on these issues as a series of immovable legal hurdles."

:lol:

Now, about that £350 million a week for the NHS...

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6 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Has Arlene given Theresa her orders yet?  A billion here, a billion there ....it soon mounts up you know.

The rumour is that the UK has capitulated big stylee on the "divorce settlement" in order to avoid having to leave NI in the customs unions which would upset the DUP and therefore destabilize May's fragile, enfeebled government.

Which if true, means the DUP has cost the UK taxpayer something to the tune of £20-30bn. Or in leaver terms, enough to build around 35 state-of-the art new NHS hospitals.

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2 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

The rumour is that the UK has capitulated big stylee on the "divorce settlement" in order to avoid having to leave NI in the customs unions which would upset the DUP and therefore destabilize May's fragile, enfeebled government.

Which if true, means the DUP has cost the UK taxpayer something to the tune of £20-30bn. Or in leaver terms, enough to build around 35 state-of-the art new NHS hospitals.

That £20-£30bn would have been wasted anyway.

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A minor divergence, but while the real economy struggles (making a selling stuff, doing stuff for people), there is at least some good news this morning:

Value of UK's housing stock soars past £6tn

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn#comment-108939110

"Biggest rises of the past decade seen in London and the south-east, with the over-55s holding almost two-thirds of the wealth"

Hmmm, I wonder how Brexit will address this? :blink: If you don't own a home, you'd better hope it does because the big Brex is going to cause a decade long distraction from every other issue. "Sorry guv, no money for council houses, got Brexit to pay for avven't I".

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26 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

The rumour is that the UK has capitulated big stylee on the "divorce settlement" in order to avoid having to leave NI in the customs unions which would upset the DUP and therefore destabilize May's fragile, enfeebled government.

Which if true, means the DUP has cost the UK taxpayer something to the tune of £20-30bn. Or in leaver terms, enough to build around 35 state-of-the art new NHS hospitals.

It still doesn't solve the Ireland issue. 

Either we all stay in the single market (via the EEA) or we let NI have some sort of special status within both the single market and the UK customs union.  Anything else will badly damage both Eire and NI.      

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1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It still doesn't solve the Ireland issue. 

Sorry, I should have been clearer. No it doesn't solve the Ireland issue - it merely allows them to defer it. The solution is still probably going to be NI staying in the customs union, but I would imagine they (the Tories) are hoping to strengthen their position (new election?, new leader?, new coalition partners?) before the decision has to be made. Diluting the influence of the DUP.

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On 11/28/2017 at 8:44 AM, moneyscam said:

There is only one clearer in London and that is LCH. It doesn't employ 83,000 people, I know because I work with them. Nor do they turnover £80 bn a year, more like 376m euro for 2016 in clearing fees across all currencies. 

http://www.lch.com/documents/731485/762550/2016_Group_Accounts_for_website.pdf/4d998b1e-9843-4104-93da-5e52e140e2c6

You then say "The financial and professional services industry in London, which includes clearing is worth £175bn.  That's everything.  Around 11% of the economy.  It runs a £70bn trade surplus, and is the UK largest export.   It's a significant tax take for the treasury as well, the largest tax paying sector at around 11.5% (City AM)." which is very true.

But then you say "You can dismiss it if you like, but that's a sizeable chunk, some 40% of banking/trading done in the UK.  It isn't minuscule, it's massive." - again, I am talking about trading, not clearing.- you have not made the case how trading will be affected by any decision of the EU. 

Three-quarters of euro-denominated business is cleared by houses in London, providing the city with 83,000 jobs and up to £80billion per year.

London currently clears £747billion worth of euro-denominated contracts every day, or three quarters of the global total.

Are you saying there's only one recognised clearing house in London?  If so, you bring the next statement under questions, as it's demonstrable there's far more, I can name 5 off the top of my head: CME, Euroclear, ICE, LCH and LME.

I don't think you know what you're on about, sorry, but everything I read clearly debunks what you're saying.

I am saying that around 40% of London's financial centre moolah comes form clearing, given that's about £80bn, it works out about 40% of our total money made in london and if we're losing that, it's a substantial amount of money.

Around 5,500 firms registered in the UK rely on the European Union's passporting rights for the financial services sector, and they turn over about £9 billion in revenue.

You've not even mentioned the potential loss of passporting, which is for all Euro denominated trades leaving the City too.  There are plenty of links saying Asset and Wealth management jobs will move from London in the event of a hard brexit too.

Quote

Around 5,500 firms registered in the UK rely on the European Union's passporting rights for the financial services sector, and they turn over about £9 billion in revenue. That is the universe of companies whose future is threatened when Britain leaves the European Union.

According to new figures from the Financial Conduct Authority, released by the House of Commons' Treasury Select Committee, 5,476 UK firms have at least one passport that allows them to do business in other EU and European Economic Area nations. Many firms hold several passports, meaning that the total number in the UK stands at 336,421.

The loss of passporting rights following Brexit is probably the biggest fear in the City of London right now. If the passport is taken away, then London could cease to be the most important financial centre in Europe, costing the UK thousands of jobs and billions in revenues.

Sorry, but I have to call you up on this

 

Edited by HairyOb1
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22 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I'm reading that that we've agreed to pay in excess of £100bn gross, regardless of getting a good deal?

Can't se May lasting the week with that kind of news.

You've fallen for the Fake News once again.  Just like the sentient animal vote fake news.

The net figure is reported widely as 45-55bn euros.  The exact amount is not yet agreed but the method calculating it is.  That is what is being reported.

Yes it is a lot, but then it is only a few years of ongoing EU contributions.  We'd be paying this over the next 5 years or so anyhow.

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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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